Relatively New to Thoroughbreds

[cmp92]

I grew up watching my dad play the night harness tracks so naturally that's where I got my start. I love harness racing but I'm intrigued by thoroughbred racing. At least enough to try and wager on a regular basis. I'll play the summer meet at Saratoga and some of the Breeders Cup races, but that's about it. I've noticed the large pools, which completely dwarf the size of harness pools, and obviously all the different surfaces and distances.

I'm just curious to see if anyone has any advice pertaining to good tracks to get a start at or watch and handicapping angles. I go to Saratoga every summer and I'm pretty familiar with the NYRA circuit. I know the big names and big races in the sport but that's really about it.

I live near Buffalo, New York. I have four thoroughbred tracks within an hour or so (Woodbine, Presque Isle, Finger Lakes, Fort Erie. I have been to all four). Any of these tracks worthwhile?

Just as a start, I know some people don't like horses going from turf to dirt, but they don't mind dirt to turf. What if you throw synthetic surfaces in the mix? Do horses racing on synthetic tracks like the switch to turf?

Thanks for the help.

[Ocala Mike]

Just as a start, I know some people don't like horses going from turf to dirt




I'm not one of those people. In fact, one of my major angles is to look for a horse who showed early speed in a two-turn turf race dropping back to a 6f or 7f dirt sprint, especially if the horse has won or run well before at today's distance. Many trainers use this as a "conditioning" move.

[Ocala Mike]

PS: Sorry for the red board, but see JULIE NAPP in today's 1st at Belmont. Although a maiden race, the conditioning move seemed to apply.

[JJMartin]

I like Woodbine

[cmp92]

PS: Sorry for the red board, but see JULIE NAPP in today's 1st at Belmont. Although a maiden race, the conditioning move seemed to apply.
I just watched that replay, thanks for the example. To me, that looks like an interesting race. I know Belmont has a huge turn there because of the track size, but it looked like you could throw the 3 out. It looked like Julie Napp was losing ground and falling back on the turn. As soon as they hit the top of the lane, the 3 was right there. Were the fractions too demanding for six furlongs? At first glance, I'd say they weren't bad, but I don't follow closely enough to say for certain.

[HoofedInTheChest]

Woodbine is a great track, but i am biased.

As far as synthetic to turf or vice versa, horses will have similar results going back and forth between the two surfaces, at Woodbine anyway.

When looking at Woodbine and Fort Erie, Woodbine has the "A" stock, whereas Fort Erie has the "B" stock, horses that can't cut it at Woodbine end up in Fort Erie. I like the racing at Fort Erie though, except for the announcer.

Good luck.

[cmp92]

Woodbine is a great track, but i am biased.

As far as synthetic to turf or vice versa, horses will have similar results going back and forth between the two surfaces, at Woodbine anyway.

When looking at Woodbine and Fort Erie, Woodbine has the "A" stock, whereas Fort Erie has the "B" stock, horses that can't cut it at Woodbine end up in Fort Erie. I like the racing at Fort Erie though, except for the announcer.

Good luck.
How do Woodbine horses do at Fort Erie? I tend to think that huge drops in class are highly suspicious. So, I guess a better question to ask is there a huge difference between the lower classes at Woodbine and the better classes at Fort Erie?

[Appy]

cmp92, rule #1 is...Beware crossing paths with a black cat!

:D Just kidding. Ocala is my good friend.

If you're looking for the big score I agree one of the things to look for is the big pools, so you've got that part down. That will tend to condense the list of tracks you play as well which IMO is another way to achieve more consistent positive results.

[Stillriledup]

I grew up watching my dad play the night harness tracks so naturally that's where I got my start. I love harness racing but I'm intrigued by thoroughbred racing. At least enough to try and wager on a regular basis. I'll play the summer meet at Saratoga and some of the Breeders Cup races, but that's about it. I've noticed the large pools, which completely dwarf the size of harness pools, and obviously all the different surfaces and distances.

