Can Smarty Jones get 10 Furlongs

[witchdoctor]

http://www.reines-de-course.com/triple_crown_2004.htm

[WINMANWIN]

With the addition of 1st time lasix for the derby, He certainly will be on my tickets ;)

[Dan Montilion]

He'll get 10 furlongs. Not sure how long it will take him though.

Dan Montilion

[Bubbles]

There are a lot of horses this year that may not get 10 panels in the Derby, or even 1 3/16-miles in the Preakness. Horses like Master David, Quinton's Gold Rush, Lion Heart, and Preachinatthebar are all very nice steeds, but will, in my opinion, have trouble with the distances of the Triple Crown. Watch the winner's circle on the first Saturday in May. If a horse wins at single-digits, with the rare exceptions of The Cliff's Edge, Smarty, and Tapit, I will be surprised.

I'm currently looking at horses like Imperialism, Castledale, and Pollard's Vision. All three of these will be at decent odds come Derby Day, and depending on the posts, they may warrant the money of the average handicapper. Granted, once the PP's come out, I'll probably change my tune, but for now, I'm singing that little song.

[andicap]

Originally posted by Bubbles
There are a lot of horses this year that may not get 10 panels in the Derby, or even 1 3/16-miles in the Preakness. Horses like Master David, Quinton's Gold Rush, Lion Heart, and Preachinatthebar are all very nice steeds, but will, in my opinion, have trouble with the distances of the Triple Crown. Watch the winner's circle on the first Saturday in May. If a horse wins at single-digits, with the rare exceptions of The Cliff's Edge, Smarty, and Tapit, I will be surprised.

I'm currently looking at horses like Imperialism, Castledale, and Pollard's Vision. All three of these will be at decent odds come Derby Day, and depending on the posts, they may warrant the money of the average handicapper. Granted, once the PP's come out, I'll probably change my tune, but for now, I'm singing that little song.

Pollard's Vision. Front-runner, but wasn't his pace time in the Illinois Derby rather pedestrian? War Emblem had a blazing pace time and entered a Derby with not much early speed. (No, I didn't win.) I'm skeptical.

[cj]

My figures:

War Emblem: 108 114
Pollard's Vision: 105 107

I truly believe the crop is weaker this year, I can't wait to get the PPs!

[WINMANWIN]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
My figures:

War Emblem: 108 114
Pollard's Vision: 105 107

I truly believe the crop is weaker this year, I can't wait to get the PPs!

What up C.J. Who needs pp's, I know these steeds bY heart already:eek: Cliff's Edge is a must use, 2 for 2 on the Churchill strip, Shane Sellers makes a nice story as the semi retired country western singer WINS DERBY !! ;)

[Bubbles]

Originally posted by WINMANWIN
Shane Sellers makes a nice story as the semi retired country western singer WINS DERBY !! ;)

Film at 11...:) :D ;)

[linrom1]

Smarty Jones should bypass the KD and take a shot at the Preakness. This is last years' Balto Star. Every year we get these precocious speedballs sired by the likes of Carson City , Gltterman, In Excess etc. And as usual some breeding experts tell us that this year is different because of some obscure tail female families stamina influence in the x-X gerneration.-well good for them, I am avoiding all these types.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by linrom1
Smarty Jones should bypass the KD and take a shot at the Preakness. This is last years' Balto Star. Every year we get these precocious speedballs sired by the likes of Carson City , Gltterman, In Excess etc. And as usual some breeding experts tell us that this year is different because of some obscure tail female families stamina influence in the x-X gerneration.-well good for them, I am avoiding all these types.

What? Come...on? First of all Balto ran in 2001, and I am sure that the connections of Smarty would be happy to have a horse that makes two million dollars in 3 years. That is what Balto has done. And he may still run a couple years since he is a gelding.

I think Smarty deserves to be there more than some others. He might not win it......but he sure has shown heart and has yet to "not show up" which is more than you can say for some others that will be running.

[Pace Cap'n]

Originally posted by linrom1
Smarty Jones should bypass the KD and take a shot at the Preakness. This is last years' Balto Star. Every year we get these precocious speedballs sired by the likes of Carson City , Gltterman, In Excess etc. And as usual some breeding experts tell us that this year is different because of some obscure tail female families stamina influence in the x-X gerneration.-well good for them, I am avoiding all these types.

Who needs an extra five million anyway?

[Valuist]

It seems that the transition between 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles is more difficult than 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/4 miles. If you can get 1 1/8 miles, you should be able to get 1 1/4 miles.

[Speed Figure]

Originally posted by Valuist
It seems that the transition between 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles is more difficult than 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/4 miles. If you can get 1 1/8 miles, you should be able to get 1 1/4 miles.
Not tell that to Peace Rules & Medaglia d 'Oro.:D

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Pace Cap'n
Who needs an extra five million anyway?


