Bed O' Roses Gr3 - Bel R9

[PhantomOnTour]

Full and competitive field of eleven. Finding the winning ex or tri will take some work - let's get to it.

Initially, I like :7: Calistoga the most, and considering :3: Flattering Bea as a longshot.
Calistoga is lightly raced & needs to regain her 3yr old form, and appears to be heading that way. Started her career with two very nice wins at GP. Then ran pretty well in a Gr3 before hitting the bench. GP form this winter was lacking, but as soon as she got away from the paved highway her off the pace tactics got her a win. That last figure is more like it and she will get a great pace set up...going to be there for a share for top notch connections. No way her 12-1 ML holds, guessing at about 7-1 for her at post time.
What about Flattering Bea? My numbers for her last two put her right there with the best in this group, but her on the pace style may get her cooked. Her CT race was excellent, but note that this is the first year I've done figs for CT so every number has an asterisk by it...seen?
I feel better about her because the Pim figure is also competitive in here.
Also note that I am a Crystal Pickett sucker on Preakness weekend, and this gal has run well two yrs in a row on Susan Day...almost shocked us all at 52-1 in 2013 and ran very well again this year. So there's some sentimentality to this pick...play at your own risk. I want more than the 10-1 ML...require 14-1 for a play.

On the record trying to beat :8: Merry Meadow, who is classy and consistent, but is just too slow if some others run their best.
I will use :5: Hot Stones as a win candidate and I'm on the fence about how to use :10: Street Girl, who looks the part with the expected pace shake out in front of her, but she doesn't win much.

As of now...
EX: :3: :7: w :3: :5: :7: :8: :10:
EX: :5: w :3: :7:
WIN: :3: :7: but only at required price or better

Good luck, who ya' got?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:9: is piquing my interest.

Obviously she was up against it in the Ogden Phipps, but it is interesting that they are turning her right back in 2 weeks with a cut back to a distance she can handle. Last time she came back on short rest (1 week) she ran huge at the same track and distance. Biggest problem is if she can come off the pace here because she won't be getting the lead in here with these.

Really like your :5: in here and the :3: and :7: are interesting. Also agree on the :10: , looks the part, but damn she just doesn't win.

Wondering if the :4: will get bet or not? Obviously a big jump up in class, but lightly raced and 2 for 2 at the track and distance with some nice recent works. Likely not ready for these, but will pay attention to the tote board.

[PhantomOnTour]

:9: is piquing my interest.

Obviously she was up against it in the Ogden Phipps, but it is interesting that they are turning her right back in 2 weeks with a cut back to a distance she can handle. Last time she came back on short rest (1 week) she ran huge at the same track and distance. Biggest problem is if she can come off the pace here because she won't be getting the lead in here with these.

Really like your :5: in here and the :3: and :7: are interesting. Also agree on the :10: , looks the part, but damn she just doesn't win.

Wondering if the :4: will get bet or not? Obviously a big jump up in class, but lightly raced and 2 for 2 at the track and distance with some nice recent works. Likely not ready for these, but will pay attention to the tote board.
Yes, the :9: is one to look at (as are many), but the two 6f works before the Phipps makes me wonder...were they actually thinking of doing some damage in that field? Works seem geared towards a stretch out.
Still, she went berserk early and stopped, which may have her keen on the cutback...but other than her latest win she is a ground loser in the lane and I can only use her underneath. Five GrStks races showing in her pp's and no wins.

[Tall One]

Like the way Levine has the :5: coming into this one. Won on the turn back, Irad returns, and can see him stalking a decent pace from his post.

:4: is intriguing. Needed those last two off the layoff..Probable pace horse, and outworked the :10: on the 15th. The :4: is one of two horses Kenneally has won with at the meet...might try and steal this one up front, i'll be watching the board as well.

:2: Quiet trainer, but attracts Castellano, has been working stellar, some decent showings against better. Pace factor to hang on in money?

:7: I agree that we probably wont see close to that m/l. No surprise Rosario stays, Mott has been patient with this one, and she should fit in here. Tote on this one too.

