Are There Any Good Systems?

[kingfin66]

That is the question. I've been doing this workout on the Coffee Break Milllionaire with mixed results. On the surface, it is wonderful in its simplicity and looks like genius when a nice price horse hits (don't we all feel like geniuses when we hit one of those!). On the other hand, it is making bets based on a mechanical method without much judgment involved.

I don't really have a problem with a system play if it shows a profit over time. Hey, I ordered the book right and as a bonus got a "special" call from the author inviting me to spend another $2500 to join his syndicate. But I digress.

Has anyone ever bought and used a system - not software or a great handicapping book - but a fairly simple rote system that helped them win? If so, what is the system called, why do you like it, what does it involve (racing cycles, betting, looking for rare longshots, tote board plays, whatever). If you have results you are willing to share from workouts, please feel free to post them.

Conversely, if you wish, feel free to share a system that you thought was awful, but please include the same information as above.

This thread is not meant to bash any companies or authors as has been done in other threads. I'm just curious to see what everybody has to say about various systems that really worked for them, or didn't work at all.

[andicap]

Problem is Kingfish if I had a simple system that really worked, why would I post it here?

I don't mean to be snide, but I think you're being a bit naive. You might get responses from people about systems that worked for a while and then collapsed tho.

I do have a theory about people who test systems. Lets say you test 100 races and get a 35% ROI. Eureka!!
Then you test the next 100 races and you hit a losing streak and your ROI sinks to 8%.
I believe the vast majority of people will surrender that system because of the psychology of the losing streatk rather than loooking at the 8% profit over 200 races (admittedly still a very small sample, but promising nonetheless.)

As to systems that don't work, go to the ATM site, look in the archives and there's a harness system I sold to them in 1982 or so that's in there! It worked for me on paper (I fudged the results a little but it was still profitable even without the fudging).

[Pace Cap'n]

Maybe, sort of.

Years ago when I didn't know handicapping books existed, I bought one system and soon was inundated with offers for others. After buying three or four, it was apparent that most were total crap. The worst was a "can't miss" exacta system using the tote that would require betting as much as $300 per race, in two-dollar increments.

One was good enough that I use it still. It was called "The Secret of the Backward Z" and involves improvements in the early calls of the last two races. I would describe it in detail but hate to foul someone's copyright. It gets very few plays, maybe one a day per track, but can hit some nice price winners.

Kelso Sturgeon sells a system that assigns points to contenders based on factors such as recency, trainer %, speed, etc. I would recommend it highly to the novice capper or casual fan, but it would be of little value to a more experienced player. If nothing else, it is a great tool for learning to read a racing form.

My basic view on systems is the same as it is regarding touts, "pick" sellers, and public selectors. If I'm going to put up my hard-earned money on a horse, I want to succeed or fail on my own. I sure as heck don't want to be sitting there thinking "Why in the hell did I listen to him?".

[bettheoverlay]

Horse racing, like life, is governed by the laws of chaos. The magic 5 rules, strictly followed, will lead to nothing but frustration.

I recommend checking any system or angle on todays races, and tomorrows, and the day after tomorrows, rather than the past. Most systems look real good in the past.

I do think there are positive and negative factors to be identified, however. Oddly enough, I find much more predictive power in the negatives.

[timtam]

I've purchased many many systems over the years and now with Ebay many I missed I get for a few cents on the dollar. I know I was just thinking of this thread 2 days ago when I followed every rule to the T in a system which gives you 37% winners and was shut out for 3 different tracks on 2 seperate days. Most plans have "magic" betting systems which even make your ROI better (we all know the fallacy of that). I even got an old one from EBAY which picks 3 different horses betting them in different spots 1st horse to win 2nd to place and 3rd to show and then bet in a W P S P W increment. So in a 6 horse field you have half the entries covered but always in different spots. I never even tried that one but I think I'd be more confused whethor I was betting the 3rd horse to show or to place in the 4th race and the 2nd horse to win or place. And everybody wants documentation of a solid monthto make sure their system doesn't work when they know that before they send it to you.
I've gotten bits and pieces of handicapping advice from various systems but all and all an entire system which continues to work without varying the rules for certain conditions is still beyond me. Diogenes was looking for an honest man Timtam is looking for a winning system. Honest and horse racing system seller in the same sentence WHEW!

[Pace Cap'n]

Originally posted by bettheoverlay
I recommend checking any system or angle on todays races, and tomorrows, and the day after tomorrows, rather than the past. Most systems look real good in the past.



Here's what I've never been able to figure out: Any new system, any new angle I hear of, any new piece of information at all, is absolutely 100% guaranteed to produce at least one $40.00 winner in YESTERDAY'S races.

