Beyer agrees with Moss bad ride.

[TheEdge07]

Beyer: Espinoza's ride could have cost California Chrome the Triple Crown (http://www.drf.com/news/beyer-espinozas-ride-could-have-cost-california-chrome-triple-crown)

I believe that Espinoza was guilty of a gross tactical error Saturday.....

[thaskalos]

Beyer: Espinoza's ride could have cost California Chrome the Triple Crown (http://www.drf.com/news/beyer-espinozas-ride-could-have-cost-california-chrome-triple-crown)

I believe that Espinoza was guilty of a gross tactical error Saturday.....

Beyer would never accept a handicapping tip from Espinoza...but he would readily offer him horse-riding tips. :)

[horses4courses]

Both Beyer and Moss are wrong about this.

[DJofSD]

Beyer: Espinoza's ride could have cost California Chrome the Triple Crown (http://www.drf.com/news/beyer-espinozas-ride-could-have-cost-california-chrome-triple-crown)

I believe that Espinoza was guilty of a gross tactical error Saturday.....
Did I miss it? Not once was a grabbed quarter even mentioned.

[magwell]

Beyer showed balls by saying CC would be off the board but showed his ass by knocking the jock, what beat this horse was the distance, winning the derby was beyond his breeding as it was . Beyer should stick to picking horses not giving redboard advise to jocks, if he sent CC to the lead and got beat, Beyer would say he should have rode him like he did in the Derby.

[LottaKash]

I am not sure what to think about Beyer's comments about CC...

First he lists (in a previous blog) all the reason why Cc would not win the Belmont, and then tells us how this was a bad ride....

If the horse wasn't capable of winning, according to Beyer, then how can a losing trip be considered a bad ride, when he couldn't or wasn't supposed to win it, to begin with...:confused:

All I saw was a horse who couldn't get the distance at that rate, on that day...

[DJofSD]

Beyer showed balls by saying CC would be off the board but showed his ass by knocking the jock, what beat this horse was the distance, winning the derby was beyond his breeding as it was . Beyer should stick to picking horses not giving redboard advise to jocks, if he sent CC to the lead and got beat, Beyer would say he should have rode him like he did in the Derby.
Yep, a classic damned if you, damned if you don't.

If this was football, it'd be Monday morning quarterbacking. What do you call it when it is a horse race? Monday morning paddock instructions?

[chadk66]

Beyer showed balls by saying CC would be off the board but showed his ass by knocking the jock, what beat this horse was the distance, winning the derby was beyond his breeding as it was . Beyer should stick to picking horses not giving redboard advise to jocks, if he sent CC to the lead and got beat, Beyer would say he should have rode him like he did in the Derby.exactly:ThmbUp:

[chadk66]

let's see. your on the even money favorite to win the triple crown. your on the rail nearing the final turn and your following a horse nobody believes has a shot to win. horses are starting to move from behind on your outside. do you:
A-stay behind a horse that has very high odds to stop dead in his tracks at the quarter pole and look like a total jackass while riding a horse that could win the triple crown
B-do you inch out and put the horse in the clear so he has at least a shot

I think he made the right call.

[Clocker]

Beyer should stick to picking horses not giving redboard advise to jocks

Beyer wasn't on the horse and doesn't know what Espinoza experienced or why he did what he did. The horse may or may not have been affected by the injury, but he was slowed a step or two at the break because of the incident. Beyer ignores this, and its possible impact on the ride.

[DJofSD]

Ya, drop a hammer on one of Bolt's toes then see how well he runs.

[Robert Fischer]

here was my pre-race writeup:


