Ben Ali and Evening Attire

[cj]

Very good Thursday race at Keeneland, including the return of Sarava...again.

Looking at the PPs, I've never, EVER, seen a horse as consistent figure wise as Evening Attire has been over his last 10 races!


2 EVENING ATTIRE 6yo Ky 9-5 PS

Aqu 04/03/2004 9.0 2/ 5 my ExlsrBCH G3 Game finish outside 107 109 104 109| 109
Lrl 02/14/2004 9.0 2/ 8 fst JCampbellH150k Shut off roughed str 104 110 100 106| 106
Aqui 01/17/2004 8.5 4/ 8 fst AquH G3 Game finish outside 116 109 105 109| 110
Aqui 12/13/2003 9.5 2/ 6 fst QeensCoH G3 Rallied 4 wide 96 110 95 108| 106
CD 11/28/2003 9.0 7/14 sly ClarkH G2 4 5w drift bmp stretch 112 105 110 105| 108*
SA 10/25/2003 10.0 1/10 fst BCClasic G1 No response 118 115 99 102| 105
Bel 09/27/2003 10.0 4/ 5 fst JkyClbGC G1 Good finish outside 114 114 99 106| 108
Sar 08/25/2003 9.0 4/ 6 fst Alw 58000C Pinched back start 104 105 89 105| 105*
Sar 08/02/2003 9.0 4/ 7 fst WhitneyH G1 Game between rivals 108 113 98 110| 108
Sar 07/23/2003 9.0 2/ 6 gd Alw 58000C Came wide, drew away 105 110 100 110| 109*

[Tee]

I looked at the pp's for a short period of time & came up with....... American Style as a possible gate to wire threat?

[JustRalph]

I like Evening Attire with Congrats..........

chalk..........although American Style is interesting......I smell a fade in the stretch.........unless he improves.....this is a tough crowd to improve against. I didn't see American Styles last race, how bad did the "Hop" effect him? anybody see it? If I read the line right, he lost 4 lengths in the stretch against Allowance Company at 62500........

[Tee]

Watching the Congrat/American Style replay right now, the hop didn't bother AS one bit.

Congrats overcame quite a bit in a big win off a 6 month vacation & a new BSF top.

I hate to play Evening Attire(as the chalk) & to me Congrats might not have his best stuff tomorrow.

If it isn't American Style I would think the winner is either Jersey Giant or Midway Road. Both should improve with comeback races under their belts.

[keilan]

The Ben Ali

Evening Attire looks to be the horse to beat. If I was playing an exactor I might try and find some value with "Midway Road" a horse I posted about in last years Preakness who ran 2nd to Funny Cide at odds of 20-1. The other two horse eligible to complete the x's are Congrats and Sir Cherokee, post-time odds will determine who I'll use most heavily.

[eclecticapper]

Congrats and Sarava are both scratched; it's VERY wet here in Kentucky and the Keeneland card on the whole doesn't look terribly appealing.

[cj]

After that race, all I can say is "WOW!" I think we have another horse with superstar possibilities.

[Tee]

New stakes and track record.

[Observer]

Evening Attire may be consistent on the "numbers" .. but his tendency of getting into trouble is seemingly becoming routine .. it's been a while since he's won .. and has burned lots of money in the process .. it just seems he's either left with too much to do in the lane .. or he gets into trouble .. like when he almost went over the rail in the stretch a few starts back .. and in my opinion .. it cost him today on the first turn in the Ben Ali when he got shuffled back .. not saying anyone was going to beat Midway Road anyway, though.

[cj]

If Evening Attire gets the same usual figure today, Midway will be off the charts! I seem to recall the fastest races I've ever done were all from the Formal Road, Will's Way, Skip Away year. Curious to see where this one ranks. You just don't see a horse win by 15 in this kind of company!

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
If Evening Attire gets the same usual figure today, Midway will be off the charts! I seem to recall the fastest races I've ever done were all from the Formal Road, Will's Way, Skip Away year. Curious to see where this one ranks. You just don't see a horse win by 15 in this kind of company!

