Impact of a new TC winner

[Redboard]

How do you think a win by California Chrome on Saturday will help the future of the sport?

I scaled this from 5 to 1 with 5 being the most positive and 1 being the most negative. Since there is a space limitation on how many characters one can use for an option, I’ve explained each option below.

5- It will bring back the glory days of horse racing leading to filled stadiums and skyrocketing handles.
4- It will attract quite a few new fans(and thereby gamblers/owners) which will reverse or stop the declining handles and track attendance.
3-It will add some fans and improve the outlook of the sport, but the bump will, at most, last a few years .
2- Little impact. It will generate a temporary renewed interest in horse racing and add a couple fans but will not change the overall decline in the industry.
1- None at all. After a few weeks things will be exactly the same.

[wiffleball whizz]

How do you think a win by California Chrome on Saturday will help the future of the sport?

I scaled this from 5 to 1 with 5 being the most positive and 1 being the most negative. Since there is a space limitation on how many characters one can use for an option, I’ve explained each option below.

5- It will bring back the glory days of horse racing leading to filled stadiums and skyrocketing handles.
4- It will attract quite a few new fans(and thereby gamblers/owners) which will reverse or stop the declining handles and track attendance.
3-It will add some fans and improve the outlook of the sport, but the bump will, at most, last a few years .
2- Little impact. It will generate a temporary renewed interest in horse racing and add a couple fans but will not change the overall decline in the industry.
1- None at all. After a few weeks things will be exactly the same.

1......and there is no room for debate....

And to be honest it can almost hurt it by next year there will be no hype......there's no debate to my answer in my opinion

[horses4courses]

:1:

But, at least there would be no more "It's been 36 years since...blah, blah"

The problems that exist in US horse racing go far beyond the temporary good feeling that goes with a TC winner.

I want it to happen, but it won't do much good for the sport.

[burnsy]

I agree a :1: . There may be room for a little debate towards a :2: but beyond that is people on the internet dreaming.........

[clocker7]

Horse racing has 3 main jobs to do in order to stay viable:

1. Keep the high take under control, and not let it go even more berserk.
2. Have its tracks become presentable, general-public entertainment venues, with improvements in plant, customer service, food, etc.
3. Fend off the generally-phony claims that it intentionally or negligently abuses animals, and that the competitors are sloshing dangerous drugs.

This Triple Crown season has been successful in the latter regard. Shutting them up has been a godsend, even if only temporarily.

[jahura2]

How do you think a win by California Chrome on Saturday will help the future of the sport?

I scaled this from 5 to 1 with 5 being the most positive and 1 being the most negative. Since there is a space limitation on how many characters one can use for an option, I’ve explained each option below.

5- It will bring back the glory days of horse racing leading to filled stadiums and skyrocketing handles.
4- It will attract quite a few new fans(and thereby gamblers/owners) which will reverse or stop the declining handles and track attendance.
3-It will add some fans and improve the outlook of the sport, but the bump will, at most, last a few years .
2- Little impact. It will generate a temporary renewed interest in horse racing and add a couple fans but will not change the overall decline in the industry.
1- None at all. After a few weeks things will be exactly the same.
#2 seems most likely. IF A "common man's" horse wins you just might get a few that will take a leap of faith.

[Robert Fischer]

anywhere from 1 - 3.

Hopefully the corporate attention can lead to some positive growth.

[Dark Horse]

Exactly. It's not the TC as such. It's what the media and corporations will do with the momentum. Things aren't looking as bad as some may imagine. Both NBC Sports and Fox Sports are in the game now. A little competition can be a good thing...

As far as immediate impact. None. The World Cup kicks off the week after the Belmont.

[elhelmete]

I think it would have the biggest impact among those already into the game, hopefully pushing a few into the next level of appreciation. Like making a few $2 bettors into $10 bettors. Or making someone visit a track a few more times a year. Or making a few more people dip their toe into ownership. And on and on, breeders, etc. Overall not a huge impact, though.

[Robert Goren]

No effect on betting or handle, but it will effect the breeding industry. I expect yearling prices to rise as more rich people chase the dream.

[onefast99]

No effect on betting or handle, but it will effect the breeding industry. I expect yearling prices to rise as more rich people chase the dream.
A triple crown winner will put more people into the seats at race tracks leading up to the Breeders Cup. The discussions about CC and the TC are taking place at every water cooler in the country. The fact that NYRA sent out over 120,000 tickets is evidence enough that this year is very special in the horse racing world. I see an increase in betting and an increase in attendance for the next few months at a minimum but just how much I don't know.

