Favorite/Least Favorite Races to Handicap

[letswastemoney]

Favorite - maiden claimers

A lot of horses that run in maiden claimers have zero chance. Even better if I can find a speed horse that faded sharply at a higher class. They usually improve by a lot here.

Least favorite - 5 furlong turf sprints

I would be more likely to play any race but a 5 furlong turf race. I'd rather play a 1 mile 10k claimer than a stakes race run at 5 furlongs on turf. Turf races are already bunched up enough at the route distance. If I must play a race this short, I prefer dirt because there's separation.

[Stillriledup]

Favorite distances to cap and or bet:

6F, 6.5F, 7F and 1M if its a 1 turn mile.

Prefer dirt over turf.

Prefer dirt over Synthetic.

Prefer Turf over Synthetic.

Probably prefer Synthetic over slop or "off".

Prefer 5F races over 1 1/8th and longer.

Mostly skip or bet very small amounts on races of 1 1/4 or longer.

Favorite field sizes in order: 8, 9, 7, 6, 10.

Prefer cheap maiden claimers where half the field has no shot. Love starter allowance races. Prefer betting colt races over filly races.

[cashmachine]

I don't like dirt races, and hate yielding wet tracks.

I prefer good or firm turf races with 12 or less participants.

[Robert Goren]

Turf Route races and G3 stakes. G3 stakes are of two types. One is with the "unbeatable" favorite that is drawing bridge jumpers. Type two is a race with a bunch of horses who have never run at the level before and shippers from everywhere. I have no clue about how to handicap a turf route race. I have looked at everything written about and have tried some ideas of my own. Nothing works for me.

[Fingal]

Favorite-

Turf, especially that 6 1/2 down the hill at Santa Anita. Or those at 1 1/4 or longer.

Least favorite, 5 or 5 1/2 sprints on the main track. Or maidens with a bunch of firsters.

[PhantomOnTour]

My least favorite by a wide margin are the 7f turf races at Belmont.

I don't even try anymore, just let 'em go, and don't get me started about trying to make meaningful/useful figures on these contests.

They are an enigma, rolled in shit, wrapped in a riddle & deep fried

[Robert Goren]

My least favorite by a wide margin are the 7f turf races at Belmont.

I don't even try anymore, just let 'em go, and don't get me started about trying to make meaningful/useful figures on these contests.

They are an enigma, rolled in shit, wrapped in a riddle & deep fried I forgot those things. I hate them too. I just hate all 7F race period.

[DeltaLover]

Least Favorite:

Races with a lot of unknowns like for example lots of first time outs in a maiden race or lots international shippers in any race

Most Favorite:

Races where the crowd is concentrating in one or two starters while ignoring the others, like for example this year's TC races or any maiden claimer event where the favorite is dropping from a MSW

[biggestal99]

Breeders cups race with lots of foreigners are particualy juicy full of overlays.

Bettors in the US don't understand that foreign turf form is vastly superior to any US race

Basically it comes downs to whether the horse has shipped well a and isn't over the top

Certainly not outclassed.

I could show example after example over the past 10 years

[thaskalos]

Like - Older horses running on dirt.

Hate - Turf races for inexperienced turf runners.

REALLY hate - All races with less than seven betting interests.

[Valuist]

Favorites: stakes and maiden turf
Least: low level NW2 lifetime claiming

[Valuist]

Breeders cups race with lots of foreigners are particualy juicy full of overlays.

Bettors in the US don't understand that foreign turf form is vastly superior to any US race

Basically it comes downs to whether the horse has shipped well a and isn't over the top

Certainly not outclassed.

I could show example after example over the past 10 years

I think most US bettors, who bet anything at all, are well aware foreign turf form, is usually superior to US turf form.

[Appy]

Ditto on what delta said.
I used to avoid nearly all maiden races, but now find myself targeting them, except for those laden with FST.

[BlueShoe]

Least:

Stakes races.
Unknowns races; first starters, shippers, foreigners, layoff lines.