"A closer look at the Belmont Stakes - Today 6:45pm eastern on NBC, California Chrome attempts to be the 1st Triple Crown winner in 36 years, and could give the struggling sport much needed corporate, and media attention.
However in the cold reality of horse race betting, California Chrome is an underlay. He will be heavily bet as if he were a sure thing, behind his dominant Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes victories. For a horse that wins races with superior tactical speed, agility, and a sudden burst of speed, - California Chrome is vulnerable in this 1.5 Mile marathon.
Not only will the distance be a quarter mile farther than he will ever run again, the magnitude of the race is such that that Chrome's jockey will likely be forced into conservative tactics. If he had nothing to lose, Chrome would be put on the lead here in this seemingly pace-less race. With the Triple Crown and big breeding money all riding on this race, jockey Victor Espinoza will be forced into conservative "near-the-pace" tactics early. In the middle part of the race he will need to run for 30 seconds longer than usual before being asked for his separating burst for home. And then he'll need to hold off faster finishers for the length of the stretch.
11-Tonalist, 4-Commanding Curve, 9-Wicked Strong offer the best value in win and multi-race spots.
Tonalist is my top selection. Earlier this year in Florida, Tonalist showed graded stakes ability defeating Global Strike, and later losing to a the highly regarded Constitution. Both of those rivals received perfect trips and had huge tactical edges. In the Peter Pan Stakes run in New York at Belmont Park, Tonalist got a good trip of his own, and dusted foes while going 1&1/8 Miles. The regally bred Tonalist is a surprisingly tactical horse for being a classic-distance grinder. When he changes leads into the stretch he does so with authority, striding out and appearing to glide downhill.
With history and big money on the line, this should be a great race."




-----------------
Now that we've seen the race itself =The answer depends on how much the gate incident actually hindered him, whether or not Espinoza actually tried to get to the lead, and whether or not Sherman and the connections were content with a conservative "near-the-lead" strategy.

[dilanesp]

If Espinoza had went to the lead and the horse tired, people would have said "you shouldn't have gone to the lead, what are you doing wearing out your horse dueling with longshot Commissioner?".

It isn't a "bad ride" unless (1) the horse was going to win otherwise, and (2) the mistake was egregious and unarguable.

[Rex Phinney]

The ride IMO was not good. looking a the other races:

Bayern runs an eyepopping time and turns back Social Inclusion running from the #1 post and never giving up the inside. Leading turning for home

Close Hatches beats Princess of Sylmar and Beholder, coming off the rail only once to pass the pace setter. Post #1 finishing on the inside. Leading turning for home.

Palice Malice wins the from the #1 hole finishing inside of Goldencents,

Norumbega wins entering the far turn 4 wide but cutting in to win on the inside of Micromanage, needing every stride to beat Micromanage who led at the 1/4 pole and Cat Burglar who was on the pace the whole way going 12f.

Kid Cruz did win closing and going wide but he ran into a 45.60 half mile, and the pacesetter in the race Life in Shambles still holds on for 3rd.

Was none of this on Espinoza's mind? He had the inside position and every chance to keep Commissioner on his outside going into the first turn. He pulls the horse back, allows General A Rod to get in front of him, he proceeds to let Tonalist by and then gives up any chance of taking the rail should it open in front of him by letting Medal Count in there.

Espinoza comes into the stretch with a left handed whip? Tonalist clearly a player at this point and Espinoza is using a left handed whip?

Not sure if it was on purpose or not but Rosario at the very end veers Tonalist inside to the 2 or 3 path, the same path he used win the Brooklyn a few hours earlier, and it provides the last bit of umph Tonalist needs to get up over Commissioner.

[Stillriledup]

here was my pre-race writeup:


"A closer look at the Belmont Stakes - Today 6:45pm eastern on NBC, California Chrome attempts to be the 1st Triple Crown winner in 36 years, and could give the struggling sport much needed corporate, and media attention.
However in the cold reality of horse race betting, California Chrome is an underlay. He will be heavily bet as if he were a sure thing, behind his dominant Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes victories. For a horse that wins races with superior tactical speed, agility, and a sudden burst of speed, - California Chrome is vulnerable in this 1.5 Mile marathon.
Not only will the distance be a quarter mile farther than he will ever run again, the magnitude of the race is such that that Chrome's jockey will likely be forced into conservative tactics. If he had nothing to lose, Chrome would be put on the lead here in this seemingly pace-less race. With the Triple Crown and big breeding money all riding on this race, jockey Victor Espinoza will be forced into conservative "near-the-pace" tactics early. In the middle part of the race he will need to run for 30 seconds longer than usual before being asked for his separating burst for home. And then he'll need to hold off faster finishers for the length of the stretch.
11-Tonalist, 4-Commanding Curve, 9-Wicked Strong offer the best value in win and multi-race spots.
Tonalist is my top selection. Earlier this year in Florida, Tonalist showed graded stakes ability defeating Global Strike, and later losing to a the highly regarded Constitution. Both of those rivals received perfect trips and had huge tactical edges. In the Peter Pan Stakes run in New York at Belmont Park, Tonalist got a good trip of his own, and dusted foes while going 1&1/8 Miles. The regally bred Tonalist is a surprisingly tactical horse for being a classic-distance grinder. When he changes leads into the stretch he does so with authority, striding out and appearing to glide downhill.
With history and big money on the line, this should be a great race."




