Avg winning mutuel: Weekdays v Weekends

[PhantomOnTour]

I have often wondered if the avg winning price on weekdays is different from weekends, when there is presumably "better racing" and more folks playing.

I am only interested in major tracks...
SAR - BEL - GP - CD - KEE - SA - DMR - FG

Anyone ever done a study/query of this?
Thx

[Ocala Mike]

My "feel" for this is that the single biggest correlation regarding avg. winning mutuels is avg. field size. If there were a correlation to the calendar, I still believe it would be explainable by the number of runners on those days.

[Augenj]

My "feel" for this is that the single biggest correlation regarding avg. winning mutuels is avg. field size. If there were a correlation to the calendar, I still believe it would be explainable by the number of runners on those days.
I have to agree with that after many years of banging away on data bases and just plain observation. However, I've also noticed (but haven't analyzed yet) that after two or more days between race days, it "seems" that there are more long shot win payoffs on the first day back. If this proves true, maybe it's due to track maintenance or maybe even to jockey "rust", a new term :D

[bks]

Very interesting idea. I know that in poker circles, weekends are regarded as easier pickings since more recreational money is in play. Would the same theory would hold for racing?

[thespaah]

Weekends at SAR, KEE and DMR see more 'recreational money'..
I have always maintained that the pencils at Saratoga are not quite as sharp as they are Downstate.
Although, 2013 at SAR the percentage of winning favorites was like 35%

[thespaah]

I have often wondered if the avg winning price on weekdays is different from weekends, when there is presumably "better racing" and more folks playing.

I am only interested in major tracks...
SAR - BEL - GP - CD - KEE - SA - DMR - FG

Anyone ever done a study/query of this?
Thx
Well.....I went ahead and did a sample chart.
Here's my methodology.
I used each track in your list. I used one week of each meeting.
To make it sort of fair, I used weeks when I thought each track would have been reasonably busy.
I did a simple excell spreadsheet
Here's the key
Date is the first day of the race week. I used weeks when there was racing on both Saturday and Sunday.
I used Pct winning favs. Pact In the money favs..Then you'll note a "WE" column. That indicates the same percentages on weekends.
Days represents the number of racing days in the week. Perf. represents the number of races that week.
Track week days/perf pct win fav pct fav ITM WE win WE ITM
SAR 8/4/2010 6days 62 27.4 62.9 31.8 68.1
GP 3/23/2013 5days 55 30.9 69 32 72
BEL 5/25/2014 5days 47 36.1 70.2 36.8 73.6
CD 5/13/2014 4days 39 28.2 71.7 25 60
KEE 4/6/2014 5days 48 22.9 62.5 23.8 52.3
DMR 8/4/2014 5days 43 39.5 65.1 42.1 63.1
FG 3/23/2014 5days 50 34 84 42.1 78.9

Sorry about the mess. For some reason this file was a ".xlsx" instead of a .xls
I don't know why this is. PA does not accept .xlsx files.
For clarity ....The first entry is SAR The week I used begins Aug 4th 2013
They raced 6 days and 62 races. Favs won 27.4% and ITM 62.9%
For the weekend days Favs won 31.8% and were ITM 68.1%
I hope this makes sense.

[Dave Schwartz]

I actually looked at this a long while back. This is from memory (and it could be faulty)...

1. The win pct of favs goes UP during the week because the races are less competitive.

2. The win pct of low odds horses (i.e. 3/1 and below) goes UP on weekends because the races are more competitive, but the winners are concentrated on the low 3 choices.

In other words, it is counter intuitive to what people would think.

[Milkshaker]

Intriguing question.

I see the post was originally about "major" tracks, but what about the opposite--i.e., a "minor" track that handles very little on a Saturday but because of a paucity of competition on a Tuesday, sees handle balloon to $1 mil+.

My guess is this would be where the long-term value would be if you beleived you had an edge by knowing the smaller circuit.

[whodoyoulike]

Well.....I went ahead and did a sample chart. ...

KEE 4/6/2014 5days 48 22.9 62.5 23.8 52.3 ...

I hope this makes sense.


Very clear, I think. Can you provide more data on Kee? Not the entire meet just a few more weeks. How long is their meet? What is the meet time frame?

Thanks.

[thaskalos]

I would wager heavily that the average winning mutuel is a lot smaller during the weekdays...because that's when the 6-horse fields dominate the racing cards.

[Ocala Mike]

I would wager heavily that the average winning mutuel is a lot smaller during the weekdays...because that's when the 6-horse fields dominate the racing cards.


Pretty much what I said, only perhaps stated a little better.

[rastajenk]

I question the premise that there are more short fields on weekdays, therefore I have to question the conclusion of Mike and thask. Also, Dave S mentioned that weeday racing is less competitive; that seems kind of subjective, how would that observation be quantified?