Damn! I forgot about the best reason......thanks Pace.....

[shots]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
My figures:

War Emblem: 108 114
Pollard's Vision: 105 107

I truly believe the crop is weaker this year, I can't wait to get the PPs!

some pps at http://www.brisnet.com/promo/dby0501y.pdf

[Dancer's Image]

Linrom1 and JustRalph,
I think you're both right...Smarty Jones does indeed deserve to be there at the Derby, he has certainly done nothing wrong so far, he is undefeated afterall, and there is that little thing about $5 million for winning the Derby. But I also agree with Linrom1 that the owners would be wise to skip the Derby and try to win the Preakness, because SJ has no chance of winning the Derby, especially with a first time starter like Elliott aboard. Skipping the Derby would enhance SJ's chance at winning the Preakness. Of course SJ's owners have no idea that they can't win the Derby; if they had any idea about what it takes to win the Derby, they'd switch jockeys.

[Binder]

I sure hope so

It will be extra sweet if he can do it
I know that there are many people down at the PHA
like myself who will be very proud. It will be a great thrill when they are introducing the horses on Derby Day to hear "From PhiladelphiaPark Smarty Jones" And If he really won I'd never hear that live. I will have to watch the replay from the first aid station. I'll be being revived.
http://www.philadelphiapark.com/pressbox/pressbox.asp?id=687:)

[cj]

Smarty Jones got 1 1/8 nicely, but it was on a sloppy track. That is usually not the same as getting the distance on a fast track.

No way he should pass though, are you kidding me? As for being by "some sprinter", have you checked Funny Cide's sire out? It's Distorted Humor in case you were wondering.

I don't think SJ will win the Derby, I think he may be just a tad too slow. I certainly wouldn't be shocked, however, if he were to win. I just think the odds will be too low to warrant a wager.

[delayjf]

SJ reminds me a bit of the manner in which War emblem won the Ill Derby. Front running Victory with a nice closing kick. If memory serves, WE ran the final 3/8 in 36 and change.

CJ numbers have SJ at 100-107 for the Ark Derby. That tells me he had more left in the tank. Now,did the off track help or hurt his numbers? Our best guess would be to look at his off track numbers and make an educated guess. If he's not breed for the slop, I'd look for him to improve, if he is perhaps not.

[Valuist]

Speed Figure

So Peace Rules wasn't at his best at 1 1/4 miles. He won the Blue Grass at 1 1/8 on an inside-biased speed favoring track so his capabilities at 9 furlongs were shaky to say the least. Medaglio D'oro? He was pretty good in last year's Classic at 1 1/4 miles and was 2nd in the Dubai race. Not too bad. And he even was 2nd (albeit a far back 2nd) in the Belmont.

[Bubbles]

Originally posted by Valuist
Speed Figure

And he even was 2nd (albeit a far back 2nd) in the Belmont.

MDO lost to Sarava by a neck. Not exactly far back IMO.

[Observer]

Smarty Jones absolutely, without question, definitely belongs in the Kentucky Derby!! He's been one of the more scrutinized runners so far, and many didn't even believe he would go the distances at which he's already won. There's something special about horses that continually do the things of which people say they are not capable of doing. And Smarty Jones just keeps right on running and winning .. good thing he can't understand what people have been saying about him as the Derby has drawn closer.

[Joem0210]

Originally posted by Bubbles
There are a lot of horses this year that may not get 10 panels in the Derby, or even 1 3/16-miles in the Preakness. Horses like Master David, Quinton's Gold Rush, Lion Heart, and Preachinatthebar are all very nice steeds, but will, in my opinion, have trouble with the distances of the Triple Crown. Watch the winner's circle on the first Saturday in May. If a horse wins at single-digits, with the rare exceptions of The Cliff's Edge, Smarty, and Tapit, I will be surprised.

I'm currently looking at horses like Imperialism, Castledale, and Pollard's Vision. All three of these will be at decent odds come Derby Day, and depending on the posts, they may warrant the money of the average handicapper. Granted, once the PP's come out, I'll probably change my tune, but for now, I'm singing that little song.

Seems like you are grouping horses together that should not be in same group in my opinion. Master David is not a frint runner like Lion Heart --- Smarty will be closer to the lea than either Cliff or Tapit --- Pollard's Vision will probably try to run with Lion Heart for as long as he can.

[OTM Al]

As long as Smarty is not hung out in the auxiliary gate, I fully expect him to be right up on the lead. He is one of three who have posted 3 triple digit Beyers, Imperialism and Lion Heart being the other 2. His lines are consistant, whereas most of the others have been erratic. So his jockey is a first timer at the derby. It isn't like the guy hasn't won about 3000 races in his career and that the rest of the jocks won't be just a little pumped up too. I just hope people continue to underestimate his chances because I sure don't and I wouldn't mind a nice payoff. Not a one of these fellows has gone 1 1/4 and there is going to be some fine breeding and expensive horesflesh coming in at the tail end of this one to be sure.

