Tonalist drops 2 clicks after gate springs

[wiffleball whizz]

Didn't realize this as I should have but a great photo from a great poster reveals a late punch of epic proportions.....

11/1 AFTER gate strings to 9/1....and almost the lowest 9/1 payoff

[wiffleball whizz]

How much of a hit did this horse take into a 4/5 that was going for the TC?!?

[KingChas]

Wizz, maybe it was TVG's bet $25 against Chrome and get money back scheme.......... :lol:

[jk3521]

I confess , it was me. :D

[olddaddy]

In a giant pool like that it had to be big bucks to drop those 2 clicks. Not like at the mountain.

[wiffleball whizz]

I confess , it was me. :D

Nice hit :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Hard to believe you can take a hit like that....and if course it's right

[TheEdge07]

Nice hit :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Hard to believe you can take a hit like that....and if course it's right

"They"

[FantasticDan]

If 28/1 Commissioner had managed to hang on in those final strides over Tonalist, how much bigger would the EXA and TRI payouts have been? Would it have been enuff to turn the $6800 TRI into $10K? Or bigger?

[wiffleball whizz]

"They"

HAHAHAHAHA "they" hit him late

[jk3521]

Wish I had that much confidence that my horse would win by a head!
Musta had this... :lol:
http://rpmhandicappinggiant.com/future-pic
http://www.hulu.com/watch/440788

[Stillriledup]

I saw this and was going to make a thread on it :D but i wanted to see if anyone would notice.

Good catch Whizz, there's proof someone bet after the start. Pretty damning evidence. ;)

[Saratoga_Mike]

What happened to CC's odds - cant see in photo?

[thaskalos]

What happened to CC's odds - cant see in photo?
It's unlikely that the odds on an odds-on horse would be affected in a case such as this.

[Saratoga_Mike]

It's unlikely that the odds on an odds-on horse would be affected in a case such as this.

Was wondering if he drifted up and all the others down - I was too lazy to compare final odds on others!

[ronsmac]

Another reason looking for value the old fashioned way is going the way of the dinosaur. The big rebate guys continually short circuit the board on the final flash.

[Stillriledup]

Was wondering if he drifted up and all the others down - I was too lazy to compare final odds on others!

I went over all the odds, it seemed like a few longshots went up a click or two, but nobody else really came down, i think CC was 4-5 the entire way, never moved.

[Wiley]

If 28/1 Commissioner had managed to hang on in those final strides over Tonalist, how much bigger would the EXA and TRI payouts have been? Would it have been enuff to turn the $6800 TRI into $10K? Or bigger?
I noticed late that the exacta on a $1 bet was around 240-1 with Commish on top and paid what about 175-1 with Tonalist because I really wanted it the other way. If the tri was proportionally similar, I guess between $9 and $10K on a $2 bet.

[cj]

There is a lot of conditional wagering going on these days, so when an obvious underlay like California Chrome is in a race, some of the more obvious contenders are going to get bet at the last second.

[JustRalph]

I saw this and was going to make a thread on it :D but i wanted to see if anyone would notice.

Good catch Whizz, there's proof someone bet after the start. Pretty damning evidence. ;)


Nope. It's proof that the tote system is slow as hell and misleading. I don't think it's "proof" anybody bet after the bell.

[PaceAdvantage]

Good catch Whizz, there's proof someone bet after the start. Pretty damning evidence. ;)How so? If that picture was taken right after the start, and knowing what we know about the technology involved, any betting after the start wouldn't have shown up on the tote until AT LEAST the backstretch...you know this...so not sure why you wrote what you did...

[OTM Al]

How so? If that picture was taken right after the start, and knowing what we know about the technology involved, any betting after the start wouldn't have shown up on the tote until AT LEAST the backstretch...you know this...so not sure why you wrote what you did...

Should I sue for my picture being used without my permission?

[OTM Al]

Seriously though, how many robot bettors do you think hit this at the last instant? Wasn't he pretty much considered the 3rd favorite by many after Chrome and Wicked Strong? 9-1 is a hell of a price on a 3rd favorite let alone 11-1. If I was paying attention I would have been all over that too. It likely was not one big hit, but a lot of hits from the robots.