Becoming more disenchanted:

Conditioned claimers. This includes nw lifetimes, beaten claimers, and worst of all, optional claimers with conditions that only the racing secretary or a lawyer can decipher. :rolleyes:

Favorite:

Mid level open claiming races for older males on the dirt. Turf or plastic not as good. Low level or high level okay at times. Distaffers okay at times, but not as good as males. The key words are open claimers.

[Ocala Mike]

Favorite: MdSpWt or MdClm with a single second-time starter in that I can zero in on for a value play on the improve.

Least Favorite: Bottom claimers where the same horses keep appearing over and over again, and seem to keep beating each other at random.

[brdman12]

Least favorite....1st time starters...I stay away

Best................sprints on dirt...

The key for me is to handicap and let the odds determine the play, no bets on races with less than 8 horses. Its all about the odds. Yes I pass a lot of races nowadays...

[biggestal99]

I think most US bettors, who bet anything at all, are well aware foreign turf form, is usually superior to US turf form.
Really? Then how do you figure a pletcher trainee winning the g3 summer stakes at woodbine at 4-1 chalkie vs an O'Brien charge 3rd in the Royal Lodge g2 off at 9-1
With the O'Brien stomping the pletcher.

Allan

[ABIndy]

Two year old races are a pass or an "all" depending on how strongly I may feel about another race in pick three-or four sequence. Since I concentrate heavily on NY circuit I really like maidens-special or claimers- since I've usually 1)seen their other races (in real time- where I'm engaged totally as opposed to replays where I know the winner already or am targeting a "horse to watch") and 2) can draw some conclusions based on the connections. But my preferences have changed over the years- turf sprints used to be my achilles heel- at least now I have a clue. Outside NY I gravitate to turf or pray for rain.

[Johnny V]

Favorite: Dirt sprints.
Least favorite races: maiden races with FTS and turf races.

[Greyfox]

Toughest? NW2 can be tough to predict.

[Maximillion]

I like conditional claimers (lifetime) with full fields on the dirt at most tracks.
Also like conditional allowances at mid-to lower level tracks.

Dont like cheap "open" claimers for older horses,and not doing very well on turf and all-weather.

[Some_One]

Dislike - Mdn's and baby/young races.

Like - Just about everything else, especially Aussie and HK races.

[dav4463]

Favorite............... 8-10 horse field in a lower to mid-level claiming route race.

Least favorite....... any race where I have to weed through also-eligibles in the form....you know the kind....15 horses listed and 4 or 5 are AE.

[plainolebill]

Favorites: Dirt Sprints including MCL, conditioned claimers, first level alw. Dirt routes of the same classes come in 2nd.

Least favorite: Turf races in general, synthetics, graded stakes on any surface.

I don't like betting two year old races until fall.

[bull_zeye]

Doing some more serious record keeping this year that ever before. IN 93 races I have a positive ROI (+28%) on all races 6.5 F or shorter, or 8.5 F or longer. Between those distances (7F - Mile 70) my ROI is sharply negative(-40%).

The influx and mix of sprinters and routers running those "tweener" races seem to make it tough for me to find good handicapping strategy in these.

Thus anything between 8.5 F and 6.5 F is my least fav race. If I skip such races and do as well in sprints and routes I will do much better overall.

I also dislike Maidens of any kind and any races where the track configuration requires the start gate is almost on a turn.

[thaskalos]

Doing some more serious record keeping this year that ever before. IN 93 races I have a positive ROI (+28%) on all races 6.5 F or shorter, or 8.5 F or longer. Between those distances (7F - Mile 70) my ROI is sharply negative(-40%).

The influx and mix of sprinters and routers running those "tweener" races seem to make it tough for me to find good handicapping strategy in these.

Thus anything between 8.5 F and 6.5 F is my least fav race. If I skip such races and do as well in sprints and routes I will do much better overall.

I also dislike Maidens of any kind and any races where the track configuration requires the start gate is almost on a turn.

