Randy Moss critical of ride.. [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Hambletonian

06-07-2014, 08:57 PM

it did not look like a good ride to me. should have stayed down inside and came out for the drive. if the horse doesn't like dirt in his face as some have said he should have kept the lead---it certainly did not hurt Commissioner to cut the fractions. looks like he may have thought speed would back into him, so he took him off the rail for the turn, and placed him in a position to be floated wide by Tonalist. Nevertheless, even though this was not Espinoza's best effort ever, the horse did not look like he was moving like a winner at any time during the race, speed held up otherwise and he could not gain through a final half in 51 seconds.

unlikely they will be memorializing any of these guys in bronze any time soon.

very very tough to keep your edge over as many months as CC did. exacta was a repeat of the peter pan....prep race over big sandy doesn't seem to hurt.

Mineshaft

06-07-2014, 09:40 PM

Milkshaker

06-07-2014, 09:40 PM

Is the original post a reference to...

A) Randy Moss being critical.

or

B) Victor E.'s performance?

If it's "A," Randy Moss should be as damn well critical as he pleases. He backed up his reasoning with a cogent view of the race. One might disagree, but he isn't making some confabulated exareggration without basis.

Quite frankly, I welcome the debate. I am sick of the namby-pamby feel-good, stick-to-the-script we're-all-in-agreement-for-the-good-of-the-game storylines that smother the usual netowrk broadcast.

Buckeyeracefan

06-07-2014, 09:44 PM

Ride looked fine to me. Espinoza had his horse in a position to win & horse just couldn't get it done.

Greyfox

06-07-2014, 09:45 PM

It was a poor ride on a horse that wouldn't have won anyways, even with a perfect trip.

Jeff P

06-07-2014, 09:46 PM

Twitter image of California Chrome's foot from DRF photographer Barbara Livingston: Here. (https://twitter.com/DRFLivingston/status/475446117409095680/photo/1)

-jp

.

EMD4ME

06-07-2014, 09:46 PM

Ride looked fine to me. Espinoza had his horse in a position to win & horse just couldn't get it done.

Exactamundo... he was dressed up in the Derby and Preakness. Horses who get ultra perfect dynamics and race scenarios are excellent bet againsts next out. Today was a perfect example of that.

Mineshaft

06-07-2014, 09:46 PM

The horse came out the 2 hole. He won the KY Derby and Preakness by sitting 3rd or 4th just off the pace. Why Randy Moss thinks the horse should of went to the lead is beyond me?

Mineshaft

06-07-2014, 09:49 PM

It was a poor ride on a horse that wouldn't have won anyways, even with a perfect trip.

Please tell me how it was a poor ride

Bullet Plane

06-07-2014, 09:50 PM

If you heard the interview with Espinoza, then you know that he didn't have him where he wanted him at all.

The reason may be that the horse grabbed a quarter. Maybe, that's why he wouldn't respond to the jockey.

To critical observers, it was obvious the horse wasn't in the correct position.

Moss was right on, for what he knew at the time. And what he said was right in line with what Espinoza said after the race.

Fudge

06-07-2014, 09:54 PM

That was a lousy ride by espinoza. Makes me think he was bought. WTF did he take him 5 wide to the outside when he was RIGHT THERE, one off from the rail. He makes me sick.

Greyfox

06-07-2014, 09:54 PM

Please tell me how it was a poor ride

Indecisive. Espinoza didn't know whether to stay inside or move outside.
Ultimately, he went outside too late and may have cost the horse up to 4 lengths of energy going wide.
The bottom line is, California Chrome was not going to win anyways.
#8 and #11 were superior animals today.

Bullet Plane

06-07-2014, 09:57 PM

Thanks for the pic Jeff.

Man that looks bad!

pandy

06-07-2014, 10:02 PM

The inside figured to be tougher. It's not the rider's fault, the horse got beat. Let's give credit to the winner, Tonalist, who was huge, three or four wide for a mile and a half, and he beat four horses, one of which was California Chrome, a horse that had won 6 races in a row including the Derby and Preakness.

Jens

06-07-2014, 10:05 PM

Thanks for the pic Jeff. After seeing that my estimation of Chrome has gone up!! It takes some courage to finish 4th going 11/2 miles with that kind of damage. Wow!!!

TheEdge07

06-07-2014, 10:06 PM

Why was Commisoner in front of CC?

RANDY MADE THE POINT TO Bailey,,, randy kept interrupting..good stuff

alydar

06-07-2014, 10:15 PM

It seems to be one of the toughest races to ride. So much pressure and such a different track. I think that the ride was fine. CC just didn't have it today. It is a tough campaign. The Belmont is especially tough because of the distance and the fact that you are facing fresh horses.

Look CC had a great campaign he has nothing to be a shamed of. It just shows you how very tough it is to get it done.

horses4courses

06-07-2014, 10:37 PM

Randy Moss was so full of it after the Belmont, it was trickling out of his ears.