EX: :5: :7: / :4: :8: :10:

EX: :4: / :5: :7: :8: :10:

TRI: :5: :7: / :5: :7: / :2: :4: :8: :10:


Nice looking card up there tomorrow. Good luck, all :ThmbUp:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Yes, the :9: is one to look at (as are many), but the two 6f works before the Phipps makes me wonder...were they actually thinking of doing some damage in that field? Works seem geared towards a stretch out.
Still, she went berserk early and stopped, which may have her keen on the cutback...but other than her latest win she is a ground loser in the lane and I can only use her underneath. Five GrStks races showing in her pp's and no wins.

Yep. My big concern is her inability to pass anybody and she needs to be on the lead for any chance. With the speed to her inside she'll have to work too hard to get it and will likely fade either way. More I look, the more I struggle to see her hitting the board.

Race really looks to set up for someone to come from off the pace. No more excuses for the :10:, time to step up and win something of note as this looks to be a perfect set up for her. Still prefer others over her until she proves she can get it done.

Looking hard at :2: :5: :7: on top.

[hopbet]

My concern with "Hot Stones" the horse is a "NY Bred"

[Tall One]

My concern with "Hot Stones" the horse is a "NY Bred"


Both of her wins this year were in open company, and don't discount that last out against LaVerdad. Levine has struggled this meet, but has a nice angle here, and with her running style, she could get the trip from that post..9/10 lifetime itm and I like her in the exotics today at what should be fair odds.

[Robert Fischer]

this race is too hard for me.



:7: Calistoga should get a great trip. Her race 2 back was troubled, and that adds legitimacy to her last easy win.

:9: Classic Point should quit here. But her best races certainly give her a chance to win.

:4: Ultimate Shopper is another horse with an outside chance at running a race that Calistoga cannot sweep by. Ultimate Shopper is more talented than a bunch of these but she looks likely to tire late.

[Ocala Mike]

Very tough race, indeed. Looking for the :1: , TABLE THREE TEN, to outrun its odds with a good trip.

[Tom]

this races screams mediocre to me.
Lots of horses over their heads in a phony graded race.
Take the three highest TFUS spotlight ratings and bet the two going off at the higher odds.

Not a race to waste much time looking at. It is a luck race, not a talent race.

[iceknight]

Like the way Levine has the :5: coming into this one. Won on the turn back, Irad returns, and can see him stalking a decent pace from his post.
EX: :5: :7: / :4: :8: :10:

EX: :4: / :5: :7: :8: :10:

TRI: :5: :7: / :5: :7: / :2: :4: :8: :10:


Nice looking card up there tomorrow. Good luck, all :ThmbUp: Good call on the winner and exacta play!

[Tall One]

Thanks, ice...


Sweated out a couple beers on that photo, but I've since regrouped.. :faint:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Thanks, ice...


Sweated out a couple beers on that photo, but I've since regrouped.. :faint:

Flat out giddy about how much that race paid. You basically have the top 4 favorites (6/1 over 5/1 over 4/1 over 9/2, everybody but the :4: that was taking a big step up in class), and the Tri pays $250 and the Super pays $760. And the :5: paying a solid $15.40 to win.

Thanks to Phantom for getting me on the :7: . :ThmbUp:

[PhantomOnTour]

Glad someone here hit the race, I ran first and third (maybe you get paid for that at Ascot or Hong Kong) :D

Tough race to handicap and my top choice #7 went off as the chalk from a 12-1 ML. Truthfully, if I hadn't bet the race early before for work I would have bet less on #7 at that price...but more on my other choice #3 who went off much higher than her ML (and ran 2nd to last).
Merry Meadow ran tough again and was unlucky to lose. I was against her, but used the winner over my top choices, 3 & 7.

No dice

[Matt Bryan]

Curious. I too liked the 3 and 7, but ultimately passed the race - good thing. Anyway, I was confused about the 11, and wonder why everyone eliminated him - if you still remember.

Thanks.

[Matt Bryan]

The 11 hadn't won over 6f, but I probably would have had him in the exotics.