[kenwoodallpromos]

If you do not automatically believe all the BS about no system working, streaks, racing, tall tales, or that all workouts are phony, you can PM or email me. See my Selections threads recently.

[Buckeye]

I got one but guess what? Exactly.

[timtam]

Kenwoodall,

Does that mean you have a system that continueoulsy works?

Is this coming from the guy who says Hollywood Park is a fast track not knowing the races are at night which could effect the track condition. Ya sure I'm convinced!

I never see you actually post a horse its always front runners are going to win or some vague statement which after the race you backfit your strategy. Hmmmm

[kenwoodallpromos]

!st Hollywood night race 6f fraction was 1:08.64- last night race 6f fraction was 1:09.9. What do you consider fast? What do you consider "continuous"? I just go by my ROI on show, place, spot wins, track speed prediction wins, overall handicapping wins. / I do not continuously make selections online. I publicly hamdicapped 12 racing days last year and have a record. / I made selections of favorites in 24 dirt races on the selections board lately, 15 favorites won, so I was wrong 9 times! / If you like show betting, I correctly picked 47 in a row and 90,3% over a paper test period of 370 horses. / The reasons I like my systems is after much research I have found relatively simple systems that work continuously enough for me, and payoffs are decent because not too many others are using them. I do not sell them to individual bettors I give away my WOODALL TRACK SPEED PREDICTION SYSTEM. If I can I will license it like Byers figures.

[kenwoodallpromos]

My systems do not pick individual horses, I do that with overall capping and spot betting. My track speed system just predicts track speed and major bias and the user picks the horse they want. My place/show consistency system has set rules for eliminations, but then I have to assess the value and risk based on PP patterns and regular capping, but it does not too long.

[kenwoodallpromos]

The 2 worst systems I know are progressive, or doubling until you get a winner; and dutching, which I say is betting against yourself. / Winning systems I have read about: The best angles I found are in the book Beat The Track, and on www.flatstats.com; They give % of winners next time out. / I also like and use various angles and systems which eliminate losers. / The only true "system" I believe works is to bet the best value in the race. The problems with systems with strict rules is they do not apply to all races; each race is individual enough that to find the best value takes assessing the horse to that race, and each other horse individually for value. / What I do is actually shortcuts to positive ROI's without doing full handicapping!!

[Tom]

www.flatstats.com

The ";" is stopping the above link from working.

[Buckeye]

If I had ONE system that worked, why would I need the other 99?

There are no systems that have always worked, nor are there any systems that will always work forever.

That's the truth.

[andicap]

Ken

just curious. with all due respect. WHy did you stop posting on the site after 12 days?

[kenwoodallpromos]

Tom- thanks.! / Andicap- 1st week was supposed to be for testing me, but gamblerinparadise put them and articles on the site w/o my permission. I tried to negotiate a deal and he ask me how much I wanted for my picks- I said $1,000.00 per month and he said ok. When I never recieved a contract in the mail I quit.

[The Skeptic]

Yes there are some very easy systems or should I say angles. The key is implementing them consistantly without wavering to temptation.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I do not think you can have a "consistent" system or angle without having to be selective to the degree the system requires. Some require more selectivity than others to be successful. / You can just play lone early speed in sprints if you think the track is fast enough but takes selectivity; you can play show bets based on trainer % or just on horse's recent success but more races may qualify, for example.

[hurrikane]

Oh Boy,

I tracked Mr Woodall's picks as the big public handicapper. It was a big loser. Then he explains that he was picking 2 horses to show. What a joke.

WARNING

anytime you see :

'WOODALL TRACK SPEED PREDICTION SYSTEM'

stuff your money in your pocket and run as fast as you can!!!!!!

[andicap]

Did he make a profit betting two horses to show?? I've never heard of anyone doing that. even after the fact.

:confused:

[kenwoodallpromos]

Hur is a liar. As public capper I never specified horses to place or show; I only picked 1, 2, or 3 choices to win. / I have won betting real money on 2 horses to show. Play does not occur very often. / You can run from my system if you like, up to you!

[kingfin66]

Ken,

If I didn't know any better I would swear that Hurrikane doesn't like you. It's one thing for someone to not like your system, but the comments seem a tad personal in nature. Just for kicks I looked at other comments by Hurrikane to you...not nice. It's too bad because you seem like a nice guy. Thanks for sharing your insight in my thread in a positive way.


