FigLine

[Tom]

I just got Gordon Pine's FigLine software, and it is pretty neat. You put in whatever numbers you want, speed ratings, class ratings, etc. and it gives you an odds line and you can set what edge you need to make a bet line. I used htr ratings and beyer ratings and got good results with both. I mad up a rule that I only bet if the odds are at least my bet line (I use 20% for my edge) and no bets on any horse whose probability of winning is under 10%, no matter what knid of overlay it is. Caught a couple on nice ones at Aqu yesterday. I bet any hose that meets my requirements, even if that means betting two or three horses. Too early to give any actual statistics, and I am still playing around with what numbers to use, but I will keep records and report back after I get a decent number of races played. For this test, I am going to use Howard Sartin's suggestion to only count race in which I bet real money, to keep it honest.

Tom

[Bob Harris]

Tom,

Please do keep us informed...I bought Figline several months ago as a backup in case my data supplier ever went down...you certainly can't beat the price!

To date I haven't messed with it much...it did seem to rate the first couple of choices much stronger than the rest of the field...not really a bad thing for players using an oddsline for the first time. Betting on 3rd and 4th choices, while profitable, will turn your hair gray in a hurry!

Let us know if you have any luck with it!

Bob

[Dave Schwartz]

Bob,

Gordon was kind enough to send me a copy for review...

I found what you did. It has a tendancy to pump up the probabilities on the top couple of horses at the expense of the others. Interestingly, my got feeling is that is exactly what needs to be done (at least in HSH).

Dave

[Bob Harris]

Originally posted by Dave Schwartz
Bob,

Gordon was kind enough to send me a copy for review...

I found what you did. It has a tendancy to pump up the probabilities on the top couple of horses at the expense of the others. Interestingly, my got feeling is that is exactly what needs to be done (at least in HSH).

Dave


Dave,

Interesting that you feel that way...I have been going over the final draft of Steve F.'s book and in the section where he dissects his betting records he shows how 86% of his profits come from races where he has an overlay on one of his top 2 choices.

Gordon may be right...you either have an insight into the race which the crowd doesn't share or you don't. Betting into races where your top 2 choices pretty much agree with the public's opinion of the race may not be too wise.

Let me know if you do any research on the subject with HSH in the future...I'd be very interested in the results.

Thanks!!

Bob

[PaceAdvantage]

My own research (although limited in scope compared to others....) would agree with what Dave just said.....(in terms of pumping up the top 2 or 3 choices)

This is what my oddsline does....(borrowed somewhat from the work of James Jasper.....)


==PA

[Tom]

I notifed this, too and I like it because what I normally find in oddslines is that the top two horse ar usually never overlays and thus not bet. The fact the top two horse may combine to win near 50% of the races seems to be a fator not taken into account in a lot of lines. If I were a professional making my living off the races, I would probably be betting enough races to not care, but I enjoy the reace in the short run, and I want to have more betting opportunities. You have to temper true value with your total play - enjoyment of betting and cashing, as well as handicapping, is a major part of the equation.

Tom

[Dave Schwartz]

PA,

Okay, now you've got me. All that is left to do is reel me in.

What, pray tell, came out of Jasper's two books that had much merit? I may still have them somewhere. I'd love to find some meaningful reason why I've kept them all these years.

Or did he write other books that I have missed?

Dave

[Tom]

You've got me, too....who is James Jasper and what did he write?

Tom

[PaceAdvantage]

Dave,

I just fancied the way he created his oddsline based upon predicted beaten lengths. I'd never heard of that being done before (I read only one of his books -- More Basic Betting). I read his book many, many years ago (I was still a kid....cough, cough) I guess he made a lasting impression on an impressionable youth....LOL


Tom,

James Jasper wrote 2 books that I know of...they were basically how-to books about handicapping with your Apple PC using the BASIC language. He covered everything from Baseball, Football, to Dogs and Horses. There were one or two good ideas in the horse section...

