Chad Brown at Parx

[pele polo]

After today, he is an unreal 10: 9-1-0

[Stillriledup]

Wait, you mean he LOST a race? :D

Wonder how that happened.

[Track Phantom]

He had two horses entered in the same race and they ran 1st and 2nd. I wonder what is in his medicine bag.

[the little guy]

He had two horses entered in the same race and they ran 1st and 2nd. I wonder what is in his medicine bag.

What were the odds of all these, apparently, improbable winners? I say improbable, because you have decided to accuse a guy who has no positives of being a cheater, thus all these winners must have been big prices that showed dramatic form reversals.

[Exotic1]

After today, he is an unreal 10: 9-1-0
I bet the #9 in that race to beat the #2. The #9 was passing the #2 but after a wide trip the #9 gave it up to the #2. Cj's figures had the winner of the 9th at 20-1.

[letswastemoney]

It would have been odd if Cousin Stephen went from being on the Derby trail to losing an allowance race at PARX.

[pele polo]

It would have been odd if Cousin Stephen went from being on the Derby trail to losing an allowance race at PARX.

for nx1 it was pretty tough considering he's a 3yo going against proven older horses

Nice reserve in stretch, with the layoff he had excuse to fold.

Opened at 2/5, which I thought was ridiculous. Paid $4.40.... #6 and #9 showed solid lines.

[TheEdge07]

He had two horses entered in the same race and they ran 1st and 2nd. I wonder what is in his medicine bag.

Whittingham (rip)is smiling..

[horses4courses]

I wonder what is in his medicine bag.

Uncalled for.
At least until proven otherwise.
I'm not sure what his "test positive" history is, but I'd guess it's pretty clean.

The stable is full of quality horses, especially on turf.
No reason why he shouldn't be getting his share of that slot money.

[menifee]

for nx1 it was pretty tough considering he's a 3yo going against proven older horses

Nice reserve in stretch, with the layoff he had excuse to fold.

Opened at 2/5, which I thought was ridiculous. Paid $4.40.... #6 and #9 showed solid lines.

Man that 9 horse loves to hang. I would not say it was a case of Brown's horse showing grit, but the 9's constant habit of waiting on horses.

[Thebigguy]

Uncalled for.
At least until proven otherwise.
I'm not sure what his "test positive" history is, but I'd guess it's pretty clean.

The stable is full of quality horses, especially on turf.
No reason why he shouldn't be getting his share of that slot money.


Its uncalled for all over the internet. On derby-trail these guys in the play along threads bash the winning trainer whenever they post a bet and lose. Baffert gets a ton of abuse over there from this clown pointman.

[NTamm1215]

He had two horses entered in the same race and they ran 1st and 2nd. I wonder what is in his medicine bag.

Not accurate. He has not run two horses in the same race at Parx this year.

His 10 starters at this meet have gone off at 1-10, 4/5, 4/5, 1-1, 1-1, 6/5, 6/5, 2-1, 5/2, and 3-1. Crazy that they've all run well at those odds!

[Stillriledup]

Not accurate. He has not run two horses in the same race at Parx this year.

His 10 starters at this meet have gone off at 1-10, 4/5, 4/5, 1-1, 1-1, 6/5, 6/5, 2-1, 5/2, and 3-1. Crazy that they've all run well at those odds!

But, aren't they overbet because of the trainer? They might have been much higher prices if the horse was trained by Joe Nobody.

[Thebigguy]

But, aren't they overbet because of the trainer? They might have been much higher prices if the horse was trained by Joe Nobody.

I dont think thats the point. Though I did think the horse today was over bet, and Im not sure when he was ever on the Derby Trail like someone said in this thread.... The Tampa Bay Derby trail, possibly?

[NTamm1215]

But, aren't they overbet because of the trainer? They might have been much higher prices if the horse was trained by Joe Nobody.

But aren't they overbet then because the majority of them were getting serious class relief coming from stronger circuits? You can make a myriad of cyclical arguments, but the bottom line is that the trainer in question notoriously spots his horses perfectly and he has cherry picked his way to an incredibly fast start at Parx with the right horses. Assuming that he's cheating while overlooking his history is ignorant.

[Exotic1]

Not accurate. He has not run two horses in the same race at Parx this year.

His 10 starters at this meet have gone off at 1-10, 4/5, 4/5, 1-1, 1-1, 6/5, 6/5, 2-1, 5/2, and 3-1. Crazy that they've all run well at those odds!

Let's leave trickery out of this b/c I have no idea and I wouldn't comment on it if I did.