[classhandicapper]

I think it might be pretty hard to control for quality of horses, field size, surface, etc.. to isolate whether it's harder or easier to win on weekends or at some specific meets unless you have large database and some very good knowledge of statistics. Intuitively and based on empirical evidence, I think I do way better on weekends, at Saratoga, and on big race days (when there is a lot of recreational money) than I do when it's all the hard core players going head to head.

[thespaah]

Very clear, I think. Can you provide more data on Kee? Not the entire meet just a few more weeks. How long is their meet? What is the meet time frame?

Thanks.
Keeneland's meet are typically around 20 -22 race dates.
It's late now, but since I enjoy compiling stats, when I get a little time I can get the other 15 or so days. It's really no effort.

[thespaah]

I think it might be pretty hard to control for quality of horses, field size, surface, etc.. to isolate whether it's harder or easier to win on weekends or at some specific meets unless you have large database and some very good knowledge of statistics. Intuitively and based on empirical evidence, I think I do way better on weekends, at Saratoga, and on big race days (when there is a lot of recreational money) than I do when it's all the hard core players going head to head.
Here's the rub....Statistics can be compiled in such a way or in many ways to produce a predetermine outcome.
What seems to be happening here is some of posters here want to go deep into the study of percentages that one can wind up lost in a thicket of wild blackberries.
To compile the stats is certainly doable. It would take time.
You guys have to decide what it is you want to study.

[stu]

10 month window 9/1/2013 - 06/30/2014

Average winning price at Santa Anita

Monday $14.20
Tuesday N/A
Wednesday $10.80
Thursday $10.60
Friday $12.60
Saturday $13.20
Sunday $12.60

Average winning price at Gulfstream

Monday $15.40
Tuesday N/A
Wednesday $9.80
Thursday $12.40
Friday $11.70
Saturday $12.20
Sunday $13.50

Mondays Rule

[thaskalos]

I question the premise that there are more short fields on weekdays, therefore I have to question the conclusion of Mike and thask. Also, Dave S mentioned that weeday racing is less competitive; that seems kind of subjective, how would that observation be quantified?

Do you play the horses on the weekdays?

[rastajenk]

I don't play them at all anymore. But that doesn't affect my amazing powers of observation. :)

[thaskalos]

I don't play them at all anymore. But that doesn't affect my amazing powers of observation. :)

Somehow...I figured that out a while ago... :)

[whodoyoulike]

Keeneland's meet are typically around 20 -22 race dates.
It's late now, but since I enjoy compiling stats, when I get a little time I can get the other 15 or so days. It's really no effort.

I appreciate your efforts in this. I don't have the charts. I seldom play Kee probably because it's such a short meet. Isn't Kee the top track to bet in one of HANA's recent monthly newsletters?

Thanks,

[Cratos]

I have often wondered if the avg winning price on weekdays is different from weekends, when there is presumably "better racing" and more folks playing.

I am only interested in major tracks...
SAR - BEL - GP - CD - KEE - SA - DMR - FG

Anyone ever done a study/query of this?
Thx

Saratoga 2013

[thespaah]

I appreciate your efforts in this. I don't have the charts. I seldom play Kee probably because it's such a short meet. Isn't Kee the top track to bet in one of HANA's recent monthly newsletters?

Thanks,Here's a link
http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbRaceChartCalendar.cfm?refresh=1..
Hwere's how...
Go to www.equibase.com
in the menu go to results...bring up the drop down menu and look for "historical charts"
Choose "track" in another drop down. Select Keeneland
Then select the month( Keeneland is live in April and October)
It will them bring up a calendar. Each live race day is underlined and clickable.
Lastly, click on "view all races" for that day.
Edit...Just checked my link. You can use this as it is the historical chart menu

[whodoyoulike]

Thanks, I've used Equibase for years and never knew of this feature. There's so much info avail on the web, you just have to know where to look.

[thespaah]

Thanks, I've used Equibase for years and never knew of this feature. There's so much info avail on the web, you just have to know where to look.
Yep...A few years back equibase actually ( Laughing he is) wanted a log in to look at historical charts. The site no longer requires a log in. Also, to view race replays, there was a fee required. Yeah right. I don't do pay services. Let the site owner sell ads.
drf.com still requires a log in to view charts. And I despise going through registration to get simple information.

[whodoyoulike]

Thanks again. I used to log in but haven't in a long time.

[Cratos]

This morning after reviewing the data I submitted in my post concerning the average mutuels at the 2013 Saratoga meet I found that I had made some errors in transposing the data from my master spreadsheet to the one which I posted.

However I have corrected the errors and I am posting a corrected spreadsheet which includes the averages for the weekdays, weekends, and an overall weighted average.