I turned on TVG 5 minutes after the race and heard them talking about the "new track record" I can't wait to see this race....

[plainolebill]

Good job by Albarado too, the front end was the place to be. I didn't think Midway Road had enough zip to get the lead from American System.

[sjk]

Ralph,

No need to wait. It is already up on the Keeneland replay page.

[Tee]

Just looking at the charts for the races before the Ben Ali & it would appear that every main track race has been won on or near the lead & the margin of victory has been fairly substantial.

Obviously there were some mud - lovin thoroughbreds out there today along with some that weren't so fond of the surface.

[Speed Figure]

His best figures have come from KEE. Big win on an off track!:rolleyes: Plus this is on a day when the avg dirt winner won by 6.5 lengths. I'm not buying it.

[Observer]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
... You just don't see a horse win by 15 in this kind of company!

This kind of company??? No doubt it was a visually impressive performance .. and the timer agreed .. and certainly it gives reason to look forward to his next start .. but I'd be careful .. First .. because it was a sloppy track .. Second .. because I certainly wouldn't classify this field as strong ...

Sure .. he easily handled Evening Attire .. but so what??? .. Evening Attire just seems to find trouble/excuses for not getting the job done .. he has now run second in his past 6 straight .. and hasn't won since 2 allowance races at Saratoga last summer .. which were sandwiched by a start in the Whitney. You have to go back to the 2002 off-the-turf Red Smith for his last stakes win .. and that followed his Saratoga BC & Jockey Club Gold Cup wins and BC Classic fourth .. clearly much better days for this gray.

As for Midway Road .. visually impressive today, yes .. but I'll wait before going overboard .. he was coming out of a dull 4th at Fair Grounds as the favorite in his return from the layoff .. which was run on a fast track .. maybe he doesn't like Fair Grounds [never won there in 3 tries] .. maybe he loved the slop today .. maybe he just really loves Keeneland [never been beaten there in 3 tries now] .. or maybe a combination of those factors. Time will tell.

[cj]

Everything you say is true, but still, this was a graded stakes race for older horses. When can anyone think of an older horse winning a Graded stake by this big of a margin? Evening Attire and Sir Cherokee are not top notch horses, and their figures show that, but they are certainly respectable. American has always been fast, this horse toyed with him. I'm sure the track had a lot to do with it, and Kee is famous for crazy biases and days, but this was a joy to watch.

[Observer]

Give me some time .. I'll try to think of some graded stakes race that turned into a lop-sided event .. maybe not by 15 lengths .. but I'll see what I can come up with (I'm thinking Waquoit's Jockey Club Gold Cup .. but I can't recall the field .. I just remember he romped in the slop when Alysheba scratched because of the surface) .. and yes .. the Ben Ali field was respectable .. but the bottom line is .. as you said .. it definitely was a joy to watch.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by sjk
Ralph,

No need to wait. It is already up on the Keeneland replay page.

Thanks.......... I checked it out.

Man...What a run for Midway Road! Very confident win. He looked Great. 1:34.89 for the mile, Wow!

I was right about American Style....faded badly. But I don't think anybody expected the race to run like that. Evening Attire I think was actually headed by Sir Cherokee, but came back. Great race to watch......and I just caught it on replay via TVG ...

[Tee]

Put a line right thru this race when it comes up in the pp's of all todays competitors's next races.

Not a true reflection of ability or lack of for that matter IMHO.

[Bubbles]

Originally posted by Observer
Give me some time .. I'll try to think of some graded stakes race that turned into a lop-sided event .. maybe not by 15 lengths .. but I'll see what I can come up with...

You needn't look back farther than last year's Preakness Stakes. Funny Cide wins it by 11 lengths. A twist of irony: Who was second?

Midway Road.

[Observer]

Good call, Bubbles .. how could I forget that one???!!!

[cj]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
... can anyone think of an older horse winning a Graded stake by this big of a margin? ...

