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Capper Al
05-26-2014, 05:21 AM
Why? To do an accurate odds line one at least would have to estimate the following factors:

Value of the horse in today's field
Racing luck
(And the big one) Will the connections be trying?


Horse's value: No doubt one can express a number on a horse's value. Will it be real? Maybe most of the time. This leaves error unaccounted for in the source selection.
Racing luck: Can't be accounted for.
Are they trying: Or maybe the horse is just starting to go out of form?

These are just some of the reasons why odds line wagering doesn't work.

But will the fudge factor cover? Let's us the accepted 50% mark up, a 3/1 horse goes off at 5/1 for example. Will this cover up sins? No. The problem is the handicapper always gets the leftovers after the public. If there is anything good about the horse, the public has first choice and bets him down leaving little for the handicapper to play with.

Does the public go wild and miss the value on some horses? Yes. But remember their intelligence rate is 33% to 38% win percent vs the good handicapper at 25% to 30%. Who would you bet on over the long run will miss the value the most? Ah yes, the handicapper.

It's best to take odds lines with a grain of salt.

lamboguy
05-26-2014, 08:31 AM
there are odds lines that are great. i used to spend $150 a month to get it and it was well worth it. the odds were based strictly on pace. if you had an overlay in that line and played them you would be a winner in the game.
the problem i had was when i played them going in the gate i was getting the overlay's, then once the gate opened the odds on my horses usually fell.

i had to go to a different system, what i do is anticipate which horses are going to get bet and which aren't after the race starts. actually has been working out fairly well.

HUSKER55
05-26-2014, 08:32 AM
the ML gives you an idea of who the likely contenders are and then you need to decide if the entry is legit.

Tom
05-26-2014, 09:33 AM
ML is useless, but HTR's AML is priceless.

Overlay
05-26-2014, 10:44 AM
It would be hard for me to put blind faith in any odds line without knowing how it was developed, even if I respected the handicapping ability of whoever developed it. However, if I had insight into how the line was made up, and agreed with the manner in which it was done (and especially if the line was based on a consistent, replicable, quantitative process, rather than on variable, race-to-race, qualitative intuition), I wouldn't hesitate to use it both as a gauge of the actual winning chances of individual horses and exotic combinations, and as a tool for optimal sizing and distribution of wagers based on the disparity between the fair odds or payoff of a horse or combination according to the line, and the actual odds or payoff established by the public.

Even if I were to change my handicapping procedure from evaluating the winning chances of each horse in the field, to narrowing a race field down by a process of elimination to the one most likely winner, I'd still want to have a reliable means of knowing whether that remaining horse's odds were offering me enough value to compensate me for the risk that I was taking in wagering on it.

ultracapper
05-26-2014, 10:51 AM
TTWAGOS is how I voted. I refer to them as a guide to how hard I should handicap the race. If in my preliminary work, I have highlighted 3 contenders, and the ML on the 3 are 8/5, 5/2, and 7/2, I probably won't work the race that hard because, if the ML maker is correct, the PT odds won't justify a very serious bet.

PaceAdvantage
05-26-2014, 10:58 AM
Odds lines are useful to those who can create ones that are accurate-enough to be profitable.

lansdale
05-26-2014, 11:34 AM
Odds lines are useful to those who can create ones that are accurate-enough to be profitable.

+1

classhandicapper
05-26-2014, 11:42 AM
Odds lines are useful to those who can create ones that are accurate-enough to be profitable.

I remember reading an interview with Charlie Munger where he was asked if Warren Buffett created any elaborate spreadsheets to help him value companies the way investment bankers and stock analysts off do. His answer was pretty interesting.

He more or less said it wasn't necessary.

If a company represents good enough value to be investment worthy, you don't need the spreadsheet with all the number crunching to determine it. It leaps off the pages at you because the price is so out of line and because you want some margin of safety before taking action anyway.

I kind of know what he means. After I handicap a race, there's a range of odds that will feel reasonable to me. Once in awhile I look at the board and something leaps out at me because it's so out of line with my thinking. That's when I want to get involved.

therussmeister
05-26-2014, 12:28 PM
Racing luck: Can't be accounted for.

Not at all true. Indeed it is easy to account for racing luck in an odds line.

ultracapper
05-26-2014, 12:31 PM
Racing luck: Can't be accounted for.

Not at all true. Indeed it is easy to account for racing luck.

To a limited extent, I agree. Not entirely, but in some instances, and to a certain degree, sometimes you can "see it coming" as you put the race together in making a betting decision.

thaskalos
05-26-2014, 02:17 PM
No matter how you slice it, gambling is a battle against the odds. You have to know the odds against you...if you hope to survive. Some winning players use odds-lines, while others trust the intuition that they've developed after years and years of (usually painful) participation in their game of choice. Some use a combination of the two. In any case...we are all trying to do the same thing; place ourselves in a favorable position against the odds. You have to KNOW the odds against you, before you can put yourself in a favorable position against them.

Those who say that an odds-line cannot account for the whims of the gambling gods, do not know what the odds-line's job really is. The odds-line doesn't tell us what will happen in the short-term; it tells us what we can expect in the long-term.

At the poker table...no "odds-line" can tell me what the next card will bring. But only by having knowledge of the odds can I hope to travel through the poker minefield...and make it safely to the other side.

raybo
05-26-2014, 02:18 PM
Odds lines are useful to those who can create ones that are accurate-enough to be profitable.

I agree with Mike, the value of a line is in its accuracy. That being said, I don't trust anyone else, and I can't make a line that is accurate enough to bet on. So, I don't use odds lines at all, at least until the day I can make one that is accurate enough to produce long term profit.

Sapio
05-26-2014, 03:48 PM
No matter how you slice it, gambling is a battle against the odds. You have to know the odds against you...if you hope to survive. Some winning players use odds-lines, while others trust the intuition that they've developed after years and years of (usually painful) participation in their game of choice. Some use a combination of the two. In any case...we are all trying to do the same thing; place ourselves in a favorable position against the odds. You have to KNOW the odds against you, before you can put yourself in a favorable position against them.

Those who say that an odds-line cannot account for the whims of the gambling gods, do not know what the odds-line's job really is. The odds-line doesn't tell us what will happen in the short-term; it tells us what we can expect in the long-term.

At the poker table...no "odds-line" can tell me what the next card will bring. But only by having knowledge of the odds can I hope to travel through the poker minefield...and make it safely to the other
side.

Hi thaskalos

It is all about odds. Phil Galfond's rise in the game can be attributed to his knowledge of logic and Bayesian probability and he is not alone.

Thomas Sapio

thaskalos
05-26-2014, 04:20 PM
Hi thaskalos

It is all about odds. Phil Galfond's rise in the game can be attributed to his knowledge of logic and Bayesian probability and he is not alone.

Thomas Sapio
Galfond is no mere mortal when it comes to poker...so we may not all be able to climb to the heights that he has -- no matter HOW proficient we get in "logic and Bayesian probability". But we can all IMPROVE OUR GAME...and that's what really counts in the end.

I was never a "math guy"...and for too long, I took pride in being a "play-by-the seat-of-my-pants" type of player. But I had to improve my math skills...because I noticed that the "intuitive" players were becoming extinct. :)

Capper Al
05-26-2014, 06:38 PM
Let's say we have a horse we believe is worth 3/1 odds (prob 1/4). Let's say we use a 50% fudge factor, prob 1/6 or 5/1 odd. But now just consider if the connections are going to try today. This happens a lot. May we say a prob 1/4 that they won't try today. If we were right with odds of 3/1, now we must factor this in, prob 3/4 (he'll run) * 1/4 (his assumed value) equals 3/16 or about 5.33/1. We out ran our fudge factor on this alone.

And given the who made the odds line does really work either. That's a tautological argument saying if he's good he's good. Nothing is proven by this. Some line makers do excellent jobs picking winners. But making money on these odds lines is next to impossible because of the necessary fudge factors and getting the odds leftover from the best handicapper, the public.

Overlay
05-26-2014, 07:27 PM
Let's say we have a horse we believe is worth 3/1 odds (prob 1/4). Let's say we use a 50% fudge factor, prob 1/6 or 5/1 odd. But now just consider if the connections are going to try today. This happens a lot. May we say a prob 1/4 that they won't try today. If we were right with odds of 3/1, now we must factor this in, prob 3/4 (he'll run) * 1/4 (his assumed value) equals 3/16 or about 5.33/1. We out ran our fudge factor on this alone.

And given the who made the odds line does really work either. That's a tautological argument saying if he's good he's good. Nothing is proven by this. Some line makers do excellent jobs picking winners. But making money on these odds lines is next to impossible because of the necessary fudge factors and getting the odds leftover from the best handicapper, the public.
Yes, the public is more collectively accurate than any individual handicapper at setting odds on a cumulative, race-in/race-out basis. But that doesn't mean that it is not also capable of regularly making significant misjudgments about individual horses or combinations of horses in specific races on any given day.

Even though the public does indeed get the "first crack" at setting a horse's odds, leaving only the "leftovers" (as you put it) for handicappers, the handicapper (unlike the public) is not obligated to bet on any given race, but can wait until one of those misjudgments by the public offers a sufficient return to compensate the handicapper for the risk of challenging the public's collective wisdom. And a fair-odds line is one of the means that a handicapper can use in making those go/no-go betting decisions.

cashmachine
05-26-2014, 07:32 PM
Indeed it is easy to account for racing luck in an odds line.
How do you do that?

Sapio
05-27-2014, 09:29 AM
Not all odds lines are created equally, nor do they serve the same goal.