I apologize for any inconvenience this might have caused.
I am requesting that the site administrator delete the earlier post to avoid confusion.

[thespaah]

This morning after reviewing the data I submitted in my post concerning the average mutuels at the 2013 Saratoga meet I found that I had made some errors in transposing the data from my master spreadsheet to the one which I posted.

However I have corrected the errors and I am posting a corrected spreadsheet which includes the averages for the weekdays, weekends, and an overall weighted average.

I apologize for any inconvenience this might have caused.
I am requesting that the site administrator delete the earlier post to avoid confusion.
Apology not accepted.
You shall be taken to the Town Square and given 15 flogs with a willow switch.
:lol:

[Dave Schwartz]

Okay... I had a couple of minutes and here is all of 2013 data:

Average Mutuels:


2013.
Public Choice: Sat-Sun
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV DV BV AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1st 18,411 6,445 35.0 $1.63 2.65 1.02 1.05 2.76 $4.65 1.31 1.00
2nd 17,547 3,799 21.7 $1.68 1.64 1.05 1.08 1.66 $7.78 2.86 2.00
3rd 17,511 2,550 14.6 $1.59 1.10 0.99 1.03 1.18 $10.89 4.43 3.00
FH 31,185 2,750 8.8 $1.57 0.77 0.98 1.01 0.72 $17.83 7.88 4.67
RH 56,991 2,165 3.8 $1.37 0.31 0.94 0.88 0.32 $36.15 18.70 7.11

Total 141,645 17,709 12.5 $1.51 1.00 0.96 $12.08


2013.
Public Choice: Mon-Fri
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV DV BV AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1st 25,218 9,163 36.3 $1.66 2.70 1.03 1.07 2.81 $4.56 1.27 1.00
2nd 23,868 5,132 21.5 $1.63 1.59 1.01 1.05 1.70 $7.56 2.76 2.00
3rd 23,855 3,453 14.5 $1.54 1.07 0.96 0.99 1.20 $10.67 4.30 3.00
FH 40,748 3,616 8.9 $1.55 0.76 0.98 1.00 0.73 $17.51 7.79 4.63
RH 75,808 2,791 3.7 $1.39 0.29 0.94 0.90 0.32 $37.79 19.27 7.01

Total 189,497 24,155 12.7 $1.51 1.00 0.96 $11.85

[Ocala Mike]

So, Dave, I'm not a mathematician or statistician, but even a layman would conclude, I think, that there is absolutely no meaningful calendar contribution to the data, right?

Still say the only significant operative factor in avg. win mutuel is avg. field size.

[Dave Schwartz]

The difference in field size is about .15 horses per race.

I tried to look past that, looking instead at the changes between 1st, 2nd, 3rd, FH, RH.

What I see in the data is that 1st & 2nd choices pay a little more on the weekends than they do on the weekdays.

That leads me to think that the races are slightly more competitive on the weekends, which leads to more co-favorites (loosely speaking).

Easy enough to test. Let's look at the frequency of odds-on horses in the two samples.

[Dave Schwartz]

2013-weekends.
201-PubChWIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV DV BV AvPay AvOdds AvPubC Freq
3/5 2,658 1,465 55.1 $1.66 3.62 1.04 1.07 4.25 $3.02 0.50 1.00 6.66
6/5 5,705 2,259 39.6 $1.64 2.81 1.02 1.06 3.12 $4.14 1.05 1.02 3.10
3 25,175 6,285 25.0 $1.65 1.88 1.03 1.06 1.95 $6.61 2.28 1.74
9/2 14,900 2,362 15.9 $1.63 1.23 1.01 1.05 1.26 $10.26 4.06 2.88
6 15,046 1,813 12.0 $1.65 0.95 1.02 1.06 0.95 $13.73 5.75 3.73
9 16,393 1,394 8.5 $1.58 0.68 0.97 1.02 0.70 $18.55 8.11 4.64
15 19,806 1,203 6.1 $1.62 0.49 1.00 1.05 0.49 $26.60 12.13 5.69
24 15,603 557 3.6 $1.48 0.30 0.90 0.95 0.32 $41.43 19.22 6.76
35 13,120 264 2.0 $1.30 0.17 0.79 0.84 0.20 $64.46 30.30 7.61
Above 13,253 107 0.8 $0.92 0.08 0.57 0.59 0.11$114.02 55.15 8.42

