Belmont dirt Stakes - Saturday

[PhantomOnTour]

These state bred showcase days always offer big fields and value.
Love them - going to stick to the dirt and go over a few Stks races.

Race 3 - the Bouwerie
Flipcup is likely the one to beat on the cutback to 7f (ideal cutback distance). But she is just too slow and will need these gals to come back to her a bit in order to win this. So let's beat her.
Rudy has Henry's Gal in full effect right now and she looks like she'll get an easy lead. Picks up 4lbs and goes further than ever...still gotta use her.
Ms Sylvia A is solid and fast, but I wonder about her class after breaking the Mdn for a tag and winning a starter Alw before trying this bunch.
Prairie Stone is another cutbacker who can be dangerous, but her big fig came over an off track, so that number can be questioned. Got a nice pace set up for that win also...think I will relegate her to "underneath" status only despite the white hot connections.
Settling on this (odds willing ofcourse):
EX :5: :6: w :2: :4: :5: :6:
WIN :6:

[PhantomOnTour]

Race 5 - the Mike Lee

Too bad Uncle Sigh scratched cuz I was going to swang against him at seriously underlaid odds...oh well.
I am settled on :7: Swell and :9: Loki's Vengeance.
Swell gets Cornelio up today for a sneaky good trainer in Peter Pugh and he can do this 2nd off the shelf. Got no pace to close into last time and still moved well in the lane...sharp works since and I think he is all set to go today.
Loki looks like the speed in this one (unless Gotham also ran Deceived balls out from the gate, but I doubt it) and can hang around a very long time. Duked it out early in two non NY bred Stakes, one of them a Gr3, and won three straight vs NY breds. Going to be tough to nail today.

EX: :7: :9: w :1: :7: :9: :10:
WIN :9:

[PhantomOnTour]

Race 7 - the Critical Eye

Meh - the only one I wanted to use against La Verdad has scratched, so I will likely pass this one. Just don't see them getting to this gal despite the stretch to 1m. Lead is hers pretty easily and she tends to pour it on in the stretch.
Using over the three best closers...

EX: :5: w :2: :3: :8:
WIN: :3: :8:

tossing the Hollendorfer shipper, Macha

[PhantomOnTour]

Race 9 - the Commentator

What a race, but why is it only at 1m??
Initially, I am down on the :1: :3: :5: (I think Zivo is a beast) but not ready to set this in stone before I see some races over the track today.

:1: is a stout E type but won't find it easy out there on the front, but his last two wins were outstanding. In light at only 115lbs today.
:3: is basically my value in this race...fresh. loves Bel, bad ass connections.
Looks like he will get a nice trip behind a good pace, no excuses but must get the 1m distance today off a freshening
:5: is just fast, man. Period. Determined stretch runner (a la Will Take Charge) is always there and runs fast figs. Gets a good clip to run at and must be used.

EX: :1: :3: :5: w :1: :3: :5: :7:
WIN: :3:

good luck at Big Sandy today!

[PhantomOnTour]

Race 2 - the Kingston

Lubash is money when in vs NY breds - price a bit low at 7-2 but I figure he will be right there.
My price horse is the :3: but he needs to prove he's more than a sprinter. Consistent type can get some at 7-1.
Big push on the interwebs for the :9: Street Game who loves Bel and has a nice trainer in Nevin, but has been off a long time...6-1 price sems fair though.

ex: :1: :3: w :1: :3: :4: :8: :9:
win: :1:

[PhantomOnTour]

Race 2 - the Kingston

Lubash is money when in vs NY breds - price a bit low at 7-2 but I figure he will be right there.
My price horse is the :3: but he needs to prove he's more than a sprinter. Consistent type can get some at 7-1.
Big push on the interwebs for the :9: Street Game who loves Bel and has a nice trainer in Nevin, but has been off a long time...6-1 price sems fair though.

ex: :1: :3: w :1: :3: :4: :8: :9:
win: :1:
No excuse for the :1: there - got outmoved and that was that.

Anyone see the first flash of the tote for Race 3?
Ms Sylvia A opened at 7-5 but is somehow at 5-1 right now :eek:

[BlueChip@DRF]

No excuse for the :1: there - got outmoved and that was that.

Anyone see the first flash of the tote for Race 3?
Ms Sylvia A opened at 7-5 but is somehow at 5-1 right now :eek:

That's a bet right there! I'm on board for $20. :cool:

[BlueChip@DRF]

Ooh! And a $5 action bet on #1. I always play this when the horse is a grey because greys "look pretty" with the red saddle cloth. :)

[PhantomOnTour]

Race 3

the price on this :4: is puzzling...17-1...really!?
Her last was pretty darned good.

Will amend my bet and put a win wager on this one as well as the :6:

[BlueChip@DRF]

Race 3

the price on this :4: is puzzling...17-1...really!?
Her last was pretty darned good.

Will amend my bet and put a win wager on this one as well as the :6:

Maybe it was the slop that helped her out?

[PhantomOnTour]

A total whiff :bang:
Things may have been different if the :5: hadn't gotten hung up at the start, but that's racing.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Mah Jong Madness in the 4th. :)

:1::5::10: boxes in the 5th race.

[PhantomOnTour]

Tough to get around the big chalk here...has pace, class, and loves Belmont turf.

Value is there on the :3: who is 2-2 with Castellano up. Been off awhile but is well prepped and can bring it in the lane. Owns a few NY bred Stks wins on the turf.
Readiness is the question...
How about a :5: :3: ALL tri and win bet on the :3: .

Romney is going to the front and can be tough with the rails all the way out in the parking lot today.
Miz Owell looks outclassed but she is a strong stretch runner also and maybe gets a piece....saver EX :3: :5: w :8:

[PhantomOnTour]

Nice pick BlueChip...I did not like that winner at all :mad:

The :3: was getting a dream trip and seemed reluctant to run inside horses. She shied away and lost her action a bit as JJ was trying to get thru on the rail turning for home. She ran on once he moved her out a bit.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Nice pick BlueChip...I did not like that winner at all :mad:

The :3: was getting a dream trip and seemed reluctant to run inside horses. She shied away and lost her action a bit as JJ was trying to get thru on the rail turning for home. She ran on once he moved her out a bit.

Thanks. It looked like I was about to get passed at the top of the lane.

[PhantomOnTour]

Did okay...missed the Bouwerie and Mike Lee but hit the Critical Eye and Commentator, with the latter being a nice exacta payoff.