One of the most interesting comments I read on this board was TM's post on oddslines.

TM suggested that "odds smoothing" as done by the most is not necessarily the best approach, if the goal is to maximize profits. TM instead suggested setting an odds term as the opposite of public confidence (as suggested by tote odds). By doing so, we are looking for those horse we have a high confidence of winning that will also pay high odds with a low public confidence of winning.

Thomas Sapio

Capper Al
05-27-2014, 11:14 AM
Not all odds lines are created equally, nor do they serve the same goal.

One of the most interesting comments I read on this board was TM's post on oddslines.

TM suggested that "odds smoothing" as done by the most is not necessarily the best approach, if the goal is to maximize profits. TM instead suggested setting an odds term as the opposite of public confidence (as suggested by tote odds). By doing so, we are looking for those horse we have a high confidence of winning that will also pay high odds with a low public confidence of winning.

Thomas Sapio

Those who love their morning lines will claim that they are doing this. The idea of confidence in a statistical sense is not a bad one to play around with. The public's confidence is expressed in the tote board.

raybo
05-27-2014, 11:42 AM
Not all odds lines are created equally, nor do they serve the same goal.

One of the most interesting comments I read on this board was TM's post on oddslines.

TM suggested that "odds smoothing" as done by the most is not necessarily the best approach, if the goal is to maximize profits. TM instead suggested setting an odds term as the opposite of public confidence (as suggested by tote odds). By doing so, we are looking for those horse we have a high confidence of winning that will also pay high odds with a low public confidence of winning.

Thomas Sapio

Can you provide a real world example of what that would look like?

Capper Al
05-27-2014, 12:44 PM
Doesn't the DRF make their own odds line? It's been a while since I played around there. If not, there are plenty of odds lines available especially with software products that produce their own.

raybo
05-27-2014, 12:55 PM
Doesn't the DRF make their own odds line? It's been a while since I played around there. If not, there are plenty of odds lines available especially with software products that produce their own.

I was only referring to Sapio's/TM's subject specifically.

dannyhill
05-27-2014, 01:10 PM
Odds lines will vary drastically between players depending upon what factors are considered. An odds line that is tilted towards previous trips will be very different than one based upon speed figures, yet they both can be profitably.

Tall One
05-27-2014, 02:37 PM
I agree with Mike, the value of a line is in its accuracy. That being said, I don't trust anyone else, and I can't make a line that is accurate enough to bet on. So, I don't use odds lines at all, at least until the day I can make one that is accurate enough to produce long term profit.



Exactly..while it is interesting too see what one guy's opinion is of how the race will be bet, i don't let it effect me...at all.

If the public is ignoring my horse at 15-1 I'm loving life, and not concerned about the masses not being in agreement. :cool:

Dark Horse
05-27-2014, 08:20 PM
The odds in horse racing are presented in such a way that people can't really recognize the value. The only way to cut through that fog is to program the necessary calculations. These calculations are pretty basic. No rocket science. I programmed the different elements of the lines question into my program. That way you only have to think it all the way through just once, instead of for every race. The program calculates my line and my overlay. I don't see how value could be recognized otherwise.

Poindexter
05-27-2014, 09:15 PM
An odds line is basically a mathematical assessment of your opinion. Theoretically every one makes an odds line in one way or another. You love the 3 in the 3rd race. Do you love him at 1-9(well maybe not), 3-5, sound about right, but maybe you will just key him in pick 3's, trifectas and exactas, or 6-5 HELLO, TIME TO UNLOAD. You just made an odds line. The difference between what you did and what someone who actually make an odds line does, is you just have a feel for what a horse you really like should pay(might be right, might be wrong, just like the person who makes an oddsline), where as someone creating an odds line has to go through each horse and say 1 is 15-1 and 2 is 20-1 and 3 is 6-1.....and this line needs to be set to 100% probability. Anyone who makes odds lines knows that there are many times that you put down your price add every thing up and come up with 120% and not 100%(at least back when they had field sizes of over 10). Now it is time to adjust upwards across the board. Now look how off you were and there would have been to be a lot of perceived value in that race that was not really there. Making an odds line also forces you to really look at every horse. You have to assign a fair price. In doing so you will see things you might not have seen when you just drew a line through him at initial inspection. Now I understand it doesn't work for a lot of people and they do better without one, and for them I can only suggest keep doing what works. It seems that it is a challenge for many to identify whether the 7 should be 18-1 fair value, 25-1 value or 50-1 fair value(this makes no sense to me because it is no different skill set than saying your top choice is worth 2-1 or 5-2. So either it is a skill you work on and improve, or you give it up and look for another approach. There are many horses that require too much guess work. You may label him a 15-1 shot(was once good, 8 month layoff...), but when you see him at 34-1 as they are approaching the gate, you realize that maybe you should have made him 30-1 or even 50-1. However if he opens at 3-1 and is 9/2 as they are approaching the gate, time to adjust your line the other way. These situations create inaccuracies, but these inaccuracies can be fixed. You can use a spreadsheet to change your line on certain horses you made a mistake on and fix your line on the rest. Your not selling your odds line. Your not publishing it on the web. Your simply giving your opinion on each horse for yourself to see and for yourself to identify value (you don't even have to only bet value if that is your issue-focus on top contenders that are not undervalued). If your top choice that you made 2-1 is 6/5, probably not a great bet keying him in the exotics, but if his is 9/5 or 2-1, nothing wrong with it(you can extract the value in the exotics hopefully).

raybo
05-27-2014, 09:33 PM
The odds in horse racing are presented in such a way that people can't really recognize the value. The only way to cut through that fog is to program the necessary calculations. These calculations are pretty basic. No rocket science. I programmed the different elements of the lines question into my program. That way you only have to think it all the way through just once, instead of for every race. The program calculates my line and my overlay. I don't see how value could be recognized otherwise.

That's fine, as long as you can program, exactly, the handicapping calculations and steps, for each and every type of race you encounter, or like to play. However, if you are like me, I do not always use the same exact steps or calculations, or factors, for each and every race type that I play. If, for example, you only used the Prime Power number, then creating an odds line would be a snap, or if you only use the last speed figure or best speed figure, or best 2 of the last 4, etc., again that would be a snap. Unfortunately, the way I attack races can vary almost infinitely, depending on the type of race it is.

I have never found a combination of factors to adequately address a "good" odds line. And I have never been able to program a decision tree that is complex enough to encompass every possible race type that I play. It just gets too complex.

fmolf
05-27-2014, 09:52 PM
An odds line is basically a mathematical assessment of your opinion. Theoretically every one makes an odds line in one way or another. You love the 3 in the 3rd race. Do you love him at 1-9(well maybe not), 3-5, sound about right, but maybe you will just key him in pick 3's, trifectas and exactas, or 6-5 HELLO, TIME TO UNLOAD. You just made an odds line. The difference between what you did and what someone who actually make an odds line does, is you just have a feel for what a horse you really like should pay(might be right, might be wrong, just like the person who makes an oddsline), where as someone creating an odds line has to go through each horse and say 1 is 15-1 and 2 is 20-1 and 3 is 6-1.....and this line needs to be set to 100% probability. Anyone who makes odds lines knows that there are many times that you put down your price add every thing up and come up with 120% and not 100%(at least back when they had field sizes of over 10). Now it is time to adjust upwards across the board. Now look how off you were and there would have been to be a lot of perceived value in that race that was not really there. Making an odds line also forces you to really look at every horse. You have to assign a fair price. In doing so you will see things you might not have seen when you just drew a line through him at initial inspection. Now I understand it doesn't work for a lot of people and they do better without one, and for them I can only suggest keep doing what works. It seems that it is a challenge for many to identify whether the 7 should be 18-1 fair value, 25-1 value or 50-1 fair value(this makes no sense to me because it is no different skill set than saying your top choice is worth 2-1 or 5-2. So either it is a skill you work on and improve, or you give it up and look for another approach. There are many horses that require too much guess work. You may label him a 15-1 shot(was once good, 8 month layoff...), but when you see him at 34-1 as they are approaching the gate, you realize that maybe you should have made him 30-1 or even 50-1. However if he opens at 3-1 and is 9/2 as they are approaching the gate, time to adjust your line the other way. These situations create inaccuracies, but these inaccuracies can be fixed. You can use a spreadsheet to change your line on certain horses you made a mistake on and fix your line on the rest. Your not selling your odds line. Your not publishing it on the web. Your simply giving your opinion on each horse for yourself to see and for yourself to identify value (you don't even have to only bet value if that is your issue-focus on top contenders that are not undervalued). If your top choice that you made 2-1 is 6/5, probably not a great bet keying him in the exotics, but if his is 9/5 or 2-1, nothing wrong with it(you can extract the value in the exotics hopefully).
totally agree ... i just have a sense of what odds i would play my contenders.Sometimes when odds are right i'll make 2 win bets.Usually i need 8/5 or better otherwise i pass when i feel the favorite is legit

cashmachine
05-28-2014, 06:15 AM
I have never found a combination of factors to adequately address a "good" odds line. And I have never been able to program a decision tree that is complex enough to encompass every possible race type that I play. It just gets too complex.
If you distinguish so many types of races and approach every type differently, how do you estimate you success for every type? It takes quite a few bets to get statistically significant estimate.

Capper Al
05-28-2014, 09:44 AM
Let's look at what the odds lines are good for.

1. Ordering your selections
2. Expressing the selections in an opinionated way numerically.
3. Understanding what the public might think.
4. Indicating that a horse deserves a second look if the tote odds are too high or too low.