[BigJake]

I've already said it once in another thread, but the Derby is about V-A-L-U-E. The absolute best betting race of the year, because there are 75,000 drunks in the infield filling up the win pool on winners like Tapit, Cliff, and Smarty. What was Funny Cide last year, wasn't it like 8 or 9 to 1. In a year where no horse has run consistantly your gonna take 5 to 2 or 3 to 1? NO THANKS.

Jake

[Observer]

Originally posted by BigJake
...In a year where no horse has run consistantly your gonna take 5 to 2 or 3 to 1? ...

No way anyone will be going off at 5-2 or 3-1 .. it would be a stretch to think anyone would even get as low as 4-1.

In 2002, Harlan's Holiday was sent off as the favorite .. and that was at 6-1!! And Harlan had won his last two starts going into the Derby .. those being the Florida Derby and Blue Grass. And this year would appear even more wide open than 2002. The field for 2002 consisted of (by order of finish):

War Emblem..............20.50
Proud Citizen.............23.30
Perfect Drift................7.90
Medaglia d'Oro............6.90
Request for Parole.....29.80
Came Home............... 8.20
Harlan's Holiday..........6.00
Johannesburg.............8.10
Essence of Dubai.......10.00
Saarland....................6.90
Blue Burner...............24.20
Castle Gandolfo........14.50
Easy Grades.............43.80
Private Emblem.........22.40
Lusty Latin................22.10
It'sallinthechase........94.50
Ocean Sound.............48.70
Wild Horses................58.50

Buddha & Danthebluegrassman were scratched .. making it a field of 18 actual runners.


By the way .. Funny Cide was 12.80 .. and as far as I'm concerned .. that was an underlay.

Last year's Derby:

Funny Cide....................12.80
Empire Maker..................2.50
Peace Rules....................6.30
Atswhatimtalkinbout.......8.90
Eye of the Tiger............41.50
Buddy Gil.........................7.20
Outta Here....................39.70
Ten Cents a Shine........37.20
Ten Most Wanted...........6.60
Domestic Dispute..........44.00
Scrimshaw....................16.50
Offlee Wild....................29.90
Supah Blitz...................43.10
Indian Express.............10.80
Lone Star Sky...............52.10
Brancusi.......................29.30

Sir Cherokee was scratched .. making it a field of 16 actual runners.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by BigJake
I've already said it once in another thread, but the Derby is about V-A-L-U-E. The absolute best betting race of the year, because there are 75,000 drunks in the infield filling up the win pool on winners like Tapit, Cliff, and Smarty. What was Funny Cide last year, wasn't it like 8 or 9 to 1. In a year where no horse has run consistantly your gonna take 5 to 2 or 3 to 1? NO THANKS.Jake

Just for giggles.....Jake....did you have Funny or WE the last two years?

[BigJake]

Year I had a thousand on each of them. Singled them on top of all the exotics too. I am relatively new to the whole handicapping picture. Those two derby's I bet the pretty ones and I thought danthebluegrassman was a cool name so I would have bet him with both hands, too bad he scratched. ;)

[JustRalph]

just wondered.........your advice in the previous post would have fit with both of them.........I bet with both fists in those races ...away from the favs........This year is going to be interesting......

[BigJake]

So , is that a big, fat, stogie your smoking :D

I would also like to say that last years derby tri was a joke. I don't remember if it was a $1 or $2 tri but I was at a derby party and some hit it and it was only like $300. What happened to the $15,000 trifectas of the past? (I know last year the top two horses finished 2 and 3).

[Derek2U]

* i hope big jake types his Derby pick. the FC vs WE was easy,
but this year seems harder. but i still want to hear from big jake.

[sjk]

I can't believe they took the 15 and gave Lion Heart the 3.

I may have to bet Lion Heart.

[BigJake]

Why are you guys trying to bust my nuts. I'll commit to a few donkeys that finsh last and next to last and you all will bust my chops until I quite posting. I really haven't run the numbers yet, but I'll be honest and say I really think Wimby and Footnotes have good shots and long prices. Maybe I'll run the numbers and post later.

Big Jake

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by sjk
I can't believe they took the 15 and gave Lion Heart the 3.

I may have to bet Lion Heart.

I am leaning that way too....... when he got the 3 post..... I couldn't believe it. Mike Smith overrode the trainer....from what I heard on Tv. The trainer left it up to him to choose apparently. I am just wondering if anybody will try to run him in the ground and whether the Rain my hurt or help him.......?