-----------------
Now that we've seen the race itself =The answer depends on how much the gate incident actually hindered him, whether or not Espinoza actually tried to get to the lead, and whether or not Sherman and the connections were content with a conservative "near-the-lead" strategy.


This is an amazing call RF, when you are the heavy favorite, the last thing a jock wants is to be blamed for a ride, so they accept the "conservative route" and blame the horse....so, interestingly you hear Victor take none of the blame, the first thing out of his mouth was the "horse was done halfway around". so he's already trying to make sure the world doesn't blame him by planting that seed.

[thaskalos]

If Espinoza had went to the lead and the horse tired, people would have said "you shouldn't have gone to the lead, what are you doing wearing out your horse dueling with longshot Commissioner?".

It isn't a "bad ride" unless (1) the horse was going to win otherwise, and (2) the mistake was egregious and unarguable.

If Espinoza had pushed California Chrome to the lead...then the criticism would be:

"What a pinhead that Espinoza is! Didn't he think that he could overtake Commissioner in the latter parts of the race? What had Commissioner and General a Rod ever done to make him think that they could get away from him in the race?"

Espinoza had every reason to think that he was controlling the race right from where he was...and he rode accordingly. The horse just didn't have it...and that was all.

It's easy to be a critic...

[BettinBilly]

Did I miss it? Not once was a grabbed quarter even mentioned.

My thoughts as well. I'm no expert in this regard, but I can't imagine that a grabbed quarter would not effect most horses. Hard to believe it didn't have some effect on the performance of Chrome in that race. Espinoza saying he noticed a difference in Chrome coming out of the gate? Sounds like an "Ouch" to me from the horse.

Well, as stated above, we're all Monday Morning Jockeying. ;)

[Stillriledup]

The ride IMO was not good. looking a the other races:

Bayern runs an eyepopping time and turns back Social Inclusion running from the #1 post and never giving up the inside. Leading turning for home

Close Hatches beats Princess of Sylmar and Beholder, coming off the rail only once to pass the pace setter. Post #1 finishing on the inside. Leading turning for home.

Palice Malice wins the from the #1 hole finishing inside of Goldencents,

Norumbega wins entering the far turn 4 wide but cutting in to win on the inside of Micromanage, needing every stride to beat Micromanage who led at the 1/4 pole and Cat Burglar who was on the pace the whole way going 12f.

Kid Cruz did win closing and going wide but he ran into a 45.60 half mile, and the pacesetter in the race Life in Shambles still holds on for 3rd.

Was none of this on Espinoza's mind? He had the inside position and every chance to keep Commissioner on his outside going into the first turn. He pulls the horse back, allows General A Rod to get in front of him, he proceeds to let Tonalist by and then gives up any chance of taking the rail should it open in front of him by letting Medal Count in there.

Espinoza comes into the stretch with a left handed whip? Tonalist clearly a player at this point and Espinoza is using a left handed whip?

Not sure if it was on purpose or not but Rosario at the very end veers Tonalist inside to the 2 or 3 path, the same path he used win the Brooklyn a few hours earlier, and it provides the last bit of umph Tonalist needs to get up over Commissioner.

Good writeup.

If you watched VE's rides on CC in the Derby and Preakness carefully, and there is one close up shot of the Derby stretch run (the first time) where you can see Victor being very aggressive to move CC off the inside and get out to stalk in the clear. Same thing happened in Baltimore...so, after watching HOW he rode this horse in previous races, you could have assumed he was not going to be on the front end pinned to the fence battling the entire way around.