That's all I can thing of.

cashmachine
05-28-2014, 09:55 AM
5) Computing whether horse is overlay or not (given probability of win)

banacek
05-28-2014, 10:19 AM
3. Understanding what the public might think.


For me, not in the least. It is to clarify what I think about a race, so when I look at what the public thinks, I have a clear idea how whether to bet the race and, if so, how.

raybo
05-28-2014, 11:33 AM
If you distinguish so many types of races and approach every type differently, how do you estimate you success for every type? It takes quite a few bets to get statistically significant estimate.

Track testing and record keeping and over 35 years of experience, including 20+ consecutive years of study without betting. And of course, my bottom line.

Capper Al
05-28-2014, 11:36 AM
5) Computing whether horse is overlay or not (given probability of win)

This is where they are worthless for me and why I said you have to take them with a grain of salt. Suppose your friend says that he is an antique collector of vases. And suppose that 3 out of 4 times he gets tricked into buying a counterfeit. This would mean that he was only right about 1 out of 4 times about finding an antique just like our average handicapper. Now you are strolling through the market with this friend and come upon a vase selling for $20.00. He says it's worth $50.00. Would you buy it? And that is what using an odds line to find value is like.

banacek
05-28-2014, 11:43 AM
This is where they are worthless for me and why I said you have to take them with a grain of salt. Suppose your friend says that he is an antique collector of vases. And suppose that 3 out of 4 times he gets tricked into buying a counterfeit. This would mean that he was only right about 1 out of 4 times about finding an antique just like our average handicapper. Now you are strolling through the market with this friend and come upon a vase selling for $20.00. He says it's worth $50.00. Would you buy it? And that is what using an odds line to find value is like.

No because there is a 25% chance it is worth $50, so I would only buy it if I was getting more than 3-1 ($80) Your friend is only offering me 3-2.

Would I bet a horse that has a probability of 25% and is paying $5? No.

Capper Al
05-28-2014, 08:16 PM
No because there is a 25% chance it is worth $50, so I would only buy it if I was getting more than 3-1 ($80) Your friend is only offering me 3-2.

Would I bet a horse that has a probability of 25% and is paying $5? No.

Here's how people lose money. Ignore the fact he valued the vase at $50 which would have been a loss with his strike rate. Let's say he thought it was worth $120. The math you applied suggests a profit. But in reality the stated premise assumes he can accurately predict an antique only 25% of the time. What makes us think he can predict value any better?

banacek
05-28-2014, 08:48 PM
Here's how people lose money. Ignore the fact he valued the vase at $50 which would have been a loss with his strike rate. Let's say he thought it was worth $120. The math you applied suggests a profit. But in reality the stated premise assumes he can accurately predict an antique only 25% of the time. What makes us think he can predict value any better?

I can't answer that any better than raybo did a couple of posts back...experience. I set poor odds line 15 years ago...now mine are very good...and my longterm analysis of my lines supports that or I wouldn't use them anymore. Also I don't have to predict the odds..they are right there to see..only have to be good at the probability..that is a tough thing to do, but it is possible.

Magister Ludi
05-28-2014, 09:48 PM
1. Val and Wynn bid at online penny auctions.

2. Wynn is a “power bidder”.

3. Wynn’s strategy is “tag and defend”. That is, Wynn will bid on an item at the beginning of an auction to “tag” it as his and aggressively bid throughout the auction to defend “his” item that he’s tagged.

4. Wynn frequently gets caught up in the heat of bidding and, on the average, pays more than market value for the items on which he has bid.

5. Val is a “jumper”.

6. Val strategy is to simultaneously watch multiple auctions.

7. Val sets his autobidder program to automatically "jump in" late in an auction and place a bid on any undervalued item at 300 ms to auction expiration.

8. Wynn loves to “stomp” the bids of jumpers like Val. Wynn will cheerfully pay more than an item is worth just for the exhilaration of winning an auction and to prove to people like Val that winning at any cost is the most important goal.

9. As the auction price of an item approaches fair market value, Val extricates himself from the clutches of Wynn and his ilk and jumps in on the auction of another undervalued item.

dannyhill
05-28-2014, 10:46 PM
Guess i should watch that show auction hunters.

Capper Al
05-29-2014, 01:51 PM
I can't answer that any better than raybo did a couple of posts back...experience. I set poor odds line 15 years ago...now mine are very good...and my longterm analysis of my lines supports that or I wouldn't use them anymore. Also I don't have to predict the odds..they are right there to see..only have to be good at the probability..that is a tough thing to do, but it is possible.

Good for you. I'm guessing but you might know what value looks like and not follow a strict math made line?

banacek
05-29-2014, 01:59 PM
Good for you. I'm guessing but you might know what value looks like and not follow a strict math made line?

Actually I do make up a strict mathematical line and my results have improved significantly (now that I am pretty good at doing it). When I didn't make up a line, I would look at a horse and say...7-1 on that horse is a great bet...basically doing a line in my head. But my emotions sometimes took over and all of a sudden it was 5-2 on that horse is a great bet..when it wasn't....especially during a streak (winning or losing).

Some people can do it without letting their emotions take over...not me. By putting the line down on paper, I have more structure and that has increased my confidence and results.

Sapio
05-29-2014, 02:33 PM
This is where they are worthless for me and why I said you have to take them with a grain of salt. Suppose your friend says that he is an antique collector of vases. And suppose that 3 out of 4 times he gets tricked into buying a counterfeit. This would mean that he was only right about 1 out of 4 times about finding an antique just like our average handicapper. Now you are strolling through the market with this friend and come upon a vase selling for $20.00. He says it's worth $50.00. Would you buy it? And that is what using an odds line to find value is like.

Hi Capper Al

According to my friend (TM), you need look no further than what JCapper (Jeff Platt) is able to accomplish with his JRating using agents (different handicapping schools). TM estimates that Jeff can essentially breakeven playing all tracks, all distances, and all surfaces. Each agent is essentally a probability line. Agents are aggregated to form a final line (or ranking). Mind this accomplished without any conditioning or optimization.

TM estimates that with proper conditioning and optimization (will not speculate on conditioning or optimization) an additional 30 -50% roi is not unreasonable (conditioned on number plays and tracks).

Do really believe this would be possible without accurate probability lines (oddslines)?

Thomas Sapio

Sapio
05-29-2014, 02:36 PM
1. Val and Wynn bid at online penny auctions.

2. Wynn is a “power bidder”.

3. Wynn’s strategy is “tag and defend”. That is, Wynn will bid on an item at the beginning of an auction to “tag” it as his and aggressively bid throughout the auction to defend “his” item that he’s tagged.

4. Wynn frequently gets caught up in the heat of bidding and, on the average, pays more than market value for the items on which he has bid.

5. Val is a “jumper”.

6. Val strategy is to simultaneously watch multiple auctions.

7. Val sets his autobidder program to automatically "jump in" late in an auction and place a bid on any undervalued item at 300 ms to auction expiration.

8. Wynn loves to “stomp” the bids of jumpers like Val. Wynn will cheerfully pay more than an item is worth just for the exhilaration of winning an auction and to prove to people like Val that winning at any cost is the most important goal.

9. As the auction price of an item approaches fair market value, Val extricates himself from the clutches of Wynn and his ilk and jumps in on the auction of another undervalued item.


Hi Magister Ludi

I like it.

Thomas Sapio

GaryG
05-29-2014, 02:46 PM
I attended a Barry Meadow seminar at Del Mar in the early 90s. One thing I learned from him is that you can massage your line. You might have a horse at 4-1 and think "you know, I like him more than that". Then you can make him 3-1 and adjust the others proportionally. I saw him bet $500 on a 3-2 shot with a cold exacta because he believed he should have been 4-5. If you don't have the ability to create an accurate odds line fuhgedaboudit, The Morning Line is worthless.

Overlay
05-29-2014, 03:36 PM
Let's look at what the odds lines are good for.

1. Ordering your selections
2. Expressing the selections in an opinionated way numerically.
3. Understanding what the public might think.
4. Indicating that a horse deserves a second look if the tote odds are too high or too low.

That's all I can think of.
5) Computing whether horse is overlay or not (given probability of win)
6. Determining the optimum size and distribution of win bets or exotic wagers based on the disparity between your assessment and the public's (that is, the degree to which a horse, a group of horses, or a multi-horse exotic combination is overlaid in comparison to your line).

Sapio
05-29-2014, 06:18 PM
6. Determining the optimum size and distribution of win bets or exotic wagers based on the disparity between your assessment and the public's (that is, the degree to which a horse, a group of horses, or a multi-horse exotic combination is overlaid in comparison to your line).

7. Allowing the data to speak for itself in a systematic manner.

thaskalos
05-30-2014, 12:55 AM
7. Allowing the data to speak for itself in a systematic manner.

8. Instilling discipline into your game by keeping you from chasing your losses, by convincing yourself that wagers are better than they really are. There is a tendency for us to press when we are losing, in an effort to get even in a hurry...and we often look for excuses to play some marginal horses that we would never bet on when we are ahead. With an odds line, there is no ambiguity. A bet is either a sound wager...or it isn't.

JoeLong
05-30-2014, 01:24 PM
What really matters is... Your own odds line.

From even money out to about 6/1 do your odds line mimic reality? For instance do your 4/1 shots win about 20% of their races, do the horses you peg at 25% probability win at around 3/1. Do your even money horses win about half their races? If so you have a workable odds-line which can be used to exploit the win pool.

It would be an achievement beyond current computing to solve the handicapping dilemma in a match duel, let alone running against multiple contenders, so that rules out game theory and leaves us with exploitation as the only method to beat the para-mutuals.