[wiffleball whizz]

Should I sue for my picture being used without my permission?

100000 percent copyright infringement!!!!!!

What a great photo!!!!!

[FantasticDan]

I noticed late that the exacta on a $1 bet was around 240-1 with Commish on top and paid what about 175-1 with Tonalist because I really wanted it the other way. If the tri was proportionally similar, I guess between $9 and $10K on a $2 bet.Interesting, thanks! :ThmbUp:

[Stillriledup]

How so? If that picture was taken right after the start, and knowing what we know about the technology involved, any betting after the start wouldn't have shown up on the tote until AT LEAST the backstretch...you know this...so not sure why you wrote what you did...

I didnt want to get too technical, just saw Als picture and to me, looks like the race started and the board says 11-1.

But, what do i know. :D

[wiffleball whizz]

I didnt want to get too technical, just saw Als picture and to me, looks like the race started and the board says 11-1.

But, what do i know. :D

HAHAHAHAHA the race looks like it's off to me too.....and he's 11/1...

Really no excuse for this....looks horrible

Man is that a late and heavy hit

[Stillriledup]

HAHAHAHAHA the race looks like it's off to me too.....and he's 11/1...

Really no excuse for this....looks horrible

Man is that a late and heavy hit

Thank you whizz for starting this thread and bring some shenanigans to light. Unfortunately, nobody will "investigate" its don't ask don't tell.

They thought we were idiots and wouldn't notice.

[TheEdge07]

Thank you whizz for starting this thread and bring some shenanigans to light. Unfortunately, nobody will "investigate" its don't ask don't tell.

They thought we were idiots and wouldn't notice.

Great absolute classic..

[Stillriledup]

Great absolute classic..

Thank you, hopefully post of the Year material. :ThmbUp:

[Exotic1]

Thank you whizz for starting this thread and bring some shenanigans to light. Unfortunately, nobody will "investigate" its don't ask don't tell.

They thought we were idiots and wouldn't notice.

On the replays which shows the names and odds of the top 4 positions, Tonalist is 11-1 for a brief moment after they leave the gate and before they go into the clubhouse turn. The next time Tonalist is shown on the backstretch he is 9-1.

But other than someone or maybe a confluence of entities batch betting, what does it all mean? His morning line was 8-1,it's not like someone was waiting for Tonalist to go 3-4 wide into the turn, for someone to decide hey, that's the trip I was hoping for, I'm going to bet Putin's take on the Olympics and place it on Tonalist. Just to make things easy, let's say Tonalist's price went down 10% between flashes, that's a huge punch into the win pool. Are you saying, someone wanted to see how CC left the gate?

This is not criticism at all. I won't criticize anyone who says that the betting of a particular race looks fishy. I was completely wrong on the guy that was intentionally cancelling bets; just trying to figure out the "score" potential here with someone betting Tonalist who projected to be 3-4 wide the entire trip after seeing his position going into the first turn.

[Exotic1]

Thank you, hopefully post of the Year material. :ThmbUp:

Seriously, there should be an award based on the voting from the Academy.

[Stillriledup]

On the replays which shows the names and odds of the top 4 positions, Tonalist is 11-1 for a brief moment after they leave the gate and before they go into the clubhouse turn. The next time Tonalist is shown on the backstretch he is 9-1.

But other than someone or maybe a confluence of entities batch betting, what does it all mean? His morning line was 8-1,it's not like someone was waiting for Tonalist to go 3-4 wide into the turn, for someone to decide hey, that's the trip I was hoping for, I'm going to bet Putin's take on the Olympics and place it on Tonalist. Just to make things easy, let's say Tonalist's price went down 10% between flashes, that's a huge punch into the win pool. Are you saying, someone wanted to see how CC left the gate?

This is not criticism at all. I won't criticize anyone who says that the betting of a particular race looks fishy. I was completely wrong on the guy that was intentionally cancelling bets; just trying to figure out the "score" potential here with someone betting Tonalist who projected to be 3-4 wide the entire trip after seeing his position going into the first turn.

