JohnGalt1
06-08-2014, 09:27 AM
On Belmont day I played only 4 of the 13 races because of too contentious races or liking horses with unacceptably low odds.
Race 3 and 11 I passed.
Races of 1 1/4 or longer distances I rely on distance pedigree more than some other factors.
On Saturday, race 3 the 1 1/2 dirt Brooklyn Invitational the Bris distance breeding was, from highest to lowest--
5) Ever Rider (?) Foreign horse FOURTH
8) Norumbega 116 FIRST
4) Cat Burglar 116 THIRD
3) Micromanage 114 SECOND
2) Ground Transport 112
6) Golden Soul 108
1) Eriugena 99
Race 11 The Belmont
8) Commisioner 120 SECOND
6) Matuszak 117
3) Matterhorn 116
11) Tonalist 116 FIRST
5) Ride on Curlin 115
1) Medal Count 114 THIRD
9) Wicked Strong 114 FOURTH (DH)
4) Commanding Curve 110
2) California Chrome 109 FOURTH (DH)
10) General A Rod 104
7) Samraat 99
If one were to throw out the 3 and 6 because they didn't figure to be competitive the exacta was gettable, and even though Rid on Curlin was eased, the top five was the trifecta on breeding alone.
I have seen this occur before.
I'm too lazy on a Sunday morning to check which race, but a 1 1/2 mile turf race either on Derby or Preakness day, 2 of the 3 top distance numbers finished 1,2, and both had fairly long odds.
I'm sure Tomlinson and others who provide distance breeding numbers would work as well.
I usually have used marathon breeding numbers as a secondary factor, but since pace figures and speed figures or more unreliable the longer the distance, I'm going to rethink my priorities for these races.
Race 3 and 11 I passed.
Races of 1 1/4 or longer distances I rely on distance pedigree more than some other factors.
On Saturday, race 3 the 1 1/2 dirt Brooklyn Invitational the Bris distance breeding was, from highest to lowest--
5) Ever Rider (?) Foreign horse FOURTH
8) Norumbega 116 FIRST
4) Cat Burglar 116 THIRD
3) Micromanage 114 SECOND
2) Ground Transport 112
6) Golden Soul 108
1) Eriugena 99
Race 11 The Belmont
8) Commisioner 120 SECOND
6) Matuszak 117
3) Matterhorn 116
11) Tonalist 116 FIRST
5) Ride on Curlin 115
1) Medal Count 114 THIRD
9) Wicked Strong 114 FOURTH (DH)
4) Commanding Curve 110
2) California Chrome 109 FOURTH (DH)
10) General A Rod 104
7) Samraat 99
If one were to throw out the 3 and 6 because they didn't figure to be competitive the exacta was gettable, and even though Rid on Curlin was eased, the top five was the trifecta on breeding alone.
I have seen this occur before.
I'm too lazy on a Sunday morning to check which race, but a 1 1/2 mile turf race either on Derby or Preakness day, 2 of the 3 top distance numbers finished 1,2, and both had fairly long odds.
I'm sure Tomlinson and others who provide distance breeding numbers would work as well.
I usually have used marathon breeding numbers as a secondary factor, but since pace figures and speed figures or more unreliable the longer the distance, I'm going to rethink my priorities for these races.