Reality based Belmont handicapping thread ...

[Mad Scientist]

There is obviously two types of handicappers on this site. Those of us that indulge in reality based handicapping using such tools as pp's and video replays and common sense and their is those that prefer their handicapping with a more fantasy flavor to it. They like to make up their own pp's and video replays in their mind and things like common sense just get in the way.

I have decided to make a thread where reality based handicappers can debate and exchange ideas in a effort to solve the Belmont puzzle. A place where people can talk a little trash in order to spur the competitive juices so that we can bring out the best handicappers in all of us. The people that are easily offended over any type of back and forth can go to the other threads that are dominated by the fantasy handicappers. They are very politically correct and have group hugs to soothe any hurt feelings.

You may be asking yourself am I a reality based handicapper or a fantasy based handicapper ? Well here's a little quiz to help you decide ...

1. If you thought CC was all out in the derby and that commanding curve was making up ground because CC was tired than you might be a fantasy based handicapper .

2. If you think that ROC would have caught CC in the Preakness if the race was just a little longer than you might be a fantasy based handicapper .

3. If you think that Smarty Jones is better than CC because he beat rock hard ten and CC beat ROC in the Preakness and you figure since rock hard ten won a grade 1 as a older horse and ROC has no wins as a grade 1 older horse than you might be a fantasy handicapper .

4. If you honestly can't recall anybody ever saying that CC would not win the Preakness on this forum than you might be a fantasy based handicapper .

5. If you think the fact that CC wears a nasal strip is a give away by Sherman that CC can't get a 1 1/2 than you might be a fantasy handicapper.

6. If one of your main betting angles is that CC can't possibly win the Belmont because he's never raced a 1 1/2 mile while ignoring the fact that no horse in the race has ever raced that far than you might be a fantasy handicapper .

7. If your one of the people that voted in the poll on the other thread that you will not use CC on any ticket than you might be a fantasy handicapper but don't feel bad that option is by far winning the vote so apparently a big majority of handicappers on this forum don't think chrome will hit the board.

8. If your going back and forth about whether to single commissioner on top or use general arod with him than you might be a fantasy handicapper .

I think you get the idea .... So let's let the fantasy based handicappers figure out their super tickets that are not going to have CC anywhere to be found on them and us reality based handicappers can figure out how we can use CC and still make a decent profit.

[wiffleball whizz]

CC at +115 tell me everything I need to know about the race.......he's not winning......

[Mad Scientist]

I suggest we get started by analyzing each probable horse in the Belmont from a reality based perspective ... Let's start with commissioner. I think he is the easiest toss in the field. I don't think he has any realistic chance to clunk up in the super . Is there any reality based arguments to be made why commissioner has a shot to hit the super.

Let's debate it. If someone has a good angle on commissioner than let's get it out there so the whole reality based handicapping community can dissect the argument and either conclude that yeah commissioner can hit the super or he can't.

[Mad Scientist]

Alright whiffle ball whizz can you explain your angle a little more in depth ? So your saying that some sportsbook and I am assuming it's a sportsbook since you use the +115 .... Is saying CC is a heavy favorite so that means he can't win, because heavy favorites never win ? Help me understand what your saying .....

[wiffleball whizz]

Alright whiffle ball whizz can you explain your angle a little more in depth ? So your saying that some sportsbook and I am assuming it's a sportsbook since you use the +115 .... Is saying CC is a heavy favorite so that means he can't win, because heavy favorites never win ? Help me understand what your saying .....


If you see a lock at +115 that's means something's not right.... I figured he would be 1/2 Belmont day....and that's -200

I hope I'm wrong but all signs are pointing to a letdown

[thaskalos]

What kind of discussion can this possibly turn out to be?

After you exclude all us "fantasy handicappers"...all you have left are you "reality handicappers"...who have already made up your minds. California Chrome is as close to a sure thing as it gets...and he is a bargain at even-money.

Doesn't sound like much of a discussion to me...

[dannyhill]

Whizzz what is the price on Mad Scientist getting banned before the Belmont Stakes is even run.:lol:

[thaskalos]

Mad Scientist...what do you think will be the odds on California Chrome in the Belmont?

[Bullet Plane]

That's all I need...


Some "genius" telling me how he came up with his 1/2 shot!

YGBSM!!!

