4/22/04 AQU, KEE, EVG

[wolsons]

Gonna try Evangeline Downs for Thursday night, AQU and KEE for the daytime:

AQU:
1) #4
2) #3
4) #2
5) #1
6) #4
8) #4
9) #7

KEE:
2) #8
3) #1
5) #6
6) #1
7) #3
9) #7

EVG:
2) #4
3) #2
4) #9
6) #5
8) #6
9) #4
10) #2

Will update for late scratches tomorrow

Steve

[kenwoodallpromos]

I'm curious about the races you are skipping? I do not like stakes or straight maidens.

[wolsons]

Hey Ken,

The races I skip are ones where either my software doesn't have a large enough model yet (for the class/distance/surface) to give me meaningful information, or where the model is large enough but is picking very few winners over the last 20 races or so at the class/distance/surface at that track.

That's why i'm tending to skip turf races at AQU right now (they just started running them yesterday), or stakes races at some tracks where there haven't been many run this year so far.

Steve

[John]

KENWOODALLPROMOS

if you ever worked with any of Wolsons paper and pencil methods you would quickly see that his methods Cherry-pick. Some Short prices,but it keeps you off that long losing streak that makes you feel like you want to quit this game.

[wolsons]

Hi John,

Just to elaborate on your response to Ken: while my individual methods do skip races, depending on the system's rules and the types of races that the systems are designed for, the software product, which combines 22 of my methods, can and does come up with plays in every race - the question of course is whether you have confidence in all of those selections - that's what the Win models and other tools are there for.

What I'm doing online here during this live 500 race workout is pretty much just post the software's top pick in each race, except for those races where confidence is extremely low, due again to either data-deficient models, or grossly underperforming models.

Steve

[John]

Scratches/Changes/Overweights
Changes for 4/22/2004



Race 1
No. 2 Peacock Sally - NO Equipment Change - will race without blinkers
Race 2
Scratch No. 1 Cat On a Ridge
Race 3
Jockey Change No. 5 All American Blue - the rider will be Rafael Bejarano
Race 4
Scratch No. 6 Favorite Girl
Race 5
UPDATE
NO Trifecta Wagering

Scratch No. 2 Pink Champagne
Scratch No. 4 Boasting
Jockey Change No. 3 Pouilly Fuisse - the rider will be TBA
Race 6
Scratch No. 5 Thank the Academy
Scratch No. 7 Bluffing
Race 7
Scratch No. 2 Voladero
Scratch No. 3 Fast Train
Scratch No. 6 Langburg
Scratch No. 7 Silver Indy
Scratch No. 8 Pericles
Scratch No. 11 Elegant Fame
Race 8
Scratch No. 5 Sarava
Race 9
UPDATE
Scratch No. 11 Inaugural Address
Scratch No. 12 Halo Heaven

Jockey Change No. 10 Dynaruler - the rider will be Brice Blanc

[John]

WOOP!!! SCRATCHES ARE FOR kEENELAND

AQU

2 RACE #1

7 RACE #1A...#8

8 RACE #2

[wolsons]

Here are the final plays after late scratches - I'm not reposting EVG's plays, since they haven't changed as of now:

AQU:
1) 4
2) 3
4) 2
5) 1
6) 4
8) 4
9) 7

KEE:
2) 8
3) 1
5) 6
6) 4
7) 12
9) 7


Good luck, will post recap this evening.

Steve

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by rocajack
KENWOODALLPROMOS

if you ever worked with any of Wolsons paper and pencil methods you would quickly see that his methods Cherry-pick. Some Short prices,but it keeps you off that long losing streak that makes you feel like you want to quit this game.

Steve, or Rocajack, or Anybody:

What methods are these? Sorry, but I don't recall seeing them or hearing of them. What are they called, and where is more info about them available? Thanks in advance.

Mike

[headhawg]

kingfin,

Here is a link to two of wolsons methods:

http://www.itsdata.com/books.php

Maybe Steve still has some available.

HH

[Secretariat]

This is his software link.

http://www.poweronlinesoftware.com

[Hosshead]

Steve,

If the sw has 22 methods, then different methods pick different horses in the same race. You said that you were pretty much using the sw's top pick in each race. But which of the 22 method's? Would a person who just bought this sw be coming up with the same pick's as the person who invented the sw, and knows All the nuances of it?
I went to the website for V5.0 and it looked interesting, especially with the profit you have been able to show so far here, but wondered, with so many methods, the sw must come up with several horses in each race, so which one to use? After all, the winner of most races usually fits SOME angle or method. Is there a button for: Just show me the win bet that will show a profit in the long run?