IF Victor goes to the lead and gets pressured in a speed duel, he gets blamed just as hard, nobody was going to give him a break unless he got that same exact "Stalking" trip in the 2 path, outside the leaders that he's gotten in the first two Jewels. As soon as he drew post 2 i knew he might be in trouble and was hoping the other jocks wouldn't "let him out" so he could get his preferred trip, which was off the rail, not taking kickback and stalking the leaders with nobody really in front of him.

[aaron]

This is an amazing call RF, when you are the heavy favorite, the last thing a jock wants is to be blamed for a ride, so they accept the "conservative route" and blame the horse....so, interestingly you hear Victor take none of the blame, the first thing out of his mouth was the "horse was done halfway around". so he's already trying to make sure the world doesn't blame him by planting that seed.
I said before the race that if the horse loses it will be blamed on the jockey. I don't think the jockey did anything wrong. If the horse went to the,he likely would have probably been forced into a faster pace and been beaten. It wasn't like the horse was flying at the end and just missed. He was empty.No burst of speed.

[Stillriledup]

I said before the race that if the horse loses it will be blamed on the jockey. I don't think the jockey did anything wrong. If the horse went to the,he likely would have probably been forced into a faster pace and been beaten. It wasn't like the horse was flying at the end and just missed. He was empty.No burst of speed.

I think what people are forgetting, or not considering, is that if Espinoza had sent CC to the front, he would have been changing the way he rode the horse the first two Jewels.....why change it if it isn't broken. Drawing post 2 was a killer for this horse, unless Victor was able to get really lucky and get the exact trip he wanted, he was going to be pinned in and we all saw what happened.

You could say the race was lost at the draw, and you can't really ask Victor to have worked out his same dream scenario, the other jocks weren't going to let him "get out" and get that trip he's been getting. If CC drew the 7 hole, he would have had no problems as he would have been in the clear, off the leaders, not receiving any kickback.

[thaskalos]

What is lost in all of this is that Tonalist won while being the recipient of a worst trip than the one California Chrome got in the race.

I see that Beyer has repeated what Moss said about CC being uncomfortable while "being in a group and getting dirt kicked in his face"...and I wonder: Is the dirt in the horse's face DIFFERENT when he is in a group, than it is when the horse in NOT in a group? I've never heard this excuse when a horse is sitting third on the rail...while dueling leaders are heating up the pace up front. Isn't this stalker getting dirt in the face? Why do we call HIS trip "highly beneficial"?

[Rex Phinney]

I said before the race that if the horse loses it will be blamed on the jockey. I don't think the jockey did anything wrong. If the horse went to the,he likely would have probably been forced into a faster pace and been beaten. It wasn't like the horse was flying at the end and just missed. He was empty.No burst of speed.

They were all empty, look at the final 1/4 time and look at where the pacesetter finished. Randy Moss seemed to know that CC may not want dirt in his face and Espinoza rode him in Kentucky and Pimlico to keep a clear path. All he had todo was keep the horse on a clear path along the inside, Commissioner is not fast enough to push CC, it's not like he was going on with Bodemeister or Shackleford.

[Stillriledup]

What is lost in all of this is that Tonalist won while being the recipient of a worst trip than the one California Chrome got in the race.

I see that Beyer has repeated what Moss said about CC being uncomfortable while "being in a group and getting dirt kicked in his face"...and I wonder: Is the dirt in the horse's face DIFFERENT when he is in a group, than it is when the horse in NOT in a group? I've never heard this excuse when a horse is sitting third on the rail...while dueling leaders are heating up the pace up front. Isn't this stalker getting dirt on the face? Why do we call HIS trip "highly beneficial"?

The "sheets" proponents would say "worse trip" because of the ground loss, but the "kickback" is not factored into numbers, and its a major factor in races.

How much of a factor is up to each individual horseplayer to decide.

[Clocker]

I see that Beyer has repeated what Moss said about CC being uncomfortable while "being in a group and getting dirt kicked in his face"

Their criticism also assumes that it was a big problem, that Espinoza could have done something about it, and that he didn't try. Only he knows the answers.