I'm just curious to see if anyone has any advice pertaining to good tracks to get a start at or watch and handicapping angles. I go to Saratoga every summer and I'm pretty familiar with the NYRA circuit. I know the big names and big races in the sport but that's really about it.

I live near Buffalo, New York. I have four thoroughbred tracks within an hour or so (Woodbine, Presque Isle, Finger Lakes, Fort Erie. I have been to all four). Any of these tracks worthwhile?

Just as a start, I know some people don't like horses going from turf to dirt, but they don't mind dirt to turf. What if you throw synthetic surfaces in the mix? Do horses racing on synthetic tracks like the switch to turf?

Thanks for the help.

What are you looking to do? Are you looking to be a serious bettor and looking to advance your handicapping skills?

As far as your local tracks and are they worthwhile, i would say yes, if you're looking to be a serious bettor, those places are really good to play, the pools are small and your competition isn't as good as the bigger tracks, just the nature of small pools means that if the biggest bettor who bets those places is wrong, you have a massive edge.

Its generally accepted that "turf horses" can handle synthetic, Presque Isle is a tapeta track and i think that the PID surface plays "more fair" than a polytrack surface, PID has the same surface as Golden Gate, so if you see a GG shipper show up at PID there's a reason why, he likes that footing.

[HoofedInTheChest]

How do Woodbine horses do at Fort Erie? I tend to think that huge drops in class are highly suspicious. So, I guess a better question to ask is there a huge difference between the lower classes at Woodbine and the better classes at Fort Erie?
Generally, horses that have a hard time hitting the board at Woodbine, will be sent to Fort Erie. Horses that have a preference for dirt will end up at Fort Erie.

I don't follow Fort Erie all that much, but i would say there is a big difference in class between the two. The purses are a lot higher at Woodbine, so therefore you will get a better class of horses. It really comes down to whether a horse can produce money for an owner, if not, send the horse to where it can. Some trainers like to develop their horses at Fort Erie before bringing them to Woodbine, Josie Carroll is one of them. In the fall you get a lot of Fort Erie horses moving to Woodbine, and for the most part, they don't do very well, but you do get the occasional bomb.

Fort Erie is on it's last legs unfortunately, the provincial government has stopped funding the track and the future doesn't look good.

[cmp92]

What are you looking to do? Are you looking to be a serious bettor and looking to advance your handicapping skills?

As far as your local tracks and are they worthwhile, i would say yes, if you're looking to be a serious bettor, those places are really good to play, the pools are small and your competition isn't as good as the bigger tracks, just the nature of small pools means that if the biggest bettor who bets those places is wrong, you have a massive edge.

Its generally accepted that "turf horses" can handle synthetic, Presque Isle is a tapeta track and i think that the PID surface plays "more fair" than a polytrack surface, PID has the same surface as Golden Gate, so if you see a GG shipper show up at PID there's a reason why, he likes that footing.
It depends on how we define serious. If serious means having a large bankroll, then no. I do bet frequently (3-4 days a week) so in that sense I'm a serious bettor. I'd like to sharpen my handicapping skills and see if I can do better at catching those middle price horses. I usually bet to win and occasionally exactas, trifectas, and doubles.

The thing I have noticed with Presque Isle is that they attract horses from everywhere. I've seen horses from Tampa, Keenland, Penn National, Mountaineer, Parx, Thistledown, River, Beulah, Indiana, Woodbine, Fort Erie, and some of the winter horses at Aqueduct. I like to think that Keenland and other synthetic tracks play similar to Presque Isle, which I don't know if that's accurate. Not to mention all the different distances they've run at. As a harness bettor, I'm not used to seeing lines like that. :confused:

[cmp92]

Generally, horses that have a hard time hitting the board at Woodbine, will be sent to Fort Erie. Horses that have a preference for dirt will end up at Fort Erie.

I don't follow Fort Erie all that much, but i would say there is a big difference in class between the two. The purses are a lot higher at Woodbine, so therefore you will get a better class of horses. It really comes down to whether a horse can produce money for an owner, if not, send the horse to where it can. Some trainers like to develop their horses at Fort Erie before bringing them to Woodbine, Josie Carroll is one of them. In the fall you get a lot of Fort Erie horses moving to Woodbine, and for the most part, they don't do very well, but you do get the occasional bomb.