Espinoza gave CC every chance to win.
Had he gone to the front, he would have faded by the eighth pole at the very latest, and probably before that.
The horse just did not have it today. Five weeks ago, California Chrome wins the Belmont by daylight.

CC has been push-button for some time now.
The race today set up perfectly for him to have his burst of acceleration late.
Had the pace been faster, any stamina limitations for CC would have surfaced quickly.
That didn't happen, and the rider set it up just fine to win the race.
It just wasn't to be. Nobody's fault.

The horse looked dull to me before the race, compared to his other races this year.
That was more of the problem than human error ever was.

Jerry Bailey called it correctly.
Randy Moss is just plain wrong.

Run Nicholas Run

06-07-2014, 10:41 PM

Please tell me how it was a poor ride

Vic got himself in trouble wrangling Chrome back,
and instead of CC getting into a rhythm where VE has his hands down
he had his hands up and was pulling a bit on the reins, watch at the
point when he went to get outside and Rajiv pushed on WS to close the hole.
He was outridden in the same manner with War Emblem.

bigbrown

06-07-2014, 10:42 PM

Jens

06-07-2014, 10:50 PM

I kinda think the problem might have been trying to win a Grade one race with a damaged (at the start) hoof more than being "dull" or getting a "bad" ride.

Mineshaft

06-07-2014, 10:54 PM

wow, if the pic is about today CC's race , isn't this an important factor for the outcome ?

go run a marathon and 1 mile in you get a quarter crack right below your heel tell me how you feel when you get to the finish line

therussmeister

06-07-2014, 11:13 PM

---REDBOARD ALERT!---

I should have mentioned this before, but the odds were 1/9 that if Cali-Chrome loses, some "expert" somewhere will say it was a bad ride.

Hank

06-07-2014, 11:16 PM

Victor's ride was OK.Putting CC on the lead at would have been BETTER given the fractions,he only got beat a couple lengths,saving ground "could" have made the difference,who knows.

tanner12oz

06-07-2014, 11:17 PM

tucker6

06-07-2014, 11:32 PM

No gas in the tank when the button got pushed..im not a victor fan but he didn't have a move today..if anything I would say he should have went for the lead and just hoped others couldn't close faster then he stopped
I sorta agree with this. Not sure Victor had an answer today either way. As they came to the head of the stretch, CC's jet engine sputtered and went out. As victor said, he flattened when the button was pushed. If CC had pushed to the lead early, would he have gotten caught?? We'll never know, but I suspect that he would have gotten caught. Not sure there was a pace scenario where CC wins this race. Comments anyone??

Stillriledup

06-07-2014, 11:36 PM

If you watch CCs previous races, you see that he's not necessarily a "push button" horse, he's a little tricky to ride. Watch the first quarter of the Ky Derby, CC is really into the bit and tugging, but this desire to "run off" with the jock hasn't been talked about because he's won his races. Its really hard to ride a horse who pulls at a mile and a half, you need to be calm and relaxed and this horse doesn't race like that.

ArlJim78

06-07-2014, 11:40 PM

wow, if the pic is about today CC's race , isn't this an important factor for the outcome ?
Yes it is from after today's race. there is also a picture going around showing Matterhorn breaking over on top of Chrome and clipping the back of his front right, removing that gash in his quarter. since he went on to run completely uncharacteristically I think its not a great leap to think it might have been a big factor today.

Stillriledup

06-08-2014, 12:00 AM

Yes it is from after today's race. there is also a picture going around showing Matterhorn breaking over on top of Chrome and clipping the back of his front right, removing that gash in his quarter. since he went on to run completely uncharacteristically I think its not a great leap to think it might have been a big factor today.

But if it was a big factor, wouldnt' he have finished way behind? He only lost by 2 lengths or something like that, he wasnt far away from winning, at a mile and a half. I'm thinking that the adrenaline was a factor and the foot wasnt much of a factor...the bettors who correctly selected the winner, the runner up and the 3rd place horse deserve full marks, they earned the win fair and square.

fmolf

06-08-2014, 12:15 AM

But if it was a big factor, wouldnt' he have finished way behind? He only lost by 2 lengths or something like that, he wasnt far away from winning, at a mile and a half. I'm thinking that the adrenaline was a factor and the foot wasnt much of a factor...the bettors who correctly selected the winner, the runner up and the 3rd place horse deserve full marks, they earned the win fair and square.Espinoza told Donna after the race he was right were he needed to be and that chrome was a little tired, a little flat.

tucker6

06-08-2014, 12:17 AM

Espinoza told Donna after the race he was right were he needed to be and that chrome was a little tired, a little flat.
said the tank was empty at the 3/8th pole and knew nothing was going to happen in the stretch.

PaceAdvantage

06-08-2014, 12:32 AM

That was a lousy ride by espinoza. Makes me think he was bought. WTF did he take him 5 wide to the outside when he was RIGHT THERE, one off from the rail. He makes me sick.You have much to learn about this game.

