CD 10 furlong par time

[highnote]

If you make speed figures for Churchill on Derby day how do you figure out the 10 furlong pars (sectionals and final)? Do you estimate them?

[highnote]

If you make speed figures for Churchill on Derby day how do you figure out the 10 furlong pars (sectionals and final)? Do you estimate them?


I figured out pars for common distances at CD and then used regression to project the final time for 10 furlongs. The r-sq is 99.8%. And from what Charles Carroll has written the final times compared to distance are linear until the marathon distances. Then they tend to flatten out as horses can gallop at a steady pace for a quite a while.

When I used the projected 10 furlong time the daily variant for the KY Derby more or less fell into line. According to my new set of variants the track did not slow down for the Derby. Cal Chrome ran faster than the projected par time for 10 furlongs by about the same amount as every other horse on the card.

The only odd race is Race #12. This was the only dirt race on the card where the pace was slower than par. Funny though that the final time of Race #12 was exactly at par.

[Speed Figure]

That's awesome how you quoted your own post and replied like a different person!

[highnote]

That's awesome how you quoted your own post and replied like a different person!


:D I am so used to quoting it didn't even dawn on me how it looked!

[Stillriledup]

That's awesome how you quoted your own post and replied like a different person!

That's because anyone who talks about CD can easily get ignored.around here. Mention CD and you end up talking to yourself. :D

[highnote]

That's because anyone who talks about CD can easily get ignored.around here. Mention CD and you end up talking to yourself. :D


I didn't say I was betting there! :D