Thursday and Friday Harness Numbers posted

[cj]

Check out my site for JoeG's harness numbers for Thursday and Friday, 9 racecards in all.

http://users.skynet.be/cjmilkowski

Joe has nailed many huge priced winners in the past, hopefully I can stay awake long enough to try a little harness racing.

[melman]

Tks again for the free info page you provide flyboy. As a member of the Air Force you should have no problem staying up late. You get to sleep all day!!!! Or play a little golf of course.

[cj]

Here are the results:

Kept it simple, win bet on top pick. I'm sure Joe had at least a few big prices who won as his second or third pick

bml: 2-11 (9.60, 5.80 )
cal: 1-12(2.60)
hop: 1-14 (7.20, 5.20)
M: 5-11 (20.00, 8.40, 17.60, 19.60, 4.00)
moh: 2-10 (6.60, 4.40)

Total: 11-58 Bet:116, Return 111

Very nice at the Big M!

? for Joe, what are your favorite tracks, and how do you use your ratings?

[JoeG]

Thanks CJ:

I like the tracks in this order:

Meadowlands
Balmoral
Mohawk
Hoosier
Cal-Expo

I almost never bet Cal-Expo with its short fields and Hoosier seems to be a track that does not hold to form.

By far the best track to bet is the Meadowlands with Balmoral and Mohawk/Woodbine a distant second. BigM seems to be the best track to use the late speed fractions (last half mile).

A simple way to use the numbers is to bet any horse to win at 10/1 or greater that is ranked in the top 3 for Late Speed (lower is better) and top 3 in Rtg (higher is better). Seems like a strange system but it hits about a 28% ROI by my latest figures. These numbers are for BigM, Balmoral and Mohawk/Woodbine. Betting the top 1, 2, 3 Late or Rtg horses blind has a loss around 3%. The sweet spot is the odds range of 10/1 to 39/1.

BTW, for BigM taking the top 3 RTG and Late horses gives you an average of 4.8 horses per race with an average field size of 9.2. The winner comes in around 75% of the time with a loss of 3%. This is probably the best simple "contender selection" I've found at the big ovals.

So the short answer is that betting the top rated horses blind is a slight losing proposition. These numbers are best used as a contender/value selector.

[sq764]

I think Meadowlands attractiveness has sharply tailed off. The racing there this meet has been the worst I can ever remember. Terrible cards, non-competitive racing. It's just awful.

I think Balmoral has the best racing in North America. Sat night Balmoral cards are the best around.

I really like Hoosier, as using raw last half fractions are a gold mine there. I love the long, wide stretch.

[trying2win]

Betting The Meadowlands harness has lost some of its appeal for me as well. The only days it seems that they have decent cards are on Friday and Saturday. Even then, I'm not getting the good results I used to be able to get there at one time. Seems the number of big-priced winners has gone down since last year. I'm crossing this track off my betting list

Dabbled with a few bets at Windsor and Fraser Downs now and then this year. Opinion...thumbs down. They've been crossed off my betting list.

Now on to some more promising harness tracks:

Balmoral Park has been the best big oval harness track for getting good results this year. Even Mohawk has produced some fairly good results the last while.

For a smaller 5/8 of a mile harness track, I'm pleased with the results obtained at our local track...i.e. Northlands Park lately. Don't get many plays there though, so one has to be more patient playing this track.

T2W