Good post E1.

The thing that bugs me is that if someone ever brings up a late flash of money, someone else will say "pool size". so in this case, that seems to not matter, how its possible to knock an 11-1 down to 9-1 in a 20 million dollar win pool would take a massive bet.

I just thing that a person waiting until the very last second to punch hundreds of thousands to win on that horse makes me wonder what's going on and what did that person know.

Tonalist didnt' get away so great, its not like the gate opened and he had 3 on the field, i just like to get under the skin of the nyra apologists here :D , but if the odds went down into the first turn, the bet was made before the race started.

It looks bad for people who don't know the game all that well, they think they're getting 24 bucks and get 20, that's a HUGE drop into such a massive pool....in other words, why him? Why Tonalist? Wasn't CC an "overlay" at 4-5 and someone could have thought that 3-5 was the "right price" and made him 3-5 with a 500k last flash win bet?

It would be interesting to know where that bet came from and when it was placed....hopefully someone will look into this and make the info public.

[Exotic1]

Good post E1.

The thing that bugs me is that if someone ever brings up a late flash of money, someone else will say "pool size". so in this case, that seems to not matter, how its possible to knock an 11-1 down to 9-1 in a 20 million dollar win pool would take a massive bet.

I just thing that a person waiting until the very last second to punch hundreds of thousands to win on that horse makes me wonder what's going on and what did that person know.

Tonalist didnt' get away so great, its not like the gate opened and he had 3 on the field, i just like to get under the skin of the nyra apologists here, but if the odds went down into the first turn, the bet was made before the race started.

It looks bad for people who don't know the game all that well, they think they're getting 24 bucks and get 20, that's a HUGE drop into such a massive pool....in other words, why him? Why Tonalist? Wasn't CC an "overlay" at 4-5 and someone could have thought that 3-5 was the "right price" and made him 3-5 with a 500k last flash win bet?

It would be interesting to know where that bet came from and when it was placed....hopefully someone will look into this and make the info public.

Ok, I got it. Good points.

I said 10% not knowing if the 9-1 of Tonalist was really 9.80. I looked it up after my post and the price was 9.20 so it was more like 18-20%, huge drop.

[Stillriledup]

Ok, I got it. Good points.

I said 10% not knowing if the 9-1 of Tonalist was really 9.80. I looked it up after my post and the price was 9.20 so it was more like 18-20%, huge drop.

Its probably all on the up and up, but a massive drop like that should be at least looked into. Someone who bet 200k to win walked away with 2 million, the big late punch may have even been bigger than 200k, but someone who's done the math might have a better idea of what kind of bet came in at the bell.

[JustRalph]

This is what happens when I post my picks..........

[PhantomOnTour]

What if the bet was made a few moments before the gate opened?
That shot is about a moment or two after the gate opened.

You think that bet will register on the tote in that short of a time span?
Consider the massive amount of bets that were flowing in from hubs all over North America (and off shore etc etc)...you expect all that to be reflected on the tote in a matter of moments?

[Longshot6977]

I blew up the photo and it looks like :11: has $1,494,488 on him in the win pool. Place looks to be $438,888 and show appears to be $383,163. I checked the final pool on my homemade tote sniffer and he ended up with $1,843,207. That's a difference of $348,719. So that answers post#2.

His final place pool was $568,091, minus the $438,888 is $129,203.
His final show pool was $445,554, minus the $383,163 is $62,391.

Looks like some healthy last minute bets, but no way to prove otherwise. :)

[Stillriledup]

Thanks for the Math LS, now we just need to find out if it was one HUGE bet of 200k or more, of just a bunch of 10 dollar bettors all getting the same idea at the same time.

