A New York State of Mind-Belmont Day pedigree plays.

[turninforhome10]

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Belmont Day 2014
Elmont Ny-Sat Jun 7th.
The adrenaline will flow on Sat for even the casual fan. NYRA has assembled an All-Star cast for a festival of some of racing's biggest name's. A program that reminds me of attending the early Monster's of Rock festivals in the early 90's. Today, wagering on horses is about as close as I get to "bangin my head" but I still sometimes loose my voice from cheering my 12-1 shot home in a late pick 3.
The storylines run so deep highlighted by a chance for DAP Racing and Art Sherman to mine the elusive triple crown jewel that lies somewhere on a very intimidating island for from their west coast port, in a mile and half oval that foiled all those except the immortals.
In this thread we will look at the influence of the immortals that exist in the pedigrees of the participants on NY biggest day of racing in my memory.
The three criteria that will be scrutinized will be
1) Quality of pedigree in general
2)Pedigree for Surface/Distance
3) Owner- trainer fit-(i.e. a cull,claim or cheap sale price)
Our goal will be to try and assemble a selection card to create Win, Daily Double, Pick-3,4.5 and maybe an elusive Pick-6.

Our Bankroll, a reasonable $400. Today, we will "Let It Ride". Each Race will be posted as I finish it with a little bit video it along. Let get this started.

bRQILBqq-lY

[The Spaniard]

FRIDAY PROLOGUE

R10: Belmont Park Gold Cup Invitational (2 miles turf)

:7: AULD ALLIANCE is by Montjeu, a great stamina source, winner of the French and Irish Derby, Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (all three over 1 mile and 1/2), and also winner of the Ascot Gold Cup (gr.1, 2 miles and 4/8)

AULD ALLINCE's mother is a 10f-turf winner, and outerine sixter of Goland, winner of the King George Stakes de Ascot (gr.1, 1mile and 1/2), and runner up in the English and Irish Derby. He also won the classic 2000 Guineas in Newmarket.

AULD ALLIANCE's mother is by big stamina source Generous, a winner of the English and Irish Derby, plus the King George Stakes.

This is a pedegree for 2 miles+ on turf and it looks like they have brought this filly to America thinking in this rich marathon. Her actual British rating is more than 10 pounds away from a listed stakes level like this race, but she had a good debut in the USA, she's got the help of Lasix, a top trainer and the leading jockey, and in case the race unfolds with an honest pace (?) her chances will increase.

A must for exactas and trifectas

[nellanod]

THANKS FOR THE GREAT INFO. YOU ARE THE MAN. :)

[pandy]

I didn't pick him to win but Commissioner has a superb pedigree for the Belmont stakes. He has four Belmont stakes winners,sire A P Andy, grandsire Touch Gold, grandsire Seattle Slew, and Secretariat, in his bloodlines.

[turninforhome10]

Let me first say this. Handicapping this card on pedigree alone is a tough call.
These are some of the best bred horses to be put together on one card since the Breeders Cup.

Let's try and find some winners.

