Espinoza's winning percentage at Belmont

[porchy44]

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/more-sports/chrome-rider-worried-belmont-record-article-1.1813629


As a general rule, Usually hard to take 1/2 odds on a 3% winning rider at a track.

[SecretAgentMan]

The horse is racing, the jockey only has to hold on & push the button at the right time coming down the stretch.

Stewart Elliot almost won the triple crown........Jose Santos had a shot at it.

I know what you're talking about when you say about his win % at Belmont but that doesn't worry me not one bit.

[aaron]

Talk about a meaningless statistic.

[porchy44]

The horse is racing, the jockey only has to hold on & push the button at the right time coming down the stretch.

Stewart Elliot almost won the triple crown........Jose Santos had a shot at it.


Now your arguing my point

[porchy44]

Talk about a meaningless statistic.


Maybe the statistics guys can chime in and say if 2 for 67 is a large enough sample size to have any meaning.

[Rex Phinney]

Maybe the statistics guys can chime in and say if 2 for 67 is a large enough sample size to have any meaning.

He has been here before, in the very same position. If I'm an owner the fact that the rider has dealt with the build up and the pressure that leads to the race once already, far exceeds what he has done at the track in a lowly 67 races.

[Dark Horse]

It matters because it's Belmont. Because of the wide sweeping turns the jockey can't time his ride as he would at other tracks. Obviously, timing is a big ingredient in winning a race. It's why many speeds come up short at the wire, and why many closers run out of track. In the end it may not matter, because the way to beat the stalking Chrome, as shown in the Preakness (...), is to attack too early on his outside. Espinoza will have to respond to that kind of an attack to keep Chrome's right eye clear. Throw in a relatively fast pace, and the added distance, and the door is open for the closers.

[SecretAgentMan]

Maybe the statistics guys can chime in and say if 2 for 67 is a large enough sample size to have any meaning.


So Espinoza wins his 3rd lifetime race at Belmont on the 3rd leg of the triple crown? You can't make up stories like this........what a movie Chrome will be about after he wins it all........

On the other hand, he's riding several races before entering the historic race so my great idea is out the window, lol!

[Frost king]

Big Sandy will continue to swallow him up.

[nijinski]

This is where it belongs on Letterman now!

[Valuist]

He has been here before, in the very same position. If I'm an owner the fact that the rider has dealt with the build up and the pressure that leads to the race once already, far exceeds what he has done at the track in a lowly 67 races.

Yes, but what happened? He got away terribly from the gate and was never a factor.

[SecretAgentMan]

Yes, but what happened? He got away terribly from the gate and was never a factor.


Can't compare Chrome to War Emblem. I said Chrome was better than War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones & Big Brown before the derby & now we will see his greatness on Saturday.

Espinoza said that War Emblem was one dimensional as we all could see but Chrome can run from where ever he wants. The gate practicing has been superb this week for Chrome & he's just getting better & better at everything he does, a very professional horse.

[Robert Fischer]

Espinoza is a competent jockey, and he's ridden ~70 races at Belmont.

Those two facts trump any win% statistics by a huge margin.

If he was riding Tonalist or General a Rod (aka a horse that needs a smart ride to contend), he would be a bigger factor. His job here is just to break cleanly and guide California Chrome (a heavy fav w/ great tactical speed and a good post) all the way to mid-stretch and then get him home. A bug boy can do that.
This doesn't mean that if California Chrome extends his lead on the turn and then quits that people will not blame the jockey. They will.

[Stillriledup]

Espinoza is a competent jockey, and he's ridden ~70 races at Belmont.

Those two facts trump any win% statistics by a huge margin.

If he was riding Tonalist or General a Rod (aka a horse that needs a smart ride to contend), he would be a bigger factor. His job here is just to break cleanly and guide California Chrome (a heavy fav w/ great tactical speed and a good post) all the way to mid-stretch and then get him home. A bug boy can do that.
This doesn't mean that if California Chrome extends his lead on the turn and then quits that people will not blame the jockey. They will.

He's competent, but he's not an elite rider in the game today, far from it.

Also, he's got a little "kent" inside him, so if CC is beat with 70 yards to go, this isnt the guy you want to be on his belly to save 3rd or 4th, this is the guy who will wrap up in a heartbeat.

[plainolebill]

I generally don't use any kind of negative stat for connections if a horse figures on top.

[SandyLoam]

Will the other jockeys go after Espinoza and Chrome to get them beat as much as get themselves the win?

[bks]

Espinoza isn't just "competent." While he's not one of the best riders in the US, he was one of them, for a significant period of time too. He was at the top of perhaps the deepest jockey colony ever assembled during the late 90s and early 2000s.

[ArlJim78]

Two more wins for Victor at Belmont, one yesterday and one today.

[Frost king]

Wow! Two more wins both sprints, one on grass, and 1-2 shot on the dirt at 6F. How relevant is that?

[ArlJim78]

no less relevant than his 2-67 record before yesterday.

[Rex Phinney]

Does anyone have Espinoza's record at pimlico? I'm just curious how it compares?

It's no secret jocks are at a disadvantage racing outside their home tracks. This will make it all the more apparent how much better chrome is if he wins.

[SecretAgentMan]

Espinoza will ride in the 3rd race which is a 1 1/2 mile race which is an excellent prep to get the feel for the track before the big race.......

[Stillriledup]

Does anyone have Espinoza's record at pimlico? I'm just curious how it compares?

It's no secret jocks are at a disadvantage racing outside their home tracks. This will make it all the more apparent how much better chrome is if he wins.

Belmont is its own animal.

[Valuist]

Does anyone have Espinoza's record at pimlico? I'm just curious how it compares?

It's no secret jocks are at a disadvantage racing outside their home tracks. This will make it all the more apparent how much better chrome is if he wins.

Other than the Preakness, he likely has no reason to go there, so the sample size is small. We do know he's won the Preakness twice.

Have to think of those 67 mounts before Thursday that quite a few of them were well bet; if he's going to fly cross country for a stakes mount, they had to be at least somewhat well meant.

[Rex Phinney]

Belmont is its own animal.


Ok well of the jocks in this field it isn't exactly an overwhelming expanse of Belmont knowledge, just a few years ago, Rosario was riding in California and shitting the bed in ever big race he rode.

I guess Johnny V is one that worries me, he and Mike Smith are the ones I think have a significant advantage and both are on mounts with only an outside chance.

Guys like Rajiv and Rosario have just never shown me they are big time Jockeys. They win when they are supposed to, but they don't make horses 5-10 lengths better.

Espinoza has ridden this race before, he has studied it and been in the pressure cooker of the triple crown before, he won't get chrome beaten tomorrow.

[Rex Phinney]

Other than the Preakness, he likely has no reason to go there, so the sample size is small. We do know he's won the Preakness twice.

Have to think of those 67 mounts before Thursday that quite a few of them were well bet; if he's going to fly cross country for a stakes mount, they had to be at least somewhat well meant.


So you don't have the pimlico numbers then?

My point was to see how his pimlico numbers compare to 2 for 67, because it didn't matter in the Preakness. Being on the best horse is more important than the jockeys record.

[Clocker]

I would think that a low percentage would be expected. He comes in to ride a shipper in a big race and picks up a couple of mounts. He doesn't know those horses or their connections, and is riding against horses with their usual jockeys.

Anyone know the Belmont records of the other 10 riders? How many of them are Belmont jocks and how many are shippers?

I just looked up the jockey standings at Belmont for this meet. Espinoza is in the top 30 with a 50% win rate (2 for 4). That is probably statistically insignificant also. :p