I think all of his books are way out of print by now, though you could probably pick it up online if you so desired....


==PA

[anotherdave]

I see some of you have used this with Beyer ratings and HTR ratings. Do you think that this program would work well with something like feet per second? (e.g. Average pace?)

[Dave Schwartz]

PA,

>>I think all of his books are way out of print by now, though you could probably pick it up online if you so desired.... <<

Or talk Dave Schwartz out of his. <G>

Dave

[Tom]

Originally posted by anotherdave
I see some of you have used this with Beyer ratings and HTR ratings. Do you think that this program would work well with something like feet per second? (e.g. Average pace?)

I tried a few races using Average Pace, velocity rating, but they were so close together, ie 53.45 to 51.99, that the odds tended to cluster around the natural odds of the number of horses in a race. I tried i t using the decimal part only and it worked ok, but it is lot more work and you are apt to make a data input error.
53.45 = 145
53.00 = 100
52.50 = 50
etc.

I am trying Beyer numbers, now, averageing the best 2 of last 4 at similar distance and surface.

Tom

[andicap]

I presume you can only use a single number at a time, right?
In other words, you can't use 2 factors to get an odds line, say Beyer figs combined with a BRIS formula I use.
Also,
The problem again is that it comes down to using 1 paceline right?
in other words, I look at several pacelines in evaluating a horse, not just one.

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by Tom


I tried a few races using Average Pace, velocity rating, but they were so close together, ie 53.45 to 51.99, that the odds tended to cluster around the natural odds of the number of horses in a race. I tried i t using the decimal part only and it worked ok, but it is lot more work and you are apt to make a data input error.
53.45 = 145
53.00 = 100
52.50 = 50
etc.

I am trying Beyer numbers, now, averageing the best 2 of last 4 at similar distance and surface.

Tom

Thanks for the info Tom. I wonder if you just ignored the decimal 5345,
5300, 5250 etc.
Just a thought.

Dave

[Lefty]

Couldn't you use more than 1 paceline by simply adding numbers together? Best 2 last 4 beyers, add best two together and input as one number.

[Bob Harris]

Originally posted by Lefty
Couldn't you use more than 1 paceline by simply adding numbers together? Best 2 last 4 beyers, add best two together and input as one number.

Yep, that would work...one of the things I liked about it when I first read the ad copy was that you could use different ratings for different situations or for different styles of handicapping.

A speed or pace player can use his ratings, a trainer handicapper could use win %'s in a certain category (as long as you're comparing apples with apples of course) and a guy who likes to predict improvement on off tracks or turf could punch in Tomlinson or ITS breeding numbers.

The possibilities are endless I guess...there was also a post on the Netcapper website recently which suggested a way to adjust the program so you would only have to punch in ratings for your contenders instead of the entire field.

[Richard]

Is there a website where this software can be purchased?

[anotherdave]

The website is

www.netcapper.com

[Aussieplayer]

G'day Guys,

Re: Oddslines. I was surprised that lengths behind is a "different" method to you guys. In fact, I've often wondered what the common way for you guys to make odds is. Every USA work I've read either talks about "assigning percentages" going by feel etc.

Don Scott (I've mentioned before in relation to class/weight ratings) and a couple other writers influenced aussie handicappers to use your ratings to make the odds.
His ratings were expressed in kilos which had lengths behind equivalents.
I see Charles Carroll's method has lengths behind and is how he derives an odds line. He talks about a conservative line (basically linear) and aggressive (weighted to the contenders).

This is something Don Scott had done decades ago.

If anyone's interested I'll dig up the actual weighted win bet scale that he used (he used a different one for tris), but basically these days, people "find" there own scale. eg. Most aussie software sellers, ratings providers etc. who are providing an odds line look at their own software results to see what is the right kind if scale.

I reckon Dave S. and other d/b guys would be able to test this kind of stuff out.

Beyers would be a good start.

If I don't get to you before then, HAVE A GREAT NEW YEAR GUYS!!

Cheers
Aussieplayer