Medal Count

[luisbe]

When I was gathering all info for the Kentucky Derby I wrote on a piece of paper the word "Belmont" along his name.
This is my key horse for the Belmont Stakes in horizontal and multirace bets.
I'll play some tickets to win as well expecting an overlay.

[depalma113]

You do realize he is not going to the Belmont Stakes.

[ArlJim78]

not a bad idea, he fits well and could be a threat in the Belmont.
as long as we're sharing notes, here are the notes I wrote down regarding his derby run.

raced evenly in the middle of the pack 3-4 wide, going into first turn squeezed back a little, then in str while making up some ground, Danza came out on him and seemed to take him out of rhythm. After that he wrapped up. Pretty good run.

[ArlJim78]

You do realize he is not going to the Belmont Stakes.

Medal Count, Keeneland's Toyota Blue Grass runner-up who was eighth in the Kentucky Derby, has joined the cast for the June 7 Belmont Stakes in New York.
http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/triple/2014/05/27/connections-pointing-medal-count-belmont-stakes/9632881/

[depalma113]

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/triple/2014/05/27/connections-pointing-medal-count-belmont-stakes/9632881/

Thanks for the update. Did not see that.

[letswastemoney]

Medal Count's five siblings have a combined 1 route win between them all. I don't think this horse is made for dirt, nor 1.5 miles.

I envision a menacing move that flattens out.

[tanner12oz]

Dangerous horse

[Track Phantom]

Medal Count does have a speed influence on the female tree but gets tons of stamina from the Dynaformer side.

I had him picked second to California Chrome in the Derby and didn't even realize until recently how badly he got cut off by Danza. If you watch the replay of the Derby, his final two strides before Danza came over looked powerful and he appeared to be initiating a giant move. I've watched it many times and he may have been 2nd. We'll never know.

From my perspective, he is a MAJOR win candidate.

[GaryG]

I bet him in the Derby and thought he would be in the money before he was wiped out by Danza. I hope he doesn't become a wise guy horse for the Belmont, but the attention will be on CC and Ride On Curlin. He looks like he will handle the distance.

[pandy]

Medal Count does have a speed influence on the female tree but gets tons of stamina from the Dynaformer side.

I had him picked second to California Chrome in the Derby and didn't even realize until recently how badly he got cut off by Danza. If you watch the replay of the Derby, his final two strides before Danza came over looked powerful and he appeared to be initiating a giant move. I've watched it many times and he may have been 2nd. We'll never know.

From my perspective, he is a MAJOR win candidate.

Absolutely, Bravo should have been taken down, and probably should have received days for that ride. Medal Count was badly impeded.

[theotherside]

everyone has an excuse for the closers in the derby,its really amazing.this is the presice reason cc is the horse to beat yet again in the belmont.he has tactical speed and with a decent ride should have no problem holding off all the one run, all over the track, trying to stay out of trouble closers that had all the excuses for losing the derby that all closers always have.

[Track Phantom]

everyone has an excuse for the closers in the derby,its really amazing.this is the presice reason cc is the horse to beat yet again in the belmont.he has tactical speed and with a decent ride should have no problem holding off all the one run, all over the track, trying to stay out of trouble closers that had all the excuses for losing the derby that all closers always have.

Your point?

[ArlJim78]

I don't like derby closers in the Belmont, it never turns out like people think, with the extra distance giving them the advantage. In fact they are at a big disadvantage.
With that said I doubt if Medal Count will be far off the pace in the Belmont. He's not a closer in the same sense that the others are. In the derby I don't think he was more than 5-6 lengths off the pace if memory serves. Thats what makes him dangerous in the Belmont, that he runs very evenly, and certainly has the right breeding. I still prefer California Chrome but his margin for error is not large.

[boys at tosconova]

i think medal count could jockey for position early. there's a possibility he'll be up closer (4567) rather than last (89101112)

the dirt might pose soem problems...however, the price will be right in the exotics w/ him finishing 2nd

[Tall One]

Bullet 6f at CD this morning in 1:10(.60).

[PoloUK6108]

Im all over Medal Count saturday, although i'll be rooting for Chrome and hope he takes the crown.

I'll be boxing both in most if not all my wagers

[menifee]

Even drawing the 1 post I think this horse is a major player. The only two horses I can see winning this race are CC or Medal Count.

His Derby and Blue Grass were sneaky good races. The works are tremendous. He's going to have to get a lot faster to beat CC, but at a mile and a half that may be an equalizer.