Handicapping is a zero-sum game, to win someone else has to lose, that being the case the only way to beat that type of game is with an edge which leads to a dynamic that requires the player to be risk adverse. The only way I know of being risk adverse is to have some notion of the odds being offered. No?

traynor
05-30-2014, 04:07 PM
What really matters is... Your own odds line.

From even money out to about 6/1 do your odds line mimic reality? For instance do your 4/1 shots win about 20% of their races, do the horses you peg at 25% probability win at around 3/1. Do your even money horses win about half their races? If so you have a workable odds-line which can be used to exploit the win pool.

It would be an achievement beyond current computing to solve the handicapping dilemma in a match duel, let alone running against multiple contenders, so that rules out game theory and leaves us with exploitation as the only method to beat the para-mutuals.

Handicapping is a zero-sum game, to win someone else has to lose, that being the case the only way to beat that type of game is with an edge which leads to a dynamic that requires the player to be risk adverse. The only way I know of being risk adverse is to have some notion of the odds being offered. No?

I don't understand. What other than relative probability of winning would be used to construct an odds line?

AndyC
05-30-2014, 04:08 PM
Handicapping is a zero-sum game.......

We should all be so lucky. Horse racing is actually a negative sum game.

JoeLong
05-30-2014, 04:26 PM
I don't understand. What other than relative probability of winning would be used to construct an odds line?

Well for games which can be solved the best way to play is game theory optimal GTO which of course incorporates probability, but since horse racing isn't solvable the next best thing is to exploit any perceived weakness above your break even expectation EV.

ultracapper
06-04-2014, 05:34 PM
Well for games which can be solved the best way to play is game theory optimal GTO which of course incorporates probability, but since horse racing isn't solvable the next best thing is to exploit any perceived weakness above your break even expectation EV.

Are you implying that no horse race is solvable?

ultracapper
06-04-2014, 05:37 PM
I don't understand. What other than relative probability of winning would be used to construct an odds line?

ML makers construct odds lines based on where the money is expected to go. Winning probability should not be a factor at all. How will the public bet? That is the ML maker's job to anticipate.

Sapio
06-04-2014, 05:53 PM
ML makers construct odds lines based on where the money is expected to go. Winning probability should not be a factor at all. How will the public bet? That is the ML maker's job to anticipate.

Hi ultracapper

That is what is said and believed by many, but I highly doubt that is what they do. They are not that analytical.

Thomas Sapio

ultracapper
06-04-2014, 06:04 PM
I've never really tried, but I don't think it would be all that difficult to make a fairly accurate ML. High Beyers, lots of 1s and 2s in running lines, connections, annual and lifetime records, bullet and other fast works, class, these are the things that handicappers weigh heavily and attract money. You got Jon White telling us about some subtle trouble a horse had in his previous race as his reason for making a horse a ML fav drives me crazy.

misscashalot
06-04-2014, 07:52 PM
finding anomalies using track ml in conjunction with place odds work well.
follow the $ ... the board speaks volumes using morning lines.

traynor
06-04-2014, 09:57 PM
ML makers construct odds lines based on where the money is expected to go. Winning probability should not be a factor at all. How will the public bet? That is the ML maker's job to anticipate.

What does a morning line have to do with an odds line for wagering? Two very different concepts.

I understand that some believe a morning line can be tweaked with arcane algorithms to become more predictive. The kindest thing I can say about that is that I don't believe it is especially useful. That is not a spurious comment.

traynor
06-04-2014, 10:02 PM
An odds line (used for wagering) "should" be based on empirical data indicating the relative probability of each entry winning (or placing) in that specific race. Pretty simple stuff in theory, but not so easy in practice.

In fact, "empirical data indicating the relative probability of each entry winning (or placing) in that specific race" may well be the most valuable piece of information a serious bettor can have.

ezpace
06-07-2014, 09:47 AM
algo = last race finish position(within45 days and3min odds today.. compare

Sea Biscuit
06-08-2014, 07:58 PM
ML makers construct odds lines based on where the money is expected to go. Winning probability should not be a factor at all. How will the public bet? That is the ML maker's job to anticipate.

Congrats Ultracapper You are the only one who got it right.

Contrary to popular belief, a ML is not the track handicappers picks most likely to win the race but merely to predict how the public will wager on a particular horse come post time.

Ed Burgart, Los Alamitos announcer and ML maker explains how it is done.

http://www.aqha.com/Racing/Content-Pages/Racing-and-Wagering/Q-Racing-Aces-and-Handicapping-Information/The-Morning-Line.aspx

I ignore the ML all together and make my own odds line for each horse based on their chances of winning the race.


Supposing you have determined a particular horse, based on your handicapping principles, has a 50% chance of winning the race his true odds should be: 100/50=2-1 (the 1 is a constant here)=1. His true odds should be even money. 5/2 or 3-1 should be a good overlay price for the said horse.

Supposing you have a horse with a 95% chance of winning the race, his true odds should be 100/95=1.05-1=.05. His true odds should be 5 cents on the dollar and come post time the racing Gods are smiling at you and he is going off at even money which is 20 times your odds line, knock down little old ladies in the line and place your bet.

If your 5 cent special ends up the track, its back to the drawing board for you.

Good luck.












(http://www.aqha.com/Racing/Content-Pages/Racing-and-Wagering/Q-Racing-Aces-and-Handicapping-Information/The-Morning-Line.aspx)

scottyloo
06-09-2014, 11:58 AM
Anybody who is making money (long-term and consistently, day-in-day-out) at betting races is using some kind of personal odds, whether they know it or not, aren't they? There doesn't seem to be any mathematical way around it. Even if you made a deal at the crossroads and Beezlebub is whispering winners into your ears, and he's mostly right, and you're making a profit, there's some kind of mathematical relationship reflecting value there. Maybe you can't quantify it in a number at the time, but it must be there. (although if you keep records, you could reverse quantify it based on your return, and then actually quantify it in the future--"the voice in my head produces runners with a 20% advantage").

raybo
06-09-2014, 12:58 PM
Anybody who is making money (long-term and consistently, day-in-day-out) at betting races is using some kind of personal odds, whether they know it or not, aren't they? There doesn't seem to be any mathematical way around it. Even if you made a deal at the crossroads and Beezlebub is whispering winners into your ears, and he's mostly right, and you're making a profit, there's some kind of mathematical relationship reflecting value there. Maybe you can't quantify it in a number at the time, but it must be there. (although if you keep records, you could reverse quantify it based on your return, and then actually quantify it in the future--"the voice in my head produces runners with a 20% advantage").

I agree, there almost has to be some kind of odds determination of value, and almost has to be value in the equation for profitability. I personally do not use an odds line, but I test each track and find the sweet spot for my minimum odds requirement. Different approach, but still with value demands involved.

RXB2
06-09-2014, 01:32 PM
Problems with the old set-a-line-then-bet-the-overlay(s) approach:

1. Typically too optimistic that one's own line is right and the public's is wrong;
2. So much of the money comes in just before the bell that the odds fluctuate hugely, especially at tracks with medium or small betting handles. Lots of times the "overlay" has vanished when all of the betting is completed.

Overlay
06-09-2014, 02:20 PM
Problems with the old set-a-line-then-bet-the-overlay(s) approach:

1. Typically too optimistic that one's own line is right and the public's is wrong;
2. So much of the money comes in just before the bell that the odds fluctuate hugely, especially at tracks with medium or small betting handles. Lots of times the "overlay" has vanished when all of the betting is completed.
Welcome to the board.

Over-optimism can be addressed by basing lines on statistical or other quantitative data, rather than subjective opinion.

Last-flash odds changes are an acknowledged possibility, but they can be mitigated by maintaining a full-field perspective of winning chances (rather than focusing solely on narrowing a field down to the one horse that's most likely to win) in order to detect betting value in all odds ranges (since every late dropper will cause the odds on other entrants -- including horses that were already overlays -- to rise even higher), or by considering exotic-wager value in addition to the win pool.

Aside from the above points, what would you suggest as an alternative to "set-a-line-then-bet-the-overlay(s)" in order to assure that you're getting the better of the odds?

RXB2
06-09-2014, 02:33 PM
Welcome to the board.

Over-optimism can be addressed by basing lines on statistical or other quantitative data, rather than subjective opinion.

Last-flash odds changes are an acknowledged possibility, but they can be mitigated by maintaining a full-field perspective of winning chances in order to detect betting value in all odds ranges (since every late dropper will cause odds on other entrants -- including horses that were already overlays -- to rise even higher), or by considering exotic-wager value in addition to the win pool.

Aside from the above points, what would you suggest as an alternative to "set-a-line-and-bet-the-overlay" in order to assure that you were getting the better of the odds?

It's actually my ten-year anniversary on the board this very month; I just had to create a slightly revised user name due to a password issue (or better said, a memory & common sense issue).

Late odds changes can't be mitigated when the money pours during in the final milliseconds, after you've made your bet.

I find that "if it feels good, do it" works better for me than any hard mathematical odds-line derivations. It helps to have a good understanding of the types of horses that tend to get bet late, too.

Overlay
06-09-2014, 02:44 PM
Late odds changes can't be mitigated when the money pours during in the final milliseconds, after you've made your bet.
Sorry for not connecting the dots on your user name. :)

I agree that it's too late to bet by then. The point that I was trying to make was that the last-flash odds drops will cause other horses in the field (aside from the late dropper(s)) that you may have already bet because they were already overlaid to begin with (as long as you were maintaining visibility of the chances of each horse in the field) to offer even greater value than they were before (unless one assumes that the late odds-drop is a 100% guarantee of victory).

