My first contest Saturday. Need some strategy advice.

[WP1981]

Playing in my first contest Saturday and seeking a little advice.

The info is here: http://www.losalamitos.com/News.aspx?id=2309

I have no idea if this set up is +ev in poker terms and it wasn't clear what the rake is. Still looks like a good time for me either way.

Is it normal to only allow wagering on the host tracks races? Do contests usually include exacta wagers?

What route would you take if you were playing?

[Stillriledup]

Just read the rules, this looks like a great contest, it seems like they're giving back ALL the fees, so its essentially a 0% takeout wager.

I love the idea that its just Los Al only, if someone is going to beat you, they're not going to beat you by stabbing on some longshot at some offbeat track, they're going to have to beat you head and head at Los Al.

One of the best ways to play a contest like this, where there is only one track, is to lean on the conservative side...don't shun the 8 dollar winner that you love, because if the day ends up being REALLY chalky, you'll beat a lot of people to the wire just on picking winners no matter what they pay.

Also, it depends on how many people are in this contest.....if there's 500 than you have to be a little more daring...if there's 100, than you can play it a little tighter to the vest. Most of the people will be stabbing on no hopers, so if you can pick a few winners that pay moderate prices, you can be in the hunt. Find out how many people have entered, the more entries the more daring you have to be with how you wager.

[Exotic1]

Playing in my first contest Saturday and seeking a little advice.

The info is here: http://www.losalamitos.com/News.aspx?id=2309

I have no idea if this set up is +ev in poker terms and it wasn't clear what the rake is. Still looks like a good time for me either way.

Is it normal to only allow wagering on the host tracks races? Do contests usually include exacta wagers?

What route would you take if you were playing?

This does sound interesting. Like SRU said, there doesn't seem to be any rake that goes to the house. In addition, I think the house kicks in $500.

If they show the running balances of the contestants during the 5 race sequence you'll have an idea on what to do towards the end. Stay alive for a few races and hit a $100 cold exacta to bury the field. Ok, just joking.

The $100 voucher you bet with is real money so if you build it up to $300 you get all your money back plus an upside of winning/placing in the tournament.

Good luck.

[Stillriledup]

This does sound interesting. Like SRU said, there doesn't seem to be any rake that goes to the house. In addition, I think the house kicks in $500.

If they show the running balances of the contestants during the 5 race sequence you'll have an idea on what to do towards the end. Stay alive for a few races and hit a $100 cold exacta to bury the field. Ok, just joking.

The $100 voucher you bet with is real money so if you build it up to $300 you get all your money back plus an upside of winning/placing in the tournament.

Good luck.

The tricky thing is to not let running up the real live money get in the way, for example, lets say you come down to the final race and you have run the 100 up to 500....do you go conservative and come away with 400 or 450 or do you bet a 500 "ice cold" exacta ?

What is a solid idea is to address this in your mind before the contest because in the heat of the battle, its going to be a lot tougher to empty the entire voucher on the last race. If you're in the calm of your own home the night before and you say "im going to let it ride" than it will be much easier to pull the trigger.

[Exotic1]

The tricky thing is to not let running up the real live money get in the way, for example, lets say you come down to the final race and you have run the 100 up to 500....do you go conservative and come away with 400 or 450 or do you bet a 500 "ice cold" exacta ?

What is a solid idea is to address this in your mind before the contest because in the heat of the battle, its going to be a lot tougher to empty the entire voucher on the last race. If you're in the calm of your own home the night before and you say "im going to let it ride" than it will be much easier to pull the trigger.

For sure. Good point, have a script.

[ten2oneormore]

I don't think there is any chance to win playing conservative.

I would only play exactas


No MLs yet but assuming he is an OK price, think Friendswith K Mill is interesting in Los Al derby as a key.

[Stillriledup]

I don't think there is any chance to win playing conservative.

I would only play exactas


No MLs yet but assuming he is an OK price, think Friendswith K Mill is interesting in Los Al derby as a key.

Here's my guess at what the ML might be. (no, i didnt add it up or do the math so my total could be wrong)

1) Eddies First 15-1

2) Tonito M 12-1

3) Can the Man 5-1

4) Friends w Kmill 3-1

5) Shared Belief 1-1

6) Top Fortitude 20-1

7) Candy Boy 7-2

[SandyW]

Here's my guess at what the ML might be. (no, i didnt add it up or do the math so my total could be wrong)

1) Eddies First 15-1

2) Tonito M 12-1

3) Can the Man 5-1

4) Friends w Kmill 3-1

5) Shared Belief 1-1

6) Top Fortitude 20-1

7) Candy Boy 7-2

Can The Man likes like the most likely winner in this race.

[burnsy]

Just read the rules, this looks like a great contest, it seems like they're giving back ALL the fees, so its essentially a 0% takeout wager.