Fort Erie is on it's last legs unfortunately, the provincial government has stopped funding the track and the future doesn't look good.
Thanks for the input. I'm somewhat familiar with the politics surrounding the track (the same has happened to small Ontario harness tracks).

[Stillriledup]

It depends on how we define serious. If serious means having a large bankroll, then no. I do bet frequently (3-4 days a week) so in that sense I'm a serious bettor. I'd like to sharpen my handicapping skills and see if I can do better at catching those middle price horses. I usually bet to win and occasionally exactas, trifectas, and doubles.

The thing I have noticed with Presque Isle is that they attract horses from everywhere. I've seen horses from Tampa, Keenland, Penn National, Mountaineer, Parx, Thistledown, River, Beulah, Indiana, Woodbine, Fort Erie, and some of the winter horses at Aqueduct. I like to think that Keenland and other synthetic tracks play similar to Presque Isle, which I don't know if that's accurate. Not to mention all the different distances they've run at. As a harness bettor, I'm not used to seeing lines like that. :confused:

No, you don't need a large bankroll to be a serious bettor, all you need is to be very serious about your betting, and you're a serious bettor.

I bet PID on occasion (might even play a little there today) and it plays similar to Golden Gate, and that's a track i know well.

The way i approach PID is to see if a speed horse is overbet and i try and get a few closers home, i don't think speed is unbeatable there, if you get pressed hard, you're probably toast, much like at Golden Gate.

PID plays consistent, if there's a race later there today that i'm betting, i'll handicap it here and talk about my logic and why i'm playing who i'm playing.

(and then you can toss my pick and bet against it lol)

[cmp92]

No, you don't need a large bankroll to be a serious bettor, all you need is to be very serious about your betting, and you're a serious bettor.

I bet PID on occasion (might even play a little there today) and it plays similar to Golden Gate, and that's a track i know well.

The way i approach PID is to see if a speed horse is overbet and i try and get a few closers home, i don't think speed is unbeatable there, if you get pressed hard, you're probably toast, much like at Golden Gate.

PID plays consistent, if there's a race later there today that i'm betting, i'll handicap it here and talk about my logic and why i'm playing who i'm playing.

(and then you can toss my pick and bet against it lol)
I appreciate it and I'll look for your post. The few times I went to PID I noticed that the betting public loves horses that show speed.

What PPs do you use? Do you use an ADW (if you do, which one)?

[Stillriledup]

I'm looking today at the 7th at PID.

I'm a fan of the 3, she's 2 for 2 at PID, she shows gameness and heart and maybe she will be some value with the "slower" Beyer fig in her last start.

The other horse for exotic use is the 7. This is the type of horse who normally catches my eye, she loves PID, she's freshened, she's already shown the ability to win off a long layoff, you get value because of the low percentages of the trainer and jock...she probably won't be able to beat the 3, but maybe for 2nd?

The 4 is a horse i normally throw out at PID, she's never raced on Synthetic and she's speed. Now, she has talent and can win, but at a short price, first time PID trying to go wire to wire is a tough chore, now, if she looks nice on the track and is 4-1, i would consider her, but if she's bet down to 2-1 or something like that, she's the type i'd look to play against.

[cmp92]

I'm looking today at the 7th at PID.

I'm a fan of the 3, she's 2 for 2 at PID, she shows gameness and heart and maybe she will be some value with the "slower" Beyer fig in her last start.

The other horse for exotic use is the 7. This is the type of horse who normally catches my eye, she loves PID, she's freshened, she's already shown the ability to win off a long layoff, you get value because of the low percentages of the trainer and jock...she probably won't be able to beat the 3, but maybe for 2nd?

