Ride on Curlin

[zico20]

To me he seems a lock to hit the board behind Chrome. He is improving and he has already ran huge at Belmont. History may be on his side to run a big race. I took a look back to see which horses improved greatly from the Derby to the Preakness or have run strong in the first two legs w/o winning the Derby. I used both angles since ROC would have hit the board in the Derby if not for an idiotic ride by Borel. Here are the horses I found who have improved from the Derby to Preakness or hit the board in the first two legs and then went on to run big in the Belmont.

Pine Bluff, Skip Away, Curlin, Bet Twice, Afleet Alex, Point Given, Easy Goer, Risen Star, Free House, Tabasco Cat, Oxbow, Cryptoclearance, Chiefs Crown, Hansel, Victory Gallop.

The only clunkers I can come up with are Tanks Prospect, who broke down, Shakelford, who had clear distance limitations and never shoud have been entered in the Belmont. The only legitimate one seems to be Menifee, while there are numerous examples that support ROC running big on Saturday.

I forgot about Hard Spun, who ran well in all three races.

Any others I am leaving out who ran a clunker?

ROC second behind Chrome, that is my prediction.

[letswastemoney]

I'm not sold Ride On Curlin will be good for 12 furlongs. He loses a good rider in Rosario as well.

[SecretAgentMan]

ROC has only 2 wins, a maiden & an allowance n1x out of 11 races life time..........also, he's never put together back to back really good races from looking at his PP's........I don't think he hits the board.

He was a solid play for 2nd in the preakness since there was only 3 horses running at Baltimore from the derby.

There are several fresh horses from the derby running in Belmont. I think there are at least 4 horses that can finish ahead of ROC to get 2nd place.

[boys at tosconova]

IHe loses a good rider in Rosario as well.


this speaks volumes as to how good tonalist might be

[SecretAgentMan]

this speaks volumes as to how good tonalist might be


ROC has had 6 different jockeys in his past 9 races so losing Rosario doesn't mean anything. Rosario is getting on Tonalist, who he's ridden twice out of Tonalist's 4 life time starts. Rosario knows he has a better shot with him.

Rosario is a good jockey & will shorten Tonalist's odds.........

[depalma113]

ROC has only 2 wins, a maiden & an allowance n1x out of 11 races life time..........also, he's never put together back to back really good races from looking at his PP's........I don't think he hits the board.

He was a solid play for 2nd in the preakness since there was only 3 horses running at Baltimore from the derby.

There are several fresh horses from the derby running in Belmont. I think there are at least 4 horses that can finish ahead of ROC to get 2nd place.


He just put back to back good races. With a better ride, he would have finished third in the Derby.

[depalma113]

this speaks volumes as to how good tonalist might be

No, it speaks to how many horses one barn has over another.

Considering Clement was pissed he jumped ship on the horse once already, this is nothing but a business decision.

Besides, ROC is getting a jockey that has won the race twice.

[precocity]

this speaks volumes as to how good tonalist might be
tonalist :D might be last! roc will hit the board!

[boys at tosconova]

No, it speaks to how many horses one barn has over another.

Considering Clement was pissed he jumped ship on the horse once already, this is nothing but a business decision.

Besides, ROC is getting a jockey that has won the race twice.

poppycock...rosario selected tonalist beacuse he believes the horse has a better chance than ROC. just like how he chose ROC in the preakness over general arod......which was laughable as itended up being a 2 horse race

ROC isn't a clear 2nd/3rd choice in this race..he's one of 5 that can hit the board...losing rosario doesn't help...better competition doesn't help...anyone should not be surprised if the horse finishes 4th/5th

[precocity]

poppycock...rosario selected tonalist beacuse he believes the horse has a better chance than ROC. just like how he chose ROC in the preakness over general arod......which was laughable as itended up being a 2 horse race

ROC isn't a clear 2nd/3rd choice in this race..he's one of 5 that can hit the board
Rosario is a good jockey but who cares who he choses what colt to run on? so now he has a crystal ball on winning the Belmont! :sleeping:

[depalma113]

poppycock...rosario selected tonalist beacuse he believes the horse has a better chance than ROC. just like how he chose ROC in the preakness over general arod

Rosario committed to Ride on Curlin when the connections of General a Rod were going to pass on the Preakness.

This is a business decision by a rider and his agent to go with a barn that has a ton of horses in New York vs. a barn that has four horses at Churchill. This is not about which horse has the better chance to win. You are reading way to much into it.

[boys at tosconova]

This is not about which horse has the better chance to win. You are reading way to much into it.

bs...you can spin it anyway you want. but if you want to say said jockeys choice doesn't always workout vs the other mount, then yeah,i would agree..but he still picked a over b..and it is a million dollar race,..if you want to ignore it and say that it's not a big deal , you're the one making the mistake.

[jettroofer]

I'm not sold Ride On Curlin will be good for 12 furlongs. He loses a good rider in Rosario as well.

Why? His dad did it and his bro rolled the field last year in the Belmont. I understand Curlin got 2nd to Rags to Riches but was dueling in the loss.

I like this colt. I loved his dad and I love Palice Malice. Partly because the 12-1 last year led to my biggest cash prior to this years derby super. He is gritty. I understand those who may think he is spent after the derby and Preakness but he is handling the track well in training and looks to be in good form. I think he is a strong exotics contender.

[HPFridays]

No, it speaks to how many horses one barn has over another.

Considering Clement was pissed he jumped ship on the horse once already, this is nothing but a business decision.

Besides, ROC is getting a jockey that has won the race twice.

Ron Anderson on At The Races basically said exactly what you wrote. He thought both horses were about equal but they made their decision on the # of mounts the Clement barn gives him and Rosario.