[andtheyreoff]

I say more than people think.

Consider: if there's 125,000 people on-track for the Belmont, that's 75,000 or so people who wouldn't normally be there. If California Chrome wins, 75,000 people who have never been to the track before will leave with a positive memory. Even if 90% of them don't come back, that's still thousands of new fans made. Not to mention all the people watching on television who will be inspired.

If California Chrome runs after the Belmont, I also think that will help the sport even more.

[DJofSD]

No effect on betting or handle, but it will effect the breeding industry. I expect yearling prices to rise as more rich people chase the dream.
Exactly. I agree 100%

The biggest and longest lasting impact if CC does win the TC will be the breeding industry.

Any one know what other get is out of the same mare?

[onefast99]

Exactly. I agree 100%

The biggest and longest lasting impact if CC does win the TC will be the breeding industry.

Any one know what other get is out of the same mare?
Her dam Chase It Down – California Chrome’s second dam – did not produce a stakes winner, but is a half-sister to Amourette, twice a stakes winner at 1 3/8 miles and the dam of Grade 3-placed turf router Lemonade Kid. Chase It Down and Amourette are out of Chase the Dream, by Sir Ivor, a stakes winner and Grade 3-placed at 1 1/16 miles.
Broodmare sire Not for Love brings another of America’s fertile breeding sectors to the equation, as the superbly-bred son of Mr. Prospector has been a constant presence at or near the top of Maryland’s sire list this century.

Coburn was quick to point out in the post-Derby press conference that California Chrome’s dam Love the Chase is also inbred 5X5 to Swaps, the 1955 Derby winner that was exercised by a 16-year old future jockey – and future Kentucky Derby-winning trainer – named Art Sherman.

[DJofSD]

Her dam Chase It Down – California Chrome’s second dam – did not produce a stakes winner, but is a half-sister to Amourette, twice a stakes winner at 1 3/8 miles and the dam of Grade 3-placed turf router Lemonade Kid. Chase It Down and Amourette are out of Chase the Dream, by Sir Ivor, a stakes winner and Grade 3-placed at 1 1/16 miles.
Broodmare sire Not for Love brings another of America’s fertile breeding sectors to the equation, as the superbly-bred son of Mr. Prospector has been a constant presence at or near the top of Maryland’s sire list this century.

Coburn was quick to point out in the post-Derby press conference that California Chrome’s dam Love the Chase is also inbred 5X5 to Swaps, the 1955 Derby winner that was exercised by a 16-year old future jockey – and future Kentucky Derby-winning trainer – named Art Sherman.
Thanks!

Any idea how old is Chase It Down, and, how many other foals she has dropped before CC? (Ugg, which ever mare is CC's dam.)

[Tom]

:1:

[elysiantraveller]

:1: with a dash of :2: sprinkled in.

[Clocker]

I don't think it matters if he wins or loses, the impact has already peaked for now. And win or lose, he will increase the interest in his future races, including the Breeders Cup, which will be billed as either increasing the streak or as a comeback from a loss in the Belmont.

[wiffleball whizz]

Read it from a previous poster if he wins the TC it quickly gets put on the back burner cuz of the World Cup......it's got a life span of 6 days before nobody cares

[thaskalos]

The only positive effect that a Triple Crown winner could bring would be to make top story in Saturday night's SportsCenter.

[Rex Phinney]

I respect what everyone is saying, but if I can play the homer card a little here, let me say that I think this will be a positive development for California racing.

I think the humble breeding of the horse will lead to more people playing the Cal Bred game, I don't believe that people will be making millions with $10,500 foals, but I think a few new people will try.

I also think if the horse keeps racing he will bring tons of people to the track. With the recent renovations at Santa Anita those people will be seeing a best foot forward atmosphere.

I agree that the overall impact will be short lived, but nothing bad can come of this for California racing, and we desperately need a few positive developments.

[clocker7]

Read it from a previous poster if he wins the TC it quickly gets put on the back burner cuz of the World Cup......it's got a life span of 6 days before nobody cares

The World Cup has the potential to go sideways, more than horse racing has ever suffered.

[tanner12oz]

Its an interesting question...personally I think horse racing has fallen so far off the average joes radar that it will have little effect...i do think it will be a special moment for the handful of fans the sport has left....

my first race ever bet was smarty Jones Belmont...not saying it was the sole reason i got into the same but the event that was the smarty party was what got me to open my wallet and actually get to my local otb...thanks to that( or maybe not thanks to that) I've probably dropped 50k in handle since lol

[DJofSD]

tanner12oz, I would agree.