[The WindfallAngler]

Did I miss it? Not once was a grabbed quarter even mentioned.It wouldn't be that, would it? if Matterhorn, in fact, stepped on California Chrome's heel.

[Exotic1]

This is an amazing call RF, when you are the heavy favorite, the last thing a jock wants is to be blamed for a ride, so they accept the "conservative route" and blame the horse....so, interestingly you hear Victor take none of the blame, the first thing out of his mouth was the "horse was done halfway around". so he's already trying to make sure the world doesn't blame him by planting that seed.

I agree with SRU. Excellent call Mr. RF.

I'm not saying this answers everything since CC was hurt leaving the gate but good call Pre-Race.

[Tom]

I think Andy is wrong about the ride and the figure.
Stuff happens.

He revolutionized the game for the masses.
I think he can wrong once in a while.

If he was NEVER wrong, the Damned DRF would be $25! :D

[Bullet Plane]

To not give the jockey criticism, when he could have got to a clear lead, and wired the field, would be gutless!

They are getting paid for cold hard facts, not Santa Claus Land...

I don't have time for the Jerry Bailey whitewash of what happened...

like in pro football when you get the ex-player in the booth that doesn't want to bash another player. You need some Howard Cosell's to "Tell it like it is!"

Why do I get the feeling, if the jockey in question was not one of the established, top rank jockeys, that Bailey would have ripped him up?

Obviously, the jock screwed up.

However, having said that, if the horse, was a great horse deserving of the triple crown....

giving away 2-4 length by taking the horse around the crowd...

the circuitous route...

would not have made that much difference.

With the perfect trip, I think the horse would have won.

But the great ones win, even without the perfect trip.

[Robert Goren]

The fact remains that in stretch he had no horse left. I don't see how being on the lead that would have changed. When the cream can is empty, it is still empty when you lift over your head and turn it upside down. You had a an over raced mile and quarter horse trying to get a mile and half against good fresh horses. That may have been clear to someone smarter than me before the race, but even I can figure it out after the race.

[DJofSD]

I find it hard to believe CC has never had any dirt in his face. And while some horses don't react well to it most get over it.

[Bullet Plane]

The fact remains that in stretch he had no horse left. I don't see how being on the lead that would have changed. When the cream can is empty, it is still empty when you lift over your head and turn it upside down. You had a an over raced mile and quarter horse trying to get a mile and half against good fresh horses. That may have been clear to someone smarter than me before the race, but even I can figure it out after the race.

No horse left?

He lost by two lengths...

[Sinner369]

If Espinoza had went to the lead and the horse tired, people would have said "you shouldn't have gone to the lead, what are you doing wearing out your horse dueling with longshot Commissioner?".

It isn't a "bad ride" unless (1) the horse was going to win otherwise, and (2) the mistake was egregious and unarguable.


Have to agree..........if the horse would have lost going to the engine than the critics would slam you either way..........why did he goe to the front?

You did not win.............so you are going to be second guess, either way.

[1st time lasix]

Agree with it or not....I like that they have opinions and have expressed them. I also consider Jerry Baily's experienced view. **** I personally feel that if CC either took the lead early ...or at least stayed inside he would have beat the 1-Medal Count-- but I can't be sure he would have beaten the other two. Sheer speculation...without any meaning. I have now concluded that this whole 3 year old group is a mediocre bunch thus far. too bad several that showed promised were hurt. There is potential for several to get better as they mature... but right now I am not impressed.

[Robert Goren]

No horse left?

He lost by two lengths...That what happens to good horses when they run out of steam. Their class keeps them close even if they can't win.

[Izzy2742]

I find it hard to believe CC has never had any dirt in his face. And while some horses don't react well to it most get over it.
He has. His last loss November 1. He was off slow, and made his way up behind the leaders, again with horses on the outside.

He had to make up more ground in that race against a stronger pace, and didn't finish as well as he did on Saturday. He ended up sixth in a mile race.

As others have said, any loss would be subject to second-guessing. Hard to say if any strategy would have been successful.

[ArlJim78]

My biggest gripe with Espinoza is the whole lackadaisical attitude. Smiling, waving to the crowd, blowing kisses, "Do you have a plan?, "no I have no plan". Super.

