JohnGalt1
07-07-2014, 03:44 PM
When I handicap I have been circling trainers with a 30% or higher wins with first and second after claim, first time starters, winner and maiden winner last race, and 90 days+ since last race. And turf if trainer is 25% or higher since turf fields are usually bigger.
And I circle when a jockey trainer combo is 30% or higher.
Marc Cramer Is always looking for the "automatic bet."
I am not a trainer or jockey oriented handicapper, since I believe it is the horse that races.
I decided to look at one year of races that I personally handicapped to see how the data performed.
The flaws to what I did is it only the races and tracks I did, so very few NE tracks, and some races had multiple instances, as many as 4 in a very few races. and I did not play Golden Gate much or the jockey trainer stats would be out of whack with the small fields, allowing more trainers to have 30% wins, and almost any trainer Baze rides for are 30% together.
I did not factor in form or speed or class. If a horse was off a 200 day lay off with only a 3 furlong work out but was a last out winner from 30% trainer, he was counted. Though there probably were no horses like that example. In other words, I used no filters.
My results---
Trainer--above listed categories--204 races--36 wins--17.6%
Jockey/trainer combo--657 races--133 wins--20%
Trainers, not included above, AND a jockey trainer combo also not included above--79 races--19 wins--24%
What I am doing when these categories comes up is to be more confident if I like the horse from my handicapping, but to also add them to pick three and pick fours.
I don't not know how these performed in vertical bets.
Un fortunately I have left out horse like this since compiling this data and have been knocked out of pick 3's and 4's by inferior horses with 30% trainers or jockey trainer combos.. :bang:
This is not a definitive study because of the limitations. I may get slightly different results in 2014, as any of you might in the races you handicapped in 2013.
To sum up, I personally see more value with this than I thought before, and will (try to) add any horse to any horizontal bet, and if the bet is more than I want to pay, to pass the race rather than save money only to lose.
And I circle when a jockey trainer combo is 30% or higher.
Marc Cramer Is always looking for the "automatic bet."
I am not a trainer or jockey oriented handicapper, since I believe it is the horse that races.
I decided to look at one year of races that I personally handicapped to see how the data performed.
The flaws to what I did is it only the races and tracks I did, so very few NE tracks, and some races had multiple instances, as many as 4 in a very few races. and I did not play Golden Gate much or the jockey trainer stats would be out of whack with the small fields, allowing more trainers to have 30% wins, and almost any trainer Baze rides for are 30% together.
I did not factor in form or speed or class. If a horse was off a 200 day lay off with only a 3 furlong work out but was a last out winner from 30% trainer, he was counted. Though there probably were no horses like that example. In other words, I used no filters.
My results---
Trainer--above listed categories--204 races--36 wins--17.6%
Jockey/trainer combo--657 races--133 wins--20%
Trainers, not included above, AND a jockey trainer combo also not included above--79 races--19 wins--24%
What I am doing when these categories comes up is to be more confident if I like the horse from my handicapping, but to also add them to pick three and pick fours.
I don't not know how these performed in vertical bets.
Un fortunately I have left out horse like this since compiling this data and have been knocked out of pick 3's and 4's by inferior horses with 30% trainers or jockey trainer combos.. :bang:
This is not a definitive study because of the limitations. I may get slightly different results in 2014, as any of you might in the races you handicapped in 2013.
To sum up, I personally see more value with this than I thought before, and will (try to) add any horse to any horizontal bet, and if the bet is more than I want to pay, to pass the race rather than save money only to lose.