PaceAdvantage
06-09-2014, 02:57 PM
It's actually my ten-year anniversary on the board this very month; I just had to create a slightly revised user name due to a password issue (or better said, a memory & common sense issue).

Late odds changes can't be mitigated when the money pours during in the final milliseconds, after you've made your bet.

I find that "if it feels good, do it" works better for me than any hard mathematical odds-line derivations. It helps to have a good understanding of the types of horses that tend to get bet late, too.If you want your old name back (I would actually prefer it if you went back to the original name), I can easily get it up and running for you...with any password of your choosing, and an updated email address if you need that.

Just send me a private message with the info...

RXB
06-09-2014, 03:55 PM
Sorry for not connecting the dots on your user name. :)

I agree that it's too late to bet by then. The point that I was trying to make was that the last-flash odds drops will cause other horses in the field (aside from the late dropper(s)) that you may have already bet because they were already overlaid to begin with (as long as you were maintaining visibility of the chances of each horse in the field) to offer even greater value than they were before (unless one assumes that the late odds-drop is a 100% guarantee of victory).

I am back in my original incarnation, thanks PA.

The odds tend to drop late most often on:
-- Low-odds horses (except heavy odds-on, 1/2 or less at the gate types)
-- High-figure horses (which are usually low odds)
-- Legit overlays (you ain't the only one that sees it)

So if the public has a horse at 3/1 loading into the gate and you label it as having a 30% chance of winning, there are two things to consider before you deem it a 20+% overlay and bet accordingly:

1. You might be wrong in your estimate;
2. If you are right, there's a fair chance that other sharpies will have the same opinion and knock down the odds, sometimes precipitously.

There's a lot of variance and potential for error that isn't dealt with in a fixed-point probability estimate that claims Horse A has 37% probability, Horse B 21%, Horse C 14%, etc.

RXB
06-09-2014, 04:23 PM
As an aside, I just opened a Twitter account and I could use some followers to get it rolling. @RoutesOnTurf

Dark Horse
06-09-2014, 08:01 PM
Morning lines can be used to one's advantage. I don't always follow my own advice, but I'm most successful when I begin the handicapping process with all the horses at odds lower than 2/1 for the entire card, for the purpose of identifying toss outs. The public will almost always bet down the big favorites, meaning that the other horses gain in value. So by first identifying the positive playing fields in the card, I open the door to working little for a large return, rather than working hard for, at best, a marginal return.

JackS
06-11-2014, 01:55 AM
How many times have you seen a ML at a major track that you believe to be reasonable a majority of the time and the ML on a 20-1 that you believe should be 40-1 going off at 6-1?
I would suggest that you not play this race and it makes no difference weather this horse wins or runs up the track there is something funny going on.

JackS
06-11-2014, 02:11 AM
One caveat on my above post. If you happen to follow trainer moves and this trainer has pulled off wins with similar moves, then you may have a possible play.
Personally I still don't like it. Decide for yourself. The horse still has a good chance of not hitting the board and if he does, you've literally been robbed.

JeffH
06-26-2017, 11:09 PM
I know this post is a few years old; but I was searching for odds line creation and decided to chime in. I know what the odds line is supposed to do-handicap the public. But let's be honest, you really can't do that without doing your own handicapping. How does the odds maker make 1 first time starter 5-2 while 3 others are 8-1, 12-1, and 20-1? The public isn't going to know because there's nothing to go on. He has to be going on his own information. It is my conclusion that he is actually handicapping the race. In all honesty, it it the only way he could possibly predict where the money should go in the first place. And doesn't 1 of the top 5 ML horses win close to 90% of the time?

thaskalos
06-27-2017, 03:46 AM
I know this post is a few years old; but I was searching for odds line creation and decided to chime in. I know what the odds line is supposed to do-handicap the public. But let's be honest, you really can't do that without doing your own handicapping. How does the odds maker make 1 first time starter 5-2 while 3 others are 8-1, 12-1, and 20-1? The public isn't going to know because there's nothing to go on. He has to be going on his own information. It is my conclusion that he is actually handicapping the race. In all honesty, it it the only way he could possibly predict where the money should go in the first place. And doesn't 1 of the top 5 ML horses win close to 90% of the time?

IMO...it makes no difference whether the line-maker is actually handicapping the race, or not. For every ONE decent morning-line oddsmaker...there are FIFTEEN who couldn't handicap their way out of a soaked paper bag.

lamboguy
06-27-2017, 05:20 AM
i played a race last night at the Mountain. the horse opens up at 1-9 on the board.

the race breaks and the horse shows 2-5, he goes 5 on top and crosses the wire first and pays $4.80 for win.

i don't know what good an odds line does for cases like this that seem to come up occasionally.


personally when i am at the top of my game i am betting first time starters that i know have ability and will come from somewhere other than busting out of the gate on top. i find that most of the time the final odds goes up on the very last flash on these horses.

winning in this game is all about getting value for your money. you can be the very best handicapper and race picker and hardly ever get the right values unless you are able to lock in odds.

thaskalos
06-27-2017, 05:49 AM
We can't hope to get "value" on every wager in today's game...because the late betting action will go against us more times than not. The most we can hope for is that our handicapping methods have "collective value"...which will allow us to be profitable over time. And this is getting more and more difficult to do...there is no doubt about that.

Elliott Sidewater
06-27-2017, 06:57 AM
Totally on point, what good will an odds line do you when the 1/9 shot, who by the way opened with an "in your face" $5000 win bet into a $186 win pool, will go up to 7-5 after the bell, and the runner up, who was 2-1 or 5-2 at post closes as the 4-5 favorite? I'll tell you what good it's good for: absolutely nothing, just as Edwin Starr sang. Not that this happens every half hour, but it happens enough as to reduce the effectiveness of pre-race odds lines used for betting.

SOMEWHAT.

Nor should we assume, as I'm certain some will claim, that we can predict in advance when these dramatic odds shifts can or will happen at places like Mountaineer. If Andy Beyer was to update his chapter on the Great Barrington Fair (Parsley, Sage Rosemary, and Crime) for the modern betting era, the chapter might be titled "Mountaineer: men, machines, and masochists".

A bookie once gave me the following advice:

"Don't play rock- paper- scissors with guys who are smarter or richer than you".

lamboguy
06-27-2017, 08:13 AM
basically as far as i am concerned the game has passed my bye and i am way over my head trying to battle this game 365 days a year.

but i have to give strong credit to The Little Guy and Moutainman who actually go at it in their respective venues and produce plenty of winners and have net winning meets picking every single race.

Elliott Sidewater
06-27-2017, 09:49 AM
Lambo: I'm sorry to hear that, but you know that someone famous, in the movie Magnum Force, said "a man has to know his limitations". I have had similar feelings, and my frequency of play has dropped way off gradually during the past 3-4 years. Back in the good old days, if you had a losing day at the track, it was on you. With the out of control after the bell pool reconciliation, that's not as true as it used to be. Today, a good bet can often only be determined after the race is over, and too often, the 8-5 shot you bet with a 40% chance to win finishes 3rd at 4-5. When compared with the stock market, what racing lost in respectability as a gambling pursuit used to be semi-justifiable because it was fun. This is supposed to be fun?? In the consumer sector they call what is happening in horse racing "bait and switch".

lamboguy
06-27-2017, 01:32 PM
i have a friend that loved the racing game. he didn't want to spend $11 on a racing form so i send him all the pp's he wants. i spoke to the guy this morning and asked him what forms he wants, he told me the game is so boring he doesn't want to even look at the forms any more.

as for myself, i am going into a limited mode of betting from now on. i am just playing the 2 year old races. if the company's decide that i am no longer a big enough player to warrant the rebate i get, i will quit the game all together and do something more productive with my time.

i wonder how many other's fall into this category these days. as far as i can see, the game hasn't done to much to entice anyone to stay in.

AltonKelsey
06-27-2017, 01:36 PM
basically as far as i am concerned the game has passed my bye and i am way over my head trying to battle this game 365 days a year.

but i have to give strong credit to The Little Guy and Moutainman who actually go at it in their respective venues and produce plenty of winners and have net winning meets picking every single race.


If you think this game has passed you by, there are many more daytraders in the stock market that have been blown away. Horseplayers have it easy.

thaskalos
06-27-2017, 01:41 PM
If you think this game has passed you by, there are many more daytraders in the stock market that have been blown away. Horseplayers have it easy.

If the horseplayers have it so "easy"...shouldn't these failed daytraders be coming over to OUR game, sometime soon?

Dave Schwartz
06-27-2017, 02:49 PM
IMHO, the volatility of the tote board in this era makes it all but impossible to use as a line tool. Frankly, it was making me nuts, especially at the high rebate tracks where there is WAY MORE VOLATILITY.

I moved away from the tote board about 3.5 years ago. I (as well as many of my HSH users) use what we call "Object Odds."

That is, we use a 5-factor object to represent the odds. There are two static objects I suggest, one for low-rebate tracks and the other for high rebates. The difference is that the most important object for the low-rebate tracks is the morning line, while at the high rebate tracks it moves down to 3rd or 4th.

Personally, I do it dynamically (i.e. have the software build it "on-the-fly" from the database of "races like this one").

The output is clearly better than most morning lines but sometimes makes huge mistakes. For example, Just watched the 4th at PRX - very playable (40 units) - where we went in with 2 horses projected to be 7.3/1 and 12.8/1. We loaded on the 7/1 and watched as he paid $5.80.

