testing

[Capper Al]

Soon the first phase of my new program will be tested. It is always difficult to determine if an individual attribute has value. Using only strike rate or only ROI doesn't quite get it. The problem, in this complex game, is that an attribute on its own may not be profitable but could be supportive in a comprehensive mix. Frederick Davis instead of tracking the top rated attribute's hit rate only, would track any of the top three ranked hit rates. If the hit rate for any of the top three came in at over 62%, it was considered good. This makes sense. Consider you found a factor that wasn't time or speed based with the top three having a strike rate of 70%. Now you have your contenders in your new found factor.

[cashmachine]

Using only strike rate or only ROI doesn't quite get it.

Why ROI is not good? After all it is ROI you are interested in. Hit rate of top three choices doesn't take into account field size, nor odds of those three horses. I think ROI is less misleading.

[Capper Al]

Why ROI is not good? After all it is ROI you are interested in. Hit rate of top three choices doesn't take into account field size, nor odds of those three horses. I think ROI is less misleading.

Most cappers who test use strike rate (win percentage) or ROI or impact value. Probably most don't test. But those that do test very few succeed.

[Capper Al]

What I'm suggesting is that there might be needed other ways to look at results. Given the idea that in a comprehensive mix that the sum is expected to be greater than the whole, an isolated factor may not be needed to be profitable on it's own.

[whodoyoulike]

Soon the first phase of my new program will be tested. It is always difficult to determine if an individual attribute has value. Using only strike rate or only ROI doesn't quite get it. The problem, in this complex game, is that an attribute on its own may not be profitable but could be supportive in a comprehensive mix. Frederick Davis instead of tracking the top rated attribute's hit rate only, would track any of the top three ranked hit rates. If the hit rate for any of the top three came in at over 62%, it was considered good. This makes sense. Consider you found a factor that wasn't time or speed based with the top three having a strike rate of 70%. Now you have your contenders in your new found factor.

Who is Fredrick Davis?

Are you blindly betting all or some of the top three (or xx number of) rated attributes or those over 62% or whatever? You aren't considering the distance, pace or speed for the race? Or, is it incorporated in the attributes?

Are you going to provide real time examples of handicapping with your new program?

I'm always interested in different (or new) approaches to handicapping. It's the way one improves.

Thanks,

[Capper Al]

Who is Fredrick Davis?

Are you blindly betting all or some of the top three (or xx number of) rated attributes or those over 62% or whatever? You aren't considering the distance, pace or speed for the race? Or, is it incorporated in the attributes?

Are you going to provide real time examples of handicapping with your new program?

I'm always interested in different (or new) approaches to handicapping. It's the way one improves.

Thanks,

Betting on nothing. I'm actually going to test on paper so to speak. I'm not testing a selection method but only one factor, class ratings. I will be comparing mine to BRIS'. BRIS does do an excellent job with their race ratings (RR) and their class ratings (CR). Eventually, I will be providing real time examples. If you are looking for new approaches and are not using BRIS' class ratings, I suggest that you look into them.

[Capper Al]

Fred Davis wrote Percentages & Probabilities back in the day, a long time ago. It is a classic handicapping book.

[classhandicapper]

I'm not testing a selection method but only one factor, class ratings. I will be comparing mine to BRIS'. BRIS does do an excellent job with their race ratings (RR) and their class ratings (CR).

Interested in the results.

[Capper Al]

Am surprised that more developers haven't jumped into this conversation. Testing methods might be as propriety as formulas.

[traynor]

Am surprised that more developers haven't jumped into this conversation. Testing methods might be as propriety as formulas.

Yuh. Especially the ones that work.

[dkithore]

Betting on nothing. I'm actually going to test on paper so to speak. I'm not testing a selection method but only one factor, class ratings. I will be comparing mine to BRIS'. BRIS does do an excellent job with their race ratings (RR) and their class ratings (CR). Eventually, I will be providing real time examples. If you are looking for new approaches and are not using BRIS' class ratings, I suggest that you look into them.

AL,

I use BRIS CR regularly but have not figured out use of RR. Does it mean theoretically, higher RR and CR are better? Is that it?

Do you mind telling me how You use it? Thx.

[Billnewman]

I think RR means the average class of that race

[Capper Al]

AL,

I use BRIS CR regularly but have not figured out use of RR. Does it mean theoretically, higher RR and CR are better? Is that it?

Do you mind telling me how You use it? Thx.

It does indirectly because because CR is based off RR or vise versa. They are related, and yes higher is better.

[Capper Al]

I think RR means the average class of that race

Agree.

[dkithore]

Thanks Capper Al.

[Capper Al]

Wow! I flew through speed and fractional times to get down down the basics, but class is another thing. Coming up with a class formula is much more complicated and time consuming. Still, I should be testing class figs here in the forum soon.

[HUSKER55]

just a thought....not necessarily a good one....

I get the idea of using the strike rate. But the more races you use the more diluted are the results. Today's race can not be repeated nor duplicated, therefore, any punter is handicapping "trends".

I would think ROI would be a better indicator of trends. Suppose the average odds of your undertaking comes in the 6/1 to 10/1 range, but it is a killer at that range.

Your strike method will might miss it while the ROI would indicate a better return.

I am thinking you need to use both and know where and when it works best.

Hope I explained my point right.

Good Luck!

[Capper Al]

I'm old fashioned playing around with earnings and average purse value. what's tricky is these change by track and classification.

[whodoyoulike]

I don't understand your methodologies. Are you only considering horses within odds of (6-1) or some range and horses within certain ranges of earnings and purse value? You don't consider pace, class, form, speed etc., in your handicapping.

[Capper Al]

I don't understand your methodologies. Are you only considering horses within odds of (6-1) or some range and horses within certain ranges of earnings and purse value? You don't consider pace, class, form, speed etc., in your handicapping.

I'm not clear on who you are addressing this to. But for me, at the time, I'm researching away on the class factor only. I am a comprehensive handicapper, so when I cap I take all the other factors that you mentioned into account also.