If CC does win the crown, the fame and hubbub will be about as long as a hash tag campaign.

[DeltaLover]

Easy call: :1:

[Cholly]

No effect on betting or handle, but it will effect the breeding industry. I expect yearling prices to rise as more rich people chase the dream.

Actually, Robert, while it could certainly pique the interest of some people to own a race horse, I could see some push-back on pricing; a la..."If a couple of dumb asses can do it for $10 grand, why the hell should I pay $200,000 for an unraced colt?"

I agree with you that two weeks past the race there'll be no effect on betting or attendance. It's not like it's a hidden sport; anybody inclined to follow and/or bet on horse racing is already doing it.

[Longshot6977]

1 or 2, but I lean more towards 1. Actually, it may be a good thing if CC loses to have no TC winner this year. Then next year, casual fans can say "this may finally be the year of a TC winner, blah,blah, blah". There may be renewed interest again to keep the chase going and big handles/attendance.

If there's a TC winner next week, these fans will basically say next year (maybe) "big deal, there was a TC winner last year, nothing to see here, business as usual, keep moving. And look at the sad state of horse racing, still nothing has changed, blah, blah". Just my opine.

[tanner12oz]

Everyone brings up a good point...if cc wins the tc then what does everyone talk about going forward? We might end up with a double dose of Johnny weir to fill the void

[The WindfallAngler]

Thanks!

Any idea how old is Chase It Down, and, how many other foals she has dropped before CC? (Ugg, which ever mare is CC's dam.)There've been two fillies, I read somewhere.

[taxicab]

Well...
If CC wins it will be nice to see a horse on the cover of Sports Illustrated again.
How many years has it been ? :eek:

[DeltaLover]

Well...
If CC wins it will be nice to see a horse on the cover of Sports Illustrated again.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: nice comment

[andtheyreoff]

1 or 2, but I lean more towards 1. Actually, it may be a good thing if CC loses to have no TC winner this year. Then next year, casual fans can say "this may finally be the year of a TC winner, blah,blah, blah". There may be renewed interest again to keep the chase going and big handles/attendance.

If there's a TC winner next week, these fans will basically say next year (maybe) "big deal, there was a TC winner last year, nothing to see here, business as usual, keep moving. And look at the sad state of horse racing, still nothing has changed, blah, blah". Just my opine.

I know what you mean, man. That reminds me of the times I went to Fenway Park back in 2005. I'll tell you, there was nobody there. If there was a foul ball hit into the upper deck, and I was sitting behind home plate (seats were really cheap, since nobody went), I would be able to walk on up there and get that ball with no competition whatsoever. There were so few other people there that over the course of the season, the players started to recognize me. I hear it's only gotten worse since the Sox won the World Series two more times.

And let's not even get started on how it looked in Madison Square Garden back in '95. They were so desperate to get people to go to Rangers games, that they were paying people to get in. And the only people to go were me and a few hobos. If only they had lost that game 7.

[Some_One]

between :2: and :3: for the most IMO. What was the impact of Rachel, Z etc? I think it'll help the casual weekend 2 dollar bettor crowd, but tracks don't give a damn about them it seems and what someone who bets 500 bucks a day 4 times a week.

[SecretAgentMan]

The impact Chrome will have is in Hollywood making some money off a really good story.......the owners, will bank on royalties if its possible in horse racing with hats, shirts, etc.......the middle class people trying to breed the next triple crown winner will come out of the wood work.

ESPN & other sports networks will talk about it for a week until the hype fades. TVG & HRTV will discuss it for a month until the hype fades. Next year, the triple crown trail will get more hype since just having a TC winner the previous year. When Chrome wins, I doubt we will see another TC winner for quite a while.

As for will a TC winner have any impact on the industry itself? No......I don't see anything changing that way. If the industry wants to attract gamblers, they have to start with lowering their take out at the window. Have at least 10 horses in each race which brings more value to the payouts.

How about free entry into the OTB's & race tracks..........& cut the price of the racing form in half. You don't see casinos charging people to walk into them.......the racing industry has so much to fix, its not funny.

[wiffleball whizz]

Can only hurt racing long term if he wins.....triple crown will have no juice to it next year.......it will be great for a week then it will be all over....

[Stillriledup]

I say more than people think.