I've also had horses projected to be 5/2 pay $28. LOL

Of course, it is usually better than that, but the point is IT WORKS for us.

That is, it allows us to forget about the tote board. Many of our users double-check the tote visually and some simply use the tote scraping capability built in at 0 or 1 minute to post. Personally, I find that the first update after 0 minutes is "good enough" to play but still makes me crazy.

Despite the occasional inaccuracies, most of the time our object odds are dead on with the low odds horses, especially in terms of public choice order.

I recently did a 150-race test and the average error was +/- .6 positions (in the odds), and in the top 3 choices the positional error is less than half that. There are a lot of 6 horse fields where it gets the order top to bottom.

I shown on several videos how to do this and will do so again in our upcoming (Late July) "Summer Seminar Series."


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

dilanesp
06-27-2017, 03:06 PM
I read this whole thread, and thaskalos' posts in it are the way, the truth, and the light.

AltonKelsey
06-27-2017, 04:56 PM
If the horseplayers have it so "easy"...shouldn't these failed daytraders be coming over to OUR game, sometime soon?

Afraid not, diff skill set. Meant the changes to racing over the last 20 years pale in comparison to changes in markets.

thaskalos
06-28-2017, 02:35 PM
Afraid not, diff skill set. Meant the changes to racing over the last 20 years pale in comparison to changes in markets.

Maybe so...but by saying that "horseplayers have it easy", you implied that it's easier to make money at the track, than in the "markets".

Nitro
06-28-2017, 03:09 PM
When I read this sort of stuff, I just sort of scratch my head and wonder why all the alleged fervent horse players who continue to complain about the same old thing about the local game don’t switch to playing Hong Kong?

Maybe it’s just me, but I’ll tell you what, as far as I’m concerned there’s absolutely nothing like it here in N.A. In fact, from a player’s perspective it’s overall product content is probably an opposing 180 degrees from of every grievance that you’ll see mentioned on this forum.

I’m not going into all those details again, but let’s face it all the complaining in the world isn’t going to change the local game. Perhaps when someone with an entrepreneurial spirit shakes up the racing community with some real innovation, things might change. Until then I’ll take my chances with what I believe to be the best racing product on the planet. :ThmbUp:

thaskalos
06-28-2017, 03:23 PM
When I read this sort of stuff, I just sort of scratch my head and wonder why all the alleged fervent horse players who continue to complain about the same old thing about the local game don’t switch to playing Hong Kong?

Maybe it’s just me, but I’ll tell you what, as far as I’m concerned there’s absolutely nothing like it here in N.A. In fact, from a player’s perspective it’s overall product content is probably an opposing 180 degrees from of every grievance that you’ll see mentioned on this forum.

I’m not going into all those details again, but let’s face it all the complaining in the world isn’t going to change the local game. Perhaps when someone with an entrepreneurial spirit shakes up the racing community with some real innovation, things might change. Until then I’ll take my chances with what I believe to be the best racing product on the planet. :ThmbUp:

I would switch to the Hong Kong product...but I find their offered past-performances to be woefully inadequate for the handicapping that I do.

dilanesp
06-28-2017, 03:23 PM
Just a personal observation about odds lines, and this dovetails with Thas' posts, but one thing making at least a rough odds line does for me is keep me away from the worst bets, which are horses with fairly good chances to win at fairly low odds.

In other words, you think a horse has the best chance to win the race, and he's 2 to 1. Without an odds line, I would have tended to just bet that horse to win. But the odds line keeps me honest-- if I assign probabilities to the rest of the horses in the race, do I really give that horse a 34 percent or greater chance of winning the race (really a 40 percent or greater, because I need a cushion)? Oftentimes if I do the line and realistically estimate the chances of the other contenders, I will find I only give that horse a 25 percent chance, or a 20 percent chance. I still think he's got the best shot, but the betting value isn't there. So I pass the race (unless I can figure out a likely overlay in the exotics).

I think LOTS of players make exactly these sorts of negative value bets, because they don't have an odds line (or a strong enough notion in their head of what the odds should be) to stop them.

whodoyoulike
06-28-2017, 03:51 PM
Totally on point, what good will an odds line do you when the 1/9 shot, who by the way opened with an "in your face" $5000 win bet into a $186 win pool, will go up to 7-5 after the bell, and the runner up, who was 2-1 or 5-2 at post closes as the 4-5 favorite? I'll tell you what good it's good for: absolutely nothing, just as Edwin Starr sang. Not that this happens every half hour, but it happens enough as to reduce the effectiveness of pre-race odds lines used for betting. ...


I'm trying to understand Why someone would ..... " who by the way opened with an "in your face" $5000 win bet into a $186 win pool ...".

They should've realized that size of a bet into a $186 win pool would drive the odds to 1/9.

So, why would someone do this?

:1: to submit a late cancel or partial because others would've bet on other horses or because other people would have hammered it further?

:2: or, some other reason?

lamboguy
06-28-2017, 05:18 PM
I'm trying to understand Why someone would ..... " who by the way opened with an "in your face" $5000 win bet into a $186 win pool ...".

They should've realized that size of a bet into a $186 win pool would drive the odds to 1/9.

So, why would someone do this?

:1: to submit a late cancel or partial because others would've bet on other horses or because other people would have hammered it further?

:2: or, some other reason?the guy doesn't really have to do to much cancelling. at the end of the betting cycle you have conditional wagers that come in, pool analysis, and batch bettors step up to the plate. when all of them kick in you get big moves.

in retrospect, you have to not only be a good handicapper, but you must also have a real good ability to guess what will happen with odds after the race has been run. if you are able to make that parlay you can win millions at this game every year that the game keeps going.

Nitro
06-28-2017, 05:28 PM
I would switch to the Hong Kong product...but I find their offered past-performances to be woefully inadequate for the handicapping that I do.

I can’t really comment on why your style of handicapping wouldn’t be compatible with the information that the HK Jockey Club provides. They offer a free and somewhat comprehensive “Form Guide & Speed Chart” for every racing date. I don’t use it myself, but I did notice few things that might be of interest that differs from a typical DRF.

Along with the basic stuff like Class, distance run, split times broken down, weight carried and individual race commentary, they also mention days off between races, weight of the animal itself in each racing event and any incident or infirmity that may have compromised the performance. The Speed Chart also provides a vivid diagram of the anticipated overall race-to-be-run profile with additional commentary on each entry. And yes it’s all in English!

whodoyoulike
06-28-2017, 09:11 PM
the guy doesn't really have to do to much cancelling. at the end of the betting cycle you have conditional wagers that come in, pool analysis, and batch bettors step up to the plate. when all of them kick in you get big moves.

in retrospect, you have to not only be a good handicapper, but you must also have a real good ability to guess what will happen with odds after the race has been run. if you are able to make that parlay you can win millions at this game every year that the game keeps going.

I remember reading an article that Billy Walters had made similar early large Sports bets in an attempt to change odds on his real bet. Honestly, I didn't understand the how and/or why's of his moves but it sounds like something which you're describing.

But, in regards to horse racing if that horse isn't your primary bet and cancelling (or partial) isn't involved, I don't see how they can make money because it's pari-mutuel.

whodoyoulike
06-28-2017, 09:15 PM
I can’t really comment on why your style of handicapping wouldn’t be compatible with the information that the HK Jockey Club provides. They offer a free and somewhat comprehensive “Form Guide & Speed Chart” for every racing date. I don’t use it myself, but I did notice few things that might be of interest that differs from a typical DRF.

Along with the basic stuff like Class, distance run, split times broken down, weight carried and individual race commentary, they also mention days off between races, weight of the animal itself in each racing event and any incident or infirmity that may have compromised the performance. The Speed Chart also provides a vivid diagram of the anticipated overall race-to-be-run profile with additional commentary on each entry. And yes it’s all in English!

A couple of years ago because of the comments and posts on here, I also looked at the HKJC PP's provided and I agree with Thaskalos their PP's are difficult to follow when one is used to N.A. styled PP's.

Just to be clear there is a lot of info being provided especially with their replays (a couple different views). I think every race for each entry which is commendable. I wish we had that over here with our PP format.

CincyHorseplayer
06-28-2017, 11:37 PM
Just a personal observation about odds lines, and this dovetails with Thas' posts, but one thing making at least a rough odds line does for me is keep me away from the worst bets, which are horses with fairly good chances to win at fairly low odds.

In other words, you think a horse has the best chance to win the race, and he's 2 to 1. Without an odds line, I would have tended to just bet that horse to win. But the odds line keeps me honest-- if I assign probabilities to the rest of the horses in the race, do I really give that horse a 34 percent or greater chance of winning the race (really a 40 percent or greater, because I need a cushion)? Oftentimes if I do the line and realistically estimate the chances of the other contenders, I will find I only give that horse a 25 percent chance, or a 20 percent chance. I still think he's got the best shot, but the betting value isn't there. So I pass the race (unless I can figure out a likely overlay in the exotics).

I think LOTS of players make exactly these sorts of negative value bets, because they don't have an odds line (or a strong enough notion in their head of what the odds should be) to stop them.

I agree. Somebody else's oddsline is meaningless unless they are god like. Any version of an oddsline of your own as you said keeps you out of non winning situations. That in itself is a win.

AltonKelsey
06-28-2017, 11:51 PM
A couple of years ago because of the comments and posts on here, I also looked at the HKJC PP's provided and I agree with Thaskalos their PP's are difficult to follow when one is used to N.A. styled PP's.

Just to be clear there is a lot of info being provided especially with their replays (a couple different views). I think every race for each entry which is commendable. I wish we had that over here with our PP format.