From looking at his twitter account it looks like he and his posse had a great time in New York, all except for one one tiny detail in the 11th race on Saturday. Hours after the race he's on twitter giving shout out's to his sponsors.
If he'd have taken the lead it might have made a considerable difference in the outcome, but he commented after the race that he felt something wasn't the same right after the start. So maybe he was trying to be conservative with him. who knows. I think his finish position was determined to a greater degree by the gate incident than anything Espinoza did or didn't do in the race.

[AndyC]

What is lost in all of this is that Tonalist won while being the recipient of a worst trip than the one California Chrome got in the race.

I see that Beyer has repeated what Moss said about CC being uncomfortable while "being in a group and getting dirt kicked in his face"...and I wonder: Is the dirt in the horse's face DIFFERENT when he is in a group, than it is when the horse in NOT in a group? I've never heard this excuse when a horse is sitting third on the rail...while dueling leaders are heating up the pace up front. Isn't this stalker getting dirt in the face? Why do we call HIS trip "highly beneficial"?


I don't think any horse likes getting dirt kicked in their face. I think each horse reacts differently. It may have caused CC not to relax and as a result expend more energy than usual early in the race. Being able to relax on the lead is never a bad way to go.

[DJofSD]

My biggest gripe with Espinoza is the whole lackadaisical attitude. Smiling, waving to the crowd, blowing kisses, "Do you have a plan?, "no I have no plan". Super.

From looking at his twitter account it looks like he and his posse had a great time in New York, all except for one one tiny detail in the 11th race on Saturday. Hours after the race he's on twitter giving shout out's to his sponsors.
If he'd have taken the lead it might have made a considerable difference in the outcome, but he commented after the race that he felt something wasn't the same right after the start. So maybe he was trying to be conservative with him. who knows. I think his finish position was determined to a greater degree by the gate incident than anything Espinoza did or didn't do in the race.
Have you ever considered that for VE to get uptight might not have been in his or the horse's best interest?

[Exotic1]

What is lost in all of this is that Tonalist won while being the recipient of a worst trip than the one California Chrome got in the race.

I see that Beyer has repeated what Moss said about CC being uncomfortable while "being in a group and getting dirt kicked in his face"...and I wonder: Is the dirt in the horse's face DIFFERENT when he is in a group, than it is when the horse in NOT in a group? I've never heard this excuse when a horse is sitting third on the rail...while dueling leaders are heating up the pace up front. Isn't this stalker getting dirt in the face? Why do we call HIS trip "highly beneficial"?

I agree with you that Tonalist didn't have the easiest of trips.

Many of the other winners on the card were either ridden along the rail for a significant amount of distance or were forwardly placed in a "comfortable" stalking position. Kid Cruz made it the rail at the 5/8ths -
through the turn (I could be off a bit, I don't have the replay in front of me). Bayern stuck to the rail - man was that guy good. Sweet Reason, stayed on rail and swung out. Tonalist was wide at every point and perhaps even more significant then the ground loss was that he was he was fighting Commissioner the whole race, who was glued to the 1 path. While Rosario sometimes is blamed for going wide and loosing ground (I don't particularity find that to be accurate or even meaningful in many cases) he rode Tonalist as well as anyone could. There wasn't any opportunity to tuck in and he pushed and pushed Tonalist. I thought it was a tremendous ride. I also thought Velasquez rode a very heads up race by getting Commissioner to the rail and to the lead.

[daveyj]

Suppose Steve Cauthen on Affirmed had decided to let Judge Advocate cut in front of him on the first turn so that he can save his energy for the eventual stretch dual vs Alydar. I'm guessing that we would now be looking at a 37 year drought without a Triple Crown winner instead of 36.

[AndyC]

....It's easy to be a critic...


Beyer is not a reporter, he is paid to give his opinion and insight. I don't know if he is right or wrong but it seems that most people want to criticize the fact that he wrote the column as opposed to stating their case as to why Andy might be wrong.

[AndyC]

I find it hard to believe CC has never had any dirt in his face. And while some horses don't react well to it most get over it.

