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View Full Version : Belmont Weds 6/25 - Race 7


PhantomOnTour
06-24-2014, 11:49 PM
I will try with a total bomb in the :9: Howl with the hope that Junior puts this guy on the lead and goes for it.

He is a 30-1 ML longshot for good reason:
> broke Mdn for a tag - looks overmatched
> faces runners who have been competitive in Alw and Stks company
> 4% trainer in 2014
> others have speed also, but...

I think Howl can outgun these if Junior gets him outta there, and maybe he relegates those other E's to P's.
His Mdn breaker was fast (but for a tag) and he flashed serious speed in the Easy Goer Stk before chucking it last time out.

Need a massive price to bet him (25-1 or up) but I'll take a swang if I get it, and I think I will.

Thebigguy
06-25-2014, 06:31 AM
I will try with a total bomb in the :9: Howl with the hope that Junior puts this guy on the lead and goes for it.

He is a 30-1 ML longshot for good reason:
> broke Mdn for a tag - looks overmatched
> faces runners who have been competitive in Alw and Stks company
> 4% trainer in 2014
> others have speed also, but...

I think Howl can outgun these if Junior gets him outta there, and maybe he relegates those other E's to P's.
His Mdn breaker was fast (but for a tag) and he flashed serious speed in the Easy Goer Stk before chucking it last time out.

Need a massive price to bet him (25-1 or up) but I'll take a swang if I get it, and I think I will.

On paper he should be 100-1. There is no possible chance this horse makes the early lead. On paper he's like the 5th speed and is drawn to the far outside.
The first time Pletcher horse looks like a standout IMO.

Robert Fischer
06-25-2014, 06:32 AM
A lot of hard-hitters in that race.


Good luck :ThmbUp:

pele polo
06-25-2014, 07:10 AM
Racing at Aqueduct and Belmont, horses that win at long odds are consistently in the following types of races: MCL (lower level), state bred Msw, low level Clm n2l.

Alvarado brought one home last week at 38-1 in a lower level n2l or n3l. She really should have been 75-1, her lines were horrid. I've seen Alvarado do this a few times this meet. Coming off the injury he wasn't getting the livest of mounts.

Best of luck though!

precocity
06-25-2014, 10:28 AM
Might want to look at the next race-8th motion and Rosario on the turf 15-1 morning line. :rolleyes:

letswastemoney
06-25-2014, 10:52 AM
I looked. It's an extremely difficult race, and I think Howl will be cooked by the speed.

:6: Protonico (4/1) switched to Pletcher. Maybe he's a new horse? Other than that, nothing stands out.

KidCapper
06-25-2014, 11:24 AM
The :8: & :9: have been scratched in the 7th.

KidCapper

PhantomOnTour
06-25-2014, 01:15 PM
The :8: & :9: have been scratched in the 7th.

KidCapper
Saved by the Vet :D
I think the :4: may offer good value at 8-1 ML

letswastemoney
06-25-2014, 03:15 PM
Saved by the Vet :D
I think the :4: may offer good value at 8-1 ML
I think so too, although I see Jose Ortiz as a negative. TimeformUS projects that horse setting the pace.

Robert Fischer
06-25-2014, 03:41 PM
I like the :2: Venetian Mask @ >2-1.

The :1: Lieutenant Seany O could end up being an overlay include. Doesn't look like a dominant horse, but is an honest, experienced horse.

cool race with a lot of angles

Stillriledup
06-25-2014, 04:09 PM
I like the :2: Venetian Mask @ >2-1.

The :1: Lieutenant Seany O could end up being an overlay include. Doesn't look like a dominant horse, but is an honest, experienced horse.

cool race with a lot of angles

I like the 5 horse coming from Maryland.

Good race!

Robert Fischer
06-25-2014, 04:24 PM
I like the 5 horse coming from Maryland.

Good race!

simple version of my play here =

:2: WPS =$15

exbx:1::2::5::6: = $12

50cent tri :1::2::5::6: / :1::2::3::4::5::6: / :1::2: =$12



basically going against 3,4 somewhat in favor of 1, and playing the 2.

Thebigguy
06-25-2014, 04:25 PM
I agree on the 5. I did not think the 6 would be 2-1. Playing a double 5,6 with 6,8

Thebigguy
06-25-2014, 04:26 PM
I think so too, although I see Jose Ortiz as a negative. TimeformUS projects that horse setting the pace.
Why would that be good in a race with 5 speeds?

Robert Fischer
06-25-2014, 04:30 PM
I looked. It's an extremely difficult race, and I think Howl will be cooked by the speed.

:6: Protonico (4/1) switched to Pletcher. Maybe he's a new horse? Other than that, nothing stands out.

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

Stillriledup
06-25-2014, 04:39 PM
Geez, the 2 and 5 looked fantastic on paper, horses who could have been "any kind" and both ran up the track with not a drop of run.

Tough game.

Robert Fischer
06-25-2014, 05:00 PM
Geez, the 2 and 5 looked fantastic on paper, horses who could have been "any kind" and both ran up the track with not a drop of run.

Tough game.

certainly is.

I whiffed big time.

Kind of logical to support the Pletcher horse with the Nashua try and the high maiden Beyer.
The guys who have followed the trips of 3 and 4 also got rewarded for their capping.

Stillriledup
06-25-2014, 05:53 PM
certainly is.

I whiffed big time.

Kind of logical to support the Pletcher horse with the Nashua try and the high maiden Beyer.
The guys who have followed the trips of 3 and 4 also got rewarded for their capping.

Its really a tough thing for a horse off a big win at one circuit to transfer that nice form to another track, not sure why, but those two horses were big winners at other tracks and just couldn't get around Belmont for whatever reason.