But I have a question on "bet" horses and the expected result over 10 races.

In this sample, avg public line odds of all 10 runners is 1.4 if you include takeout and they all "seem" to be within a small deviation so let's group them together, why not. Add back the Penn. takeout and avg public line odds would be something like 1.7. What are the chances of you going 9 for 10 on an even money proposition like heads/tails? What are the odds of you going 9 out of 10 on a 1.7/1 proposition? Take out the "hot" trainer factor from the equation (per SRU) and the 1.7 public line may go up to 2 or 2.5 to 1. What are the odds of you going 9 for 10 on a 2.5 to 1 proposition? I don't know if the math holds up and of course the sample is way too small, but hitting .900 is a pretty good accomplishment. Now it may be that the public had it all wrong, that in fact the true odds of each runner in the sample were 1 to 9 and that's why 9 out of 10 won. The truth is the sample is way too small. Hope the fact checkers miss this post b/c the math is probably all screwed up.

[pele polo]

I think this is a case of a trainer placing his horses very well.

If this same horse goes to Saratoga next in a n2x, two turns, He's 15-1.

[Exotic1]

I think this is a case of a trainer placing his horses very well.

If this same horse goes to Saratoga next in a n2x, two turns, He's 15-1.

I completely agree with you.

He is exceptionally talented. The fact that owners place their huge investments in his care is testament to that. Heck, he doesn't need my endorsement. Getting good stock is not an excuse - you earn it.

[Thebigguy]

I think this is a case of a trainer placing his horses very well.

If this same horse goes to Saratoga next in a n2x, two turns, He's 15-1.


Chad Brown is never 15-1. I dont think this horse is very good, at all. But he wont be 15-1 in any 2x.

[pele polo]

Chad Brown is never 15-1. I dont think this horse is very good, at all. But he wont be 15-1 in any 2x.

Well let's see where he lands. Not good enough for stake. Maybe he ships back to Parx. And you're right, he won't be 15-1 at Prx, Del, or Mth. But at Saratoga he would be against older horses going 1 1/8 miles, wich is the shortest two turn dirt race they run.

I said earlier that the n1x he won today was salty... for Parx. But we all know how many 10k claiming types step to win n1x in the Mid Atlantic.

You're also right that Chad Brown is hardly ever 15-1. We'll see where this one lands.

[Thebigguy]

Well let's see where he lands. Not good enough for stake. Maybe he ships back to Parx. And you're right, he won't be 15-1 at Prx, Del, or Mth. But at Saratoga he would be against older horses going 1 1/8 miles, wich is the shortest two turn dirt race they run.

I said earlier that the n1x he won today was salty... for Parx. But we all know how many 10k claiming types step to win n1x in the Mid Atlantic.

You're also right that Chad Brown is hardly ever 15-1. We'll see where this one lands.

I would assume the logical spot for him is the Curlin or Jim Dandy. Like I said, I dont think the horse is very good.

[Track Phantom]

What were the odds of all these, apparently, improbable winners? I say improbable, because you have decided to accuse a guy who has no positives of being a cheater, thus all these winners must have been big prices that showed dramatic form reversals.

I'm not accusing anyone of anything.

[the little guy]

I'm not accusing anyone of anything.


OK, then please tell me how I misread this...


He had two horses entered in the same race and they ran 1st and 2nd. I wonder what is in his medicine bag.

[jballscalls]

OK, then please tell me how I misread this...

Haha! I thought it was a pretty blatant accusation as well.

[Stillriledup]

Haha! I thought it was a pretty blatant accusation as well.

Blatant accusation would have been the guy saying word for word "he's a cheater".

Every trainer/vet uses 'medicine' on horses, so he was just wondering what legal meds the guy has that makes his horses run faster than other people's horses. He didnt actually accuse him of doing anything wrong, anyone who thought so just "Read into" what he wrote and saw what they wanted to see.

[Robert Fischer]

Blatant accusation would have been the guy saying word for word "he's a cheater".

Every trainer/vet uses 'medicine' on horses, so he was just wondering what legal meds the guy has that makes his horses run faster than other people's horses. He didnt actually accuse him of doing anything wrong, anyone who thought so just "Read into" what he wrote and saw what they wanted to see.

Your absurd explanation is also superfluous.
Valento was clearly complimenting Brown, while referencing Native American tradition.

[Stillriledup]

Your absurd explanation is also superfluous.
Valento was clearly complimenting Brown, while referencing Native American tradition.

