Bris Prime Power Research?

[JoeLong]

Hello all,

I need some help in understanding the composition of this number. Does someone know if the pace match-up of today's race is included when the figure is created, or would the horse receive the same rating regardless of the contention as long as all other categories such as class, surface, distance remained the same?

Thanks in advance - Joe.

[thaskalos]

There are no pace match-up considerations in the creation of this number. It is entirely composed of assumed attributes exhibited by the horse itself.

[JoeLong]

Thanks thaskalos,

I figured as much and hoped it would be the case, good day to you.

Regards - Joe.

[Longshot6977]

Here's some general info on Bris PPs.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/pdf/pp_explanation.pdf

[JackS]

I always look at this number and appreciate that it exists, but I warn you, this number can be just as much misleading as it can be helpful.
Handicappers must make a decision as to weather the number as printed is reasonable.

[Fingal]

When one reads the Bris info sheet mentioned in the other post, one sentence stands out.

" Prime Power measures the quality of each horse's latest starts by combining dozens of handicapping factors into one-easy-to use rating. "

Sounds nice but.....

How many of those latest starts ? Two, Three or more ?
When you average, you get average results. The idea is to be better than average.

Dozens of what factors ? Besides the usual few Bris ain't saying.

As Albert Einstein said " Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted."

[acorn54]

i've said it before, parimutuel wagering is an efficient market as is the stock market. information for PUBLIC consumption is built into the value of the stock/horse at the end of the wagering. ONLY people with information not available to the general public have the ability to beat the game over the LONG RUN.

[Robert Goren]

When one reads the Bris info sheet mentioned in the other post, one sentence stands out.

" Prime Power measures the quality of each horse's latest starts by combining dozens of handicapping factors into one-easy-to use rating. "

Sounds nice but.....

How many of those latest starts ? Two, Three or more ?
When you average, you get average results. The idea is to be better than average.

Dozens of what factors ? Besides the usual few Bris ain't saying.

As Albert Einstein said " Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted."I am pretty sure that they took a bunch of races and ran a multiple regression on them with about everything in the their PPs. They kept anything that had any predict value and used it in their formula for the ratings. I also suspect they are using of their bias factors for the track, but I am not sure of that. I do not believe they look at such things as too many "E" in the race or the lone "E" in the race. I have seen a horse scratch out and entered the next day and the prime power number is very close or the same in both races. The question I have is, Do they ever update their formula?

[deathandgravity]

I always take a look @ the Prime Power figure, but in my db of over 5400+ races.

Only one with a positive ROI on Best Prime number is:

Surface: Turf
Class: Claiming
Distance: Route
Hit: 31.90% (395)
ROI: +2.68%