[senortout]

Guys and dolls.....what you are seeing on the infield tote is what has gone thru the windows and trackside SAMs and its at least 30 seconds behind what is really there already, so that is one thing. By far the bigger hurdle though, is the fact you are not seeing ADW money yet(at all????). I have questioned that ???? Perhaps it comes in with the same delay as track betting.......why don't the
Adws eliminate conditional wagering? I don't make conditional wagers because I'd have to set my cancel odds much much higher to actually have a chance to get the odds that I am REALLY willing to accept. The conditional acceptable odds are nearly always met before the late money ruins your requested odds, but of course, not before your wager is accepted. How DIFFERERENT IT WOULD BE IF YOUR MONEY COULD GO INTO THE POOL (SINCE YOU ODDS WERE MET), NOW SUDDENLY WITH YOUR MONEY ON THE HORSE AND THOUSANDS OF OTHER TOTE-WATCHERS SUCH AS YOU (also betting late) Are effectively ruining the concept of conditional wagering. The only way the conditional wager could be effective would be if the tote actually refunded your wager...(whoa now stop right there of course you wouldn't want the refund if your horse won now, would you? So that's a no go)....the final tote odds were far below your conditional limit......the only answer is.......outlaw, stop the conditional wager! I am quite aware this post does not read right in its entirety, do you nevertheless understand a bit better? I mean, the system as it is now breeds distrust as is quite evident on reading this thread. How better to restore an element of faith in our systems than to rid it of things that make no sense? Someone on here should start a poll to see how many use conditional wagering it might be informative.

[Mr_Ed]

Didn't Candy Boy get a $1,300,000 final flash in the Derby this year?

[PhantomOnTour]

Thanks for the Math LS, now we just need to find out if it was one HUGE bet of 200k or more, of just a bunch of 10 dollar bettors all getting the same idea at the same time.
No we don't

[senortout]

I am waiting with my Skype account online, right now,,,,open your Skype account and follow the directions below!

Tom

[Some_One]

Looking at the replay, the final odds change happened 12 seconds after the gate opens, you'll see Comissioner go from 27 to 28, Samraat 20 to 19

[ultracapper]

$200,000 conditional on 10-1 makes all the sense in the world. If I were a betting man (which I'm not), I'd say there is the action right there.

[Stillriledup]

No we don't

Sure we do. We need to make sure its legit. There aren't too many watchdogs in this game, we can never have enough.

[wiffleball whizz]

Conditional wagering should be banned...

It holds people hostage till after horses hit the wire.....

But of course being this happens at a nyra run facility it just gets brushed off...

2nd biggest win pool of year and odds almost drop 3 ticks into a board that never moved from 30mtp......joke

[wiffleball whizz]

Can somebody explain how a horse can go from possibly paying $25.90 to $20.40 after the race starts...?

So no wrong money went in on the white hot wicked strong, or the much hyped commanding curve, ride on curlin, and oh yeah almost forgot a horse going for the triple crown at a actual acceptable price at 4/5.....

I think we should be informed where this money came in from...

[Stillriledup]

Can somebody explain how a horse can go from possibly paying $25.90 to $20.40 after the race starts...?

So no wrong money went in on the white hot wicked strong, or the much hyped commanding curve, ride on curlin, and oh yeah almost forgot a horse going for the triple crown at a actual acceptable price at 4/5.....

I think we should be informed where this money came in from...

I didnt read anywhere that anyone thought or said that CC would be anything more than 3-5. So, at 4-5, why not bet the 500k on HIM?

One part of the investigation is whether or not the bet actually came in before the race started.

The other part is why was such a massive bet made on this horse and nobody else? Someone just scooped 2 million out of the win pool and nobody seems to care where this money went...well, of course, except you and me.

[cj]

I didnt read anywhere that anyone thought or said that CC would be anything more than 3-5. So, at 4-5, why not bet the 500k on HIM?

One part of the investigation is whether or not the bet actually came in before the race started.

The other part is why was such a massive bet made on this horse and nobody else? Someone just scooped 2 million out of the win pool and nobody seems to care where this money went...well, of course, except you and me.

Because at 4-5 he was still an underlay. He was always going to be way overbet.

[Stillriledup]

Because at 4-5 he was still an underlay. He was always going to be way overbet.

Well, retrospectively, yeah, its a bad price. My point was that i hadn't heard anyone say or read anywhere that people thought he was going to be 4-5, all i heard was 3-5 or 1-2 which means there could have been some bettor who thought 3-5 was the price he was going to be and thus, saw 4-5 as an overlay.

