fractions

[BIG HIT]

Hi guys and happy new year.How do you compare fractions at different distances as to weather the horse is holding his speed or is declineing.I always start with his best race of the last five if he won on a 46.1/5 half five race back.Then if his last two race he was beat at 46.4/5 and last race beat in 47.I fig him to be on the decline.But when they switch distance weather it be shorter or longer i get confuse to say the least.Any suggestion would be thankful.Agian happy new year all

[thoroughbred]

Unless you take the track variant into account, and, in some cases, the par value of the track, the calculations you make can be inaccurate.

I'm assuming you adjust for track variant. Right?

[superfecta]

Originally posted by BIG HIT
Hi guys and happy new year.How do you compare fractions at different distances as to weather the horse is holding his speed or is declineing.I always start with his best race of the last five if he won on a 46.1/5 half five race back.Then if his last two race he was beat at 46.4/5 and last race beat in 47.I fig him to be on the decline.But when they switch distance weather it be shorter or longer i get confuse to say the least.Any suggestion would be thankful.Agian happy new year all

I don't usually do this,I prefer to use the last race or comparable distance(in a sprint today,use last sprint race line,same for a route race)but sometimes I do pace figs on the last three races and see if the horse runs a consistent pattern.
That means if he usually runs near the front,or sets the pace,and on the last race he ran towards the back end,I look to see if he ran a bad race,or maybe he was in a faster race than he was accustomed to.
Early pace # was 80,late pace # was 70,to me means he goes as fast as he can as long as he can.
Early pace # was 70,late pace# was 80 means he is a closer or can rate a little.
Now if he runs a race three races back with numbers like 80-70,then runs a race two back with pace numbers like 82-65,then the last paceline is something like 80-62,I get the feeling he may be going off form.But it may also mean he ran at different tracks or surfaces(wet,sloppy,etc.)
Alot of ways you can look at it.I think sometimes I can get a feel how the horse will run because I have done thousands of pacelines and I can see patterns develope.Course it doesn't always work,but thats handicapping.....

[Tuffmug]

You also have to consider jockey style. Jockeys tend towards E,EP,S or P type running styles just like horses. For example, Gary Stevens a close up EP type Jockey. Sure he can change style to suit the horse but he tends to run close up as do most California Jocks. His close up style in the Kentucky Derby wound up costing Point Given ( a P type horse) the Triple crown.

Might want to study final 1/4 times and recovery time between races as a better method of determining form cycles.

[BIG HIT]

Hi guys thanks for your replys thier certanly is a lot of ways to look at it.When i used the daily racing fourm i would take the fastes front runner last race.And only consider the horse that had run a good race on that half.Surprizeingly that was always pretty close or exactly what the half of the race would be run.Ben using tsn pp now they time and fig for the half etc.So kinda got a way from that The premise was nobody in the race runs faster then the fastest front runner.Has anybody else tried that.?

[superfecta]

Originally posted by BIG HIT
Hi guys thanks for your replys thier certanly is a lot of ways to look at it.When i used the daily racing fourm i would take the fastes front runner last race.And only consider the horse that had run a good race on that half.Surprizeingly that was always pretty close or exactly what the half of the race would be run.Ben using tsn pp now they time and fig for the half etc.So kinda got a way from that The premise was nobody in the race runs faster then the fastest front runner.Has anybody else tried that.?
I usually look for a horse that won't try to get the lead,just stay close to the lead.Not fond of closers or cheap speed.I will take a front runner if he figures to get an easy lead and won't get pressed hard.But since I play exotics,I try to find horses that run well late to complete the tri or super.Hopefully,they will also bring a price.