Confidence Testing....Odds-Dependent

[Randy Gunn]

Let's take a sample of 100 races. Both are profitable. One sample is lower odds horses, high win percentage. The other is higher odds horses and lower win percentage.

Could it be said that the first group (high win %) would inspire more confidence of repeatability than the second? If not, why?

Thanks,
Randy

[BIG HIT]

The true answer is with in you.If you hit 4 favorite out of ten race's.Compared to 2 for ten it is what your comfortable with.
AS every day at all track's have favorite's and longshot's.And you will alway's pick more losser then winner's no matter which group you go with.

[Exactaman]

Originally posted by Randy Gunn
Let's take a sample of 100 races. Both are profitable. One sample is lower odds horses, high win percentage. The other is higher odds horses and lower win percentage.

Could it be said that the first group (high win %) would inspire more confidence of repeatability than the second? If not, why?

Thanks,
Randy

I would say that for a player having the ability to bet horses in higher odds ranges for 100 races and realizing positive profits, confidence would be more a function of those profits than the win percentage.

[melman]

Randy, I think the answer to your question is yes. Most people I know use the high win percentage method because they cannot stand any long run outs. Weather or not this leads to more profits is not there over riding concern. One of the reasons I think that in making a profit you MUST have a betting plan and that plan must be in your comfort zone. One other area of betting the longer priced horses is that you have to wait for them to come to you and that also can be a killer for the "action" staved player.

[jackad]

What should be considered a high percentage win method -- over 30%? And a low percentage method --less than 20%?

Jack