Woody Stephens - Gr2

[PhantomOnTour]

Well, someone had to be foolish enough to start a thread on this race and try to pick the winner.

It's either very simple - Social Inclusion will roll out the gate and dust them.
Or a total puzzler - Social Inclusion falters, then what? A runner like Favorite Tale can make him work hard early.

The race begins and ends with him, and he may be the pace bomb, sure to obliterate anything near it (see Bodemeister in the Derby).

Natural to look for an off the pace runner:
Spot may be finishing nicely on the turnback, but I have him being too slow to get them all...NOT TO WIN.
Financial Mogul has faced some good colts in his five failed GrStks attempts, but looks like he is headed in the right direction, blinks on today, nice work tab...maybe? Only one win and just looks a cut below...NOT TO WIN.
Havana is a Gr1 winner over this surface, ran fast as a juvy last year, looks like he needed his last, eligible to improve big time...MUST USE.
Kobe's Back is very intriguing at 15-1 ML. Gets all the pace he wants to set up his run, Rosario up, 7f is his game, but he will likely be in last place early and must get by some very nice colts. Needs a lifetime best to win it...MAYBE.

Some others:
Bayern - don't like him from the rail post, gets out paced if he guns early.
Coup De Grace fell into the right trip by virtue of a bump at the start. Off the pace tactics are the way to go today...using him.
Embellishing Bob is a nice colt, but his 8-1 ML is too low. He is usable for me if Lezcano drags him off the pace a bit, and his price about doubles to 15-1 or so. His last two were pretty good.

At this point I am focusing in on Kobe keyed underneath in exotics as I feel he has an excellent chance to hit the board at a nice price...and swangin a bit with Havana on top of basically every runner mentioned above except Bayern.

Any insight on this one would be appreciated...good luck y'all

[RunForTheRoses]

No real insight here, I got home from work and figured I would get a few bucks head start with the SA P3(race 6), had the 1 at a nice price, the 6 in the 8th at a nice price but left out the ever hot AC Avila in the 7th (ran second with the 3). Already in the hole.

But I was just handicapping the Pick 5 for tomorrow and funny you should post this. It would be great if I could single the 11 Social Inclusion as I want to go deep in earlier legs. He does appear to be fastest but could a race like the Preakness be a detriment? The post should be fine. I do likethe 4 and 6, I think they should throw big races (the 1 and 3 further down and the 5 and 7 further down still).

[Thebigguy]

Im leaning heavily on Havana and Social Inclusion. Ill back up with Tonito M and Spot in case it totally melts down. I think Havana or Social Inclusion are both very logical and think its very likely that one of them wins this race.

[Robert Fischer]

Bayern is the best, but you know that Pletcher has really been working Havana. Havana was dull off the layoff, but this is a horse that had some of the best juvenile performances running into a fast pace and staying on well. He's stretching out to 7f here, 2nd off, and he should be sharp.

Social Inclusion is vulnerable.

[Valuist]

I know Kobe's Back has burned some money in his last couple, but I really don't think we will see 15-1 on him. If he duplicates his San Vicente, he's in the mix.

[Thebigguy]

Bayern is the best, but you know that Pletcher has really been working Havana. Havana was dull off the layoff, but this is a horse that had some of the best juvenile performances running into a fast pace and staying on well. He's stretching out to 7f here, 2nd off, and he should be sharp.

Social Inclusion is vulnerable.
I'm Bafferts biggest fan, but Bayern is best based on what?? Absoutley nothing factual.

[ArlJim78]

I'm going against Social Inclusion who I think will be singled hard in the pick5.
The horse has never survived a duel or passed anyone late and I don't think he can easily jump out ahead of these runners, so I'm going to pay to see if I can beat him. Plus his other issues at the gate, nervousness etc. I could be wrong but I'm going to try because the price will be right and thinking he'll be a vulnerable favorite.
I'm giving Havana another chance but I'm most interested in the Cali invaders, Tonito M and Top Fortitude. watch the replay how badly Tonito M was shuffled back, only to rerally in his first US start.
This is a big field and I think horses like Social Inclusion, Pure Sensation Favorite Tale, etc, might knock each other out and set it up for a horse like Top Fortitude or Tonito M. The beyer for their race seems light, but others have it rated higher. the morning line is 20-1 which is awesome.
I'm also throwing in Meadowood into the mix even though he probably is overmatched. I'm on the fence about Kobe. I'll see how I feel tomorrow, he might make the final cut.
seven furlongs is a tricky distance and I prefer to go with horses who are currently sharp at the distance. stretching out or shortening up to 7F is sometimes not as easy as you might think.