I'm pretty sure the Preakness is still for 3yos only! ;):D

[Tee]

Closest I can recall would be Aptitude winning the JCGC by 10.

[Bubbles]

All I saw was "graded stakes' in Observer's post. Sorry if I missed the aim of the question.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
I'm pretty sure the Preakness is still for 3yos only! ;):D

reminds me of that reporter at Churchill last year. He asked Frankel (at a morning press conference no less) if he would consider running Empire Maker in the Derby next year if he doesn't get it done this year...............

[Observer]

Originally posted by Bubbles
All I saw was "graded stakes' in Observer's post. ...

Sure .. blame me!
;)

Alright, alright ... so I forgot about the "older horses" bit .. I still say Waquoit .. just haven't found who exactly he ran against .. and by how much he won .. but I know it was big.

[Tee]

BSF for Midway

123

[cj]

Some blowouts I was able to find, no luck with Waquoit.

Inisde Information (I know, she wasn't a horse), G1 BC Distaff, 13.5 lengths
Flanders (I know, she was a 2yo F), won by 21 in the Frizette
Flawlessly (another mare), G1 Beverly Hills by 9 on turf!
Heavenly Prize (female again!), won G1 Go For Wand by 11
Housebuster (3yo) wins the Jerome G2 by 13
Meadow Star (2yo F), Frizette by 14
Reraise (3yo), G2 Ky Cup Sprint by 12
Sky Beauty (Filly), G1 Go For Wand by 10.5
Landaluce (2yo F) won a G2 6f race by 21!


The best older horse win I could find was Slew O Gold by 9 3/4 in the G1 JCGC.

I'm sure you guys are right about Waquoit and Aptitude as well, just can't find the exact numbers.

70s, should have looked here first!

Alydar (3yo but beat older), by 10 in G2 Whitney and 13 in G2 Arlington Classic

Affirmed by 10 in the Strub.

Enough for now, eh?

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by teeitup
BSF for Midway

123

that might be the highest I can remember......

[PaceAdvantage]

Didn't Bertrando get a 128 or 129 in the slop once? I think this is the highest I can remember.

And we all know that Beyer said that Secretariat's Belmont stakes was a BSF in the 130s. At least I think we all know that...LOL

[Speed Figure]

Originally posted by JustRalph
that might be the highest I can remember......
Candy Ride got a 123. These are my Figures for the race.

Ben Ali S. G3 KEE
1C 2C LF SF
7 Midway Road 106 122 118 121
2 Evening Attire 90 109 109 108
6 Sir Cherokee 79 99 118 107
Race Figures 106 122 118 121

[cj]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
Didn't Bertrando get a 128 or 129 in the slop once? I think this is the highest I can remember.

And we all know that Beyer said that Secretariat's Belmont stakes was a BSF in the 130s. At least I think we all know that...LOL

I don't have the exact numbers, but Will's Way, Formal Road, and Skip Away all bettered that number at least a few times. They were around 125 and 126 a few times at least. I'm pretty sure you are right about Bertrando too.

[Bubbles]

Midway's 123 tied for the fastest recorded Beyer since Artax put up a 124 a few years ago. Not bad being second to that one, if I do say so myself...

[cj]

Pace-speed combo for Midway Road:

116-123.

I still haven't programmed in to deduct points at Keeneland, but I'm 90% sure it will be 5 Beyer points for 9f races, which would make this:

111-118

Very good performance, but maybe stong bias aided. Against top competition, probably a bet against for now.

[Valuist]

This horse should bounce like a golf ball on astroturf. The number may be legit but it was at Kee and on an off track. I agree w/PA, draw a line thru this race next time these all run back.

[Valuist]

While it appears this horse is a major bounce candidate, I was a little surprised to see Davidowitz thought he had a very solid chance to win. He liked Dynever and M.R. At what point does this horse need to be included in your P3s? He does get the rail, and he showed in last year's Preakness that he can handle the track. I won't bet him to win, but he's the kind of horse that can make you feel stupid if he breaks your Pic 3 ticket, especially if he's 5-1 or so.