The 4 is a horse i normally throw out at PID, she's never raced on Synthetic and she's speed. Now, she has talent and can win, but at a short price, first time PID trying to go wire to wire is a tough chore, now, if she looks nice on the track and is 4-1, i would consider her, but if she's bet down to 2-1 or something like that, she's the type i'd look to play against.
Thanks for the analysis. I'll be sure to watch that race and see if I have any questions.

[JustRalph]

Saratoga is a boutique meet. I would never throw a newbie into that water.

Stick with Woodbine. Consistent track with good prices due to good competition

[Clocker]

Stick with Woodbine. Consistent track with good prices due to good competition

Woodbine also has a very stable ( :p ) horse population, so you don't have a lot of unknowns from shippers. There are some cheap horses that go back and forth from Fort Erie, but most seem to run there for the whole meet.

[Tom]

Woodbine - hands down, #1 track!

[HoofedInTheChest]

What PPs do you use? Do you use an ADW (if you do, which one)?
If you're looking for PP's, RDSS is a good place to start if you're looking for computer driven software. The software is inexpensive and the PP's are inexpensive as well, and it's free to try for 30 days as well as the PP's. You can find the software at the "Pace and Cap" website. Ted will be more than happy to help you out.

As well, TimeformUS is very interesting as well, it has some great qualities and ratings and is a little more expensive than most, but it's worth the money in my opinion.

You are probably already aware of DRF and Bris, they are the industry standard.

There are others out there but for someone new to thoroughbreds, the learning curve is steep.

If you're looking for straight PP's, i would try Whobet, they are free but i'm not sure if you can get every track.

Ted, cj, you owe me a beer! ;)

[Stillriledup]

Thanks for the analysis. I'll be sure to watch that race and see if I have any questions.

A lot of those types of horses perish at short odds, speed horses who have never tried the surface. This one won, but a lot of them get beat.

[cmp92]

A lot of those types of horses perish at short odds, speed horses who have never tried the surface. This one won, but a lot of them get beat.
Interesting. The field is pretty small, so wouldn't that make it hard to distinguish speed and off the pace running styles? After all, the field stayed pretty tight until the head of the stretch.

[cmp92]

I appreciate all the input. I'll start looking closely at Woodbine.

[Stillriledup]

Interesting. The field is pretty small, so wouldn't that make it hard to distinguish speed and off the pace running styles? After all, the field stayed pretty tight until the head of the stretch.

Each horse has their own style, you'll see more 'bunching up' at PID because it runs more like a turf race, i'm not sure what kind of kickback that track gets, but i would imagine its not a spray like SA or some other track with bad kickback.

There are 3 types of runners for the most part, 1) Extremely quick hitch types who are usually on the lead or battling for it 2) stalkers who have a versatile style, they can go to the lead or sit a few lengths off if need be 3) plodders who are way back and make one run, they just don't have enough speed to keep up, but they usually can sustain a long run better.

Usually, you can tell from the PPs which horse is which......but, if you do extensive video replay work, and watch each horse as an individual and how they move, you can probably get a better handle on each horse and their strengths and weaknesses.

[cmp92]

How about layoffs and how frequently thoroughbreds run?

In harness, horses can race just about every week. Running that frequently gives handicappers consistent form to use when wagering. It obviously doesn't always hold up, but it helps.

How long is too long of a layoff? Given that thoroughbreds race less than standardbreds, doesn't that make it enticing for longshots to try and get a piece since they'll have few opportunities to make some money?

[Stillriledup]

How about layoffs and how frequently thoroughbreds run?

In harness, horses can race just about every week. Running that frequently gives handicappers consistent form to use when wagering. It obviously doesn't always hold up, but it helps.

How long is too long of a layoff? Given that thoroughbreds race less than standardbreds, doesn't that make it enticing for longshots to try and get a piece since they'll have few opportunities to make some money?

Yes, T breds are usually ready to go, connections don't want to "waste" a start because any start could be your last, so they're usually ready.

I would say the layoffs are too long if its over 8 months, but of course, that depends on the circuit, the horse, the situation, etc.

[cmp92]

Besides people like Jamie Ness and David Jacobson, who are some other trainers that "have horses ready"?