is Somali Lemonade a good win bet?

[footballfish1213]

race 8 on Saturdays Belmont card is Somali Lemonade a good win bet , people are talking about Stephanie's Kitten maybe as the better bet . after handicapping this race I just feel Somali Lemonade is more proven and the better bet.


anyone have some input on this ?

[the little guy]

OK, I'll bit, how is Somali Lemonade " more proven " than a multiple Grade 1 winner?

Not that she can't win....but she sure as heck is not " more proven. "

[Red Knave]

TLG, the OP is fairly new to the game and is impressed with current winning form.

FF1213, as quick and dirty example, look at how much money Somali has won vs how much Stephanie has won and how many races it took each one to garner those winnings. Which horse would you rather own?
Also, unlike when you and I went to school, Grade 1 races are better quality (usually (or at least often) :) ) than Grade 3 races. Notice Stephanie has won a G1 race in her current PPs and won or placed in Grade 2s unlike Somali. Now, it does appear that she may have some issues since she only had 3 races last year and may not be the horse she was but her odds may well be higher than they should be to compensate for that.
You previously posted that Coffee Clique was another possibility for you. That filly may also be a better bet given that she may well improve off her last and could also be higher odds than she should be.

As has been noted, Somali may win, but she may not be the 'better' bet.

[Some_One]

.

As has been noted, Somali may win, but she may not be the 'better' bet.

She might not be the most likely, but for me the 'better' or 'best' best is the one with the most +EV and SL could be that.

[kingfin66]

I don't think this is the race to find the long shot. Discreet Marq is a multiple G1 winner who looks to be in very good form. This horse is showing no clunkers in its PPs. Moreover, it looks to have a very favorable pace situation. Should it fail to hold on, the 2nd favorite, Better Lucky, looks like it is well positioned to take the victory.

[Valuist]

Somali Lemonade seems to be at her best on courses that are not firm.

[Thebigguy]

race 8 on Saturdays Belmont card is Somali Lemonade a good win bet , people are talking about Stephanie's Kitten maybe as the better bet . after handicapping this race I just feel Somali Lemonade is more proven and the better bet.


anyone have some input on this ?
She's not more proven or more accomplished, but she's getting good. I prefer her over Stephanie's Kitten, but think the 9,10 are the gals to beat.

[plainolebill]

She's not more proven or more accomplished, but she's getting good. I prefer her over Stephanie's Kitten, but think the 9,10 are the gals to beat.

I'm thinking along the same lines you are. Somali Lemonade has stepped it up since Matz put blinkers on and is probably a contender here.