[wiffleball whizz]

Whizzz what is the price on Mad Scientist getting banned before the Belmont Stakes is even run.:lol:

That's got a better shot of happening then CC winning

I was 1/5 from getting banned last year but luckily PA let me slip through the cracks :lol: :lol:

[Mad Scientist]

I am not suggesting we discuss for 2 weeks whether CC is going to win. I am saying we figure out the superfecta and than maybe some multi race exotics.

[Mad Scientist]

Let me explain it this way. Fantasy handicappers can spend the next two weeks coming up with all sorts of superfectas that don't involve CC since they offer such great value. Personally I don't see what the value is in a losing ticket but hey to each their own. If I followed that logic I would just buy mega million tickets. They only cost a $1 and you can win hundreds of millions . I mean what better value is there than that ? But I don't like losing tickets regardless of what they would have paid if they had actually won and to me any superfecta that has CC nowhere to be found on it is a losing ticket.

Sure CC could take a bad step or the stewards could DQ him but I am old school like Rich Perloff I don't take the possibility of a horse getting pulled up or being DQ as a handicapping angle when figuring out a race. Those are just unlucky things that there is a very small chance of happening and if they happen they happen. It's like there's a chance I'll get hit by lightning everytime I leave my house but I still leave my house. .

[wreckless]

i say we enjoy mad scientists 'triple crown run' on the boards and entertain his 'discussion'

i'm too new to the sport to engage but i do agree with #2 on his list.

[mostpost]

There is obviously two types of handicappers on this site. Those of us that indulge in reality based handicapping using such tools as pp's and video replays and common sense and their is those that prefer their handicapping with a more fantasy flavor to it. They like to make up their own pp's and video replays in their mind and things like common sense just get in the way.

I have decided to make a thread where reality based handicappers can debate and exchange ideas in a effort to solve the Belmont puzzle. A place where people can talk a little trash in order to spur the competitive juices so that we can bring out the best handicappers in all of us. The people that are easily offended over any type of back and forth can go to the other threads that are dominated by the fantasy handicappers. They are very politically correct and have group hugs to soothe any hurt feelings.

You may be asking yourself am I a reality based handicapper or a fantasy based handicapper ? Well here's a little quiz to help you decide ...

1. If you thought CC was all out in the derby and that commanding curve was making up ground because CC was tired than you might be a fantasy based handicapper .

2. If you think that ROC would have caught CC in the Preakness if the race was just a little longer than you might be a fantasy based handicapper .

3. If you think that Smarty Jones is better than CC because he beat rock hard ten and CC beat ROC in the Preakness and you figure since rock hard ten won a grade 1 as a older horse and ROC has no wins as a grade 1 older horse than you might be a fantasy handicapper .

4. If you honestly can't recall anybody ever saying that CC would not win the Preakness on this forum than you might be a fantasy based handicapper .

5. If you think the fact that CC wears a nasal strip is a give away by Sherman that CC can't get a 1 1/2 than you might be a fantasy handicapper.

6. If one of your main betting angles is that CC can't possibly win the Belmont because he's never raced a 1 1/2 mile while ignoring the fact that no horse in the race has ever raced that far than you might be a fantasy handicapper .

7. If your one of the people that voted in the poll on the other thread that you will not use CC on any ticket than you might be a fantasy handicapper but don't feel bad that option is by far winning the vote so apparently a big majority of handicappers on this forum don't think chrome will hit the board.

8. If your going back and forth about whether to single commissioner on top or use general arod with him than you might be a fantasy handicapper .

I think you get the idea .... So let's let the fantasy based handicappers figure out their super tickets that are not going to have CC anywhere to be found on them and us reality based handicappers can figure out how we can use CC and still make a decent profit.
You know, you have a really annoying way of saying things that are absolutely correct.

[Mystic]

You know, you have a really annoying way of saying things that are absolutely correct.
:lol:

[davew]

IS Kid Cruz running in the Belmont? A longer race may give him more time for his awesome kick...

[tanner12oz]

That was completely non existent a week ago

[Mad Scientist]

Yeah I was wrong about kid Cruz in the Preakness. So I learned that lesson and apply it to my reality based handicapping in the Belmont. I never said I was right 100% of the time. I do though handicap 100% of my races.

There is no way that any horse player with even a minimal amount of experience can look at the past performances for the Belmont and say that based off all the horses running lines that 4 horses figure to finish ahead of CC. That's just not being reality based. CC just towers above the competition on paper by any handicapping metric you want to use .

