Handicapping 101

[Tom]

Fed Ex just pulled up with my copy, hot off the presses. Hardover, 233+pages, looks like a well organized book about he fundamentla factors and one handicapper's advice about how to best use them.
Sunny day, cold beer, lawn chair, new book....dosen't get any better than this. Intil the weather get hot and my next door neighbor puts on her bikini to mow the lawn......:rolleyes:

[122425]

With the weather up here Tom, you probably won't see the bikini till the end of August!!

[Tom]

Noting like springtime in Western NY...I've got 9" of grass growing out of 6" of water. Anyone know where I buy pontoons for my mower? :D

[BillW]

Originally posted by Tom
Noting like springtime in Western NY...I've got 9" of grass growing out of 6" of water. Anyone know where I buy pontoons for my mower? :D

Tom,

I find a kelp harvester useful. :p

Bill, from down here in the swamp

[andicap]

Tom, never heard of this book. Who wrote it and what approach does it take?

[Speed Figure]

Andicap,

It's by Brad Free at drf.http://store.drf.com/acb/showdetl.cfm?&DID=7&Product_ID=5729&CATID=18&objectgroup_ID=460&af_id=37

[andicap]

Does the book or the DRF ever say if he is a winning horseplayer or just a writer?

I think every author should have to give an accounting of how he does at the track. Why should I buy a book from a guy who doesn't have a positive ROI? I'm not sayinig Brad Free is a losing horseplayer, but can someone tell me that he is for sure?

If so, I'll buy the book.

if not, he can read mine.

[kitts]

I have the book and have read it. I was dubious as I really don't need a primer. However, after getting into it, I am glad I did. It is good now and then to learn the reason behind things I do automatically. I like Brad Free (and could care less if he has a positive ROI-I have learned a lot from negative ROI players) and I was with Cynthia Publishing when Brad tried All-In-One which he mentions in his book. I found the book entertaining and informative. I have paid more for much much less

[Derek2U]

i promised myself 2 read more & so i'm gonna get some
capping books. actually i'm sorta reading one now thats
being written and its real good ... it needs more clarity and i'm
helping this dude clarify. its tough thinking hard for 15 mins
every day. it seems endless like when you gel your hair and its
not perfect but you know .. once gel is in its like roaches ... you
gotta be spiritual or somethin.

[Richard]

Just got the book today myself.Based on what I've read here,I will take my time to insure I closely understand the text.Introduction so far has been pretty good.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Your typing is improving greatly! Must be the 15 minutes!!LOL!!

[jbjints]

I was under the impression that the book wasn't being released until June, where did you all buy the book from? Is the book worth a read?

[Richard]

I ordered my copy through Barnes & Noble.

[Dan]

Originally posted by Tom
Until the weather get hot and my next door neighbor puts on her bikini to mow the lawn......:rolleyes:

Tom,

Oh, you have one of those neighbors, too. My next door neighbor wears a thong when she mows.

:)

[cj]

What's the big deal? I wear a thong when I mow too! ;)

[Dan]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
What's the big deal? I wear a thong when I mow too! ;)
;)

I guess I get looks from her too when I'm mowing wearing my jock strap.

:D

"Honey, where's the Coppertone? My cheeks are getting red."

[Tom]

I got my copy from DRF.

[Turfday]

I know Brad Free well. In fact, I'm mentioned in his book. And whereas Andicap feels that he wants to know if the author or, for that matter, any author is a "winning player"...I take issue with that.

Some of the best coaches or managers never played a down or were bush leaguers.

[andicap]

I think that's a bit different. Those are people who didn't have the physical abilities to reach the majors. Would you learn chess from a novice or a grandmaster? Politics, from Karl Rove/Bill Clinton or someone who never got past city council?

I would listen to a handicapper who didn't have a positive ROI if he was an excellent picker of horses but a lousy bettor. And vice versa (good bettor, lousy capper I'd want to know how he bet).

But you know what they say, "Those that can't do teach. Those that can't teach, teach gym."

My teachers at graduate school were all accomplished professionals in journalism. Why would I take courses from someone who was not a success in my chosen field? Would a law student take courses from someone who was not a lawyer?

I want evidence that Brad Free -- or any other author -- can pick horses successfully. He doesn't have to make a living from it or be a great bettor, just an accomplished handicapper. Just because he writes for the Form and has influential friends doesn't convince me his advice is any great shakes.