Of all the horse racing problems to have...I would pick the one where I couldn't wager on races run between 7F and a mile-70. :)

[Robert Goren]

Favorite............... 8-10 horse field in a lower to mid-level claiming route race.

Least favorite....... any race where I have to weed through also-eligibles in the form....you know the kind....15 horses listed and 4 or 5 are AE.What track are you betting that you find these kinds of races?

[BettinBilly]

Boiling it down to the absolute worst and best;

Worse: Maiden's
Best: Sprints on Dirt

[zico20]

least favorite: 16,000-25,000 claiming races, 2 yr old races other than stakes races

favorites: maiden claiming and grade 1 on the dirt, 6 horse fields where I know the favorite is either going to win so I can go big in the superfecta with a couple of straight 40 dollar tickets or a bunch of 10 superfectas with the favorite running second, third or fourth.

[Ocala Mike]

I can go big in the superfecta with a couple of straight 40 dollar tickets




Seriously? You have a positive ROI betting $40 straight supers into a (maybe) 36% takeout? God bless you if you can win in the long run like that.

What track(s) do you take these plunges on, if I could ask?

[cnollfan]

Favorite races:
N2X allowances, betting against recent N1X winners at short prices.
Full fields of maiden claimers if some longshots have not yet lost at the level.
Unlike some previous posters here, I like 7f races.
Turf routes.

Least favorite races:
5 furlong races.
Starter allowance races.
Claiming races with inflated racino purses and supertrainers dropping horses off wins or claims.
MSW races for older fillies and mares.

[Capper Al]

I oscillate on this. I get hot on maidens and then cold. Get hot on turf and then cold. About the only thing that held up as a dislike over the years are fields less than 7.

[zico20]

Seriously? You have a positive ROI betting $40 straight supers into a (maybe) 36% takeout? God bless you if you can win in the long run like that.

What track(s) do you take these plunges on, if I could ask?

All I do is look over every single track running that day, almost always on Saturday or Sunday, and find one or two races that look easy to pick the 4 horses that will make up the superfecta. They are almost always six horse fields. I then put one horse on top with a couple of different $40 combos along with a few 10 backups to ensure I make a few bucks. The last two I hit were both at Mountianeer Park, one each the past two Saturdays. The supers paid 39 and 47. If you could look at those races PPs, they were very easy to hit. I rarely bet more than two races a day. Also, the day Carve won at CD I hit that super 20 times with pick of the litter second and guilty trip third with the one entry fourth. That one was a no brainer to hit.

The track doesnt matter. My average super pays around 45 dollars. All I have to do is hit one of nine to break even. I will play trifectas instead of supers if I can't find a fourth horse in a race.

[Some_One]

All I do is look over every single track running that day, almost always on Saturday or Sunday, and find one or two races that look easy to pick the 4 horses that will make up the superfecta. They are almost always six horse fields. I then put one horse on top with a couple of different $40 combos along with a few 10 backups to ensure I make a few bucks. The last two I hit were both at Mountianeer Park, one each the past two Saturdays. The supers paid 39 and 47. If you could look at those races PPs, they were very easy to hit. I rarely bet more than two races a day. Also, the day Carve won at CD I hit that super 20 times with pick of the litter second and guilty trip third with the one entry fourth. That one was a no brainer to hit.

The track doesnt matter. My average super pays around 45 dollars. All I have to do is hit one of nine to break even. I will play trifectas instead of supers if I can't find a fourth horse in a race.


Variance, come back when you have a sample size of 500 (50X your average odds)

[Cholly]

Favorite races to handicap (lately, the only races I handicap):
NYRA n1x & n2x allowances--open & state-bred, dirt & turf; I look at filly races but prefer the colts.