Mike

[kenwoodallpromos]

Hur is acyually on my ignor list and was not harrasing me for awhile, so I checked what he just said here. As a public capper I picked 12 days, and 10 were on the site. I last onm 2 Sundays but had a +roi the rest, I purposely picked different tracks, and picked 1 horse, 2 horses, and 3 horses. I showed overall profit for 1 horse and 2 horse picks to win, I was 20 wins in 36 raxes 1st choice at LS, and I picked 7 1st choice winners at CD '03 Kentucky Derby Day. My webmaster, Dick Lane at www.gambleinparadise.com (now out of business) told me the 7 wins did not matter, I should have picked the Derby winner (The only reason I did not pick FC is because I did not realize that "statebredNY" meant pure Ky pedigree!). I concluded that most online picks sites want to catewr to losers who only are interested in big shot horses, trainers, and races like a lot of bettors! / If anyone followed my picks completely they made a profit. / I used track speed prediction as well as regular handicapping. My 20 of 36 at LS and the first week GGf picks I did not usa PP's, just programs and track speed prediction wed-sat. / Anyone can try my prediction system on paper or to bet for free. I use it for tracks whose workouts are 49.0 or less 4f dirt and doo very well. That means I won all 1st week '03 at DM but did not bet after that there. I won all last wek up to gerby day CD because the track was very fast and early leaders paid $10-15. Track crew slowed the track down 2 full seconds at 1 1/4 miles after Friday's races and prior to the Derby. I knew they would because ut was the 1st day their website did not list the track being "rolled"(sealed) on a dry track! So I knew I could go ahead and pick the best horses on paper. Most of my '03 Derby Day [icks were favorites. / Hur and anyone else is invited to trash my system and keep others from trying it- more payoff distributed to me! ? have been trashed previously on this forum- Most recrntly by Hothorse, who came on and said he was the King of GP and called me yellow for not wanting to compete on the selections forum with him. So I correctly predicted 10 of 12 and 15 of 24 first choice winners at CA tracks and Hothorse has not been seen since!LOL!!

[kenwoodallpromos]

In this thread TimTam said he has never seen me post horses, just general stuff. When I predicted favs to win and 10 of 12 horses going off as favs won, why an I being trashed by TimTam? Does TimTam know there is only 1 favorite per race? Get serious or stand in front of me at the window so I can take YOUR $$$! I will now look on the selections board for TimTam's record!! TimTam- My system is FREE!

[tcat]

I don't know you, but I will vouch for Hurricane!

Going after really good handicappers like Hurricane and Track Judge (the good Dr, if you didn't know) is not a way enhance your image.

[kingfin66]

Tcat,

Hurrikane may be the greatest handicapper ever. Does that give him the right to come into this thread and rip Kenwood's opinion like that. It's one thing to have a nice discussion related to the thread, but quite another to just rip somebody like that.

If you think that I, or anybody else, is going after Hurrikane, then I suggest that you re-read his post and other posts that he has made in reference to Ken. Not nice.

As far as my reputation goes, don't worry, I treat everybody with respect and will always do so, because that's the way I was raised.:)

[GameTheory]

On a lighter note, I've been meaning to ask Ken -- does your keyboard not have an ENTER key? I've never seen a single paragraph break in your posts. In the long one above, you've actually got "/" marks between sentences. Why not use an actual blank space to make things easier to read?

Also, why do you use an exclamation point (often multiples) behind 90% of your sentences? If I were to speak to you in person, would you yell everything at me?

I'm not trying to be a wise-ass, I'm actually curious...

[kingfin66]

We definitely shouldn't take all of this too seriously. For most of us, racing is a diversion. The only type of typing I can't read through ARE ALL CAPS...drive me nuts.

I think the internet is a convergence of people from all walks of life, different careers, levels of keyboard training, education, etc. Some people have an easy time with grammer, punctuation, typing, etc., while for others it is a challenge. Some people can do things well that the rest of can't and vice versa. I'm definitely not trying to slam anybody in this thread or on the board, but some people are better at keyboarding/punctuation, etc. than others.

[dav4463]

pUNcuATION and Spellling is NOt a BIG deAL TO me !!!;;;

[kenwoodallpromos]

I learned by hit and miss.
I aam still learning.
Thank you for any help.
I will try the suggestions.
I remember Hur use to have some interesting information on this forum, Do not know how well he handicaps, just that he has had a big problem with me as a public capper, which I retired form last May 10, 2003. lol.

[timtam]

Ken,

I was just wondering how much money you actually wager on your show bets and how much do you usually make in a week at the track. Sometimes when we struggle it seems you always hit and can't understand why every one doesn't.

[timtam]

Ken,

I wasn't trashing anybody. This game is tough enough and I come on this forum to learn. I learned stuff from you and want to thank you for it. I have no bone to pick with anybody but this business about seeing me at the windows. If you play the tracks I do then you are playing against me and I do know there is only one favorite in a race but sometimes that isn't declared until after the race is off .