[nijinski]

poppycock...rosario selected tonalist beacuse he believes the horse has a better chance than ROC. just like how he chose ROC in the preakness over general arod......which was laughable as itended up being a 2 horse race

ROC isn't a clear 2nd/3rd choice in this race..he's one of 5 that can hit the board...losing rosario doesn't help...better competition doesn't help...anyone should not be surprised if the horse finishes 4th/5th

I totally agree .

[BlueChip@DRF]

Too bad Irad doesn't have a mount.

[Mr G]

I'm not sold Ride On Curlin will be good for 12 furlongs. He loses a good rider in Rosario as well.

But wouldn't Johnny V riding ROC at Belmont be a Plus over Rosario?

[Mr G]

Too bad Irad doesn't have a mount.

I agree..how good is Jose?

I like Samraat but do not know about the distance ?

[depalma113]

bs...you can spin it anyway you want. but if you want to say said jockeys choice doesn't always workout vs the other mount, then yeah,i would agree..but he still picked a over b..and it is a million dollar race,..if you want to ignore it and say that it's not a big deal , you're the one making the mistake.

Rosario's agent said on Steve Byk's show today exactly what I told you, it was 100% a business decision. Thanks for playing.

[boys at tosconova]

Rosario's agent said on Steve Byk's show today exactly what I told you, it was 100% a business decision. Thanks for playing.


lol yes,.".it was a business decision"...it has nothing to to do with who the jockey perceived to be a better horse with the better chance of winning.

rosario wouldn't have left if he thought roc was better..end of discussion

[Redboard]

To me he seems a lock to hit the board behind Chrome. He is improving and he has already ran huge at Belmont. History may be on his side to run a big race. I took a look back to see which horses improved greatly from the Derby to the Preakness or have run strong in the first two legs w/o winning the Derby. I used both angles since ROC would have hit the board in the Derby if not for an idiotic ride by Borel. Here are the horses I found who have improved from the Derby to Preakness or hit the board in the first two legs and then went on to run big in the Belmont.

Pine Bluff, Skip Away, Curlin, Bet Twice, Afleet Alex, Point Given, Easy Goer, Risen Star, Free House, Tabasco Cat, Oxbow, Cryptoclearance, Chiefs Crown, Hansel, Victory Gallop.

The only clunkers I can come up with are Tanks Prospect, who broke down, Shakelford, who had clear distance limitations and never shoud have been entered in the Belmont. The only legitimate one seems to be Menifee, while there are numerous examples that support ROC running big on Saturday.

I forgot about Hard Spun, who ran well in all three races.

Any others I am leaving out who ran a clunker?

ROC second behind Chrome, that is my prediction.


ROC is a toss for me. I'm handicapping this race like I do every other race and I always toss closers stretching out, of course, I do get beat with that angle sometimes, but I find it works more often than not. ROC is a closer and most of those you mentioned were/are not closers. Add that to the fact that he's running three races in five weeks, you seem to think this is an advantage but I just think it takes more out of a closer than it does a speed horse because they are expending a burst of energy at the end of the race when they are most tired, therefore need more rest to recuperate. Jazil/Birdstone, and I’m sure others, did close from far back to win the Belmont but they benefited from a hot pace and both skipped the Preakness.
Now that I said that he’ll probably win by daylight, but , that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

[depalma113]

lol yes,.".it was a business decision"...it has nothing to to do with who the jockey perceived to be a better horse with the better chance of winning.

rosario wouldn't have left if he thought roc was better..end of discussion

So you are accusing his agent of lying on a national radio show? Nice.

[pandy]

ROC is a toss for me. I'm handicapping this race like I do every other race and I always toss closers stretching out, of course, I do get beat with that angle sometimes, but I find it works more often than not. ROC is a closer and most of those you mentioned were/are not closers. Add that to the fact that he's running three races in five weeks, you seem to think this is an advantage but I just think it takes more out of a closer than it does a speed horse because they are expending a burst of energy at the end of the race when they are most tired, therefore need more rest to recuperate. Jazil/Birdstone, and I’m sure others, did close from far back to win the Belmont but they benefited from a hot pace and both skipped the Preakness.
Now that I said that he’ll probably win by daylight, but , that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

Ride On Curlin is not a closer. Yes, they have raced him from off the pace in his last three races, but he could easily take the lead if they want him to. He won his debut at 5.5 furlongs. He earned huge pace figures winning NW1 at 6f. He set the pace very wide from post 9 going 8.5f in the Southwest. He dueled for the lead in the GR2 Rebel. Besides Samraat, Ride On Curlin is actually the only other horse in the race that has EVER had the lead in a sprint. He has plenty of speed. And, believe me, Johnny V. knows it. He'll be going over this race carefully with Cordero, and they'll consider the possibility of going to the lead.

[sammy the sage]

So you are accusing his agent of lying on a national radio show? Nice.

wouldn't be THE first time an agent lied...probably NOT the last either.. :lol:

[boys at tosconova]

regardless of rosario leaving. ROC got a nice post where he should be able to get a ground saving trip. this horse can use his speed anytime he wants to, even though they don't want him to use it. i could envision a wicked strong type of trip like the wood. i don't know if he'll fire though, or as good as the horses that beat him in the derby..and tonalist

like i said before, i don't think the horse can win, and the competiton is stronger than the preakness...

i guess him, wicked, and curve will be similar in odds, and be perceived equal, at least in the exotics

[Redboard]

hmmmm. He’s not a closer but he ran like a closer in the last three races? My point is he ran huge pace figures in the last furlong of those races and therefore needs more than three weeks rest IMO. And there’s a reason why the last eight Belmont winners skipped the Preakness. BTW I like closers shortening up, if the Belmont were 8f or under, that’s a horse of a different color.