Consider: if there's 125,000 people on-track for the Belmont, that's 75,000 or so people who wouldn't normally be there. If California Chrome wins, 75,000 people who have never been to the track before will leave with a positive memory. Even if 90% of them don't come back, that's still thousands of new fans made. Not to mention all the people watching on television who will be inspired.

If California Chrome runs after the Belmont, I also think that will help the sport even more.

The problem is that the 75,000 that wouldn't normally be there are not even necessarily "going to the track" they're just going to an "Event" because that's where "everyone else is"

They're not racing fans and they're not people who want to become racing fans, its just the "place to be" and that's why they're there.

Now, that's not bad, but its not necessarily good either. It only helps belmont put a few extra bucks in their own pockets, it doesnt help you or me and it doesn't help any of the other tracks.

[depalma113]

Can only hurt racing long term if he wins.....triple crown will have no juice to it next year.......it will be great for a week then it will be all over....


The Triple Crown will always have hype if a horse is chasing it.

[Redboard]

Call me a cockeyed optimist, but I’m a solid 3.5. I see an extended bump from having a new TC winner. When Secretariat won, I remember the interest the following year was astronomical, and every year until up Seattle Slew did it again.

Would anyone here say that "things were exactly the same in two weeks" after big red won?

As h4c mentioned, at the very least we won’t have to deal with the question of why hasn’t there been a TC winner in umpty years.

[acorn54]

one thing i think will happen is that quite a few $2 win tickets will be put on california chrome as keepsakes. i know quite a few people who have never even bet a horse race that will bet two bucks on california chrome, just so they can have an historical keepsake.
who knows how much money the track will make if california chrome wins and people don't cash their tickets, but it will probably be a big windfall.

[DeltaLover]

As a bettor, I am more interested about the impact of not having a TC winner this year since I have a feeling that a huge overlay might be there...

Comparison of CC to S are only rhetoric, these two do not belong in the same sentense

As far as comparing S's TC to a possible CC's, I find the argument rhetoric since these two do not belong to same sentense, any way you see it..

[Valuist]

If he wins the Triple Crown, there might be a very short term boost in interest, but very short term.

But the longer term ramifications could be negative. If he wins by a neck in 2:31 2/5, its not going to look real special. What's MADE the event so big has been the long drought, and the fact that those who've won were considered legitimate equine superstars.

[Skanoochies]

? Personally it`s hard for me to believe there is a negative aspect to a horse
winning the TC. Lots of folks have been asking "Will we ever see another TC winner?"Now that it is possible there seems to be a lot of negativity IMO. :confused:

[Valuist]

? Personally it`s hard for me to believe there is a negative aspect to a horse
winning the TC. Lots of folks have been asking "Will we ever see another TC winner?"Now that it is possible there seems to be a lot of negativity IMO. :confused:

I'm talking about interest in the race down the road. When nobody has won in over 35 years, Joe Public wants to see a Triple Crown winner. The public doesn't care about the Breeders Cup. Once the drama is gone from someone breaking the streak of no Triple Crowns, they will go back to forgetting about racing, IMO.

I just saw Whiffleball had posted the same thing. Sorry for the redundancy, but I think he's right.

[DJofSD]

For those old enough, there has been a TC winner in their lifetime. Perhaps it was a part of the things that were of interest and perhaps not.

Those who were not alive for the last TC winner will experience a personal first. Could even become a once in a lifetime event. Will it be of interest or even capture their imagination? We won't know unless it's turned into a video game.

[clocker7]

Yeah, the cynical too-cute-by-half negativity is a wonder to behold. I remember Seattle Slew and Affirmed getting the treatment while things were in progress, too.

This is far, FAR from being a done deal. But if he succeeds, then CC will be a genuine superstar with a long winning streak that exceeds what about half of the previous TC winners had accomplished until then. Go back to look at the records of Gallant Fox or Whirlway, Assault or Sir Barton, to compare. Omaha had a pair of cheap allowance wins, total, before his crown. LOL.

CC has a resume and a fairy-tale story line that will make him a legend, should he be lucky enough to prevail on Saturday. Even if he fails, he's had a run that others would die for.

There is a lot of dead brain-matter at work here, scorning this colt. Criminy, it's both comical and embarrassing to read.

[Valuist]

Yeah, the cynical too-cute-by-half negativity is a wonder to behold. I remember Seattle Slew and Affirmed getting the treatment while things were in progress, too.

This is far, FAR from being a done deal. But if he succeeds, then CC will be a genuine superstar with a long winning streak that exceeds what about half of the previous TC winners had accomplished until then. Go back to look at the records of Gallant Fox or Whirlway, Assault or Sir Barton, to compare. Omaha had a pair of cheap allowance wins, total, before his crown. LOL.

