Belmont - 6/12 Race 4 Maiden Special Weight $75K

[Robert Fischer]

https://timeformus.com/default.aspx (free race of day)

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=BEL&race=4&param1=828&param2=1656&param3=531696


Good handicapping race here.
You have several well-meant classic distance Turf horses in here. There is a nice purse of $75,000, and an interesting weight stipulation: 3yo 117lbs., Older 124lbs.

Will the 7lbs make any difference at 10 furlongs?
The main 4yo 124lb factor looks to be :10: Boss Man(English Channel), who is rounding into form for Bill Mott.

Weight is just one of many interesting considerations here. Lots of angles.


Any opinions?

[sammy the sage]

provide the course is firm.... #3 Hines J. Velazquez ....should roll pretty easy here...won't be 7 wide THIS time and w/the Blinks on...much better early shape...

instead of 4/1....probably be 5/2...so no bet for me...still...that's my call...

[Ocala Mike]

Didn't look at or handicap the race. Old rule of thumb was to favor the older horses at least for the first half of the year on the theory that the scale of weights favors them (in other words, 3-yo's should be given even more weight off, especially at the longer distances). Not sure if this still applies.

[Robert Fischer]

One of the first questions has to be what to make of the ML Favorite :4: Wing Foot.

[Redboard]

#8 Knight of Valor looks like a bargain at 10-1. Top turf pedigree and turf trainer. Nice race.

[Robert Fischer]

Didn't look at or handicap the race. Old rule of thumb was to favor the older horses at least for the first half of the year on the theory that the scale of weights favors them (in other words, 3-yo's should be given even more weight off, especially at the longer distances). Not sure if this still applies.


I don't know.

They had a key race last time with the ( :10: 4yo) :3: :6:.
10 Bossman gave up 8lbs and ran credibly.


I'll go :10: - :3: - :6: - :8: here.

I'm not overconfident.

I don't know the 4 at all and i'm tossing him. He'll beat me if there is something I can't see (Other than the obvious trouble in debut).

10 is as game as they come

3 is definitely live and gets a better trip as Sammy said.

6 is running in top form with Alvarado late.

8 is a guess add from Clement who could improve on the stretch out.

[RXB]

I bet Wing Foot in his Kee debut and he seemed to be going well along the rail until Leparoux took him right out of the race. The horse has a classy pedigree on both sides and is bred for the 10f, and the rest of the field isn't much at all. But the question is: what odds will you take?

Heyraat is another nicely bred animal whose dam was a classy grass runner herself and like Wing Foot is in the hands of a high-% trainer.

Those are the only two horses that I would consider betting to win. The others are win-by-default-only types. Knight Of Valor might get some play as another nicely bred horse in a strong barn (Clement) but Candy Ride to an Apalachee mare, not my thing at 10f.

[Tom]

One of the first questions has to be what to make of the ML Favorite :4: Wing Foot.

The stats say he has a good shot for an exacta finish, Javier confirms that.
Hard to go past this guy.

:8: or :12: would be no surprise, :9: fringe contender.

[Robert Fischer]

Pretty good race.

:6: Sheldon fired a good race. Give some credit to Junior Alvarado. Well placed, big run.

:3: was taken off the pace and ended up making headway throughout most of the race. Never got to settle, but ran pretty well.

:10: was hard used on the pace and buffeted 3 wide into the 1st turn. Ran OK.

:5: got the inside on the pace, but was a little bit of a surprise. I think Maggie mentioned a little bit of hives? All in all it was a better than expected effort.

[RXB]

:5: Heyaarat ran well to be third under the circumstances but he'll have to learn to rate better or else regularly face a similar fate.

Wing Foot is unsound. Knight Of Valor, not surprisingly didn't want the added ground.

[Ocala Mike]

Didn't watch the race; just checked the results, and saw that the :4: finished dead last. Very unusual for these connections, who usually send out nothing but live runners. Comments on his race?

[Robert Fischer]

Didn't watch the race; just checked the results, and saw that the :4: finished dead last. Very unusual for these connections, who usually send out nothing but live runners. Comments on his race?

Well placed in the 2 path, came under urging after 5.5 furlongs, retreated.

Hopefully he's not seriously hurt. I don't know any news.

[Ocala Mike]

Yes, I see that he was officially "eased" according to the chart. Well, there are plenty more in the pipeline for Strawbridge (Augustin) trained either by Motion or Sheppard. I watch this outfit very closely.

[Robert Fischer]

:3: was taken off the pace and ended up making headway throughout most of the race. Never got to settle, but ran pretty well.



hines is back now at Bel in 3 minutes.

He is up vs. allowance, but should win here if he can get a decent early position.

[Robert Fischer]

starts dead last.

[Robert Fischer]

the 4 is supposed to make a premature run and open up the race





EDIT - No, longshot Horvat Clan sneaked out with a good trip. The 4 was unable to collapse the pace, and the maiden hines was relegated to a closing 3rd.