Exactly. That's what i meant. :D

[Track Phantom]

OK, then please tell me how I misread this...

What's the point? You clearly have the answers. People like us are idiots unless we share your opinion.

I am not accusing anyone of cheating because I have absolutely no idea....nor do you.

[TheEdge07]

What's the point? You clearly have the answers. People like us are idiots unless we share your opinion.

I am not accusing anyone of cheating because I have absolutely no idea....nor do you.

No one knows..

As Jim Mora once said We think we know but we really dont know.This includes the so called insiders.
Btw looks like Jacobson has found a new dump site:rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[the little guy]

What's the point? You clearly have the answers. People like us are idiots unless we share your opinion.

I am not accusing anyone of cheating because I have absolutely no idea....nor do you.

That's quite a response. Always good to go on the attack when you have painted yourself into a corner.

Own what you post...or don't post it. Slamming others because you refuse to only makes you look bad.

[Track Phantom]

That's quite a response. Always good to go on the attack when you have painted yourself into a corner.

Own what you post...or don't post it. Slamming others because you refuse to only makes you look bad.

Not slamming you...just pointing out that you typically don't leave room for another opinion when it contradicts yours...which is fine. I could care less either way.

I think a trainer that wins at 90% at a major race track is using something others aren't. I have no idea if it is illegal (cheating) or just not on the "do not use list" (not cheating but performance enhancing).

[Grits]

I am not accusing anyone of cheating because I have absolutely no idea....nor do you.

This is exactly what you're doing--you're implying that Chad is cheating through use of drugs. You can try and talk your way out of this if you like, but its not flying. You've made the mistake of such claims here before.

I'm not an industry insider, I'm not anybody. But. Chad's mom and dad, Jerry and Patti are two of my best friends. I care a great deal for Chad, Terrill, their daughters, brother-Todd and fiance'. All are close. I spend most August days with them at Saratoga. These two young men were raised well. They know hard honest work. As far back as early childhood, all Chad ever wanted as a profession was to be a horse trainer--back and forth to the track. He went to Cornell for his education, first. And you believe he's going to throw a lifelong desire away with cheating?

You don't know this man from Adam. You don't know his skill at placing horses, his training regimen, or his business sense. Its really amazing--the quips folks on message boards will regurgitate in anonymity simply because they can. Its a real shame.

[PaceAdvantage]

There are lots of threads on here where people HINT (and that's what Valento did here...he hinted...he did not accuse and did not state as fact that anyone is cheating) at nefarious goings on when a trainer is tearing up a storm. Usually, these comments go quietly into the night, as it's the nature of the business. There are so many dogs in the trainer game, that even if you're an honest trainer, when you lie down with the dogs of this game, you wake up with the appearance of fleas yourself. Meaning, anyone in the training game who has a high percentage is going to be looked at askance.

It's the nature of the beast. Most times, these comments go unchallenged. But here, we have defenders of Chad lining up. Interesting...and appropriate.

[Stillriledup]

This is exactly what you're doing--you're implying that Chad is cheating through use of drugs. You can try and talk your way out of this if you like, but its not flying. You've made the mistake of such claims here before.

I'm not an industry insider, I'm not anybody. But. Chad's mom and dad, Jerry and Patti are two of my best friends. I care a great deal for Chad, Terrill, their daughters, brother-Todd and fiance'. All are close. I spend most August days with them at Saratoga. These two young men were raised well. They know hard honest work. As far back as early childhood, all Chad ever wanted as a profession was to be a horse trainer--back and forth to the track. He went to Cornell for his education, first. And you believe he's going to throw a lifelong desire away with cheating?

You don't know this man from Adam. You don't know his skill at placing horses, his training regimen, or his business sense. Its really amazing--the quips folks on message boards will regurgitate in anonymity simply because they can. Its a real shame.

But the implying part is on you. That's you and others reading into what he said. He either specifically says a person is cheating or he does not, and in this case, i didnt see where he specifically said the guy is a cheat.

[PaceAdvantage]

I believe there are far fewer BIG TIME cheaters in this game than people think. I believe anytime anyone points out a small sample high percentage trainer, it's more likely due to variance than any type of wrongdoing.

So this particular small subset "Chad at Parx" wasn't worthy of any implications of wrongdoing....it can be chalked up to so many other things...

[Stillriledup]

I believe there are far fewer BIG TIME cheaters in this game than people think. I believe anytime anyone points out a small sample high percentage trainer, it's more likely due to variance than any type of wrongdoing.