You could make the case that he is just not that good on dirt, but given his value, I think taking that risk might be worth it and you have to consider him if you are going to try to beat CC.

[pandy]

It's hard to say if he really likes dirt, but he was finishing well before being badly cut off in the Derby, so it looked like he was handling the Churchill service. Good luck. He certainly has the pedigree to handle the distance.

[DRIVEWAY]

It's hard to say if he really likes dirt, but he was finishing well before being badly cut off in the Derby, so it looked like he was handling the Churchill service. Good luck. He certainly has the pedigree to handle the distance.

Agreed.

Ironically, he had a good trip before being cutoff. He was bottled up amongst horses and protected from the wind.

Pedigree says dirt and distance should be ok. Actually, he has won on dirt, turf and poly. Trainer Romans likes his chances. However, this will be a class check.

With only eight lifetime starts, there is still upside.

[pandy]

Romans is really old school with the blistering fast works. He went 6 furlongs in 1:10.3 in his last work at Churchill. His last work before the Derby was 6f. in 1:13, so it looks like Romans feels he needs to sharpen his speed. At any rate, he should be fit.

[GaryG]

If things go as planned I will bet him to win and place as I did in the Derby and in a tri box with Chrome and Wicked Strong.

[boys at tosconova]

i like the post,...i like the unknown and possibility

i like the ability to save ground and be up close.

i like the odds and value.

could be a 60-100 exacta w/chrome on top and key up to a 500 triple number w/ the figures 3rd

[Robert Fischer]

He's not a real explosive finisher, and the distance is always a question even with great looking breeding. This is a horse who could go either way (could flatten out or could be grinding home pretty well).

If he gets a good trip and has a lot of momentum, he has a chance to contend.

[ArlJim78]

a well bred steady grinder with decent ability is a good fit for the Belmont. you don't have to be explosive. Think Drosselmeyer or Summer Bird. I see Medal Count as a similar type.

[pandy]

a well bred steady grinder with decent ability is a good fit for the Belmont. you don't have to be explosive. Think Drosselmeyer or Summer Bird. I see Medal Count as a similar type.

You can probably add to that list of grinders, Birdstone, Sarava, Colonial Affair, not exactly quick horses, as I recall.

[luisbe]

You can probably add to that list of grinders, Birdstone, Sarava, Colonial Affair, not exactly quick horses, as I recall.
I think we will not see him more than 5 lengths off the pace.

[boys at tosconova]

I think we will not see him more than 5 lengths off the pace.

i think there is a strong probability of this. the question is how he'll like the track, and distance, and if he's good enough.....he should be in striking distance

[luisbe]

i think there is a strong probability of this. the question is how he'll like the track, and distance, and if he's good enough.....he should be in striking distance
Sure, I'm putting a lot of faith -only- on one side of the scale against what he depicted so far.

[boys at tosconova]

Sure, I'm putting a lot of faith -only- on one side of the scale against what he depicted so far.

faith w/ positives and value attached.....medal..might be very live here....the horse has had bad posts..and the horse has exhibited early foot b4...and in a race w/o much speed he should be up closer.

[theotherside]

the horse can grind and grind all he wants he is to slow to win the belmont.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

the horse can grind and grind all he wants he is to slow to win the belmont.

Lot of slow horses in the field. CC has three races with a triple digit Beyer, four others with one race in triple digits.

If Medal Count improves a bit at 1.5 miles, and grinds along with a 102 or 103, that just might be good enough to beat these.....

[menifee]

Lot of slow horses in the field. CC has three races with a triple digit Beyer, four others with one race in triple digits.

If Medal Count improves a bit at 1.5 miles, and grinds along with a 102 or 103, that just might be good enough to beat these.....

Yeah that is the only way he can win it. I'm seeing Dynaformer on the top side and I think he can grind it out. Big question is whether he likes dirt. CC would have to hit the wall at the 1/8th pole though, because I think he runs his race.

One rule of handicapping that I've always lived by is that you never take a short price on a horse doing something for the first time. It's such a true statement. That's what I'm worried about with CC.

[pandy]

the horse can grind and grind all he wants he is to slow to win the belmont.