So if your saying that you are not going to use CC at all in the superfecta than what your really saying is that you are hoping CC has something really unlucky happen to him such as a bad step or DQ, and if your whole betting strategy is based on something unlucky happening to another horse than you cease being a handicapper and now you have become the very definition of the word hater. And you have every right to be a hater but own up to what you are rather than just pulling out your PC Card that all the angry liberals seem to have and try to play the PC Card against me for calling you a hater .

The reality is and again this is a reality based thread but if your entire betting strategy surrounding the Belmont involves either CC breaking down or getting a DQ than you are a hater plain and simple .

But there are people out there who want to actually handicap the race based off of things that are reality based and not based off some fantasy interpretation of things or a unexplainable hate for CC.

Do you realize what you look like when you have conversations like this .... ( based off of actual conversation from real posters and not actors )

" Yeah dude Smarty Jones is so much better than CC. Just look who Smarty Jones beat in the Preakness. He beat Rock Hard Ten who won two grade 1 as a five year old. And who did CC beat ? Oh yeah he beat ROC. How many grade 1 did ROC win as a 5 year old ? Yeah the answer is ZERO. You CC fanboys are auch idiots lol."

Do you realize how stupid you appear to everyone that has not drank the Hatorade? Sure the usual CC hating suspects will turn a blind eye to the fact that ROC is a 3 year old and therefore it would only make sense that rock hard ten has more wins as a 5 year old but to the many People who come to this forum just to read the comments I am telling you dude your not coming off as the sharpest tool in the shed.

Just let the reality based handicappers have their own thread and all the rest can have slim their threads and we can come up with our tickets using chrome and you can come up with your tickets excluding chrome and than we will see who cashed, but something tells me even after we cash you guys will be saying what idiots we were to wager $50 to win $200 and how much smart you guys were to wager $50 and win nothing since your wagers were such better " values"

[Tom]

Do you realize how stupid you appear to everyone

The question is, do YOU?

[Clocker]

The question is, do YOU?

Is that a reality based question?:p

[Boris]

I am not suggesting we discuss for 2 weeks whether CC is going to win. I am saying we figure out the superfecta and than maybe some multi race exotics.
Exacta - CC/ALL
Tri - CC/ALL/ALL
Super - CC/ALL/ALL/ALL
P3 - ALL/ALL/CC
P4 - ALL/ALL/ALL/CC

Problem solved.

[Mad Scientist]

I am not the one comparing wins as a 5 year old between a horse who raced as a 5 year old and a horse that has not even been alive for 5 years and than using that comparison to conclude that smarty jones is a much better horse than CC. That's the work of you people in the fantasy based horse handicapping world . It's your baby .... Own it ....

[cordep17]

The question is, do YOU?
I wasn't going to be the one to say it.

[Mad Scientist]

I know you anti chrome folks love to take 18 horses in a race against CC . It must have really hurt when you lost not once but twice using that strategy, but that's not my style. That's why the point of this thread was to eliminate the pretenders and try to come up with a super where we don't have to spread to deep.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Horses are flesh and blood. Not machines. To think they can run the same race each and every time is fantasy. They could only give so much. That limit is what eludes handicappers. Unless you get it straight from the horse's mouth.

[Mad Scientist]

Back to the handicapping. Commissioners last 4 races, trounced in the fountain of youth and trounced in sunland derby and than trounced in the Arkansas derby and when I say trounced I mean beaten by at least 7 lengths in each of those races. His last race was closer beaten by only 4 lengths in the Peter Pan but does that really say more about what a weak field tonalist beat. I am trying to find a positive angle for this horse but I can't. I am sticking with my thought of this horse being a total toss out for the super . Any reality based handicappers have any thought on commissioner ?

I realize this horse may be a single for all those value players out there lol ... Why bet $2 on CC just to win $3 when you can bet $2 on commissioner and win $200

[whodoyoulike]

... I never said I was right 100% of the time. I do though handicap 100% of my races. ...

Do you realize what you look like when you have conversations like this ....

Did you just have a debate with yourself? I thought I was the only one that did that and thought I was going crazy. Finally, someone I can relate too. How about the four of us go to a special room and discuss the merits of the Belmont?

[Boris]

This thread should come with popcorn.

[Mad Scientist]

Ok the more I look at commissioners running lines the more I can't believe he is entered in the race . He had a couple decent wins to start his career in a maiden and allowance race but they were decent at best. Low speed figures and faced no horses that I have ever heard of before and didn't win by a lot. Then he stepped up to the prep races and got drilled over and over. I don't see how Pletcher can justify putting this horse in the race.