So this particular small subset "Chad at Parx" wasn't worthy of any implications of wrongdoing....it can be chalked up to so many other things...


When i see a guy 9 for 10 at a meet, i could care less if he's cheating, all i know is that i dont want to bet on him at 4-5 but i dont want to bet against him either. He turns a horse race into a "trainer race". When i see supertrainers with massive win percentages, i'm much more likely to bet less or skip the race entirely.

[Grits]

I believe there are far fewer BIG TIME cheaters in this game than people think. I believe anytime anyone points out a small sample high percentage trainer, it's more likely due to variance than any type of wrongdoing.

So this particular small subset "Chad at Parx" wasn't worthy of any implications of wrongdoing....it can be chalked up to so many other things...

It can. Too, though, is it ok if I question... since when did Parx become a "major track"??? :lol:

[Track Phantom]

There are lots of threads on here where people HINT (and that's what Valento did here...he hinted...he did not accuse and did not state as fact that anyone is cheating) at nefarious goings on when a trainer is tearing up a storm. Usually, these comments go quietly into the night, as it's the nature of the business. There are so many dogs in the trainer game, that even if you're an honest trainer, when you lie down with the dogs of this game, you wake up with the appearance of fleas yourself. Meaning, anyone in the training game who has a high percentage is going to be looked at askance.

It's the nature of the beast. Most times, these comments go unchallenged. But here, we have defenders of Chad lining up. Interesting...and appropriate.

I am not above accusing someone of cheating outright. There are dozens and dozens of trainers who accomplishments are not legitimate.

I do not know anything about Chad Brown. I purposely didn't accuse him of cheating. I am, however, skeptical of anything that results in high percentages over a long period of time especially when facing other trainers that are taking an edge. The lack of proper oversight in this game has brought me to this cynical viewpoint. Believe me, I've been following this game for nearly 30 years. I'd prefer to believe everything I see is legit.

When MLB had shortstops with a career .240 batting average and hitting 3-8 homers a year all of a sudden hit 45 home runs, MLB stepped in and corrected this problem. I was very skeptical of MLB during the time that McGwire and Sosa were hitting homers in every other at-bat. Now, I'm not (as much). I believe the people in charge of that game care about the integrity of the sport and reacted appropriately. That has not happened in horse racing and until it does, most trainers are going to be muddied by their sheer affiliation with guys that are using performance enhancing drugs.

If I were an honest trainer, I would be doing everything I could be doing to shine the light on those that are not honest.

[Exotic1]

There are lots of threads on here where people HINT (and that's what Valento did here...he hinted...he did not accuse and did not state as fact that anyone is cheating) at nefarious goings on when a trainer is tearing up a storm. Usually, these comments go quietly into the night, as it's the nature of the business. There are so many dogs in the trainer game, that even if you're an honest trainer, when you lie down with the dogs of this game, you wake up with the appearance of fleas yourself. Meaning, anyone in the training game who has a high percentage is going to be looked at askance.

It's the nature of the beast. Most times, these comments go unchallenged. But here, we have defenders of Chad lining up. Interesting...and appropriate.

You know, for a smart guy you're also very practical.

[Exotic1]

It can. Too, though, is it ok if I question... since when did Parx become a "major track"??? :lol:

Forget about this nonsense.

Can we get a tip on a Chad firster?

[proximity]

It's the nature of the beast. Most times, these comments go unchallenged. But here, we have defenders of Chad lining up. Interesting...and appropriate.

over the last decade and a half there's been so many ridiculous situations with these out of control trainer percentages that most of the times, valento was probably right. this time he is wrong. it's a world class trainer (whose overall percentage may actually be down a point this year) running horses at parx.

since we are talking about a track where such things are par(x) for the course though..... i don't think we should burn valento at the stake. :)

[moneyandland]

Not slamming you...just pointing out that you typically don't leave room for another opinion when it contradicts yours...which is fine. I could care less either way.

I think a trainer that wins at 90% at a major race track is using something others aren't. I have no idea if it is illegal (cheating) or just not on the "do not use list" (not cheating but performance enhancing).


There's your problem thinking Parx is a major race track, MLB Allstars are going to hit .400 against AA ball, especially if they have a 5-5 game. We're talking about a guy that trains the best of the best vs guys that wouldn't be in the game if they weren't racing 5,000 clms for $35,000 purses. He just as easily could go 0 for 10 and no one would say a peep, it's a small sample size

[Track Phantom]

There's your problem thinking Parx is a major race track, MLB Allstars are going to hit .400 against AA ball, especially if they have a 5-5 game. We're talking about a guy that trains the best of the best vs guys that wouldn't be in the game if they weren't racing 5,000 clms for $35,000 purses. He just as easily could go 0 for 10 and no one would say a peep, it's a small sample size

I tend to agree with you. I said "major race track" to delineate between, say Parx and Portland Meadows. I use Portland Meadows because not that long ago Jerry Hollendorfer shipped runners there and won at a very high percentage (which he should).