Horses have different dispositions and will react differently to the experience regardless of how many times it happens.

[Exotic1]

I agree with you that Tonalist didn't have the easiest of trips.

I also thought Velasquez rode a very heads up race by getting Commissioner to the rail and to the lead.

Uhm, make that Castellano.

[The WindfallAngler]

having said that, if the horse, was a great horse deserving of the triple crown.... Why then, he would have been besting 4.4 foes, on average--which is all Triple Crown Winners face--and not ten a much tougher task (whose effect was heightened. Since it could, and did, include *fresh horses* among CC's Belmont Stakes field of eleven).

With the perfect trip, I think the horse would have won.

But the great ones win, even without the perfect trip. Well, but by "great ones" we invariably mean Triple Crown winners (don't we?), who -- at the risk of belaboring the point -- are by definition champion runners that nevertheless historically have defeated only 4.4 opponents, on average.

Not ten!

Which is how many California Chrome and other dual-classic winners were asked to beat. Now let us envision a *test* Belmont Stakes, with eleven starters, including REAL CHROME--a mythical dual classic- winner looking to complete his triple crown.

Run it 1,000 times, randomly scratching six horses from each trial. (REAL CHROME stays in, because its his race lose).

Does he?

[Rex Phinney]

My biggest gripe with Espinoza is the whole lackadaisical attitude. Smiling, waving to the crowd, blowing kisses, "Do you have a plan?, "no I have no plan". Super.

Would be great to think he was joking there, but as it is, I don't think he had a plan.

You watch Bayern go 1:20 and change to destroy the field in the Woody Stephens.

The pacesetter, and the the leader at the 1/4 pole finish a close 2nd and 3rd in the other 12F race on the card.

As soon as that spot on the inside opens up with noone but Commissioner waiting he should have been licking his chops. He has to judge the speed well enough to know they aren't going that fast, it's what he is getting paid for.

If the horse gets beat having a clear path trip along the rail going thru a 48 half mile then so be it. He isn't good enough.

[bcgreg]

My biggest gripe with Espinoza is the whole lackadaisical attitude. Smiling, waving to the crowd, blowing kisses, "Do you have a plan?, "no I have no plan". Super.Totally agree with you on this. I told person watching with me that he acted like it was in the bag already...had no game face on at all.

[thaskalos]

Beyer is not a reporter, he is paid to give his opinion and insight. I don't know if he is right or wrong but it seems that most people want to criticize the fact that he wrote the column as opposed to stating their case as to why Andy might be wrong.

I like Beyer...and have said so, many times in the past. I also gave my reasons for why I think his "opinion" is wrong in this case. Beyer never indicated in a prior column that he thought California Chrome needed the lead in order to win the Belmont...nor had he previously mentioned that CC had exhibited a noticeable dislike for having dirt kicked in his face. Beyer also had never previously mentioned that he considered Commissioner to be such a force to be reckoned with on the lead. That's why I called him a "critic", in this case.

Beyer has a right to his opinions...and so do we.

[Rex Phinney]

Uhm, make that Castellano.

Commissioner got a gorgeous ride for sure!

[DJofSD]

CC will repeat what SS did -- maybe even to the point a new jock up.

[thaskalos]

Beyer is not a reporter, he is paid to give his opinion and insight. I don't know if he is right or wrong but it seems that most people want to criticize the fact that he wrote the column as opposed to stating their case as to why Andy might be wrong.
If Beyer had suggested, in a best-selling book, that I might be the country's best handicapper...then I might be a little reluctant to say that he was wrong about anything too*...


*Just kidding Andy... :)

[098poi]

It's tough to second guess a jock after a race is over. Beyer had an opinion but I think he should have left out the last lines,

"Might California Colt have won the Belmont with a ride that better utilized the colt’s superior speed? Maybe."

Might to maybe? I don't know.

[The WindfallAngler]

Suppose Steve Cauthen on Affirmed had decided to let Judge Advocate cut in front of him on the first turn so that he can save his energy for the eventual stretch dual vs Alydar. I'm guessing that we would now be looking at a 37 year drought without a Triple Crown winner instead of 36.Or maybe not. Seeing as California Chrome's bid was complicated by ten others, whereas Affirmed had (count 'em) only four horses, to hold back.