First Race- 3up N1x
:7: Forever Thing. 1 million for this guy. Was trying to make noise last year only to go on the shelf after Long Branch. Watch the head of the Long Branch and you might see why. Ironically he has a 1/2 brother named Marvelous Monkey. From Family of Shuvee. I can't see the price tag but Pletcher would have some egg on his face if this one does run well on the big stage.
:8: Wabbajack- Loves this distance on this track. Prepped for this very well.
Carries a double of Gay Hostess-Dam of Majestic Prince. Sea Bird on the bottom of Midnight Lute and Cohoes on the tail female line say this guy is made for going long.
:6: Catholic Cowboy-Been in for a tag and is finally putting thing together.
Family of Wild Again. Two nice works and second out for Zito who loves this day in NY.
Players for exotics.
:1: Away Game- Last race was prep for today. 1/2 to Wilkinson MGSW-turf. Could slip up inside for a piece.
:4: Lieutenant Seany O- This is what Jacobsen does best. Short layoff. Horse was rank early last race while being taught to rate and today maybe the final lesson.
:9: Jimmy Connors- Would be good to watch this guy to get a line on Misconnected in the next race.2nd dam is Borodislew and this guy was bred to go long on dirt from the bottom. His sire suggests precocity which he had as 2yo. His form is good but no works is kind of scary. The post should be preferred for him to come late. Blinkers on and sheds 8lbs for Victor.
Throwouts-
:5: Cap the Moment-A protected horse for owner-breeder, should run for a tag. At least they got a ticket for today.
:2: Bernardo-Adds 10lbs from dismal last race and 2lbs from his NY bred tag allowance. Homebred outclassed.
:3: Spartiatis- Another homebred. 1/2 to MGSP Brother Nick who loved going long on the turf. This guy had his shot and dirt does not help his staying power.
The Plays for win
:6: :7: :8:
Exotics
:1: :4:
Throwouts
:2: :3: :5:
On to race 2
Today is more about form, connections and intent than pedigrees, so analysis is on the same page. I hope :)

[turninforhome10]

Race 2
Will use the selections as my software has picked it for the rest of today's analysis for a template.

PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER
5 MISCONNECT 4.0 CASTELLANO J. PLETCHER T. A.
4 KID CRUZ 2.5 ORTIZ JR. I. RICE L.
1 LIFE IN SHAMBLES 4.0 ROSARIO J. CLEMENT C.
8 PASS THE COFFEE 12.0 VELASQUEZ C. H. ZITO N. P.
7 LEGEND 3.0 SAEZ L. BOND H. J.
2 SOUPER LUCKY 15.0 ORTIZ J. L. ALBERTRANI T.
3 EFFINEX 20.0 MONTANEZ R. SMITH D. J.
6 NO SURRENDER 8.0 BRAVO J. PLETCHER T. A.
9 HOWL 30.0 ALVARADO J. BARRERA III O. S.

:5: Misconnect- Looks to go long for first time after 7furs last. I really don't feel that going long is going to be this guys deal. With Plugged Nickel and Drone on the bottom, I say sprinter. Can his class carry him? Goes to the deep end of the pool and the win is risky move.
:4: Kid Cruz- Sorry folks, I am loosing all those animals from the Tesio. A big close against a lesser bunch then drubbed in the Preakness. No speed. No check today at Big Sandy.
:1: Life In Shambles- Watched him working with Tonalist and was in a double nelson to not run by. Could be early leader with Rosario sticking and the one hole. Homebred for Clement who looks to move forward.
:8: Pass The Coffee-Overmatched? Looks like Zito regrouped after a good 3rd going a one turn mile. Bargain 10k yearling has to move up in class and don't see it today.
:7: Legend- Steps up in class after maiden win, but this guy was well meant from beginning. 250k for Tiznow from stakes winning mare. Thinking Belmont dirt is preferred surface. Nice works a great blowout. Like this horse even though maiden moving up.
:2: Souper Lucky-Great connections and another family member of Borodislew. Can't bet a FLA state bred maiden winner here.
:3: Effinex- Crushed him the day he won his N1x and was rewarded handsomely. Has been dismal ever since. Connections are pushing to hard and horse will probably be running for tag before the SPA. Lost the n1x and his best friend.
:6: No Surrender- Very nice family going back to Blue Larkspur. Gets his chance to shine after winning back to back. Needs lead and that could be shortcoming. Take him off the pace maybe and look for a stalking trip.
:9: Howl- Cull from Claibourne and moves up in class after same trip last. Pass

Players for Win
:5: :7: :1:
For exotics-
:4: :6: :8:
Throwouts
:2: :3: :9:

From Race 1
DD :6: :7: :8: / :1: :5: :7: 9 dollars

[turninforhome10]

