Picks for Thursday

[Tom]

Try the trainer angle again:

AQU 12/27/01 4 Showtime
AQU 12/27/01 6 Looking Afar
AQU 12/27/01 8 Sign Of Courage
CRC 12/27/01 5 Sweet Dreams Baby
CRC 12/27/01 8 One Judge Trend
CRC 12/27/01 9* Oh Say Glory
CRC 12/27/01 9* Jasper Park
TAM 12/27/01 8 Twining Star (Turf)
TAM 12/27/01 10 Golden Frosty

* Bet both

Tom

[Tom]

End of experiment.


0 for 22 with proven winners is just not enought to bother with.
Crammer can have them.

Tom

[smf]

Tom,

22 in a row?!

I can't help but laugh :) (not at you, at the sellers). "Mechanical" trainer plays are dangerous to one's health (and pocketbook). 22 in a row! Yeowzers. Maybe Cramer will offer you a refund on your wagers,lol.

I'm sure the next "sure thing" book by that group is being created as we speak/ post.

[JimG]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by smf
Tom,

22 in a row?!

I can't help but laugh :) (not at you, at the sellers). "Mechanical" trainer plays are dangerous to one's health (and pocketbook). 22 in a row! Yeowzers. Maybe Cramer will offer you a refund on your wagers,lol.

I'm sure the next "sure thing" book by that group is being created as we speak/ post.
[/QUOTE


smf,

Happy holidays to you. Hope you are well. I was wondering if you have taken a look at Ed Bain's trainer work and if so, your thoughts on it?

Guess what...My attache was stolen while on vacation. Inside it was my Collison book on the claiming game and the Whitaker book Handicapping Trainers. Gotta try to find them again. Weird that the thief did not steal wife's pocket book.

Jim






]

[smf]

Hi Jim. Happy Holidays to you as well. Hope the thief returns the books (ouch!). If you buy Collison's book again, shop around. ATM had it for half the price of ITS' offer 2 years go. His book sure opened a door or 2 for me.

Haven't bought Ed's program, but I'll get the book. Sounds like he has a good thing going, but I'm very happy w/ what I'm doing w/ claims in your part of the world, and turf races here (FG). Pattern plays are what I'm comfortable with.

I'd like to read how he goes about determining exactly what is a "bet" for layoffs. I have a feeling he bets by raw %'s which I don't get into. It works for him, tho--- that's all that counts.

Like I posted to Tom, your new HTR "trainer & pedigree stats" look very good. For a quick and dirty it's hard to beat what I saw. Good luck!

[Tom]

Lots of crime this season-I was at the mall the other day, and I absent mindedly left two Buffalo Bill's season tickets on my car seat.
When I came back later, there four tickets there!!!!
~G~

smf -
I remember Jim Bradshaw once told me that he would start looking at trainers when they started running the races.
I think I agree with him.

Happy holidays

Tom

[smf]

Tom,

Poor Jim Bradshaw. No doubt he got burned by many a runner that had just been claimed (by a competent trainer).

"Dang! It jest don't figure by my numbers!".


:p

[JimG]

Originally posted by smf


I'd like to read how he goes about determining exactly what is a "bet" for layoffs. I have a feeling he bets by raw %'s which I don't get into. It works for him, tho--- that's all that counts.



smf,

Glad to hear your pattern claims are going well. If I ever get the time (I probably have it but it sounds like a good excuse) I'm going to look at the patterns more.

With respect to the layoffs, Bain tracks 1,2,3 and 4 off a layoff split by route and sprint and circuit. Once it meets certain criteria (wins and percentages) and doesn't have any negative factors (which he is to explain in book) it is a bet. I'm looking at it starting next month and will let you know what I think.

Jim

[smf]

Jim,

I've read about his 4-30 requirement and it sounds very good. I go to his board once in awhile and he seems to downplay negative post positions, and multiple plays in any given race....sounds like he has a great plan.

The claim patterns I've found in your neck of the woods are for the most part "claimed from" patterns. Certain guys give up younger runners, others are running thier horses in sprints and they're bred to go long, vice-versa, etc...It kinda blows up the theory that good claiming trainers are dependent on a vet, but I'm sure that happens as well.

Good luck w/ Ed's program! Let us know how it's going after awhile, I'd be interested to know.

[JimG]

smf,


I am just checking Bain out on the side. Not plasnning to seriously act on it. However, I sent you a private message tonight on something I do intend to start on in 2002. Hope you get time to check it out.


Jim

[smf]

Jim,

No problem. Reply on its way.

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by smf
Tom,

22 in a row?!

I can't help but laugh :) (not at you, at the sellers). "Mechanical" trainer plays are dangerous to one's health (and pocketbook). 22 in a row! Yeowzers. Maybe Cramer will offer you a refund on your wagers,lol.

I'm sure the next "sure thing" book by that group is being created as we speak/ post.





I see on the cynthia site, cynpub.com, there is a new "booklet" for $60 by Cramer.

[smf]

Originally posted by anotherdave




Anotherdave,

Too funny!:)

I had a felling they'd come thru w/ yet more pearls of wisdom, and this latest bit costs just $60.

[ranchwest]

Sounds like a pretty good elimination method to me. Wish I knew what it was.