CC has a resume and a fairy-tale story line that will make him a legend, should he be lucky enough to prevail on Saturday. Even if he fails, he's had a run that others would die for.

There is a lot of dead brain-matter at work here, scorning this colt. Criminy, it's both comical and embarrassing to read.

You are getting way too full of yourself here. Seattle Slew was unbeaten going into the Belmont. Affirmed had two losses, both to another great horse in Alydar. Yes, Smarty Jones was unbeaten going into the Belmont, and I believe that hype was justified. California Chrome's resume isn't on the same level as those three horses, IMO.

[The WindfallAngler]

You are getting way too full of yourself here. Seattle Slew was unbeaten going into the Belmont. Affirmed had two losses, both to another great horse in Alydar. Yes, Smarty Jones was unbeaten going into the Belmont, and I believe that hype was justified. California Chrome's resume isn't on the same level as those three horses, IMO.Believe what you like. < emits jaw-cracking yawn > Some (myself included) will say that you've diminished their prestige, when you rate Smarty Jones that highly.

(Spectacular Bid, now that will fly.) As for CALIFORNIA CHROME, he will prove fit to join this select company, replete with full honors. ...or he won't. We'll see.

[The WindfallAngler]

Yeah, the cynical too-cute-by-half negativity is a wonder to behold. I remember Seattle Slew and Affirmed getting the treatment while things were in progress, too.

This is far, FAR from being a done deal. But if he succeeds, then CC will be a genuine superstar with a long winning streak that exceeds what about half of the previous TC winners had accomplished until then. Go back to look at the records of Gallant Fox or Whirlway, Assault or Sir Barton, to compare. Omaha had a pair of cheap allowance wins, total, before his crown. LOL.

CC has a resume and a fairy-tale story line that will make him a legend, should he be lucky enough to prevail on Saturday. Even if he fails, he's had a run that others would die for.

There is a lot of dead brain-matter at work here, scorning this colt. Criminy, it's both comical and embarrassing to read.Hear, hear!

[PaceAdvantage]

Hear, hear!Comical and embarrassing? Really now...

[clocker7]

PACE, it's one thing to opine that having a TC winner might be a short term thing at best. No argument from me, there, a legitimate stance, maybe even correct.

But agonizing that the long term ramifications would be a net negative is so far out in space it deserves every catcall it gets. Bottom line, having this sport get positive press is a good thing, and should CC join the likes of others that had much bigger holes in their resumes, then there is absolutely no downside for his reputation or that of racing. In fact, it's ROFLOL ludicrous to say so.

Many people did not take to Seattle Slew or Affirmed at this point in their careers, either. In fact, there was some resentment and denigration from some Secretariat fans. (Affirmed got more digs after SS beat him twice.) But fast forward to now: NO ONE f@rts at their legacies. And, should CC be tough enough to prevail, then he will be considered every bit as good as most, and better than some. Just by beating larger fields and facing more strategically-targeted competitors would earn extra credit from me.

[Valuist]

PACE, it's one thing to opine that having a TC winner might be a short term thing at best. No argument from me, there, a legitimate stance, maybe even correct.

But agonizing that the long term ramifications would be a net negative is so far out in space it deserves every catcall it gets. Bottom line, having this sport get positive press is a good thing, and should CC join the likes of others that had much bigger holes in their resumes, then there is absolutely no downside for his reputation or that of racing. In fact, it's ROFLOL ludicrous to say so.

Many people did not take to Seattle Slew or Affirmed at this point in their careers, either. In fact, there was some resentment and denigration from some Secretariat fans. (Affirmed got more digs after SS beat him twice.) But fast forward to now: NO ONE f@rts at their legacies. And, should CC be tough enough to prevail, then he will be considered every bit as good as most, and better than some. Just by beating larger fields and facing more strategically-targeted competitors would earn extra credit from me.


I watched those races but did not handicap them. Its understandable that Secretariat fans might slight Slew and/or Affirmed, but I wonder what they'd say about California Chrome in comparison. But being unbeaten carries an extra degree of specialness, as both Slew and Smarty were (Affirmed's two losses were to Alydar).

As for the long term ramifications, its really more about the attitude of the general public. The difficulty of the TC is why they pay attention (sort of). Once a winner comes along, Joe Six Pack figures, been there, done that.

If racing wants positive long term ramifications, they still need to cut the takeout. That's bigger than any Triple Crown win.