[RaceBookJoe]

I stick with 6F dirt, sprints ( 5F/5,5F) and routes ( 1M,1 1/16M) on turf. I also like MSW, FTS races don't bother me either like the ones at Saratoga. Only races I don't care for are races I consider odd distances 6.5F, 7.5 etc. I prefer better quality tracks, but will play others. Not a fan of steeplechase races except to watch. If I don't understand the conditions of the race, I usually will either pass or at best, handicap it last. When I get the DRF, I usually start with the tracks I like, then first handicap all the sprints I might be interested in, and then go back through and do the turf races.

[Valuist]

Really? Then how do you figure a pletcher trainee winning the g3 summer stakes at woodbine at 4-1 chalkie vs an O'Brien charge 3rd in the Royal Lodge g2 off at 9-1
With the O'Brien stomping the pletcher.

Allan

So you make a generalization based on ONE example?

[biggestal99]

So you make a generalization based on ONE example?

How bout last years 6-1 outstrip (3rd in the g1 dewhurst) easily besting 2-1 Bobby's Kitten (winner of the g3 pilgrim by 6.5l)

Allan

[ILovetheInner]

I don't find US bettors at all in the dark about Euro quality? :confused: Used to be that way and I could cash a ticket that had some sort of value on it. Last big score I had was not liking that O'Brien Euro coming back to race against Point of Entry....can't remember his name, which shows you how bad he ran, lol! I thought his form said he was done, but from O'Brien so somehow I got a decent price on a McGaughey on a roll....in NEW YORK!

Favorite Races - Turf. Turf maidens especially (not as much sprints), and cheap maidens on the inner track are my old friends who have treated me well.

Least Favorite - Upper optional claiming. I remember when those didn't exist. Took a few years off and then they were everywhere. It's taken me a long time to adjust, still have no comfort zone at the higher levels.

[Some_One]

I don't find US bettors at all in the dark about Euro quality? :confused: Used to be that way and I could cash a ticket that had some sort of value on it. Last big score I had was not liking that O'Brien Euro coming back to race against Point of Entry....can't remember his name, which shows you how bad he ran, lol! I thought his form said he was done, but from O'Brien so somehow I got a decent price on a McGaughey on a roll....in NEW YORK!


Cape Blanco?

[ILovetheInner]

Cape Blanco?

I just looked it up! Treasure Breach! Had won the Irish Derby then came to win the Secretariat here the year before. That turned out being POE's coming out race, where everyone realized he really was "that" good, but Treasure Beach's more recent form was looking dubious with a string of losses. Bet down to 4-5 and didn't hit the board.

It's just a case in point where the horse looked bad on recent form, but an O'Brien who in past lines had G1s so bet like he couldn't lose.....really to heck with what his recent form was showing. A pretty good example of bettors revering Euro form, particularly if O'Brien's name is attached. For the form he brought into the race was poor, while in the meantime there was McGaughey colt looking like he was really heading forward. POE was the morning line choice, if memory serves, but the Euro got pounded at the windows regardless.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

OP +1.

Maiden claimers are tops, 'cause it's easier to identify the dynamic horses, and get a price.

Turf sprints a nightmare, especially at 5f. It's all about the start. Well, sometimes.

I also find the starter allowance races a real challenge - especially in California.

[cutchemist42]

Favorite distances to cap and or bet:

6F, 6.5F, 7F and 1M if its a 1 turn mile.

Prefer dirt over turf.

Prefer dirt over Synthetic.

Prefer Turf over Synthetic.

Probably prefer Synthetic over slop or "off".

Prefer 5F races over 1 1/8th and longer.

Mostly skip or bet very small amounts on races of 1 1/4 or longer.

Favorite field sizes in order: 8, 9, 7, 6, 10.

Prefer cheap maiden claimers where half the field has no shot. Love starter allowance races. Prefer betting colt races over filly races.

Just curious as as to why? The amount of different horses that can qualify?

[cutchemist42]

For me, I hate big turf fields that become hard to predict the types of trips a horse may have.

Lately I've been liking Maiden Claimers and Maidens a lot more recently, as long as there's not a lot of 1st timers.