He has no running style . He just starts off slow and stays slow. Complete toss out for me and the fact tonalist could only beat this horse by. 4 lengths does not say much for tonalist .

[PhantomOnTour]

29 posts in this thread and you haven't moved beyond Commissioner yet?

Awwwwww c'mon!
:lol:



this thread rules

[ArlJim78]

funny thread, let's get the field set first then we can fill in the rest.

Commissioner is a plodder, probably only a factor for the bottom rungs of a Hi5 ticket.

I think the big question will be how to separate ROC, Commanding Curve and Wicked Strong.

[Mad Scientist]

Whodoyoulooklike-

What air am actually doing is helping pace keep some credibility for his site. When people come to this site for the first time and assuming they have a 2nd grade education or higher they are going to read you fantasy based handicappers comparing wins as a 5 year old between a horse that raced as a 5 year old and a horse that has not been alive for 5 years and they are going to think that you guys must be slow or something because you guys can't grasp the fact that roc never raced as a 5 year old so you can't compare his wins as a 5 year old to rock hard tens, so they are going to think this is not a horse racing site but instead a site for those horse players that gave special needs.

And I am just letting these first time visitors know that there is those of us here that realize that ROC is a 3 year old and therefore the fact rock hard ten won a grade 1 as a 5 year old on no way proves smarty jones us better than CC

By the way your welcome pace . I got your back ...

[dannyhill]

Whizzz what is the price on Mad Scientist getting banned before the Belmont Stakes is even run.:lol:
If PA comes back and defeats Mad Scientist in their handicapping challenge he will be 1/9 to get band prior to the Belmont.:)

[Redboard]

C’mon MS, handicapping is not about figuring out who’s going to win the race. It’s about identifying the overlays and underlays, but you know that(based just upon the butt-kicking you’re giving the illustrious host of this establishment). You have bent everyone’s ear so far(I'm not saying I didn't enjoy it) but we have a right to get an answer from you to this question: If Big Brown was 0.3, and Smarty Jones was 0.35, CC will probably be no more than 0.5, so, the question is this: At that price is CC an overlay or an underlay?

[Mad Scientist]

Commissioner is a KY bred and we all know CC is a cal bred, so that alone will have at least 50% of the fantasy based handicappers believing he is a lock to finish ahead of chrome.

[Mad Scientist]

Redboard -

I agree that handicapping is about eliminating horses and that's what I am trying to do on this thread starting with commissioner . If CC goes off at 1/2 than yeah he could be considered a underlay, and I am not advocating anybody bet him on the win end to make a profit, but with that being said he is a must single at the top of any exotic plays. So to make a healthy profit you have to find a exotic wager with chrome on top and don't spread to deep underneath and hit the repeat button .

What's the point of leaving chrome off the exotics if the only exotic tickets you can cash are tickets that include him. I don't see how hoping that he gets DQ or pulled up is a winning strategy, and realistically if your hoping for chrome to not make the super it's going to be for one of those two reasons .

[Mad Scientist]

ArlJim78-

Yeah separating ROC and wicked and commanding curve is the hard part . That's why I started with the easy ones like commissioner.

[cj's dad]

234 posts and still without a clue/ Where did you go to handicapping school ?

[Grits]

Whodoyoulooklike-

What air am actually doing is helping pace keep some credibility for his site. When people come to this site for the first time and assuming they have a 2nd grade education or higher they are going to read you fantasy based handicappers comparing wins as a 5 year old between a horse that raced as a 5 year old and a horse that has not been alive for 5 years and they are going to think that you guys must be slow or something because you guys can't grasp the fact that roc never raced as a 5 year old so you can't compare his wins as a 5 year old to rock hard tens, so they are going to think this is not a horse racing site but instead a site for those horse players that gave special needs.

And I am just letting these first time visitors know that there is those of us here that realize that ROC is a 3 year old and therefore the fact rock hard ten won a grade 1 as a 5 year old on no way proves smarty jones us better than CC

By the way your welcome pace . I got your back ...

I didn't put you on ignore, and I'm glad I didn't. The American Education System you spoke of earlier? I have no idea where you attended, but you're a failure, or what educators often refer to as one who had potential, but unfortunately proved himself, a poor outcome.

There's an old saying:

"Give someone enough rope and they'll hang themselves".

And right now, you're swinging from the tallest Oak; you just don't know it. Hopefully, PA will reduce your posting to selections only. No one here, or anyone who will come to this site is slow, nor does anyone have special needs.