[Tom]

SI never sees the lead, never hits the board.
You heard it here.
Unless he wins :blush:

[MNslappy]

This might be the toughest race on the card to figure out, you can make a pretty good case for 8 or 9 of these horses.

[plainolebill]

I know Kobe's Back has burned some money in his last couple, but I really don't think we will see 15-1 on him. If he duplicates his San Vicente, he's in the mix.

It looks like the race may set up for him and he'd be tempting at 15/1, what bothers me about this horse is in 5 of 7 starts he's had trouble getting away from the gate.

[plainolebill]

SI never sees the lead, never hits the board.
You heard it here.
Unless he wins :blush:

I'm pretty sure he won't be leading early so he'll need to find a closing gear.

[Trips]

Tonita M is a serious race horse. Watch the replay of his last race.
Can be a player today at a decent price.

[Robert Fischer]

I'm Bafferts biggest fan, but Bayern is best based on what?? Absoutley nothing factual.

He's the best because I say he's the best! :D

we'll see in about 25 minutes

[reckless]

Not sure how many minutes there are to post time, but it's enough for me to post my picks in the Woody Stephens.

I am alive in the Pick 3 with the following four horses:

Financial Mogul (#2), Coup the Grace (#5); Kobe's Back (#10), and Social Inclusion (#11).

My key horses are Coup the Grace and Social Inclusion.

I have a long shot single in the Acorn Stakes -- Sweet Reason (#5) and in the Persoanl Ensign I am all in on Princess of Sylmar (#6).

I see a 'severe' closers bias which will hurt California Chrome in the Belmont, and there's another whammy, IMO, the inside seems dead too.

Good luck to everyone today and every day.

[ArlJim78]

Looks like Bayern didn't get the memo about the severe closers bias and dead rail. 1:20.75 wow

[Tom]

SI never sees the lead, never hits the board.
You heard it here.
Unless he wins :blush:

I had no respect for SI.
I had less respect for Bayern! :bang:

[Robert Fischer]

If My Miss Sophia can win this Acorn, then the double Bayern-MMS will pay 21-1. :ThmbUp:

[ArlJim78]

Social Inclusion? yeah I saw that coming.
Top Fortitude? yeah I saw that coming too.
Bayern? No I did NOT see that coming, unfortunately.

[kingfin66]

He's the best because I say he's the best! :D

we'll see in about 25 minutes

I guess we did indeed see. Nice call on Bayern. Not only the best, but MUCH the best.

[reckless]

Looks like Bayern didn't get the memo about the severe closers bias and dead rail. 1:20.75 wow

LOL...

Well, so much for knowing what I see :)

FWIW, Bayern was the last out of my 4-5 contenders.... if he drew a different (outside) post, I'd have thrown him in the mix. My bad decision cost me as I was dead right on Sweet Reason at a great price in the Acorn.

[bks]

Social Inclusion? yeah I saw that coming.
Top Fortitude? yeah I saw that coming too.
Bayern? No I did NOT see that coming, unfortunately.

Jim, have great respect for your handicapping.

File away for later: Kory Owens, a Arizona-based trainer, shipped across the country for this. Never seem him do that, ever, in 20 years. He is a very profitable trainer, especially when teamed w/ Kayla Stra in SoCal. He upset this horse against good sprinters at 30-1 last time, and he doesn't usually ship anywhere without a loaded gun.

Having said that, I played $75 worth of tickets and caught only a $2 exacta.

[Exotic1]

Bayern is the best, but you know that Pletcher has really been working Havana. Havana was dull off the layoff, but this is a horse that had some of the best juvenile performances running into a fast pace and staying on well. He's stretching out to 7f here, 2nd off, and he should be sharp.

Social Inclusion is vulnerable.

Very good call. I didn't consider that horse, at all.

For me, that was the most visually impressive race of the year. Astounding. That guy was pulling away at the end ready to go two turns. Wow.

[ArlJim78]

Jim, have great respect for your handicapping.

File away for later: Kory Owens, a Arizona-based trainer, shipped across the country for this. Never seem him do that, ever, in 20 years. He is a very profitable trainer, especially when teamed w/ Kayla Stra in SoCal. He upset this horse against good sprinters at 30-1 last time, and he doesn't usually ship anywhere without a loaded gun.

Having said that, I played $75 worth of tickets and caught only a $2 exacta.
yeah he caught my eye only having three starts and shipping out for a small outfit, but once I saw the replay of that last win I was sold and knew I was going to use both of those top finishers and thought it would be the basis for a huge pick5 score. of course none of that worked out, but take nothing away from that effort, it was huge even to come second. Nobody was going to beat Bayern today.

[Maximillion]

He's the best because I say he's the best! :D

we'll see in about 25 minutes

One hell of a pick here RF.