[kenwoodallpromos]

My place/show bets are my seperate consistency system, I check entries and then PP's and bet maybe 2 days per week, qualifying horse by horse, not race by race. I avoid straight maidens and stakes races.
It is possible to bet up to 40% of available races. I bet the same amount on small tracks, and the same amount per race but larger bets on major tracks. I bet mostly CA, Tx, NY.
This past year I have not bet as much on ploce/show as I have been working on track speed more. My track speed system for wins is completely different than my place/show system. My wins are matching running style to track surface and horse success patterns to current race, not consistency.
I do not bet every day, I wait until the track and entries are to my satisfaction. Summer of 2003 after the first week of DM, I stopped betting almost all summer because tthe DM, Saratoga, and FL tracks were all lousy for my betting.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I usually bet to place/show $20 on small tracks and $50 on majors. More than $100 and $200 would mess up the payoffs.
The favorites are almost always M/L favs, but I do not like even odds or less. I have only made a few thousand per year so far because I do not bett all the time and screen my betting days very carefully.
I an very conservative, not a gambler, and hate to lose. I am always researching and refining, and trying to "sell" (license) my system.
I am giving free advice to a small owner/trainer in Fl, Tom Schell. One of his horses just ran at CRC todayt, Goodbye Heaven. A friend of his is legal trainer and his wife is listed owner. I avdised him as to how good the works were, as well as CRC and Gp surface and bias, and what the jockey should do.
Tom's horse had a 35+ work on a slow track, and the CRC track today was a very slow 50.4; GH finished 3rd at M/L 8-1 after fading badly in the prior race, but I have not seen the charts yet so I cannot yet take any credit.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Take $100.00 to bet with. Track takes all but $80. We have to make $20 + the $80 to break even (natural ROI 25%).
My place/show bets I compete with those who bet place/show as savers or across the board, as a minor bet; I do ok because I cap just for place/show on those.
My track speed win bets I bet with the crowd, but I have to know when the crowd is going to bet correct on enough of the racecard for me to come out ahead. Early lead favs win 33%, but on very slow tracks maybe 20%; on faster than normal tracks maybe 40-50%. Bris track reports show some of that. Sundays are lousy for my track speed win bets.
I am just beginning to study normal speed and slow tracks. Ca is faster a lot, as is Tx. See Hollywood Equibase 4f dirt works today, 5-3-04 for a very fast track; CRC 4f dirt works today 5-3-04 for a very slow track.

[hurrikane]

Ok

first...thanks tcat.

second....search the threads...show me where I lied.
I do not tolerate being called a liar.

wrote a long reply..deleted it...not worth the effort.

good luck.

PS....I still say RUN!!!!

[hurrikane]

I would also say..

If I have offended anyone here...then I must be on an open forum.

If you can show me where I lied please do..maybe I have a future in politics.


:D

[kenwoodallpromos]

Did Hur mention any good systems he found as per the thread topic? Quinn's improvement patterns seem to be a good angle, as ddid Ainslie's advice that stakes favs can be bet to place.

[hurrikane]

Sure....

nTRN > 200
nWK > 80
rKrat > 1
nFLD > 6
nMLO > 5 and < 20

There you go.

problem is....if you dont' have my data you can't use much of it.

[hurrikane]

Ken, I suppose we could all just bet the fav place and show and look at the morning works so we can say we have a 'system'.

I think you have created the most boring unimaginative bs 'system' I have ever seen. Bet p/s on chaulk. Even the gandma's at the track have more balls.

But if you like it...go for it.

To sell it you will have to make up some real bs like the other shills out there. Hmmm...you may have a future in all this.

good luck.

[kenwoodallpromos]

1) on PA it is not for sale. It is free. 2) My track speed is Win. My place/show is a completely seperate system. 3) You are right about it being a boring system.

[BeatTheChalk]

Free is always a good price...How can I try it .. I have a large
data base...thanks

[Tom]

Kane...looks like a solid spot play.
Just wrote a new querry to test it out.
The ones I have had the most luck with are you ML eliminations, Shock Speed, and this one:

K=>100
pdiff<3.1
EL<4
LP<4
Odds>2

[kenwoodallpromos]

In sent you an email.
Can you get stats for various days of the week at NY, Ca, Tx for fav win %, DRF variant, or winning running style? Thanks.

[Hosshead]

Kane' -- I was looking at the system you posted and was wondering if you have the roi from your db?

