Figuring out the race style..

[sq764]

I think one of my biggest challenges is trying to anticipate how each race will run before it happens.

With that being said, what are some of the ways and methods people use to try to judge whether a race will point to a speed horse or a closer?

I am moreso asking about races with no outstanding speed or even multiple front runners, as well as races with zero speed. I am speaking of the more unclear pace scenarios.

[GameTheory]

All else being equal, you've always got to favor speed somewhat. But a good way to analyze such races is to break the horses into two groups -- speed horses and off-the-pace horses. Then key in on the on best horses in each category (only compare the horses to others in the same category). Depending on how the race unfolds (which is unclear, as you said), it will be one of those two most likely to emerge the winner...

[Fastracehorse]

Tough but excellent question.

You are not asking the obvious - but the tougher pace questions.

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<I am moreso asking about races with no outstanding speed]

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This is the toughest of the 2 questions, and 2 things pop to mind:

1) In routes, sometimes a horse with mild early tactical speed can shoot to the front from an inside post position. This horse may go off at great odds - especially if his previous races were from outside posts, where he was hung like laundry.

2) In a field of no obvious detectable early speed, try the horse with the most trainer intent. Some times horses that don't show early speed will do so if sharp.

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<multiple front runners

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In turf events, there are some jocks who won't get caught in speed duels - it often seems that when a melt-down on the front end is about to happen, a couple guys take back and someone is alone on the lead. In otherwords, tough to know.

In dirt sprints, if the outside posts have good tactical speed - they can often capitolize on collapsing pace duels. Even though these outside posts may get caught a little wide, as long as they don't duel, they get up quite a bit.

This is important because many 'cappers ignore post 13 ( eg. ) in large sprinting fields, and I don't think that they should.

fffastt

[Tom]

If you have the book Pace Makes the Race, they outline a very handy procedure for breaking the race down to groups by running style. It is a logical way to start with the early speed horses and move tot he pressers and finally the closers. I think too often the closers look good when you take them out of context. The horse in front must be given a better chance to win and the one right behind him the next best chance. You have to not only "like" the closer, you have to have cooperation up front.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Almost every horse fades to a certain extent in all races at all distances regardless of track depth. If you can figure how much each horse will fade in the current race, you win! Try paper capping only to find the projected finish time of each horse based on expected fading. I would suggest a 6f race first!

[thelyingthief]

races which do not contain sufficient front speed are actually somewhat easier to handicap. first, tend to toss the closers, there's nothing to run against. next, note which horses have shown some willingness to go the front--1's and 0's--indicated somewhere in the pp's--the assiduous student will get the pp's of the race or races where these occur, and see if they are similar to today's conditions and conglomerate of horses. note also, which horses are recently claimed, have an outstanding work in their penultimate prep, and/or will be ridden by a jockey known for his hands, his gate technique, or his macho style--especially if it's a jockey switch.

also pay particular attention to the actual times of the first fractions--a difference of 2/5's can be spectacular. i also find that recent form is more significant here, as is the appearance of a long lay-off speed ball. lastly, and most importantly, run an apv, and expect for any higher class horse to dominate the early lead--which can mean a wire to wire win. One of those stats from winning at the races which holds true fairly universally, reveals that the winner comes from the front three runners some huge percentage of time. this is particularly the case with these kinds of races.

i use this approach, and hit about 68% winners in my top two.


take note, however, these various elements may vary by track and meet; in general, they will hold true.

[El Paso B]

For newbies to handicapping, the BRIS Ultimate PP's with comments has a running style for each horse.

e - on or wants the lead at 2nd call
ep - pressing leader at 2nd call (1-3 lengths off lead)
p - 3-8 lengths back at 2nd call
s - 8+ lenghts back at 2nd call
N/A - not enough information to make a determination

0 - not enough info to make a determination
1-3 - back half of pack at 1st call
4-6 - front half of pack at 1st call
7 - must have lead or be within 1-2 lengths at 1st call
8 - must have the lead at the 1st call

So, how do you interpret?

A P6 horse will break fast and be within 3 of the leader at first call and settle back to around 5 lengths back at the 2nd call. If there is a speed duel in front of him, will the speed horses falter so he can pick up the pieces and if so, is there a closer (S-style) with a huge closing fraction than can overtake all of them (compare the FF of the P horse and the closer to see which will get to the finish line first).

An E2 horse will break slow from the gate being in the back half of the pack at the 1st call, but will make a good move from the 1st call to the 2nd call going from the back of the pack all the way to the lead. You need to decide if he can make the lead (he may be too far back to make the lead and his psychological makeup will cause him to quit if he can't be in front), is his FF is good enough to keep him on the lead all the way to the finish line.

An S horse with an FF able to make up 7 lengths can't catch the horses in front of him if he is comfortable running 10 lengths behind. And it makes no difference how slow the early fractions are run, this horse's psychological makeup will put him 10 lengths behind at the 2nd call no matter how fast or slow the early fractions are run.

Details of the way to interpret the running styles is available in past issues of the All-Ways newsletters from www.frandsen.com.
;)

[Tom]

My exzperience with BRIS running style designations is that they are for the most part worthless. If I am going to the trouble of analyzing pace through running styles,I make my own calls-ot takes a few seconds and most of the time I do not agree wtih BRIS.