[wolsons]

Hosshead,

There are 22 different methods, but the top picks that I refer to are Consensus picks - what the software does is 1) determine which horses each of the applicable methods is picking, then 2) after determining an Impact Value for each of my methods in todays race scenario (track, surface, class, and distance), creates an overall rating for each horse - these ratings are then translated into an odds line.

Basically, the software doesn't just look at which system is picking which horse, but also determines which systems have been successful in this race scenario in the past, and weights them accordingly.

Hope this explanation helps!

Steve

[wolsons]

Not a pleasant day, but EVG did cut the pain a little:

AQU:
1) #4 3rd
2) #3 WON $3.80
4) #2 out
5) #1 WON $3.50
6) #4 out
8) #4 out
9) #7 out

KEE:
2) #8 2nd
3) #1 3rd
5) #6 out
6) #4 3rd
7) #12 WON $5.40
9) #7 3rd

EVG:
2) #4 WON $7.20
3) #2 2nd
4) #9 2nd
6) #5 out
8) #6 out
9) #4 WON $13.00
10) #2 out

All together 20 plays - 5 win, bet $40, ret'd $32.90, loss -$7.10

Overall, 215 plays - 76 win (35%), bet $430 - ret $535.30 - proft +$105.30 (24% ROI)

Will post again in the morning.

Steve

[John]

Steve, So you are saying that you look at your Morning line and if the your favorite morning line is a model horse for that race /track. Then you select that horse.

Please stand to correct me if I am wrong.

Also you have the "exotic machine method" how does that come in to play.

John

[wolsons]

Hey John,

Basically, that sums it up. I look at the top Consensus pick, and if Black Box and/or Dynamanual supports it, thats my play during this online test. If it's not supported by either one, but the 2nd Consensus pick is, then the 2nd pick is my play. I'm trying to do this online workout in as automatic a fashion as possible, to show what any user could achieve without getting into the fancier and more comprehensive analysis techniques that are also available. And, obviously, in the real world, I am not playing the heavy favorites that many of my picks invariably will be - I am a value player as much as the next guy!

The Exotic Machine is one of the 22 methods modeled by the software (and is surprisingly powerful as a winner-selector in many situations) - it is simply being modeled as a winner-predictor, same as the others, in my workout. The program separately models its exacta and trifecta performance, as well as the Consensus exacta and trifecta performances.

Steve

[John]

EXCELLENT ANSWER STEVE,

THERE ARE MANY WAYS YOUR SW CAN PREDICT OR PROJECT A POTENTIAL WINNER. THAT'S GOOD.THE USER WILL EVENTUALLY FIND THE BEST WAY FOR HIM/HER.

I MENTION THE "EXOTIC MACHINE" KNOWING THAT I AND MANY ON THIS BOARD ARE EXOTIC PLAYERS. PERSONALLY I FEEL THAT THE BEST BET IN RACING IS THE PICK-3.THE PAYOFF USUALLY EXCEED A PARLAY BET ON THE THREE WINNERS MOST OF THE TIME. I RATHER HIT ONE GOOD EXOTIC IN THREE DAYS THAN THREE SMALL PAYOFF A DAY....THAT IS JUST MY OPINION.....I HAVE THE EXOTIC MACHINE PAPER VERSION AND IT HAS IT SHARE OF HITS.WHAT YOU SET OUT TO DO WITH
EXOTIC MACHINE WAS TO CREATE A FRAMEWORK FOR PLAYING THE EXOTICS SPECIFICALLY THE EXACTA AND TRIFECTA. I THINK YOU ACHIEVED THAT GOAL.WITH ME ANYWAY.

STEVE, YOUR HONESTY IS SO APPRECIATED BY MOST OF US.KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK AND AS SOON AS THESE TRACKS DRY OUT YOUR ROI WILL GO UP AGAIN.

John

[wolsons]

Hey John,

Turns out I posted the cold late Pick-3 at AQU today, paid $337.50; shows the value in Pick-3's - 3 horse win parlay ($6.00, $9.40, and $18.60) would have netted $262.26; the Pick-3 paid a 29% bonus!

Steve

[John]

STEVE.

There you go my Man, Honesty is the best policy.

John

[wolsons]

Decided to do EVG again tonight, here we go:

EVG:
1) #5
2) #2
3) #2
4) #2
5) #7
6) #1
7) #8
10) #10

Will post a total recap for the day late tonight.

Steve