I don't quite understand why they haven't already produced the exact same format for HK racing as is available here.

I believe all the information is already available, it's just a formatting issue.

I'm sure equibase and/or beyer can produce speed figures, no big deal.

Nitro
06-29-2017, 10:04 AM
I don't quite understand why they haven't already produced the exact same format for HK racing as is available here.

I believe all the information is already available, it's just a formatting issue.

I'm sure equibase and/or beyer can produce speed figures, no big deal.

And while the HK Jockey Club offers very readable and comprehensive information at no charge, you’ll be the first one on line to pay for the DRF version and later complain about the price and inaccuracy of the Beyer figures. :lol:

thaskalos
06-29-2017, 12:59 PM
And while the HK Jockey Club offers very readable and comprehensive information at no charge, you’ll be the first one on line to pay for the DRF version and later complain about the price and inaccuracy of the Beyer figures. :lol:

As popular as Hong Kong's racing is...it's odd that no HK pace and speed figures are currently available for sale on the internet. The customer should be able to pay for what he wants.

Nitro
06-29-2017, 01:14 PM
As popular as Hong Kong's racing is...it's odd that no HK pace and speed figures are currently available for sale on the internet. The customer should be able to pay for what he wants.
Is that a new feature that’s available from the standard DRF? I didn’t realize that they offered speed and pace figures as part of their standard format.
I was also under the impression that many seem to want to generate their own figures. If that’s the case, the race split times are certainly posted with every race shown for each entry in a race in the HK Speed Form.

cj
06-29-2017, 01:18 PM
Is that a new feature that’s available from the standard DRF? I didn’t realize that they offered speed and pace figures as part of their standard format.
I was also under the impression that many seem to want to generate their own figures. If that’s the case, the race split times are certainly posted with every race shown for each entry in a race in the HK Speed Form.

Yes, they are certainly available on DRF and from various other sources...TimeformUS, BRIS, Equibase, etc.

thaskalos
06-29-2017, 01:24 PM
Is that a new feature that’s available from the standard DRF? I didn’t realize that they offered speed and pace figures as part of their standard format.
I was also under the impression that many seem to want to generate their own figures. If that’s the case, the race split times are certainly posted with every race shown for each entry in a race in the HK Speed Form.

Sorry, Nitro...I responded to you because I thought you were serious with your Honk Kong commentary here. I didn't realize that you were just trolling.

Nitro
06-29-2017, 02:37 PM
Sorry, Nitro...I responded to you because I thought you were serious with your Honk Kong commentary here. I didn't realize that you were just trolling.
You don’t have to apologize.
It’s unfortunate that by now you couldn’t recognize that I’m certainly serious about discussing the HKJC information and any attributes of its racing product.
I just find it hard to believe that with all of the thousands of people using it that some here would find it out of their realm of understanding, just because they’ve been so indoctrinated (and perhaps brainwashed) by the local horseracing format.

thaskalos
06-29-2017, 03:00 PM
You don’t have to apologize.
It’s unfortunate that by now you couldn’t recognize that I’m certainly serious about discussing the HKJC information and any attributes of its racing product.
I just find it hard to believe that with all of the thousands of people using it that some here would find it out of their realm of understanding, just because they’ve been so indoctrinated (and perhaps brainwashed) by the local horseracing format.

You find WHAT "hard to believe"? That an American-based player would like a set of highly-detailed
PPs before betting his money?

Nitro
06-29-2017, 03:19 PM
You find WHAT "hard to believe"? That an American-based player would like a set of highly-detailed
PPs before betting his money?


No, actually that any American based player would find the all the details provided by the HKJC inadequate, just because its formatted differently from what their used to. It doesn’t take any pre-requisite in any special discipline to comprehend the information that’s offered (Assuming they know how to read English). I would agree that they might actually find it a bit overwhelming at first glance, because there’s an awful lot more pertinent info available particularly when it comes to a horse’s physicality.

whodoyoulike
06-29-2017, 03:33 PM
You don’t have to apologize.
It’s unfortunate that by now you couldn’t recognize that I’m certainly serious about discussing the HKJC information and any attributes of its racing product.
I just find it hard to believe that with all of the thousands of people using it that some here would find it out of their realm of understanding, just because they’ve been so indoctrinated (and perhaps brainwashed) by the local horseracing format.

I had several difficulties with the Free HKJC PP's but one of them involved:

:1: True, they provided a list of horses running for a particular race.

:2: Then you can select each horse and their PP's can or will show in a a separate tab.

:3: True again, each horse's fractional running lines were provided for each race and then you have the option to see the replay of a race but you have no idea which horse is the one you're interested in until the end when you find out it's finish position. Then you have to re-watch the race in order to observe the horse's running style and effort. Do this for several races for this particular horse and I hope you can see the difficulty of this process.

:4: Repeat :2: and :3: for each horse running and then count the number of tabs open on your computer. It's easy to lose track of who is who in each tab.

But, a good feature of HK racing is the video view of the horses in the paddock especially if you understand body language. Each horse is isolated for at least 1 or 2 minutes in the walking ring (which I thought was a mini race track).

I wish the isolating view of each horse would be adopted over here.

I don't know how you do it. But, I remember you mentioned you don't use the PP's. And, if it works for you, that's great (for you).

Nitro
06-29-2017, 04:53 PM
.
But, a good feature of HK racing is the video view of the horses in the paddock especially if you understand body language. Each horse is isolated for at least 1 or 2 minutes in the walking ring (which I thought was a mini race track).

I wish the isolating view of each horse would be adopted over here.

I don't know how you do it. But, I remember you mentioned you don't use the PP's. And, if it works for you, that's great (for you).How it works for me.
As an initial setup and preparation, I use a pre-race card Static tote analysis that allows me to come up with potentially 50% of any field of entries that in my estimation will be trying. I’ll also take a quick perusal of the Vets info to see if there are any physical issues.

When the actual betting begins the Live tote action in the Win/Place and Quinella pools can further affect the tote analysis and how I view the early selections. Their order of preference might be altered, or they might be dropped altogether due to lack of action and substituted with others receiving the kind of betting that would indicate a better performance. I also enjoy the pre-race commentary by the announcers who are viewing each entry in the walking ring. Very often they may point out a peculiarity that could affect an animal’s performance one way or the other.

I could care less about how the entries have performed previously. In fact, when the indicators show that they’ve been running poorly, but for some unknown reason are getting what most would deem unwarranted betting activity, there’s usually a very good reason for it.

Keep in mind, I’m not trying to find a single Winner among the 12 to 14 entries. I’m simply trying to find those entries that will make-up either a 3-entry Dutch Win bet, a Quinella or possibly a Triple bet. In other words, I’m looking for a Winning play that will produce profit. The odds of the final selections act as my barometer to determine which play to make or even to play at all.

Being an outsider half-way around the world from where the racing is taking place doesn’t faze me at all. That’s because the large field sizes permit a more discriminatory analysis of the betting activities. HK betting is like no other place in the world and the information I’m getting in real time is always spot on. I can only add that after 4 years of playing there, it’s still a very refreshing change from the local racing.

BTW, this was my most recent posting of early selections for HK:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=139233

traynor
06-29-2017, 05:16 PM
No, actually that any American based player would find the all the details provided by the HKJC inadequate, just because its formatted differently from what their used to. It doesn’t take any pre-requisite in any special discipline to comprehend the information that’s offered (Assuming they know how to read English). I would agree that they might actually find it a bit overwhelming at first glance, because there’s an awful lot more pertinent info available particularly when it comes to a horse’s physicality.

I agree. One of the great things about 2017 is that it is a fairly trivial matter to hire someone to write (or modify) an app to scrape and re-format data any way one prefers. Then one can have it in the exact format that one prefers.

Similarly, if one has a reasonable amount of experience, it is also a relatively trivial matter to generate one's own speed and pace figures--which may well be better than anything available to the general public.

And the upside is that one takes all the responsibility for generating the values used in wagering--so one gets all the fortune and glory one deserves. The downside, of course, is that there is no one to blame when things don't work out as planned.

cj
06-29-2017, 05:34 PM
Similarly, if one has a reasonable amount of experience, it is also a relatively trivial matter to generate one's own speed and pace figures--which may well be better than anything available to the general public.



LOL, ok.

ReplayRandall
06-29-2017, 05:40 PM
LOL, ok.

CJ, isn't it nice to know that what you do is considered "a relatively trivial matter" by others here at PA?.....So refreshing...:lol:

cj
06-29-2017, 05:47 PM
CJ, isn't it nice to know that what you do is considered "a relatively trivial matter" by others here at PA?.....So refreshing...:lol:

I just hope my bosses don't find out!

To be fair, just doing Hong Kong wouldn't be that hard in my opinion. Trivial, no, but they don't run that many races or have many tracks. I'm sure most people betting serious money there have some sort of quality speed figures.

whodoyoulike
06-29-2017, 05:54 PM
How it works for me.
:1: As an initial setup and preparation, I use a pre-race card Static tote analysis that allows me to come up with potentially 50% of any field of entries that in my estimation will be trying. I’ll also take a quick perusal of the Vets info to see if there are any physical issues.

When the actual betting begins the Live tote action in the Win/Place and Quinella pools can further affect the tote analysis and how I view the early selections. Their order of preference might be altered, or they might be dropped altogether due to lack of action and substituted with others receiving the kind of betting that would indicate a better performance. :2: I also enjoy the pre-race commentary by the announcers who are viewing each entry in the walking ring. Very often they may point out a peculiarity that could affect an animal’s performance one way or the other.