Race 3
Just going to post my plays as this is getting longwinded
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
7 BIGGER IS BETTOR 30.0 ARROYO A. S. UBILLO R. A.
8 NORUMBEGA 6.0 ROSARIO J. MCGAUGHEY III C. R
4 CAT BURGLAR 2.5 NAPRAVNIK R. BAFFERT B.
3 MICROMANAGE 3.5 CASTELLANO J. PLETCHER T. A.
6 GOLDEN SOUL 15.0 BRIDGMOHAN S. STEWART D.
2 GROUND TRANSPORT 3.0 VELAZQUEZ J. R. STIDHAM M.
5 EVER RIDER 5.0 ESPINOZA V. MUNOZ M. C.
1 ERIUGENA 10.0 SMITH M. E. MAKER M. J.

The fact that the computer is picking the big longshot on top is telling me that this race is wide open.
The players for win
:1: :4: :6: :8:
Exotics
:3: :2: :7:
Throwouts
:5:
The Pick 3 play would be
Race 1 :6: :7: :8:
Race 2 :1: :5: :7:
Race 3 :1: :4: :6: :8: 36 dollar play.
DD Race 2 :1: :5: :7: / :1: :4: :6: :8: 12 dollars

After this race, when the crowd starts to build, I will be paddock watching to see how the horses are handling the crowd.

[turninforhome10]

Scratches and changes
http://www.nyra.com/belmont/changes/
Throw out the :7: Race 3

[turninforhome10]

Post Parade Race1
:4: Looks sharp. Cheater blinkers
:6: Looks strong
:7: Looks fit, maybe a little warm
:8: Looks very nice
:5: looks pensive
:9: Looks "sprinty"
:2: Nothing remarkable
:1: On toes
:3: Just Ok

:8: is galloping nice along with the :1:

Like the :8: :4: :1: on looks

Alive in the double and P-3 and had the exacta on looks. Bet the tri with the :1: so chomping a little longer stretch. Will take the exacta and move on
Winner 37.50

[turninforhome10]

Race2 Post Parade
Always family calling when you are a player on a day like today, and missed the PP.
:7: Looks sharp fit and on toes. Rank?
:1: Big scopey horse
:2: Over the bit
:3: A little soft
:4: Not focused
:5: Small looks sharp
:6: Getting worked up
Like the :1: :5: :7:

Looks like the :4: did not have to focus to beat this bunch. When the :9: went with the :1:, Kid Cruz was licking his chops. Nice horse. No dice for me
Out of the dd and pick 3. Bad Play against

[turninforhome10]

Race 3
Although the :4: looks short on pedigree stamina, it more than made up on for quality. Bloodlines are impeccable for big names. http://www.pedigreequery.com/cat+burglar5
:4: could be a monster/
:4: / :3: :6: :8:
and flip :8: :3: :6: / :4:

[turninforhome10]

Race 3
Although the :4: looks short on pedigree stamina, it more than made up on for quality. Bloodlines are impeccable for big names. http://www.pedigreequery.com/cat+burglar5
:4: could be a monster/
:4: / :3: :6: :8:
and flip :8: :3: :6: / :4:
Ran gamely to rebreak but Micromanage move got 2nd. Big number for the win on the :8: and kicking myself for loosing the Cruz in the 2nd. Down 6
How about a speed map for the 4th. U1C- U5C are points of call. UPE is pace energy and V2-3 is turn loss VSF is ground loss for the stretch. Computer likes the :9:

[turninforhome10]

On looks for the 4th.
:10: Looks anxious
:1: Looks Dull
:2: High head carriage
:5: Looks very sharp
:6: Sharp, Rider takes a deep look at wheels?
:11: Has the Aga Khan mark of quality on his neck. Birthmark. Galloping strong.
:4: Smaller sort not much to look at
:9: Moving well
:8: Little Warm?

:9: :11: / :9: :11: :4: :6: :8: exacta

[turninforhome10]

I give. Time to get to work. Enjoy the rest of your day.