[RunForTheRoses]

over the last decade and a half there's been so many ridiculous situations with these out of control trainer percentages that most of the times, valento was probably right. this time he is wrong. it's a world class trainer (whose overall percentage may actually be down a point this year) running horses at parx.

since we are talking about a track where such things are par(x) for the course though..... i don't think we should burn valento at the stake. :)

I agree, substitute Ruy Rodriguez or Jamie Ness and there would be a different reaction. Or none at all. And I am not in agreement with original comment, he has very expensive stock and is pricing it right.

[onefast99]

I tend to agree with you. I said "major race track" to delineate between, say Parx and Portland Meadows. I use Portland Meadows because not that long ago Jerry Hollendorfer shipped runners there and won at a very high percentage (which he should).
For some of us small time owners Parx is a major track to us. We cannot go head to head with the Pletchers on their home turf and expect to do well in this business. Parx gives us that much needed 2nd level competition combined with a good Pa bred program and decent sized purses. Despite the negativity Parx receives it serves a purpose and one that is much needed! As far as Brown goes give the guy credit for placing his runners in perfect spots.

[Mineshaft]

For some of us small time owners Parx is a major track to us. We cannot go head to head with the Pletchers on their home turf and expect to do well in this business. Parx gives us that much needed 2nd level competition combined with a good Pa bred program and decent sized purses. Despite the negativity Parx receives it serves a purpose and one that is much needed! As far as Brown goes give the guy credit for placing his runners in perfect spots.





Bingo we have a winner

[billytk]

look who he's running against

[pele polo]

And he just did it agin in the 9th today. 3/2 with Carmouche up.

Record 11: 10-1-0

[Stillriledup]

And he just did it agin in the 9th today. 3/2 with Carmouche up.

Record 11: 10-1-0

Hmmm. :D

[pele polo]

look who he's running against

Well in this one today without a clear stadout, evenly matched group of 10 he beat...
Parx leading trainers Patricia Farro (2 entries) and Phil Aristone. Alan Goldberg and Bruce Levine (both are decent at Bel and Mth). Michael Trombetta (33% at Prx and good in Md and Ny as well) and Kathleen O'Connell (well known at Tampa). Lawrence Murray and Frank Pollara.

[Stillriledup]

Well in this one today without a clear stadout, evenly matched group of 10 he beat...
Parx leading trainers Patricia Farro (2 entries) and Phil Aristone. Alan Goldberg and Bruce Levine (both are decent at Bel and Mth). Michael Trombetta (33% at Prx and good in Md and Ny as well) and Kathleen O'Connell (well known at Tampa). Lawrence Murray and Frank Pollara.

Exactly. He's running against real trainers who have real horses.

[devilsbag]

The failure to seriously address the medication situation will lead to suspicion and innuendo and racing hasn't given itself much to work with as a defense.

Whatever may or may not have occurred "years ago," the fact of the matter is for a couple of decades there are a number of instances where trainers perform repeated miracles with individual horses and have astronomical win percentages overall. This has coincided with a drug epidemic that permeated most, if not all sports.

If someone hit 70 home runs this year, some would assume he was doing something suspicious. If a guy won the Tour de France three times in a row starting this year, some would assume the same. Horse racing, in its failure to address the situation at hand, is in the same boat and possibly worse, because they have done almost nothing to remedy the problem. To compound it, it's the horses, who are unable to defend themselves, who are the victims.

Whether it was right or wrong, one of the few examples of racing taking a stand was Dick Dutrow. So when a trainer's mentor was closely associated with Dick Dutrow, maybe it's a little easier for an observer to be cynical. Unfair or not, if someone wants to accuse that trainer of something, whatever their reputation might be or where they got their college degree from, maybe it shouldn't be unexpected.

[mutualwagerer]

I cant believe he won again, I was sitting here handicapping yesterday at work and I didn't get a chance to play today before I got to work I would of won the last 7 races at Parx today. DAMN GAMBLING GODS -_-

[nijinski]

Good to see he is doing well and I hope he continues to do well in NY too .