:3: I could care less about how the entries have performed previously. In fact, when the indicators show that they’ve been running poorly, but for some unknown reason are getting what most would deem unwarranted betting activity, there’s usually a very good reason for it.

Keep in mind, :4: I’m not trying to find a single Winner among the 12 to 14 entries. I’m simply trying to find those entries that will make-up either a 3-entry Dutch Win bet, a Quinella or possibly a Triple bet. :5: In other words, I’m looking for a Winning play that will produce profit. The odds of the final selections act as my barometer to determine which play to make or even to play at all.

Being an outsider half-way around the world from where the racing is taking place doesn’t faze me at all. That’s because the large field sizes permit a more discriminatory analysis of the betting activities. HK betting is like no other place in the world and the information I’m getting in real time is always spot on. I can only add that after 4 years of playing there, it’s still a very refreshing change from the local racing.

BTW, this was my most recent posting of early selections for HK:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=139233

:1: That's a good approach.

:2: Btw, I only was looking at HK for only a short time. The time difference is a killer for me deciding between gambling and sleep. Towards the end, I tried looking at body language and my selections were so-so to okay. Still wasn't confident without my usual handicapping.

:3: We differ here because I think previous performance is very important basically the where, how and why's.

:4: Again, we differ since I prefer Win but will make other bets. But, I do remember betting an exacta or a quinella which is actually a Win and Show placing or something like that. Taught me a lesson that I should learn the difference in terminology between jurisdictions because at the same time I was looking at Aussie racing (I have TVG). Found out later there is a HK betting guide available.

:5: We're all (or most) are looking for winning plays just using different methods.
.

thaskalos
06-29-2017, 06:27 PM
I agree. One of the great things about 2017 is that it is a fairly trivial matter to hire someone to write (or modify) an app to scrape and re-format data any way one prefers. Then one can have it in the exact format that one prefers.

Similarly, if one has a reasonable amount of experience, it is also a relatively trivial matter to generate one's own speed and pace figures--which may well be better than anything available to the general public.

And the upside is that one takes all the responsibility for generating the values used in wagering--so one gets all the fortune and glory one deserves. The downside, of course, is that there is no one to blame when things don't work out as planned.

You hit the nail right on the head...that's exactly what I was looking for. Someone to blame for when things "don't work out as planned". :ThmbUp:

betovernetcapper
06-29-2017, 09:00 PM
as a point of reference. Everyone sees the track or DRF Ml. For better or worse it influences the pools. If a horse has exposed form & appears to be the horse to beat on paper & has a ML of 8-5 & then hovers around 3-1 or 7-2, then it's probably not an overlay but a horse with a problem. If the same horse is bet aggressively it's more likely to run to it's numbers.
The great thing about the ML is that it's the same for everyone. It's like Coordinated Universal Time (similar to Greenwich Mean Time), which is the same for everyone. It's not a particularly good tool for betting, but it's a great tool to measure how the betting market is flowing.
I think it's important to differentiate between a morning line and a betting line. In a betting line you draw a line in the sand and say I'll take this horse at 2-1 or this horse at 5-1 & this horse if it's going off at big odds. A betting line can be computer generated or created by your view of the race or a combination of the two. I've never been able to say with authority that a given horse should be $3.43 to one. I'm more comfortable with saying it should be in the neighborhood of a little over 5-2 to 4-1. Just my 2$.:)

betovernetcapper
06-29-2017, 09:14 PM
As popular as Hong Kong's racing is...it's odd that no HK pace and speed figures are currently available for sale on the internet. The customer should be able to pay for what he wants.

I found one. It's called honkongturfcom They sell a DRF type product with speed figures & trainer-jockey stats and comments. You can download a race for free & see how you like the format. Aside from the cost $25 Sha Tin & $15 for Happy Valley, it's pretty good.

Nitro
06-30-2017, 02:17 PM
as a point of reference. Everyone sees the track or DRF Ml. For better or worse it influences the pools. If a horse has exposed form & appears to be the horse to beat on paper & has a ML of 8-5 & then hovers around 3-1 or 7-2, then it's probably not an overlay but a horse with a problem. If the same horse is bet aggressively it's more likely to run to it's numbers.

The great thing about the ML is that it's the same for everyone. It's like Coordinated Universal Time (similar to Greenwich Mean Time), which is the same for everyone. It's not a particularly good tool for betting, but it's a great tool to measure how the betting market is flowing.

I think it's important to differentiate between a morning line and a betting line. In a betting line you draw a line in the sand and say I'll take this horse at 2-1 or this horse at 5-1 & this horse if it's going off at big odds. A betting line can be computer generated or created by your view of the race or a combination of the two. I've never been able to say with authority that a given horse should be $3.43 to one. I'm more comfortable with saying it should be in the neighborhood of a little over 5-2 to 4-1. Just my 2$.:)

Let’s just agree that the M/L is a reference point. Any changes due to scratches and track conditions can wreak havoc on any M/L, but it is what it is.

The creation of a personally developed betting line is as far as I’m concerned based on a purely subjective interpretation of the past performances and perhaps some other statistical data. Just because your own line may show that a 2/1 shot as an overlay because the current real odds are 5/1, doesn’t mean it’s time to send it in. The same can be said about a personal betting line showing a 5/1 entry as an underlay because its currently 2/1 on the live tote. There are certainly other things to consider about an animals current condition.

Unfortunately, odds in general reflect only a single betting pool: The Win Pool. In most individual races there’s lots of other betting taking place not only in the Mutual pools (Place & Show), but in the Vertical pools as well. The ability to analyze and compare the activity among all the available pools is at the heart of thorough tote analysis. There’s also an important key psychological factor incorporated into this analysis which weighs specific betting activities in order to arrive at those entries which are deemed as “live”.

The Live betting is the only realistic measurement of how the betting market is actually flowing. The final odds (or those close to post-time) should only be used to determine if the race is even playable from you’re personal betting history. Not because your selection’s personal line is higher or lower than what’s being shown, but because of the entry’s face value when considering what your historical hit frequency is. In other words, if you’re only hit 1 out of every 5 of those 5/1 shots you’re only breaking even.

betovernetcapper
06-30-2017, 06:46 PM
The creation of a personally developed betting line is as far as I’m concerned based on a purely subjective interpretation of the past performances and perhaps some other statistical data. .


Of course it's subjective. You look at all the data, including "live betting and make a judgment on how much if anything you should bet. It's called horse racing.

Parkview_Pirate
06-30-2017, 07:42 PM
I found one. It's called honkongturfcom They sell a DRF type product with speed figures & trainer-jockey stats and comments. You can download a race for free & see how you like the format. Aside from the cost $25 Sha Tin & $15 for Happy Valley, it's pretty good.

Looks like the 4th race is "free" tonight. It's pretty sparse compared to North American PPs, but we'll see how the speed figures compare to the ones at HKJC (in the speed pro link) and the KGR figs from racingandsports.com.au (which show Hong Kong horses to be quite slow compared to other venues) . Last time I checked for alternative PPs for HK a few years ago, the pay sites were all stale links.

Interestly, there is no "morning line" from Hong Kong on most sites, though Xpressbet has a wildly erratic M/L listed on their program. So if one used the M/L in constructing an odds line, you'd be a bit more on your own at Happy Valley and Sha Tin.

As a side note, the PPs for Hong Kong are okay for me, since the figures are not nearly as relevant as North American, especially North American dirt racing. What is important is post, jockey switches, and trip, since most of the races are on the turf.

The huge downside to Hong Kong is Moreira. He's a man among boys, is usually on a horse that figures, and is consistently a huge underlay. He easily makes 1/3 to 1/2 of the races unbettable, and I really wish he'd take more days off or retire.

betovernetcapper
06-30-2017, 10:46 PM
I make a morning line from the HKJC Speed Pro numbers & run them through a Monte Carlo program 2000 times with a 10% Standard Deviation. It's by no means perfect but OK. I needed a morning line to get certain features of ATR PRO.

The upside to Moreira, is that everyone thinks he's magic. Purton rides almost as many winners but you tend to get better prices. In addition, if you like something the Magic Man is not riding, your probably getting a few points. So it all evens out. Do share your wish that he'd retire though.:)

AltonKelsey
07-01-2017, 12:55 AM
And while the HK Jockey Club offers very readable and comprehensive information at no charge, you’ll be the first one on line to pay for the DRF version and later complain about the price and inaccuracy of the Beyer figures. :lol:


I think Hillary Clintons old man was Prez the last time I paid for PP's. Just sayin.

AltonKelsey
07-01-2017, 01:11 AM
I looked at that hongkong turf product. $25 for that may be value if its priced in $HK , but not $USD.

betovernetcapper
07-01-2017, 02:46 AM
I looked at that hongkong turf product. $25 for that may be value if its priced in $HK , but not $USD.

It is pricey, but in the 4th pointed out the even money favorite had no chance. His figs were 20 points lower then the contenders. Like it, but is pricey.

AltonKelsey
07-01-2017, 12:37 PM
It is pricey, but in the 4th pointed out the even money favorite had no chance. His figs were 20 points lower then the contenders. Like it, but is pricey.

I saw the figs. And the horse blew out to 8/5 at the end not even money.


I have no idea if the figs are any good or not, but considering the massive amounts of data that are available, those pp's are sparse as hell. Race times are not even included.

cutchemist42
07-12-2017, 12:19 PM
All I will say is that my results were better when Ibstill had access to Betfair as a Canadian. Put in my odds, and if no bet got matched Inwould judt move on.

Im a better handicapper now too then I was 3 years ago so I really miss it even more now.