One concession: I like to read handicapping books for enjoyment and can see buying it if you do so with your eyes and brain wide open -- just as I might read a novel for enjoyment.

I get great advice for free on this board all the time from successful handicappers. I also give out advice here and people are free to discard it because there is no evidence that I am a winning horseplayer. But maybe I should write a book anyway since I write for a living and have been playing the horses for 25 years. I mean, it couldn't be any worse than the "Dot System."

If Free were to post his record betting, I would even believe him based on the personal charactor recommendations given on this board.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by andicap
If Free were to post his record betting, I would even believe him based on the personal charactor recommendations given on this board.

This brings up the inevitable question.........

Define "successful handicappers"

just wondering?

[BIG RED]

.......whatsa madda wid dat? I took my mother and aunt to Rockingham Park for the weekend and showed my aunt 'the dot system'. She left $2.30 ahead, she felt like she was in heaven!

She never made a wager probably in her life.

[BMeadow]

<<I want evidence that Brad Free -- or any other author -- can pick horses successfully. He doesn't have to make a living from it or be a great bettor, just an accomplished handicapper. Just because he writes for the Form and has influential friends doesn't convince me his advice is any great shakes.

One concession: I like to read handicapping books for enjoyment and can see buying it if you do so with your eyes and brain wide open -- just as I might read a novel for enjoyment. >>

This is the theme for the first column I've writing for American Turf Monthly, which is scheduled to debut in August. Part of what I wrote:

"...In most areas of life, you have to prove that you know what you're talking about. You have to attend school for some specified period of time and attain a particular degree, spend an internship in the profession, pass certification tests, write for peer-reviewed journals, or spend years working in the industry. No such qualifications exist for horse-racing handicappers..."

So I don't entirely dismiss this argument.

That said, I believe it's foolish to reject the thoughts of other handicappers entirely, simply because they may not have won hundreds of thousands of dollars gambling. It's reasonable to think that in the course of a 250-page book, a handicapping author is going to give you something to think about--some insightful way of thinking about handicapping and/or betting.

Whether somebody has made a fortune, or zero, gambling is a function of many other factors other than pure handicapping ability (self-discipline, wagering skill, confidence, time, etc.).

If I subscribe to a workout service, I want to know whether the person knows what he's looking at--not whether he's a successful gambler.

If I subscribe to a trip notes service, I want to know whether the chart writer can observe horses well and write coherently about their trips--not whether he's a successful gambler.

If I subscribe to a pace-figure service, I want to know whether that person is conscientious and careful--not whether he's a successful gambler.

What I do find strange is that players will wager thousands of dollars over the course of year, unsuccessfully, yet want to hear from a dozen players whether they should spend $25 for a book. I've got well over 100 handicapping books in my library--some good, some terrible--but every one has contributed something to me (even if it's what NOT to do). How many of these writers made any money at the track? I don't know--but I do know that without them, I wouldn't have the knowledge I have now.

Gambling on horses requires a lot of skill and talent and hard work, as well as the occasional piece of good luck. Just because somebody hasn't done so doesn't mean he has nothing to say.

What does irk me is when somebody CLAIMS he has made a lot of money gambling, yet when you go to the track with him he's betting $20 a race. But what's wrong with an author who tries to help you, writes in a no-hype style, and has some good information such as Brad Free? Geez, his title is Handicapping 101, not How To Make A Trillion Dollars At The Track.

[schweitz]

Originally posted by BMeadow
<<

I believe it's foolish to reject the thoughts of other handicappers entirely, simply because they may not have won hundreds of thousands of dollars gambling. It's reasonable to think that in the course of a 250-page book, a handicapping author is going to give you something to think about--some insightful way of thinking about handicapping and/or betting.

I've got well over 100 handicapping books in my library--some good, some terrible--but every one has contributed something to me (even if it's what NOT to do). How many of these writers made any money at the track? I don't know--but I do know that without them, I wouldn't have the knowledge I have now.

Gambling on horses requires a lot of skill and talent and hard work, as well as the occasional piece of good luck. Just because somebody hasn't done so doesn't mean he has nothing to say.



I couldn't agree more---It's rare that I don't get some bit of information from a handicapping book that gets me to thinking and looking at things from a different perspective--sometimes this doesn't help but sometimes it does.