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View Full Version : Belmont Picks: July 5, 2014


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07-05-2014, 11:56 AM
Race One:

:4: Guilty Verdict gets my nod in the opener. Although this filly has never run on the grass, her breeding says: “I can handle the lawn”. Her Medaglia d’Oro (Prado (IRE) ) pedigree speaks volumes about her potential to perambulate on the grass. I’d prefer to see her laying back about mid- pack. Yes, she’s been off for several months (she was a beaten fave in her last on the dirt), but her recent work-tab has been good. She retains Javier Castellano. Her connections are solid: Phipps Stable, trainer “Shug” McGaughey. Oh, she also adds Lasix. If she handles the turf like I believe she can, she instantly becomes a player.

Others: :2: Silverama; :6: Giant’s Jewel; :3: Striking Style.


Race Two:

In this Six Furlong sprint on the main I’m leaning toward :4: Eastwood. Yes, I usually take notice when I see a Todd Pletcher trainee. Yet, this chestnut colt has a lot going for him: the services of “Johnny V,” third start off a layoff, solid recent work-tab, and the aforementioned Pletcher. About a month ago, the colt couldn’t get it done against some of the top sprinters in the Grade II True North; now, however…. Further, the Speightstown-bred colt should handle any off-going.

Others: :8: Kingsford Drive; :2: Confrontation; :5: Revocation.


Race Three:

In this turf sprint, I’m gonna take a shot with the Linda Rice trainee, :7: Lead Singer. The Unbridled’s Song-bred roan colt won his last about a month ago, albeit against weaker. Yet, I believe this Mr. Greeley bred is capable of repeating, possibly at a price. I think Jose Ortiz will put this colt into stalking position that will allow him to pounce in the stretch.

Others: :2: Partly Mocha; :11: Adirondack Dancer; :4: American Progress.

Race Four:

In the Grade III Dwyer, :4: Tiz Dark is my pick. The 3 year-old Tiznow-bred colt demolished a field of five in a maiden-special route a little over a month ago. Add the services of Hall-of-Famer “Johnny V” and trainer Todd Pletcher. The colt’s pedigree says that he should handle any wetness; in fact he might well relish it. Add to that a solid morning work.

Others: :1: / :1a: Kid Cruz, Captain Serious; :3: Ulanbator

Race Five:

:10: Dowse’s Beach gets my tepid nod in this turf sprint. I like the fact that this Citidancer-bred is cutting back a couple panels. Second start off a layoff. A Christophe Clement trainee. Clement is 33% trainer: route to sprint. Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the irons

Others: :8: Latigo Trail; :9: Blue Chips Only; :11: A Marked Man

Race Six:

In the Belmont Sprint Championship my choice is :9: Palace. Won the Grade II True North about a month ago. Has won half his lifetime starts. 15 out of 18 in-the-money, lifetime. Solid trainer in Linda Rice. “Johnny V.” in the irons. City Zip-bred would benefit from any residual moisture. Should benefit from outside post.

Others: :7: Salutos Amigos; :3: Clearly Now; :2: Central Banker


Race Seven:

My pick in the Belmont Derby Invitational is :1: Toast of New York. The Kingmambo-bred colt ships in from the United Arab Emirates where he won a two million dollar stake. Yet, the colt has only raced once on the lawn and finished fifth in the UK. My pedigree charts indicate he does have decent turf lineage. Admittedly, I’m trying for an upset.

Others: :4: Adelaide; :3: Bobby’s Kitten; :7: Gailo Chop.

Race Eight:

In the mile and a quarter Grade II Suburban I’m going with :5: Last Gunfighter. He’s won his last two, one at Penn, the other at Hawthorne. The First Samurai-bred horse is moving up, but I think he can handle the hike. Should also handle any wetness. Javier Castellano for Chad Brown. Oh, he has hit the tote in 14 of 16 lifetime starts.

Others: :6: Romanash; :4: Norumbega; :1: Micromanage


Race Nine:

I like the cut of this horse’s jib, I mean :5: Flying Jib in the Grade I Belmont Oaks Invitational. She ships in from “The Emerald Isle” where she’s three out of four, including two on the lawn. Is stretching out some and may well be tested in that regard. Yet she looks like she can handle the added panels. Pat Smullen for Dermot Weld.

Others: :7: Xcellence; :2: Room Service; :9: Minorette.

Race Ten:

In the finale, an allowance turf route, I’m taking :12: Hidden Vow. Admittedly, the Bruce Brown trainee has won only one race, lifetime; yet he’s been knocking on the door in many of his other starts. He’s hit the tote in 9 of 21 tries. He finished third in a NY ungraded stakes in his last. Any slight improvement…

Others: :6: Point Roll; :2: Mobridge; :3: Mr Algebra