Ah, you see, this is the thing, Medal Count has only raced 8 times. Is he too slow, or WAS he too slow. If he hadn't gotten checked in last, that would have been his first triple digit speed figure, which would have been his fourth straight improved speed figure. You can find thousands of racehorses that didn't run their fastest races until after their 8th career start. This is one of the biggest reasons why so many longshots have won the Belmont, and so many favorites have failed. Many people look at the horses pps and forget that these are young horses. One of them can step up and run a speed figure that is 5 to 20 points higher than it's ever run. As for C. Chrome, I think we've seen his best. He may run better later in the year, or next year, if he's still running, but he seemed to put forth his best effort in the Preakness and he ran basically the same race he ran in the Derby and Santa Anita Derby. Others are more likely to improve in this race.

[boys at tosconova]

the count showed good early foot in the derby. and not only did he get pinched early, he was shut off by danza in the stretch. he would have finished much better if he didn't. to what extent, and to where he would have ended up varies on who you talk to...but it would be better than his line shows.....

now you get 20/30-1 on a horse that will be up closer than he has in a while, + he can have decent stalking position...distance will always be a problem for all, but it may not bother this horse nearly as much as the others..

there's really quite a bit to like at big odds

[boys at tosconova]

right now i'm leaning on using the count as my key for 2nd/3rd behind chrome,wicked and tone in the trips...to be honest, i might even put him on top as well.

i don't want to even play the 2-11-9 variants..at least w/ the count your number will be decent.

[ArlJim78]

I'm only putting a token amount into play on the Belmont itself, but my play will be supers with Cal Chrome on top, Medal Count must finish in the super, as well as either Ride on Curlin, Wicked Strong, or The General. using the others to fill out the fourth spot and hoping to make 3-1 overall.

[theotherside]

checked, cut off, bad trip, these are only part of the reasons no closer can be bet most of the time,never heard of the 8th start lifetime best beyer coming up angle.cant bet horses based on what we think they can do.all the info is there so the question is even if theres a meltdown up front which is what he needs has he shown he can win this race,i think he hasnt.

[boys at tosconova]

checked, cut off, bad trip, these are only part of the reasons no closer can be bet most of the time,never heard of the 8th start lifetime best beyer coming up angle.cant bet horses based on what we think they can do.all the info is there so the question is even if theres a meltdown up front which is what he needs has he shown he can win this race,i think he hasnt.

i think medal count is going to be up close today..winning should be difficult, but hitting the board, i'll take a chance

[GaryG]

I was afraid he would get bet down, but he is 21-1 in the early betting and I am alive for the $258 double.

[pandy]

checked, cut off, bad trip, these are only part of the reasons no closer can be bet most of the time,never heard of the 8th start lifetime best beyer coming up angle.cant bet horses based on what we think they can do.all the info is there so the question is even if theres a meltdown up front which is what he needs has he shown he can win this race,i think he hasnt.


If you look at the horses that have won the Belmont in the past, you'll see that with many of them, you could not possibly have bet them off the form they showed on paper. These are not older horses with established lifetime best form. They can improve, and most of them will improve, either today, or in some future race. California Chrome is the least likely to improve in this race because he has already peaked, at least in his current form cycle. If he races later in the year, or next year, he may go better, but not likely today. He'll either regress, or he'll run the same race he has run in his past 6 races. If he runs the same race, and no one improves, then Tonalist is the only horse that has a shot because he is the only horse that has run fast enough to beat him based on past form. But, like I said, there's a good chance that one or more of the other horses will improve. This is the tricky thing about betting young horses, maiden races, NW1's, etc., you can't trust past form like you can with older horses.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

If you look at the horses that have won the Belmont in the past, you'll see that with many of them, you could not possibly have bet them off the form they showed on paper. These are not older horses with established lifetime best form. They can improve, and most of them will improve, either today, or in some future race. California Chrome is the least likely to improve in this race because he has already peaked, at least in his current form cycle. If he races later in the year, or next year, he may go better, but not likely today. He'll either regress, or he'll run the same race he has run in his past 6 races. If he runs the same race, and no one improves, then Tonalist is the only horse that has a shot because he is the only horse that has run fast enough to beat him based on past form. But, like I said, there's a good chance that one or more of the other horses will improve. This is the tricky thing about betting young horses, maiden races, NW1's, etc., you can't trust past form like you can with older horses.

Great call on Tonalist.

Was all over Medal Count.

Not complaining, or making any excuses, but in the stretch, did Tonalist move over and cut off the 1 late?

I'd like to see a head on view (and I don't think the 11 came over to cut off the 1), but I would be interested with a head on view. I think the 1 just flattended out and had nothing left to get it done. No sour grapes here. Firmly believe the best horse won today.