PaceAdvantage

06-08-2014, 12:33 AM

Thanks for the pic Jeff.

Man that looks bad!I doubt it affected him all that much, if at all...with all the adrenaline coursing through his veins, he probably didn't even feel it until the race was over...

Stillriledup

06-08-2014, 12:36 AM

You have much to learn about this game.

We all do.

pandy

06-08-2014, 12:38 AM

I doubt it affected him all that much, if at all...with all the adrenaline coursing through his veins, he probably didn't even feel it until the race was over...

I agree. To humans, a gash like that looks bad, but horses are much bigger, tougher, and stronger than we are. I doubt very much that the incident cost him the race. Not to mention the fact that California Chrome is no ordinary horse. He is a very good horse, and he tried as hard as he could, he just wasn't good enough. If he was one of the greatest horses of all time, like a Citation, Secretariat, etc., he would have won the race regardless of being stepped on at the start.

PaceAdvantage

06-08-2014, 12:38 AM

We all do.But most especially those who think Espinoza might have been bought... :lol: :lol: :lol:

The silliness never ends...

Clocker

06-08-2014, 01:45 AM

That was a lousy ride by espinoza. Makes me think he was bought.

What is the winning jockey's share of a $1.5 million dollar purse? What is the psychic and emotional value to a jockey of winning a Triple Crown, not to mention the future earnings value? Do you think he would throw that race for a couple hundred thousand? $500K? Do you think anyone could pay him that and still make a killing on the race?

Redbullsnation

06-08-2014, 01:55 AM

So he should...that was a poor ride by Vic. Pick one spot and stick with it. If you want to go inside, STAY INSIDE

nijinski

06-08-2014, 02:22 AM

I doubt it affected him all that much, if at all...with all the adrenaline coursing through his veins, he probably didn't even feel it until the race was over...

Exactly what I thought and may he fully heal fast !

Stillriledup

06-08-2014, 02:27 AM

What is the winning jockey's share of a $1.5 million dollar purse? What is the psychic and emotional value to a jockey of winning a Triple Crown, not to mention the future earnings value? Do you think he would throw that race for a couple hundred thousand? $500K? Do you think anyone could pay him that and still make a killing on the race?

Here's the thing though....he was 4-5 which means he's only really a 50.50 chance to win......so, if he turns down an "offer" to toss the race and tries and loses, he comes away with nothing.

Its different if he was 1-9 or 1-5.

But, i do agree with you, they would have to pay this guy a LOT of money to toss the race, and then they would have to bet tens of thousands on the race in order to make it worth their while and they still have to win

If you pay off the jock and box up the other 10 horses, you have to really hope it doesn't come in some order of Tonalist, Ride On Curlin and Wicked S because if it does, you not only pay off a jock a lot of money, but you actually lose money betting the race.

The math doesn't work at all, not to mention that in midstretch, it looked like CC was going to hit the board, so if he was "paid off" he really cut it close.

thaskalos

06-08-2014, 02:38 AM

It figures that Randy Moss would criticize Espinoza's ride. I knew Moss was a perfectionist the first time I laid eyes on his pace figures... :rolleyes:

bks

06-08-2014, 04:12 AM

Stillriledup

06-08-2014, 04:39 AM

The ride was perfectly fine for a horse that was best. CC was not that horse.

More surprising was the comment from Collmus that CC broke well. I was watching with my wife and I saw CC stumble and said so immediately. I'm sure I wasn't the only one.

Maybe they should have had Durkin call the race on NBC, you know, he might have seen the stumble.

I said the same thing "he stumbled" and the guy missed it.

dilanesp

06-08-2014, 05:06 AM

the horse was empty down the lane. Im afraid the lemon was squeezed dry. The ride was perfect he put the horse in a position to win you cant ask for anything else. The horse didnt fire when it counted. Fawk he only got beat 2 lengths

Correct.

More generally, people need to STOP ASSUMING THAT EVERY TIME A HORSE LOSES IT HAS AN EXCUSE.

All horses eventually lose, if you run them enough. 95 percent or more of racetrack excuses are just that.

California Chrome's loss was entirely predictable and understandable. The horse was in a position to win. There's no reason to even look for an excuse here. He got beat. Every horse does at some point.

acorn54

06-08-2014, 08:35 AM

Twitter image of California Chrome's foot from DRF photographer Barbara Livingston: Here. (https://twitter.com/DRFLivingston/status/475446117409095680/photo/1)

-jp

.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/horseracing/belmont-stakes/california-chrome-loses-triple-crown-at-belmont-stakes-1.8370219

read this- long island paper newsday-the trainer sherman, said he may have injured himself leaving the gate.

Mineshaft

06-08-2014, 10:12 AM

cosmicway

06-08-2014, 10:39 AM

Espinoza was fairly crowded by other horses.
He had two options:
Option (a) was to sit back and wait, but that was not CC's way of racing.
Option (b) was to force his way round the outside. That too was n't CC's way of racing but had the element of aggression liked by the CC in the two previous occasions.
So if go for plan b and plan b fails, some will say why not go for plan a.
The same if he does the other thing but again fails to win.

It looks very much like one of those races where the jockey is confronted with a different scenario to what he expected. Perhaps at some point he should have been more careful not to lose the rail position.

If all fell right, I think he could make it third. Not more.

Nosed

06-08-2014, 10:48 AM

I thought Victor might have taken him off the rail a little too soon, but if he stays on the rail and gets boxed in, he would have got criticized for that too.
None of the jockeys that are riding today were around for the last triple crown, so easier said than done. And as for going for the lead early in the race? None of these horses have run 1 1/2 miles before this race.

cosmicway

06-08-2014, 10:51 AM

mountainman

06-08-2014, 10:51 AM

Exceptional horse,but not a great one. Failures such as his just make it sweeter when the real thing eventually comes along.

In my opinion, pedigree issues aside, he runs too high-headed and on the bit to get 12-furlongs. Not redboarding, I said this several times on the air last week.

On a side note, I'm a huge fan of the announcer, but too much emphasis on a hanging California Chrome in mid-stretch painted a slightly inaccurate picture of what was transpiring. The enthusiasm and wording made it seem cc was dead even for the lead and on the very precipice of victory, and that wasn't quite the case. Once again, though, I think the guy is an incredible caller.

Robert Goren

06-08-2014, 11:02 AM

We are going a lot of excuses and one of them might actually be true, but to the punters like me, it does no matter. He lost. A new day is here and there is new races to handicap. Let the owners and the trainer figure out what happen. That is their job. My job is to bet winners. I am not going to worry about Chrome until he is in the PPs again.

Nosed

06-08-2014, 11:17 AM

You nailed it on that one. The owners and trainers are the only ones making the big money on the triple crown races. To bettors 2/1 or 10/1 is still the same as on a $5,000 claimer.

Longshot6977

06-08-2014, 11:20 AM

You nailed it on that one. The owners and trainers are the only ones making the big money on the triple crown races.

And the racetracks make the most.

goatchaser

06-08-2014, 11:33 AM

I agree. To humans, a gash like that looks bad, but horses are much bigger, tougher, and stronger than we are. I doubt very much that the incident cost him the race. Not to mention the fact that California Chrome is no ordinary horse. He is a very good horse, and he tried as hard as he could, he just wasn't good enough. If he was one of the greatest horses of all time, like a Citation, Secretariat, etc., he would have won the race regardless of being stepped on at the start.
Then what was all the Hub Bub about Buddy Delp, Ronny Franklin and Spectulor Bid? It was just a tiny Safety Pin?

goatchaser

06-08-2014, 11:34 AM

:eek: We are going a lot of excuses and one of them might actually be true, but to the punters like me, it does no matter. He lost. A new day is here and there is new races to handicap. Let the owners and the trainer figure out what happen. That is their job. My job is to bet winners. I am not going to worry about Chrome until he is in the PPs again.
I'm more a Kick Returner,,I fumble away Money

senortout

06-08-2014, 12:01 PM

there is an old saying if I may .....
no foot, no horse
and further,
a safety pin is rumored to have cost the 'Bid his triple crown

I agree. To humans, a gash like that looks bad, but horses are much bigger, tougher, and stronger than we are. I doubt very much that the incident cost him the race. Not to mention the fact that California Chrome is no ordinary horse. He is a very good horse, and he tried as hard as he could, he just wasn't good enough. If he was one of the greatest horses of all time, like a Citation, Secretariat, etc., he would have won the race regardless of being stepped on at the start.

mountainman

06-08-2014, 12:04 PM

Then what was all the Hub Bub about Buddy Delp, Ronny Franklin and Spectulor Bid? It was just a tiny Safety Pin?

You had me at 'hub bub.'

classhandicapper

06-08-2014, 12:29 PM

I'm not going to say it was a good or bad ride, but how many people would have liked his chances as much if I told you before the race he was going to be making a 5 wide sweep late turn trying to close down a few horses in the stretch of 12F race?

Not me.

I thought his best chance was to open up into the stretch and hope to hold on late based on what we saw of his finishes in the shorter Derby and Preakness.

The thing is, it's hard to fault the jock much for how it worked out. I'm sure he would have liked to have been in the 2 path stalking the lead turning for home. But they sort of had him pinned inside for awhile and he decided to go outside instead of saving ground and hoping to come between late. He just didn't have enough horse at 12F.

goatchaser

06-08-2014, 02:08 PM

You had me at 'hub bub.'
It's one of my fav bands

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75bS88YX8f4

nijinski

06-08-2014, 02:50 PM

Saratoga_Mike

06-08-2014, 04:48 PM

It figures that Randy Moss would criticize Espinoza's ride. I knew Moss was a perfectionist the first time I laid eyes on his pace figures... :rolleyes:

I enjoyed his DRF blog, which lasted about 18 months and resulted in about three posts on his part. He always seems like a very hurried/busy man. I'm not sure what he's busy doing? Besides the Moss Pace figure thing and part-time broadcasting, does he have another job?

Billnewman

06-09-2014, 06:48 AM

I don't think he thought enough scenarios through using simple logic. If this happens then i will do this. Like in the preakness he didn't plan any of that he just reacted and it worked out for him. This is my opinion obviously but i think he had to things on his mind all week and loading into the gate. #1 get a good jump out of the gate and #2 don't move prematurely. Moving early worked ok in the preakness but everyone who has raced in the belmont except for Ron Turcotte have paid the price for the early move. And the fear of moving eary is way he surrendered his nice 2nd place position down the backstretch. i dont think he would of used anymore energy than he did by taking back and running around than if he had stayed a length off Commissioner and made his run when a challenger appeared. I ill bet a dime to a dollar that if Espinosa could rewind time with the knowedge with him. He'd do just that.

LottaKash

06-09-2014, 01:37 PM

I didn't see any bad ride....All I saw was a horse that couldn't get the distance at that rate...

horses4courses

06-09-2014, 01:41 PM

Great reply Mountainman He wasn't getting a 12f win and I agree he's
done great things , the Belmont was not to happen .

I disagree about the 12 furlong thing.
Had the Belmont been run in early May, I believe CC wins for fun.

We'll never know, though, and he won't ever be asked to go that far again.

cosmicway

06-09-2014, 01:57 PM

Medal Count threw the spanner in the works.
Maybe Espinoza forgot himself a little at that point, midway in the race.
Then it became a choice between Scylla and Charybde. Stay back and attempt to rally in the stretch or go out and try to take them on (Point Given style). Both actions were not CC's cup of tea and he chose the early attack plan.
Would have finished closer but we can't say that all this made the difference between winning and losing.

chadk66

06-09-2014, 02:25 PM

Twitter image of California Chrome's foot from DRF photographer Barbara Livingston: Here. (https://twitter.com/DRFLivingston/status/475446117409095680/photo/1)

-jp

.If you noticed right after the race his handler was walking him back and was on the phone. he kept looking at his feet. this is what he was on the phone about.

Marshall Bennett

06-09-2014, 02:51 PM

When Victor gave up his position and then had to go wide he lost any chance. I don't think the injury was a factor.
Randy Moss was right.

cosmicway

06-09-2014, 03:00 PM

When Victor gave up his position and then had to go wide he lost any chance.

You think it would be better to settle and then try to come between horses ?

I don't think the injury was a factor.

Are you sure ? Looked bad.

Stillriledup

06-09-2014, 03:44 PM

Moss is wrong here for the simple fact that he was essentially asking Espinoza to "adjust on the fly" and ride a "Different" race than what was successful in the first 2 legs.

These people are not smart enough to know that from post 2, they need to rethink the strategy, as it turned out, the only shot he might have had was to send to the front and set the pace and hope to hold on. Maybe they knew their horse had no shot to "wire the field" and had to be "held up" and rated as it was a long race.

Also, as many people have asked, why was this guy out and about touring talk shows and attending baseball games when he could have been in NY riding for 3 weeks solid at Belmont getting to learn the track and the configuration?

This jock just essentially "showed up" got a "leg up" and went with it, with no plan, no cares in the world, he was laughing in the post parade soaking in all the fame and had no clue what was going to happen when the gates opened.

Wing and a prayer.

Tom

06-09-2014, 04:07 PM

Wasn't the rail already taken?
Had CC stayed on it, he would never had a chance.
I'll watch again tonight, but I think coming out was his only shot.
He still would have not gotten there.

wiffleball whizz

06-09-2014, 04:22 PM

I enjoyed his DRF blog, which lasted about 18 months and resulted in about three posts on his part. He always seems like a very hurried/busy man. I'm not sure what he's busy doing? Besides the Moss Pace figure thing and part-time broadcasting, does he have another job?

Think he does college football or something sports related....seen him doing a show a year ago

horses4courses

06-09-2014, 07:01 PM

Wasn't the rail already taken?
Had CC stayed on it, he would never had a chance.
I'll watch again tonight, but I think coming out was his only shot.
He still would have not gotten there.

I agree.
He could have been ridden harder to get to the rail,
but nobody near the lead was going to sit back and
let Espinoza reel off the slow fractions that occurred.

It would have been forcing a quicker pace which, with
CC's ability to see out 12 furlongs in question, was
probably not going to be a wise ploy.

The pace that materialized should have played to
CC's strengths. Had he run at Belmont in early May
against the same horses, I believe he wins easily.
IMO, it was a perfect ride on a horse who
was not just at his best.

The question for the future is - can they get
California Chrome back to his best again?

Dark Horse

06-09-2014, 08:10 PM

cosmicway

06-09-2014, 08:40 PM

Medal Count was CC's Blucher.

Stillriledup

06-09-2014, 09:51 PM

Espinoza said he didn't feel the same power under him as in the other races. He knew that early on. Jockeys will then take a more wait-and-see approach to see if the power is there later in the race. So he did the right thing. He had Chrome perfectly positioned entering the stretch, and for a second or two it looked like we might have a TC winner. But the horse didn't have the push button quality he had displayed in the earlier races. Form of day... It's why horses need to be far more lucky than human athletes. If Lebron has a bad game, he can correct it two days later. Nobody will think lesser of him. But for the TC your shot at eternal glory is gone.

I question anything a jock says, especially if he blames the horse as to deflect blame off him. What was he going to say, the horse was loaded with run at all points and i just messed up? The horse had as much run as he normally does, and the jock wanted to throw up the false flag so we don't question the ride and blame him.

EMD4ME

06-10-2014, 02:08 AM

It figures that Randy Moss would criticize Espinoza's ride. I knew Moss was a perfectionist the first time I laid eyes on his pace figures... :rolleyes:

LMAO!!! His pace figures are very inconsistent & many times way off.

Dark Horse

06-10-2014, 02:20 AM

I question anything a jock says, especially if he blames the horse as to deflect blame off him. What was he going to say, the horse was loaded with run at all points and i just messed up? The horse had as much run as he normally does, and the jock wanted to throw up the false flag so we don't question the ride and blame him.

Wasn't he perfectly positioned for the stretch run as they entered the stretch?
Look at the other races when Chrome entered the stretch. Push button. Not this time. There is nothing strange about a jockey, who knows a horse well, to know early on how much horse he has. But he can still hope that it will change later in the race, and sometimes it does. The last thing Espinoza should have done is to push the horse early on.

If Chrome had fired in the stretch as he did in the Derby, we would have a new TC winner. Espinoza did the best he could with what he had on this given day.

Dark Horse

06-10-2014, 05:35 AM

When all is said and done, who's rant was worse? Coburn or Moss?

I can't believe Moss would seriously think he knows better than Bailey. To me that's the height of arrogance, where Coburn was merely ignorant. And Coburn apologized... So I'd have to go with Moss.

mountainman

06-10-2014, 10:40 AM

raybo

06-10-2014, 01:44 PM

I didn't read this whole thread but my initial impression, after CC got to the rail, was, just keep him there until the stretch, then if you can get by, stay on the rail, if not move outside. It appeared that Espinosa didn't like the 1 path, at all, and raced in the 2 path instead. Maybe he thought the rail was dead?

Either way, I really doubt it would have made much difference, maybe not a dead heat though. It was obvious to me, that CC just didn't have his whole game on Saturday. I still think he's the best horse in that field, just not that day.

Here's hoping he continues to race, and we find out if he returns to the form many of us expected him to display in the Belmont. :ThmbUp:

BettinBilly

06-10-2014, 01:53 PM

dilanesp

06-10-2014, 02:22 PM

I'm still wondering if the Grabbed Quarter could have effected Chrome immediately. Espinoza said he noticed the difference coming out of the gate.
Times like this, I wish I was more of a "Horseman" to know how a Grabbed Quarter would or would not effect the perceived "Power" that Espinoza did or did not feel under him at the time.

I think a lot of horse racing fans who look for excuses need to start applying a version of Occam's Razor to horse racing.

The horse didn't want to go 1 1/2 miles. He wasn't bred to, his running style wasn't right for it, and even if he did want to do it, he didn't want to do it 3 weeks after one race and 5 weeks after another one.

That's the beginning and end of the "explanation" of the Belmont. Stop with the talk of grabbed quarters, jockeys, or anything else. HORSES LOSE. If you run them often enough, they all do. Chrome had won something like six in a row going into the Belmont. At some point, he was going to lose.

Racetrack excuses are almost always complete BS. Just please stop.

BettinBilly

06-10-2014, 02:41 PM

I think a lot of horse racing fans who look for excuses need to start applying a version of Occam's Razor to horse racing.

The horse didn't want to go 1 1/2 miles. He wasn't bred to, his running style wasn't right for it, and even if he did want to do it, he didn't want to do it 3 weeks after one race and 5 weeks after another one.

That's the beginning and end of the "explanation" of the Belmont. Stop with the talk of grabbed quarters, jockeys, or anything else. HORSES LOSE. If you run them often enough, they all do. Chrome had won something like six in a row going into the Belmont. At some point, he was going to lose.

Racetrack excuses are almost always complete BS. Just please stop.

I had my money on Tonalist for the WIN. And I'm not touting that loudly because it was a last minute switch from Wicked. I got lucky in that switch. ;)

I'm looking for an experienced horseman to tell us whether or not a Grabbed Quarter could effect the performance of a Thoroughbred. I realize some horses lose on distance. Could there have been another factor that ADDED to this?

Stillriledup

06-10-2014, 03:25 PM

I think a lot of horse racing fans who look for excuses need to start applying a version of Occam's Razor to horse racing.

The horse didn't want to go 1 1/2 miles. He wasn't bred to, his running style wasn't right for it, and even if he did want to do it, he didn't want to do it 3 weeks after one race and 5 weeks after another one.

That's the beginning and end of the "explanation" of the Belmont. Stop with the talk of grabbed quarters, jockeys, or anything else. HORSES LOSE. If you run them often enough, they all do. Chrome had won something like six in a row going into the Belmont. At some point, he was going to lose.

Racetrack excuses are almost always complete BS. Just please stop.

I agree, the horse lost because he wasn't good enough to win on this particular day, with this particular jock, in this particular race at this particular track from this particular post.

He lost fair and square.

ILovetheInner

06-10-2014, 03:28 PM

If it takes a textbook ride to beat the likes of Tonalist, I'd rather the horse DIDN'T win the triple. And it can't be assumed had CC set the pace that the splits would have been so moderate. A 3/5 triple crown seeker has a target on his back, and it's unlikely that rival jocks would have permitted a relaxed tempo. Very unlikely.

I agree with this emphatically. We are talking about the Triple Crown. One of the things to make it tough is it is very hard to luck out in three races. There had been earlier talk of what exactly is a horse "worthy" of a Triple Crown - horses who don't need all pieces perfectly in place to win would be a good start.

Pegram has said he holds no resentment towards Desormeaux for the ride Real Quiet received in the Belmont, for the same move was launched to win the first two legs. His colt simply wasn't quite good enough, and TC winners need to be good enough, so he was not one. The loss was far more aching.....Real Quiet ran a winning race for however nitpicked the ride. Pegram is very accepting that.

Do I think CC had every chance to win and failed to do so? No. Do I think had he been put on the pace that the race would have run the same as it was? No. The one-two placers were prominent throughout and stayed on far better. Rosario, certainly, knew he had a good galloper who could run all day long and is way too heady a rider to have let Chrome have loped along on easy fractions. No matter the scenario, it was not CC's day. Both Clement and Pletcher had their horses ready...one colt inexperienced, the other just getting his mojo back. A TC winner is supposed to beat those.

As for the grabbed quarter, I can't answer.....but Tim Tam was unlucky not to win the TC. Made a winning move and finished 2nd on a broken ankle. He ran on that for a quarter mile and still held his finish clear. Little hard with that for me to feel a grabbed quarter denied a TC champion.

In that race at Gulfstream last year where Fort Larned stumbled, lost his rider then ran a hole in the wind....grabbed his quarter there. Also fell on his head. And with no jockey to encourage him was full o'run.

Clocker

06-10-2014, 03:32 PM

I had my money on Tonalist for the WIN. And I'm not touting that loudly because it was a last minute switch from Wicked.

Tonalist didn't exactly come in off a long winter on the farm either. Few are mentioning that he won the Peter Pan Stakes, a G2 at 1 1/8 miles, 4 weeks before the Belmont. And Commissioner ran 2nd in that race.

BettinBilly

06-10-2014, 04:04 PM

Tonalist didn't exactly come in off a long winter on the farm either. Few are mentioning that he won the Peter Pan Stakes, a G2 at 1 1/8 miles, 4 weeks before the Belmont. And Commissioner ran 2nd in that race.

Absolutely Clocker. As I was about to place the WIN on Wicked (whom I favored very strongly in the Derby), I kept thinking back to Tonalist's WIN in the Slop at the Peter Pan. He won that field handily. Last minute decided to place it on Tonalist. Sure glad I did. Very disappointed in Wicked. I also had him in my Exotics. All losers of course.

pandy

06-10-2014, 04:14 PM

I don't like all the excuses either. I knew before the race that Victor would get blamed if the horse lost, because the fans root so hard for these horses that they don't want to believe that it's the horse's fault. Guaranteed that if Victor had tried to wire the field, he still would have lost, and he still would have gotten blamed by people who would say, "Why would you set the pace when the horse obviously likes a stalking trip?"

The bottom line is, in this race, Tonalist was the best.

Clocker

06-10-2014, 04:34 PM

I knew before the race that Victor would get blamed if the horse lost

Amazing how the smartest jockey in the world got so stupid all of a sudden. I guess all those other jockeys were coming in with fresh brains.

pandy

06-11-2014, 10:41 AM

Belmont should be commended for the way the track was prepared for Belmont stakes day. No horses went wire to wire, and the racing was outstanding. Bayern, who was awesome, is the only horse that had the lead at the pace call and won. I wish Santa Anita would be able to figure this out.

Perhaps the fact that almost all of the winners except Bayern, who ran in a 7f race, made a wide rally after a stalking trip, factored into Victor'd decision not to try to wire the field, which wouldn't have worked. Tonalist was the best on Saturday.

QTwithTQ

06-11-2014, 11:19 AM

After the race was over, I tried watching the replay on my iPhone which unfortunately did not work because there was no cell service at Belmont (add it to the list of complaints). After a couple of hours of gridlock, I finally started moving and got cell service. At that point I watched the race a couple times and it was evident to me that Chrome got a nice ride. Not everyone will agree but I just believe that the inside posts are tough and Victor did what he should have done given how unlikely it is that a horse can win this race in wire to wire fashion. He played the percentages and put his horse in a fine position to win the race coming for home but the Chrome just didn't have enough left in him to get to the wire first. Not the jockey's fault and certainly nothing to be ashamed of.

I think this article just posted by James Willoughby is on point:

California Chrome and the Belmont: In defense of Victor Espinoza (https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/california-chrome-and-belmont-defence-victor-espinoza)

thaskalos

06-11-2014, 02:39 PM

Absolutely Clocker. As I was about to place the WIN on Wicked (whom I favored very strongly in the Derby), I kept thinking back to Tonalist's WIN in the Slop at the Peter Pan. He won that field handily. Last minute decided to place it on Tonalist. Sure glad I did. Very disappointed in Wicked. I also had him in my Exotics. All losers of course.

I've seen this argument more than once here...and I just don't understand it.

You thought back to Tonalist's wire-to-wire win in the SLOP...and this convinced you to bet on this horse on a DRY track...where it was obvious that he would NEVER see the lead during the early part of the race.

Could you tell us WHY you were so impressed by Tonalist's wire-to-wire victory in the slop? Doesn't the slop usually FAVOR lone front-runners? And how could you have expected that Tonalist would repeat his winning performance in the Belmont...when it was well known that he would be off the lead in that race?

Forgive me for being so inquisitive...but I think this is the SECOND time that I read a post where you say that Tonalist's win in the slop convinced you to bet him back in the Belmont...and I would just like to see a little more of your reasoning.

Thanks in advance...

BettinBilly

06-11-2014, 02:56 PM

Well, Thas, how do you explain a last minute switch?

One other Handicapper I hang with placed a WIN bet on Tonalist too. That may have influenced me as well, not sure.

Yes, you are obviously correct, and I had no obvious reason to move my bet from Wicked to Tonalist based on his past performance. But I did.

His win at Peter Pan impressed me, so I handicapped him with the others via TimeformUS, liked the Pace Projection, his speed, and the fact that he was fresh. Also, Wicked had disappointed before, and it did cross my mind that the Colt may fall short again. I can't tell you that there was a definite "I'M BETTING TONALIST" decision, but just before I placed the bet, I switched it from Wicked to Tonalist.

Luck perhaps, or a hunch. Not sure. You and I are close to the same age, and I've been doing this a long time. I can't always explain a last minute bet switch, can you?

Sorry I could not be more help.

I want to add, I certainly was not bragging about my handicapping on that switch. I bet Wicked in the Derby, and was favoring him again in the Belmont. All of my exotics keyed off Chrome or Wicked. Losers. So I am not touting my handicapping. Just lucky in this one case. We can all use a little bit of luck, eh? ;)

The WindfallAngler

06-12-2014, 01:10 PM

I doubt it affected him all that much, if at all...with all the adrenaline coursing through his veins, he probably didn't even feel it until the race was over...Do tell.

This colt reportedly had never been sick a day in his life. Here, he was obviously suffering sudden and unexpected pain, possibly as never before. Can you truthfully say that couldn't possibly account for 1.75 lengths of trouble?

Was it enough to cost him the win? Who can say? But those who bet that California Chrome would run out of the money were lucky to cash, so much is plain.

PaceAdvantage

06-12-2014, 06:12 PM

Do tell.

This colt reportedly had never been sick a day in his life. Here, he was obviously suffering sudden and unexpected pain, possibly as never before. Can you truthfully say that couldn't possibly account for 1.75 lengths of trouble?

Was it enough to cost him the win? Who can say? But those who bet that California Chrome would run out of the money were lucky to cash, so much is plain.Something like that likely wouldn't affect him in a significant manner...but anything is possible I suppose...

Note in my reply that you quoted, I typed "I doubt" not "I'm 100% sure it did not bother him"

pandy

06-12-2014, 09:07 PM

I noticed that a lot of people are saying, "that wasn't the same horse," and stuff like that. I don't feel that way at all. I thought Chrome ran pretty much the same race he always runs but this time he didn't get the ideal stalking trip that he loves and the extra distance was probably a factor, plus several other horses that were eligible to improve did, and, he got beat. People make it sound like he ran badly. He only lost by 2 lengths. He's a real nice horse, but not a great horse.

BettinBilly

06-12-2014, 09:18 PM

You're probably correct, Pandy.

We will never know. We're all Monday Morning Jockeying. I keep going back to what Espinoza said, something like "he wasn't the same horse" coming out of the gate, and that he was "empty" early in the race. I may have the quotes a bit off, but that's the general gist of the Jockey's take. If you believe that, then the grabbed quarter may have been a factor. If not, then he just got beat.

Who knows. But I agree. He's a real nice horse. Not a great horse, but a nice horse indeed.

A TC sure would have been good for our sport. Too bad it didn't materialize, but that was no surprise to most of us.