Suspicious Bet down

[mrroyboy]

This is one of my pet peeves. The first race tonight, the 9 horse was 15-1 in the ml and showed nothing. Got bet off the board and won. That kind of stuff is what turns new comers away.

[JustRalph]

This is one of my pet peeves. The first race tonight, the 9 horse was 15-1 in the ml and showed nothing. Got bet off the board and won. That kind of stuff is what turns new comers away.

Where?

[cmp92]

Where?
I believe the Meadowlands Race 1. He was 15-1 ML and went off at 4-1.

Southwind Poseidon. I think they said he's Hambletonian eligible.

[titans1127]

Just like at Yonkers I would say its a matter of a bad morning line oddsmaker.

[LottaKash]

Just like at Yonkers I would say its a matter of a bad morning line oddsmaker.

Just off of the program page, I would say this is it...Bad line...

This guy only had 4 starts so far this season, and tho he wouldn' have been my top pick, he did have some upside to him....He seemed to have gotten over his breaking problems, at least per last out, and so, this horse in all reality didn't have a decent shot yet to show what he can really do yet....

Hey, the guy took the money, and responded in kind with a win....

That is the way of the NW's races, they are just unreliable as being serious money makers, at least in my opinion....

I used to think that I had the NW's races down pretty good....But, just when you think you have a lock & a price, these young ones will let you down more than lift you up, so many times...

Especially this time of the year when the late bloomers are finally getting the hang of things...

[traynor]

This is only unusual to those who believe PPs contain all the information necessary to predict every winner. They do not. No chicanery or dishonesty is (necessarily) involved. PPs are history, and horses race in the present.

The situation described happens almost every day, and--rather than pointing out deficiencies in the person constructing the morning line--points out the deficiencies of relying exclusively on PPs to compare entries.

[traynor]

Personally, I am much more interested in second looks at entries that take healthy support that is not predictable by the PPs. Anyone can (and usually does) bet the obvious choices, or entries that "figure" for one reason or another. The real profit is elsewhere.

[mrroyboy]

I agree with all of those things. I don't think it is the ML. I'm just saying that when off the wall horses win people get upset. Add the Sears thing and the so called" Championship Meet" at Meadowlands a lot of fans are being turned off.

[traynor]

I agree with all of those things. I don't think it is the ML. I'm just saying that when off the wall horses win people get upset. Add the Sears thing and the so called" Championship Meet" at Meadowlands a lot of fans are being turned off.

Yes, but there is a flip side. I spent most of the spring in British Columbia (Fraser Downs, seriously). Initially, I did about as well as Beyer in his initial trip to Australia. However, when I paid attention to what was going on, I realized there was a pattern to the wagering that was incongruous, given the "readily available" data (mostly PPs). There are some VERY shrewd bettors there, and when a "shows nothing" entry took specific types of wagering, it was almost a lock. Conversely, entries that looked like standouts on paper that were "overlays" performed poorly.

I lightened up on the "overlays," passed the "underlays," and did quite well with the entries going off at 4/5 to 3/1 (max). Specifically, when I thought an entry had a good shot at winning, and that entry went off at odds greater than 3/1, it rarely won. So rarely that I stopped betting them.

That is not a generic philosophy. It applied only to Fraser Downs. When one sees an occasional winner that "doesn't figure" it is easy to think that something suspicious is going on. When one sees it often enough to understand the pattern, it looks completely different. I think it is that some fairly serious bettors have some more current information than that available in PPs, that indicate one horse is better (currently) than it seems, or that or more of the others is/are worse (currently) than it/they seem.

[LottaKash]

I lightened up on the "overlays," passed the "underlays," and did quite well with the entries going off at 4/5 to 3/1 (max). Specifically, when I thought an entry had a good shot at winning, and that entry went off at odds greater than 3/1, it rarely won. So rarely that I stopped betting them.

That is not a generic philosophy.

I agree Traynor....About a half a dozen years or so, I became interested in Fraser Downs, you know for a fresh look....But what happened to me is just what you have said....Boy, with my "generic handicapping" in use, man did I ever get spanked on a steady basis....Until I wised up at least somewhat, and had become more in tune with the nature of the game that is played there....

On another note, with Bill Davis out of a lot of horses, due to that horrific barn fire, I wonder what will become of the quality of the racing there ?...He is a pillar of consistencey and good horsemanship, both on the training and driving end of things imo...

[traynor]

I agree Traynor....About a half a dozen years or so, I became interested in Fraser Downs, you know for a fresh look....But what happened to me is just what you have said....Boy, with my "generic handicapping" in use, man did I ever get spanked on a steady basis....Until I wised up at least somewhat, and had become more in tune with the nature of the game that is played there....

On another note, with Bill Davis out of a lot of horses, due to that horrific barn fire, I wonder what will become of the quality of the racing there ?...He is a pillar of consistencey and good horsemanship, both on the training and driving end of things imo...

The fire was horrible, but I think there is more than enough local support to keep the quality of racing at Fraser Downs better than many might expect. A number of the locals are fairly serious bettors on the Sha Tin/Happy Valley circuit. BC is one of the most pleasant places on the planet for betting horse races. I am really looking forward to September (when live racing resumes).