I love the idea that its just Los Al only, if someone is going to beat you, they're not going to beat you by stabbing on some longshot at some offbeat track, they're going to have to beat you head and head at Los Al.

One of the best ways to play a contest like this, where there is only one track, is to lean on the conservative side...don't shun the 8 dollar winner that you love, because if the day ends up being REALLY chalky, you'll beat a lot of people to the wire just on picking winners no matter what they pay.

Also, it depends on how many people are in this contest.....if there's 500 than you have to be a little more daring...if there's 100, than you can play it a little tighter to the vest. Most of the people will be stabbing on no hopers, so if you can pick a few winners that pay moderate prices, you can be in the hunt. Find out how many people have entered, the more entries the more daring you have to be with how you wager.


This is good advice. I didn't read the rules but they usually only allow one exacta during the day. At one track, he's right about this strategy. You can be a "grinder" and do well.

[JimG]

I don't think there is any chance to win playing conservative.

I would only play exactas



Agree with the above, unless there is a horse you think has a good shot at > 10-1, you may want to play a win bet as well. Exactas are where my focus would be with non-favorites on top. If say the top 3 get a Vegas qualifer, it does not matter whether you finish 6th or 300th. Many people worry about a decent finish as opposed to winning or at least qualifying. That is a mistake.

The most important thing is to know the rules in advance of the contest and plot your strategy accordingly. Your competition will be.

Jim

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Agree with the above, unless there is a horse you think has a good shot at > 10-1, you may want to play a win bet as well. Exactas are where my focus would be with non-favorites on top. If say the top 3 get a Vegas qualifer, it does not matter whether you finish 6th or 300th. Many people worry about a decent finish as opposed to winning or at least qualifying. That is a mistake.

The most important thing is to know the rules in advance of the contest and plot your strategy accordingly. Your competition will be.

Jim

Agree with both on the Exactas. The format dictates the winner/qualifiers are most likely going to be those that hit the highest paying Exactas on the card for the day. Also, make sure you do the minimum of 5 races in which $20 is wagered in those 5 races. I guarantee some people will be eliminated due to this very rule.

The card will dictate a lot as well. Is it chalky, or are there a good number of races you can see 3 or more horses winning? Likely you'll be able to find at least 2 or 3 "open" races. I would spend extra time on those finding the Exactas that will pay.

2 things I learned early in contests. Don't panic if you are down significantly early in the contest, and don't stretch on horses early in the contest in races you don't particularly like because a horse has a 'chance' at big odds. The last thing you want to do is be 3 races in and have a $40 bankroll.

[Exotic1]

I don't think there is any chance to win playing conservative.

I would only play exactas


No MLs yet but assuming he is an OK price, think Friendswith K Mill is interesting in Los Al derby as a key.

You're probably right. In order to win the tournament you're going to have to have a strong exacta play somewhere along the 5 races.

[davew]

at least $20 on 5 races

bet 4 conservatively and then all of it on last - greatest sweat

[WP1981]

Thank you for the ideas. Will go over the card after today's races.

Thinking about doing a mock run on today's card.

[fmolf]

Thank you for the ideas. Will go over the card after today's races.

Thinking about doing a mock run on today's card.
good idea....Just handicap like you normally do.Everyone has to play the same races.Try to stay in the hunt till the last few races..then make your contrarian picks.When the crowd zigs ,separate yourself by zagging....good luck and have fun!

[WP1981]

Alrighty, a few things have come up that put a hitch in my giddy up for today's contest.

#1 is that I have a three year old son and my fiance works on call for the hospital this weekend and was called in today until 315pm. My son only lasts about two races at the track before melting down in front of everyone.

#2 my capping has been abysmal over the past two days here. The one and only bright spot is the horse I have been putting with my top choice in some failed exacta plays. The formula that helps me find this horse is simple and doesn't change, a little difficult to explain. This specific selection has won or placed in a little over half the races run so far at a decent price.

My plan is to leave in a few minutes, get registered and do a $10 Win and Place for the first five races on the card and head home to wait for the fiance. Hopefully they let me advance wager, if not then I am back to the drawing board and will have to ride the day out hoping my son doesn't melt down lol.

The selections are as follows (for at least the first five races.

1. 3
2. 2
3. 4
4. 3
5. 5
6. 2
7. 4
8. Undecided at this point. Was going to stab at the 6 but am not sure.
9. 8

I'll probably take some flack for this, but I just found out at 5am that she would be going in today.

[WP1981]

Big stumble in the opener. Guess it will be one of those days.

[Red Knave]

Nice pick in the 2nd. :)

[WP1981]

Nice pick in the 2nd. :)

I was shocked at the price after it sat at 7 or 8-1 most of the time.

[Red Knave]

Nice pick in the 2nd. :)
And the 3rd. :ThmbUp: