QTwithTQ
06-07-2014, 08:29 AM
Below are my quickie plays/thoughts on today’s card. I’ll be at the track so make sure you follow me on twitter @TRCTomQ since that is where I will post my wagers as I make them throughout the day. It is a must as we see how the track plays and also as we adjust after scratches are posted.
Without further ado –
Race 1:
2 and 9 stopped in the stretch during their last race. 7 is coming off a layoff and can certainly figure in the outcome, but let’s go for a price here. Exacta Box 1,3,8. Also, use these in a Pick Three (Races 1-3).
Race 2: The Easy Goer
I like the 1 to maintain his form and the 3 to improve with the addition of Lasix. Exacta Wheel 1,3 with 1,3,5,7. Use the 1,3,7 in the Pick Three that you started in Race One. Also, use them in a Pick Four (Races 2-5).
Race 3: Grade 2 Brooklyn
Exacta Wheel 3,4 with 3,4,5 here. We can use the 3,4 in our multirace bets here.
Race 4: Grade 1 Jaipur
Really like the 10 and 4 here. Exacta Wheel 10,4 with 10,4,8,1. Use 10,4 in your multirace bets.
Race 5: Grade 2 Woody Stephens
Fantastic race! Let’s play an Exacta Box 3,7,11. Use 3,7,11 in your multirace bets. This is the last leg of the Pick Four we started in Race 2.
Race 6: Grade 1 Acorn
The 8 is feeling great and should be better than the rest. Let’s use her on top and try to hit a price underneath. Exacta 8 – 2,6,7,13. You might also want to bet a Double using the 8 in this race and the pick in the next race…
Race 7: Grade 1 Ogden Phipps
Sick matchup here! Going to bet the 6 to Win and use her in a Double with the pick in the 6th Race. The 5 scares me and the 1 is an amazing competitor as well. These races are worth going out of your way to see.
Race 8: Grade 1 Just a Game
Exacta Wheel 10,5 with 2,5,9,10. Start a Pick Four here (Races 8-11) and use the 2,5,9,10.
Race 9: Grade 1 Metropolitan
Exacta Wheel 1,5 with 1,5,9,12. Use 1,5,9 in the Pick Four.
Race 10: Grade 1 Manhattan
Earlier on twitter (my handle is @TRCTomQ), I mentioned that one of my favorite angles in turf routes is horses making their third consecutive turf start in their form cycles. Five contenders fit that profile here - #3 Rookie Sensation, #5 Boisterous, #7 Five Iron, #8 Real Solution, and #9 Kaigun. I also expect that #6 Seek Again and #4 Grandeur are going to be tough in this race. Of all the contenders, I'm hoping that Real Solution can buck his losing trend in the US and get to the wire first here. I also like the First Time Lasix on Grandeur, who might just end up being better than these. Exacta Wheel 4,8 with 4,5,6,8. Use the 4,5,6,8 in the Pick Four.
Race 11: Belmont Stakes
Nobody would love to see a Triple Crown winner more than me. I think we are all in store for a treat, it should be a fantastic race. I'm not going to deny that CALIFORNIA CHROME has a big chance to win this race, but I have two reasons to bet against him – 1) he has a target on his back and the added distance certainly won’t do him any favors, and 2) his odds will be low, 3/5 at best. Chrome's 'breakaway' move in the early stretch is uncanny and a valuable weapon in Espinoza's arsenal, but the longer journey to that point will be draining and have an impact on how much he has left approaching the wire. In a measure of feet, the final stretch run to the wire at Belmont is a shorter distance than that at either Churchill Downs or Pimlico, so if Chrome has the same ridiculous burst in him that we are getting accustomed to seeing, then he wins. But my hunch is that he will not get another perfect trip and that combined with the added distance will prevent him from winning the Triple Crown.
With that said, WICKED STRONG had an awful post in the Derby but still managed to pick up a check. He enters the race well meant after five weeks off; he is working well and has shown that he can run all day. This horse calls NY home and Jimmy Jerkins will have him ready to go; he wins if we can get a clean trip, relax about four lengths off the lead and run a new top figure. COMMANDING CURVE will set out to prove that his second-place finish in the KY Derby was no fluke and he ships in with a real chance to make some noise in this race. He has yet to regress in his career and I believe he has a solid chance to score the upset if Bridgmohan can time his move well. Curve would be my top choice but trainer Dallas Stewart is 0 for his last 9 at Belmont going back to 2011. This horse is fit and dangerous.
Selections:
Wicked Strong
Commanding Curve
California Chrome
Wager thoughts:
- I will look to play one or both Wicked Strong and Commanding Curve WP, but will be watching the board and the horses in the paddock closely in the minutes leading up to the race. I might play both in a Double with my top choices in the prior race as well.
- Exacta Wheel 4,9 / 2,4,9 (1 unit)
- Exacta Wheel 4,9 / 1,7 (0.5 unit)
- Trifecta 4,9 / 2,4,9 / 1,2,4,7,9
- Use the 4,9 in the final leg of the Pick Four you started in Race 8.
Finally, I do think that horses that run in all three legs in the Triple Crown are at a disadvantage in the Belmont Stakes, as this great article on Thoroughbred Racing Commentary shows [ThoroughbredRacing.com (https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/recent-belmont-stakes-history-working-against-california-chrome) ]. It’s one of the reasons why I expect California Chrome and Ride on Curlin to regress. If either wins, they got me. Bet smart and even though there’s value, don’t go over your head here.
You’re on your own in Races 12 and 13. Hope you all enjoy the races. I highly suggest you use this information and read over the Past Performances for yourself. Do what you feel is right for you. Good luck!
Without further ado –
Race 1:
2 and 9 stopped in the stretch during their last race. 7 is coming off a layoff and can certainly figure in the outcome, but let’s go for a price here. Exacta Box 1,3,8. Also, use these in a Pick Three (Races 1-3).
Race 2: The Easy Goer
I like the 1 to maintain his form and the 3 to improve with the addition of Lasix. Exacta Wheel 1,3 with 1,3,5,7. Use the 1,3,7 in the Pick Three that you started in Race One. Also, use them in a Pick Four (Races 2-5).
Race 3: Grade 2 Brooklyn
Exacta Wheel 3,4 with 3,4,5 here. We can use the 3,4 in our multirace bets here.
Race 4: Grade 1 Jaipur
Really like the 10 and 4 here. Exacta Wheel 10,4 with 10,4,8,1. Use 10,4 in your multirace bets.
Race 5: Grade 2 Woody Stephens
Fantastic race! Let’s play an Exacta Box 3,7,11. Use 3,7,11 in your multirace bets. This is the last leg of the Pick Four we started in Race 2.
Race 6: Grade 1 Acorn
The 8 is feeling great and should be better than the rest. Let’s use her on top and try to hit a price underneath. Exacta 8 – 2,6,7,13. You might also want to bet a Double using the 8 in this race and the pick in the next race…
Race 7: Grade 1 Ogden Phipps
Sick matchup here! Going to bet the 6 to Win and use her in a Double with the pick in the 6th Race. The 5 scares me and the 1 is an amazing competitor as well. These races are worth going out of your way to see.
Race 8: Grade 1 Just a Game
Exacta Wheel 10,5 with 2,5,9,10. Start a Pick Four here (Races 8-11) and use the 2,5,9,10.
Race 9: Grade 1 Metropolitan
Exacta Wheel 1,5 with 1,5,9,12. Use 1,5,9 in the Pick Four.
Race 10: Grade 1 Manhattan
Earlier on twitter (my handle is @TRCTomQ), I mentioned that one of my favorite angles in turf routes is horses making their third consecutive turf start in their form cycles. Five contenders fit that profile here - #3 Rookie Sensation, #5 Boisterous, #7 Five Iron, #8 Real Solution, and #9 Kaigun. I also expect that #6 Seek Again and #4 Grandeur are going to be tough in this race. Of all the contenders, I'm hoping that Real Solution can buck his losing trend in the US and get to the wire first here. I also like the First Time Lasix on Grandeur, who might just end up being better than these. Exacta Wheel 4,8 with 4,5,6,8. Use the 4,5,6,8 in the Pick Four.
Race 11: Belmont Stakes
Nobody would love to see a Triple Crown winner more than me. I think we are all in store for a treat, it should be a fantastic race. I'm not going to deny that CALIFORNIA CHROME has a big chance to win this race, but I have two reasons to bet against him – 1) he has a target on his back and the added distance certainly won’t do him any favors, and 2) his odds will be low, 3/5 at best. Chrome's 'breakaway' move in the early stretch is uncanny and a valuable weapon in Espinoza's arsenal, but the longer journey to that point will be draining and have an impact on how much he has left approaching the wire. In a measure of feet, the final stretch run to the wire at Belmont is a shorter distance than that at either Churchill Downs or Pimlico, so if Chrome has the same ridiculous burst in him that we are getting accustomed to seeing, then he wins. But my hunch is that he will not get another perfect trip and that combined with the added distance will prevent him from winning the Triple Crown.
With that said, WICKED STRONG had an awful post in the Derby but still managed to pick up a check. He enters the race well meant after five weeks off; he is working well and has shown that he can run all day. This horse calls NY home and Jimmy Jerkins will have him ready to go; he wins if we can get a clean trip, relax about four lengths off the lead and run a new top figure. COMMANDING CURVE will set out to prove that his second-place finish in the KY Derby was no fluke and he ships in with a real chance to make some noise in this race. He has yet to regress in his career and I believe he has a solid chance to score the upset if Bridgmohan can time his move well. Curve would be my top choice but trainer Dallas Stewart is 0 for his last 9 at Belmont going back to 2011. This horse is fit and dangerous.
Selections:
Wicked Strong
Commanding Curve
California Chrome
Wager thoughts:
- I will look to play one or both Wicked Strong and Commanding Curve WP, but will be watching the board and the horses in the paddock closely in the minutes leading up to the race. I might play both in a Double with my top choices in the prior race as well.
- Exacta Wheel 4,9 / 2,4,9 (1 unit)
- Exacta Wheel 4,9 / 1,7 (0.5 unit)
- Trifecta 4,9 / 2,4,9 / 1,2,4,7,9
- Use the 4,9 in the final leg of the Pick Four you started in Race 8.
Finally, I do think that horses that run in all three legs in the Triple Crown are at a disadvantage in the Belmont Stakes, as this great article on Thoroughbred Racing Commentary shows [ThoroughbredRacing.com (https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/recent-belmont-stakes-history-working-against-california-chrome) ]. It’s one of the reasons why I expect California Chrome and Ride on Curlin to regress. If either wins, they got me. Bet smart and even though there’s value, don’t go over your head here.
You’re on your own in Races 12 and 13. Hope you all enjoy the races. I highly suggest you use this information and read over the Past Performances for yourself. Do what you feel is right for you. Good luck!