Not everyone thought 4-5 was an underlay.

[Robert Goren]

How much money had to come in to drop him 2 ticks from 11/1 to 9/1 when the pool was already huge at post time. We are not talking a Wednesday afternoon card here. Whether CC was at 4/5 an overlay or not is not what is being asked. for the record it is usually the 4/5 shot that drops not the 11/1 shot.

[ronsmac]

This is similar to the big money that came in on candy boy in the Derby. I believe it was around 1 mil or so in the last flash or two.

[Stillriledup]

How much money had to come in to drop him 2 ticks from 11/1 to 9/1 when the pool was already huge at post time. We are not talking a Wednesday afternoon card here. Whether CC was at 4/5 an overlay or not is not what is being asked. for the record it is usually the 4/5 shot that drops not the 11/1 shot.

Yes, but the 4-5 shot only seems to drop when they win.

[wiffleball whizz]

How much money had to come in to drop him 2 ticks from 11/1 to 9/1 when the pool was already huge at post time. We are not talking a Wednesday afternoon card here. Whether CC was at 4/5 an overlay or not is not what is being asked. for the record it is usually the 4/5 shot that drops not the 11/1 shot.

That will be the 2nd biggest win pool of the year besides the derby and horse drops 2 ticks and change.....not cool...

If your gonna drop from 11/1 to 9/1 at least pay 21.90!!!

Situation stinks from a gambling point of view

[Robert Goren]

That will be the 2nd biggest win pool of the year besides the derby and horse drops 2 ticks and change.....not cool...

If your gonna drop from 11/1 to 9/1 at least pay 21.90!!!

Situation stinks from a gambling point of viewThere should be answers coming from NYRA if they cared about their bettors, but I doubt if we will get any.

[Stillriledup]

There should be answers coming from NYRA if they cared about their bettors, but I doubt if we will get any.

I don't think we will get any unless someone from the media says they're doing a story on the late money and need some info. They're not going to do anything for a fan, if you contact them as just a random fan, i can't imagine anything will get done.

[wiffleball whizz]

There should be answers coming from NYRA if they cared about their bettors, but I doubt if we will get any.

If I was in the nyra mutual department I sure would make a statement as to where it came from if it was legit....

This situation needs to be addressed ASAP....and to be honest if not for great camera work from OTM AL this getting hidden and not even brought up

[Stillriledup]

If I was in the nyra mutual department I sure would make a statement as to where it came from if it was legit....

This situation needs to be addressed ASAP....and to be honest if not for great camera work from OTM AL this getting hidden and not even brought up

Maybe Ray Paulick can look into this, he reads these boards on occasion, or maybe Jeff or Dean can make a call on behalf of horseplayers assn.

[cj]

Well, retrospectively, yeah, its a bad price.
...
Not everyone thought 4-5 was an underlay.

I can't imagine any serious handicapper that thought California Chrome was 55% or more to win the race. He was always going to be an underlay in the race.

[BettinBilly]

I can't imagine any serious handicapper that thought California Chrome was 55% or more to win the race. He was always going to be an underlay in the race.

Agreed. I did, however, think he'd be somewhere in the money. Place was a remote possibility and Show seemed very realistic to my capping. Didn't expect him nor Wicked to be off the board.

[OTM Al]

And I thought my picture of Cuomo was the bigfoot picture for the day...I have no idea why people would bet anymore if what is being implied in this thread is true.

[wiffleball whizz]

And I thought my picture of Cuomo was the bigfoot picture for the day...I have no idea why people would bet anymore if what is being implied in this thread is true.

I think it's just the conditional wagering...which is wrong in it's own respect..

[jk3521]

Dead silence on this subject from Paulick and other investigative reporters....Case closed ! :D

[PaceAdvantage]

Are some of you actually serious with this stuff?

And just in case you are...then get off your lazy asses and MAKE SOME CALLS or WRITE AN EMAIL. All the people who have the answers you seek are readily available...they aren't hidden away in ivory towers.