It looks like Porter made some changes and moved Thirteen Arrows and
Normandy Invasion to Jones . I'm waiting to see if that's the case with others
like Coup de Grace . Looks like Fox Hill gets impatient but you can't make
miracles with horses that constantly come up with issues . NI is one of those
and I think Brown worked hard at holding him together .

It's tough keeping everyone happy .

[the little guy]

Good to see he is doing well and I hope he continues to do well in NY too .

It looks like Porter made some changes and moved Thirteen Arrows and
Normandy Invasion to Jones . I'm waiting to see if that's the case with others
like Coup de Grace . Looks like Fox Hill gets impatient but you can't make
miracles with horses that constantly come up with issues . NI is one of those
and I think Brown worked hard at holding him together .

It's tough keeping everyone happy .

They have all been moved.

Porter took Havre de Grace away from Tony Dutrow after he essentially made her into a champion because Larry Jones came out of retirement....for whatever that is worth.

[classhandicapper]

Just out of intellectual curiosity someone should convert the odds of each of his horses into a probability and then see what the probability is for an extreme success rate like this to be random.

You might also want to consider that his horses are probably getting overbet relative to the their PPs at this stage because of his recent success.

[Robert Fischer]

Just out of intellectual curiosity someone should convert the odds of each of his horses into a probability and then see what the probability is for an extreme success rate like this to be random.

You might also want to consider that his horses are probably getting overbet relative to the their PPs at this stage because of his recent success.

The thing about assuming that final odds are an accurate representation of probability, is that every time the the ROI for a sequence is very high, then that sequence will appear to be an improbable event.

[nijinski]

They have all been moved.

Porter took Havre de Grace away from Tony Dutrow after he essentially made her into a champion because Larry Jones came out of retirement....for whatever that is worth.

Thanks TLG ! I assumed that was the case and I agree about Havre De Grace !

[classhandicapper]

The thing about assuming that final odds are an accurate representation of probability, is that every time the the ROI for a sequence is very high, then that sequence will appear to be an improbable event.

Using odds is the only way I can think of to at least try to incorporate the quality of horses he's been running in an objective way. Otherwise instead of trying to figure out how rare a feat like this would be by chance alone we'd be handicapping and arguing about the relative merits of the horses.

That's why I made the point about the prices dropping once he got hot. At a certain point a trainer might be sending out horses that should be 2-1 that are going off at even money because he's hot. If that happens you'd be overestimating the quality of horses he's been sending out.

[Grits]

Devilsbag wrote: Whether it was right or wrong, one of the few examples of racing taking a stand was Dick Dutrow. So when a trainer's mentor was closely associated with Dick Dutrow, maybe it's a little easier for an observer to be cynical. Unfair or not, if someone wants to accuse that trainer of something, whatever their reputation might be or where they got their college degree from, maybe it shouldn't be unexpected.

In racing, there's certainly a good deal of cynicism. However, there's a vast difference between cynical thinking and accusing a trainer of something.

You're going on the ludicrous notion? Dutrow and the late HOF trainer, Bobby Frankel were associates. (Or is it friends?) Brown worked for Frankel prior to going out on his own, so therefore, it shouldn't be unexpected that handicappers/the betting public/fans et al, can "accuse him of something"? You believe this kind of logic rightful? Or worse, validating?

"I can question this trainer's honesty and accuse him accordingly, because he knew Richard Dutrow." I'm sorry, hopefully, you're never called for jury duty. Your accusation makes for a troublesome reach that has no merit. Proof is, as you know, necessary. Form reversals are not there, drug positives and suspensions are not there, etc.

I don't recall dishonesty, cheating, etc, being determined by who one knows.

[Robert Fischer]

Using odds is the only way I can think of to at least try to incorporate the quality of horses he's been running in an objective way. Otherwise instead of trying to figure out how rare a feat like this would be by chance alone we'd be handicapping and arguing about the relative merits of the horses.

That's why I made the point about the prices dropping once he got hot. At a certain point a trainer might be sending out horses that should be 2-1 that are going off at even money because he's hot. If that happens you'd be overestimating the quality of horses he's been sending out.

I agree with you on both points.

Especially the point about the public eventually catching on to a hot trainer.

I mentioned the first point, because even though it would be an interesting exercise, people shouldn't automatically take a hot streak and assume there is something 'statistically improbable' going on.