Total 141,659 17,709 12.5 $1.51 1.00 0.96


2013.
201-PubChWIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV DV BV AvPay AvOdds AvPubC Freq
3/5 3,903 2,183 55.9 $1.71 3.69 1.06 1.10 4.21 $3.06 0.52 1.00 6.19
6/5 8,315 3,336 40.1 $1.66 2.80 1.03 1.07 3.11 $4.13 1.05 1.03 2.90
3 35,466 8,804 24.8 $1.63 1.83 1.01 1.05 1.96 $6.57 2.26 1.79
9/2 19,729 3,097 15.7 $1.61 1.20 1.00 1.04 1.26 $10.26 4.06 2.94
6 19,584 2,223 11.4 $1.56 0.88 0.96 1.01 0.95 $13.75 5.74 3.75
9 20,742 1,780 8.6 $1.59 0.68 0.98 1.03 0.70 $18.55 8.11 4.61
15 24,773 1,499 6.1 $1.61 0.48 1.00 1.04 0.49 $26.53 12.14 5.61
24 19,374 671 3.5 $1.42 0.28 0.88 0.92 0.32 $40.94 19.21 6.58
35 17,042 399 2.3 $1.52 0.20 0.92 0.98 0.20 $64.80 30.33 7.37
Above 20,569 163 0.8 $0.94 0.07 0.58 0.61 0.11$119.23 57.36 8.25

Total 189,497 24,155 12.7 $1.51 1.00 0.96




You may have to scroll right to see the Freq column.

On weekends, there is a 3/5 or below horse once every 6.66 races. On weekdays, such a horse occurs more often, in just 6.19 races.

Thus, my contention is that weekend races are MORE contentious, resulting in less BIG favorites.

You might say that this is ONLY a 7.5% increase is such horses but I think it is still relevant.

[rastajenk]

If we want to get into some serious hair-splitting, I offer this:

Maybe lumping Sunday with Saturday is misguided. Sure, it's half of a traditional weekend, but the similarity stops there. For fully one-third of the year Sunday racing is up against the NFL; handle and attendance (all kinds - live, racebooks, at-home) is more comparable to a Friday than a Saturday. And the percentages of "smart money" vs. what some of you like to call "dumb money," or the activity of more casual fans, would be different on a Saturday than any other day, including Sunday. This is the part of the handle contributed by people who don't care about their y-t-d ROI, statistical minutiae, and the efficiency of their favorite computer programs.

I believe that is where the insignificant differences lie. They are surely not great enough upon which to base a weekly wagering strategy, if that was the intent of the original poster.

:)

[classhandicapper]

I think Saratoga is the best test case.

The question is whether there is better value on weekends due to the presence of more unsophisticated money in the pools on weekends. It's hard to control for everything else that may be different between weekends and week days (like quality of competition, field size etc..) to know if that's true.

Personally, I think it's obvious that it's true for big races like the Derby and BC. I find way more horses to bet on days like that than I do on the typical weekday at NYRA. But I find that to be true of Saratoga also. Since Saratoga is a full meet of a lot tourist money, maybe that's the meet we should look at the closest.

One other thing, IMO the loss of NYCOTB was a major loss in that way. NYCOTB was a gigantic pool of the least sophisticated money imaginable being bet around the country (especially weekends). NYRA and other ADWs captured some of that money, but a lot of it was either lost or is going to bookmakers now.

PS: I know that NYRA gets higher margins now etc..., but that's a different story from the actual revenue. I know dozens of people that used to be daily players that have dropped out.

[Ocala Mike]

I believe that is where the insignificant differences lie. They are surely not great enough upon which to base a weekly wagering strategy, if that was the intent of the original poster.




Agree 100%. I have anecdotal evidence that my wagering losses would be minimized if I simply refrained from betting on days ending in "y."

[Ocala Mike]

One other thing, IMO the loss of NYCOTB was a major loss in that way.



Let me try to quantify that for you, at least historically. When I worked as a NY State auditor at NYRA tracks during the 80's before simulcasting, it was easy to get a handle on the difference between on and off-track betting. We generated a "swing figure" each day comparing on-track pay to off-track pay, and it was very rare to see days where the off-track bettors did better. The "swing," however, over the course of say a full year amounted to only about 3%, i.e. for every dollar in winnings returned to an on-track bettor, $.97 would be returned to an off-track bettor.

[classhandicapper]

Let me try to quantify that for you, at least historically. When I worked as a NY State auditor at NYRA tracks during the 80's before simulcasting, it was easy to get a handle on the difference between on and off-track betting. We generated a "swing figure" each day comparing on-track pay to off-track pay, and it was very rare to see days where the off-track bettors did better. The "swing," however, over the course of say a full year amounted to only about 3%, i.e. for every dollar in winnings returned to an on-track bettor, $.97 would be returned to an off-track bettor.

Thanks for that data.

I probably would have guessed something along those lines. Even though those former OTB patrons weren't sophisticated bettors, they did have access to and use public handicapper selections and the odds board. They also focused their attention on the top trainers and jockeys. So they couldn't get disastrous results. But every little bit helps. ;)