[Mad Scientist]

Curtisonthebay -

Do you want to be a little more specific on what I don't have a clue about ? I have no problem with a healthy debate

[Mad Scientist]

There goes grits twisting my words around so he could play his handy dandy liberal PC Card ....

[Leparoux]

If you see a lock at +115 that's means something's not right.... I figured he would be 1/2 Belmont day....and that's -200

I hope I'm wrong but all signs are pointing to a letdown
I kind of agree with you but the +115 he opened at also takes into account the chance he may not run. It won't be +115 if you want to bet it on race day

[Mystic]

This thread should come with popcorn.
Hahahaha! It's like the "Gong Show" :D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CA8IDHSpnA

[Mad Scientist]

Grits -

Your comment about me hanging from a oak tree seems to me to be very racially insensitive at the least and outright racist at the most . I don't think any of our African American visitors here on this site would very much approve of your choice of words.

Just Sayin

[Mad Scientist]

Grits -

Is Donald Sterling a friend of yours ? You two seem to have a lot in common ...

[HuggingTheRail]

Wait a second.... Grits is a he???

[Mystic]

Grits -

Your comment about me hanging from a oak tree seems to me to be very racially insensitive at the least and outright racist at the most . I don't think any of our African American visitors here on this site would very much approve of your choice of words.

Just Sayin
Outlaws and witches were hung too.. not just black people.

[Greyfox]

234 posts and still without a clue/ Where did you go to handicapping school ?

If you're referring to Mad Scientist's drool over California Chrome, agreed. :ThmbUp:

[Mad Scientist]

Ok I stand corrected. Grits comments were not only insensitive to African Americans but also to witches and outlaws.

[Grits]

There goes grits twisting my words around so he could play his handy dandy liberal PC Card ....

Grits -

Your comment about me hanging from a oak tree seems to me to be very racially insensitive at the least and outright racist at the most . I don't think any of our African American visitors here on this site would very much approve of your choice of words.

Just Sayin

I'm not a he. I don't write in Twitter-ese or Face Book jargon. Please, don't use 5th grade phrases like "just sayin" on me. My comments have nothing to do with twisting anything you've written. Neither do they have anything to do with political correctness. You have no idea how many years the gentlemen at this website have supported me in their understanding and their knowledge of comments like you've written tonight.

My advice to you, at this point? Sit down and STFU, squared.

[pandy]

Note to Mad Scientist, Chrome is a bad bet in the Belmont, and that's not a fantasy. The last 11 horses that won the first two legs and ran in the Belmont lost, and you could have found thousands of people like you who seemed sure they were going to win. The bottom line is, yes, he may win, but he will be a bad bet. If you like to bet chalk, you can find much better favorites.

Yeah, he looks good on paper, but these are not older horses. These horses are lightly raced three year olds, which means that any one of them can step up and improve and beat him. Birdstone was a promising two year old. But, he struggled as a three year old. Coming into the Belmont, on paper, Birdstone looked like a viable upset candidate if he could run back to his two year old form. To do that, he had to improve off his recent races, which he did.

This is no a Seattle Slew or Secretariat situation. California Chrome is not a lock.

[MutuelClerk]

Betting to win, I agree no value at all. IN P3's, P4's, P5's, and P6's he brings a lot more to the table. Especially with a stellar card and even bigger than normal gimmick pools. As long as the race isn't ABCD Ex, tri's and supers can pay well. But win money, agreed. Pass.

[taxicab]

Grits -

Your comment about me hanging from a oak tree seems to me to be very racially insensitive at the least and outright racist at the most . I don't think any of our African American visitors here on this site would very much approve of your choice of words.

Just Sayin



What's the matter with you ?
Playing the race card.
Moron.
Don't make something out of nothing.

[JustRalph]

Ok I stand corrected. Grits comments were not only insensitive to African Americans but also to witches and outlaws.

Now you're just a ****ing troll.......

[Thebigguy]

I suggest we get started by analyzing each probable horse in the Belmont from a reality based perspective ... Let's start with commissioner. I think he is the easiest toss in the field. I don't think he has any realistic chance to clunk up in the super . Is there any reality based arguments to be made why commissioner has a shot to hit the super.

Let's debate it. If someone has a good angle on commissioner than let's get it out there so the whole reality based handicapping community can dissect the argument and either conclude that yeah commissioner can hit the super or he can't.