Brown took a bunch of well meant horses, and he placed them in great spots, and he had some good luck as well.
Some of these horses may have weaknesses when running against the New York stock, that don't get exposed in certain parts of the race vs. the Parx stock.
It's likely that initially most of the Chad Brown horses were overlays, even at low odds. At this point, every weekend warrior is well aware that he's hot, and you have players betting the 2-1 shots down to even money like you are saying.

[devilsbag]

You're going on the ludicrous notion? Dutrow and the late HOF trainer, Bobby Frankel were associates. (Or is it friends?).

I'm not sure it's ludicrous. I think it's fact. You can start with Saint Liam and Wild Desert and work from there.


Brown worked for Frankel prior to going out on his own, so therefore, it shouldn't be unexpected that handicappers/the betting public/fans et al, can [i]"accuse him of something"? You believe this kind of logic rightful? Or worse, validating?.

"I can question this trainer's honesty and accuse him accordingly, because he knew Richard Dutrow." I'm sorry, hopefully, you're never called for jury duty. Your accusation makes for a troublesome reach that has no merit. Proof is, as you know, necessary. Form reversals are not there, drug positives and suspensions are not there, etc.

I will skip the personal attack except to remind you that I haven't accused anyone of anything, and get to the last sentence. The origination of this thread was the fact that a trainer is now 10 for 11 at Parx. Lots of big time New York trainers have shipped out of town, but this is quite an impressive accomplishment.

I don't recall dishonesty, cheating, etc, being determined by who one knows.

Michelle Nevin and Rudy Rodriguez appreciate your kind words.

Since your regard for me seems limited, here's a quote from Andy Beyer, coincidentally regarding Dutrow: "But in an era when certain trainers repeatedly perform feats that defy the laws of nature and the logic of handicapping, bettors invariably suspect that they are using illegal substances."

Someone posted the following here earlier this year:

"Either you folks fix it or we'll fix it for you. Thank you." --signed, Your Federal Government.

This is a reactive statement to a problem that should've been proactive long, long ago.

(...then added...)

At this point, honestly speaking, I'm weary of all of it...



The sad part is that the industry has made its bed and now has to lie in it. You have those who are tired of guessing who is up to something and who isn't, and the other camp who say it's happening but just want to cash tickets. I think you've indicated you're part of the first group, and I know that I am, so try not to blame the messenger because you aren't happy with who is in the spotlight this time.

[Track Phantom]

Just out of intellectual curiosity someone should convert the odds of each of his horses into a probability and then see what the probability is for an extreme success rate like this to be random.

You might also want to consider that his horses are probably getting overbet relative to the their PPs at this stage because of his recent success.

Better yet, go to an insurance underwriter and have him use the data to give you probability statistics on these long term, massive win percentages by the same guys. The odds would be dramatically against it unless these guys are A) Getting far superior horses or B) Do something dramatically different/better for their horse (i.e. better trainers).

[Grits]

Devilsbag wrote:
I'm not sure it's ludicrous. I think it's fact. You can start with Saint Liam and Wild Desert and work from there.

Everyone that knows this sport, knows the friendship that existed between these two trainers. Its simply common knowledge.

Aside from all of this, though, can you expound on what, exactly, Dutrow's horses, Saint Liam and Wild Desert, had, or have to do, with Brown's training career today?

I didn't mean to attack you, and my regard for you isn't limited. Only a bit guarded at this point. My error lies in quoting you. I wrote "can accuse" whereas you had written "may want to accuse." ... You're good. Great save.

[proximity]

maybe mr brown has decided to run jcg game at parx in his spare time, but IN GENERAL most juice trainers are average at best in turf racing and mr brown is a very good turf trainer.

examples: in 2011 jcg was 30% overall, but 10% over the weeds.

also, in 2012 three of the top five trainers by wins at another suspected mid atlantic juice track were a combined 0-40 in turf races.

[Fager Fan]

maybe mr brown has decided to run jcg game at parx in his spare time, but IN GENERAL most juice trainers are average at best in turf racing and mr brown is a very good turf trainer.

examples: in 2011 jcg was 30% overall, but 10% over the weeds.

also, in 2012 three of the top five trainers by wins at another suspected mid atlantic juice track were a combined 0-40 in turf races.

I think you're tying together two things that have nothing to do with each other. The majority of horses and trainers are of the dirt variety. Brown and a few others have a specific reputation for being good with turf horses and receive the top turf horses (many of them imported). Whatever "juice" would or could do for a dirt horse would surely give the same benefit to the turf runner.

[PhantomOnTour]

I haven't read this whole thread, so my apologies if this has been mentioned.