Of course, the test then was qualitative, because Affirmed had Alydar to contend with. (Alydar at age four, post injuries: another matter.)
Alydar's 3-year old quality, outside an Affirmed rivalry context, can be seen here (1978 Whitney: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0zYBc-Z7yo ), crushing older horses--including English champ, J. O. Tobin (who distanced Seattle Slew just the way Angel Cordero, stealing away in Slew's Marlboro, got the better of Steve Cauthen, on Affirmed) and like that.

[dilanesp]

Or maybe not. Seeing as California Chrome's bid was complicated by ten others, whereas Affirmed had (count 'em) only four horses, to hold back.

Of course, the test then was qualitative, because Affirmed had Alydar to contend with. (Alydar at age four, post injuries: another matter.)
Alydar's 3-year old quality, outside an Affirmed rivalry context, can be seen here (1978 Whitney: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0zYBc-Z7yo ), crushing older horses--including English champ, J. O. Tobin (who distanced Seattle Slew just the way Angel Cordero, stealing away in Slew's Marlboro, got the better of Steve Cauthen, on Affirmed) and like that.

I can't say this with absolute certainty, but I think Affirmed would have a great chance to win the Belmont even if he had taken back a bit in that race, because if you look at his race record at 3 and 4, he was an all-time great horse. Not saying there weren't ways to get him beat in the Belmont (see the 1978 Jockey Club Gold Cup for one such scenario), but as a general matter, Affirmed didn't win that race just because of the ride. He won that race because he was Affirmed.

[clocker7]

I thought that the ride was superb. For the first 3/4 he saved ground and had him in perfect position. On the backstretch, he had him slightly off the rail and behind a slight gap between the leaders that minimized kickback (re-watch). During that time I said to myself, he is either conserving him for the proper move, or isn't confident in a horse that might not be himself today.

At the exact proper moment when he could wait no longer, he angled him out and got into a position near the 3/16s where he was one of four horses that were nearly abreast, with a clear shot for home. What, he brought an injured horse with a busy resume a couple of lengths from being a TC winner?

Beyer should take time out at the beach with a pony balloon around his waist.

[AndyC]

I like Beyer...and have said so, many times in the past. I also gave my reasons for why I think his "opinion" is wrong in this case. Beyer never indicated in a prior column that he thought California Chrome needed the lead in order to win the Belmont...nor had he previously mentioned that CC had exhibited a noticeable dislike for having dirt kicked in his face. Beyer also had never previously mentioned that he considered Commissioner to be such a force to be reckoned with on the lead. That's why I called him a "critic", in this case.

Beyer has a right to his opinions...and so do we.

Personally watching the race I thought Espinoza did a fine job. But I sure couldn't definitively say that Moss and Beyer were incorrect.

[depalma113]

let's see. your on the even money favorite to win the triple crown. your on the rail nearing the final turn and your following a horse nobody believes has a shot to win. horses are starting to move from behind on your outside. do you:
A-stay behind a horse that has very high odds to stop dead in his tracks at the quarter pole and look like a total jackass while riding a horse that could win the triple crown
B-do you inch out and put the horse in the clear so he has at least a shot

I think he made the right call.

C - You never put your horse in that situation.

[affirmedny]

Did I miss it? Not once was a grabbed quarter even mentioned.


yes you missed it:

The people connected with California Chrome concluded immediately that he hadn’t been his usual self. “As soon as he came out of the gate,” Espinoza said, “he was not the same.” After the race, the colt had blood coming from his right front foot — he had evidently been stepped on by another horse — and this certainly might have affected him.

[Tom]

No horse left?

He lost by two lengths...

In a very slow last quarter.
Nothing impressive about it.
I was not impressed with the winner.

[Cratos]

In a very slow last quarter.
Nothing impressive about it.
I was not impressed with the winner.
You wasn't impressed by the winner? That is okay because some of us is a lot harder to impress.

Therefore please review the Trakus data for after the race and if you are still not impress I suggest it is not the winner that didn't impress you.
.
Incidentally, my choice and posted on this forum before the race was Tonalist.