I may be wrong about this, but in looking at those 5 factors, it seems that maybe 3 of them are for getting a winner that pays a decent price. - rKrat >1, nFLD >6, MLO 5-20. So that leaves the other 2 factors to actually pick which horse to bet. (unless you left something out) So first of all, maybe you usually have more than one horse per race? Second, is the only criteria that they must meet is: nTRN >200, and nWK >80?
I might try checking it out on past races, but don't want to put all that time into it unless I understand you correctly.
Hard to stay away from those K1's ! - Hoss

[hurrikane]

Hoss,
don't throw out the K1s.

By itself great for exotics.
this is good with low vi and false fav races. will give you good horses to put int he exotics.

For a +ROI on a spot play you have to add trn 30 day win % and track test for fr1 lv1 acl or ap. Any combo of these on the right track will push it into the black.

Check the HTR board and you'll find more like it......

Tom, good contender seletor. Similar to what Donnie does.

Good luck!

[andicap]

Originally posted by Tom
Kane...looks like a solid spot play.
Just wrote a new querry to test it out.
The ones I have had the most luck with are you ML eliminations, Shock Speed, and this one:

K=>100
pdiff<3.1
EL<4
LP<4
Odds>2

EL, is that supposed to be EV or EP? (I suspect EV)

EL, are you thinking of the trains in Chicago?

;)

[hurrikane]

Yeah Andi,

looks like Tom has been out cutting the grass again.

:D

[jackad]

Shows any profit over time? Shows at least a {fill in the blank} profit over time?
Also shows a minimum win frequency of {fill in percentage}?

[andicap]

But Jackad, why discard a "good" system?

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by jackad
Shows any profit over time? Shows at least a {fill in the blank} profit over time?
Also shows a minimum win frequency of {fill in percentage}?

I guess for me, a "good" system is one that is fairly consistent as far as not having long runouts and is profitable over time. Others may not mind long runouts and, thus, wouldn't mind a system that chooses a lot of longshots.

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by andicap
But Jackad, why discard a "good" system?

Andicap,

Unless I missed something, I don't think Jackad was doing anything other than asking what constitutes a good system.

Besides my above response, I would add that at good system should be quick and easy to apply, not require a large database or software, and generates an avg. of two plays per race card.

[Tom]

Originally posted by hurrikane@HTR
Yeah Andi,

looks like Tom has been out cutting the grass again.

:D


Or smoking it! hehehe!

Yeah, it is EV and LV from the program screen, biut I have also used EP and LV with similar results. On speed favoring tracks, I use EV and SP becasue SP factors in second call as well.
The general idea is to have a horse who can be close and can finish. It is a form of the old Sartin 3-3-3 plays.

[andicap]

Originally posted by kingfin66
Andicap,

Unless I missed something, I don't think Jackad was doing anything other than asking what constitutes a good system.

Besides my above response, I would add that at good system should be quick and easy to apply, not require a large database or software, and generates an avg. of two plays per race card.

Yes, yes. I got confused with another thread where someone (I thought it was Jackad, but possibly not) said they had used an old system had "good success" and then stopped using it. So sorry.

[kingfin66]

No problemo Andicap.

[jackad]

Steve Wolson just completed posting on this forum a series of 500 bets that showed a win frequency of 32% and an ROI of +11%.
Now that seems to be a "good system."

Do you know of anyone who can do better?

My question still remains: How do you define a Good System? Yes, ease of use and consistency of results are important. But is ANY profit over time just great or would you require a minimum percentage profit of [fill in the percentage]?

[hurrikane]

that's interesting. where is the post

[jackad]

Wolson's post is in the Selections section.

[BeatTheChalk]

I read your posts regarding a spot play ..but I had to hire a
code breaker to decipher :) No luck so far. Can you offer any
help ? thnks .. ..

[Bill Cullen]

A good system or spot play isn't about picking winners; its about identifying horses whose money odds are building faster than its winning chances.

Show me a system that both steers people away from a horse and yet identifies a horse with some value relative to the average winning chances expected for that specifc racing scenario.

Ultimately, it's not the impact values that matter, since you can have a positive ROI for a facor with an impact value of less than one.

It's the many mutiple strands of different human psychologies hidden in the collective behavior of the crowd that determines ROI, not impact values.

You need the statistics guys to verify reality for us; to say yea or nay to our dreams and hopes.

But you need poets and storytellers and shamans too, who every once in a while can connect with the collective unconsciousness of the crowd and for a few moments can see a pattern among all those interweaving pathways to the betting windows.

Imagination is more important than knowledge - Albert Einstein

[GameTheory]

Ok, that's the third time for this post. Now I'm going to check off-topic to see if I can find it there too...