Aren't the medication rules in Pa a little more permissive than NY ?
If so, then I'm just doing a little 2 + 2

[proximity]

I think you're tying together two things that have nothing to do with each other. The majority of horses and trainers are of the dirt variety. Brown and a few others have a specific reputation for being good with turf horses and receive the top turf horses (many of them imported). Whatever "juice" would or could do for a dirt horse would surely give the same benefit to the turf runner.

it may be slightly due to field size but mr brown's dirt percentage is actually better than his turf percentage for both this year and last year.....but just by a point or two, not the big gaps you see for Pennsylvania juice trainers (and some ny).

also the juice could certainly give the same benefit to turf runners but that benefit may not be needed to the same extent in turf racing.

[Stillriledup]

Engine. Race 6 at Belmont, Chad Brown trainer, breaks thru the gate, wins in a laugher anyway, found as many gears as he needed to. Brown over .30 pct at Belmont.

[horses4courses]

Runs the :6: Snake Pit, and with 2 mins to post he is 8-5

Odds dropping fast - approaching gate 6-5

[Grits]

And.......

He won!!! :)

[Stillriledup]

He does it again.

Wide on both turns behind slowish pace for the class, wins going away, had as many gears as he needed!

[horses4courses]

And.......

He won!!! :)

Yep....too good for that bunch.
Nice $46K purse Opt Clm....like taking candy from a baby ;)

[Grits]

Yep....too good for that bunch.
Nice $46K purse Opt Clm....like taking candy from a baby ;)

H4C, yes, it was in 1:37 and change. Not exactly a burning run...:lol:

[horses4courses]

H4C, yes, it was in 1:37 and change. Not exactly a burning run...:lol:

As the saying goes, time only matters when you're in prison ;)

[Thebigguy]

I would assume the logical spot for him is the Curlin or Jim Dandy. Like I said, I dont think the horse is very good.


He is running Friday in the Curlin. Hopefully he gets bet, I dont like him at all in this spot.

[the little guy]

He is running Friday in the Curlin. Hopefully he gets bet, I dont like him at all in this spot.


His owner is a friend of mine. He will be VERY happy to hear this.

[Thebigguy]

His owner is a friend of mine. He will be VERY happy to hear this.

Thanks Andrew.

[Stillriledup]

Battling for the training title at Spa?

[horses4courses]

He had a 1-5 winner yesterday at Parx,
and has one running in 10 mins that should be around even money.

R5 :2:

[lamboguy]

i wonder if he charges the same day money when he runs his owners horses in B tracks for less purse money than in New York?

[horses4courses]

i wonder if he charges the same day money when he runs his owners horses in B tracks for less purse money than in New York?

This MSW has a $44K purse.
He doesn't run them for much less at Parx.

[lamboguy]

i like the #9 MONE THE STORE. hoping he's not a tad short with the 3/8 breeze

[cj]

Actually looked like the 5 had him deep stretch, but it was a mirage.

[lamboguy]

i like the #9 MINE THE STORE. hoping he's not a tad short with the 3/8 breezeran dead last, should be good for the price next time.

[cj]

ran dead last, should be good for the price next time.

How many lengths was a little short? :)

[lamboguy]

How many lengths was a little short? :)no doubt the horse was awful today. but this is how you make money at this game. he just came out of a good 2 turn race with a bad part of the track and got beat about 30 lengths. i don't think think you could ask for anything more for his next race.

i played him today and will take a good shot at him next time.

[horses4courses]

I like :11: today there in R7.
He won't be 12-1.

Hopefully can get some live PK3s and PK4s going.

[cj]

no doubt the horse was awful today. but this is how you make money at this game. he just came out of a good 2 turn race with a bad part of the track and got beat about 30 lengths. i don't think think you could ask for anything more for his next race.

i played him today and will take a good shot at him next time.

I'm just kidding with you, that is why the smiley face. I thought he was 2nd most likely winner today but I couldn't go against The Machine that is Chad Brown.

[lamboguy]

I'm just kidding with you, that is why the smiley face. I thought he was 2nd most likely winner today but I couldn't go against The Machine that is Chad Brown.he does seem to do great on dirt in Parx.

[Stillriledup]

Did SA change their name to Parx. Good god.

[horses4courses]

He's got one today in R8 :10: Cousin Stephen (5-1 ML)
$25K Opt Clm- $46K purse - looks like he is in tough against :5: & :6:

Wow...has he ever cooled off at Parx...now only 16/21 (76%)...slump :lol:

[outofthebox]

The 5 was 4/5 and wore him down late...76% is crazy....