Lol what a joke. You make a reality handicaping thread 10 daya before the race is drawn. Real players who bet real $$ don't make decisions until they see pps. And just to be clear, Rock Hard Ten was a better horse then Cali Chrome.

[Thebigguy]

funny thread, let's get the field set first then we can fill in the rest.

Commissioner is a plodder, probably only a factor for the bottom rungs of a Hi5 ticket.

I think the big question will be how to separate ROC, Commanding Curve and Wicked Strong.
Really? Wicked Strong is the most likely winner of the race. The other 2 have no chance at all.

[Mad Scientist]

I can't count how many times people have complained they find what I write so personally offensive and than they proceed to say things to me that are far worse than anything I have ever said. Oh the irony ...

Grits - First you say I need to hang from the tallest oak tree and twist in the wind and now I need to sit down and STFU. Have you ever heard of the term " false equivalency " ???

It goes something like this .... I am talking trash about horse racing with someone and during the back and forth trash talking the other guy makes a comment that would appear to make it seem like he does not know that the number 5 comes after the number 3 so I give it to him pretty good and say he is the product of a failed education system.

You decide to draw a false equivalency between what I told him and you telling me that I should be lynched from a tall oak tree.

Your talking about that I should be banned because I told this guy he was the product of a failed education system, yet you don't think you should be banned for telling someone they should be lynched and than after that telling them to STFU ????

You claim to be a female , but your certainly not a lady ....

[Mad Scientist]

Taxicab -

Don't make me laugh. You Libs have been playing the PC Card on me all day long saying I am hurting your feelings by saying your lousy handicappers and than grits decides to go all trailer park queen on me and say I should be lynched from a oak tree and now I am a moron for playing the race card ???

Nice try ..... You want to get all PC than fine but it goes both ways ....

[Tom]

You decide to draw a false equivalency between what I told him and you telling me that I should be lynched from a tall oak tree.

She never said that, and you damn well know it. So stop lying. No one is as stupid as your pretend to be.

[Maximillion]

17? or more posts in one thread about how an even money(or less) shot will win is the very definition of boring...with a capitol B, in my opinoin.

[Mad Scientist]

The big guy -

Hey Einstein .... Past performances are already available . Real horse players would know that ....

[luisbe]

Some people talk...others, never stop making noise.

[taxicab]

Taxicab -

Don't make me laugh. You Libs have been playing the PC Card on me all day long saying I am hurting your feelings by saying your lousy handicappers and than grits decides to go all trailer park queen on me and say I should be lynched from a oak tree and now I am a moron for playing the race card ???

Nice try ..... You want to get all PC than fine but it goes both ways ....

Hmmm.
If I can borrow from the LADY raised in the South....
STFU.

[mostpost]

Grits -

Your comment about me hanging from a oak tree seems to me to be very racially insensitive at the least and outright racist at the most . I don't think any of our African American visitors here on this site would very much approve of your choice of words.

Just Sayin
I don't think that comment by Grits had anything to do with lynchings. It fact I am certain it did not. I think it referred to the fact that you are your own worst enemy here.

[mostpost]

Wait a second.... Grits is a he???
And he is a liberal. So that is two things that Mad Scientist got wrong in one post. FYI MS, Grits is a quite attractive woman who I would describe as moderately conservative in political outlook. I am a liberal.

[Mad Scientist]

Mostpost -

She went to great lengths to paint a very vivid picture. She just did not say I was hanging from any tree but a oak tree and not just any oak tree but the tallest oak tree and you don't think she was talking about me being lynched ??? C'mon you struck me as one of the more intelligent people on this site ....

Taxicab - you borrow all the phrases from that southern lady you want to. And I have no doubt that she was raised in the south. I bet she has a big confederate flag flying outside{\rtf1\ansi\ansicpg1252
{\fonttbl}
{\colortbl;\red255\green255\blue255;}
} her trailer ....

[wreckless]

you've spun yourself in circles and derailed your own thread lol.

[mostpost]

Lol what a joke. You make a reality handicaping thread 10 daya before the race is drawn. Real players who bet real $$ don't make decisions until they see pps. And just to be clear, Rock Hard Ten was a better horse then Cali Chrome.
You're really not much better than Mad Scientist. A lot of chaff, no wheat. Aren't you the guy who tossed California Chrome from both the Derby and the Preakness? How did that work for out for you?

I'm starting to think you're Bigmack come back under a new identity. :rolleyes:

[taxicab]

Mostpost -

She went to great lengths to paint a very vivid picture. She just did not say I was hanging from any tree but a oak tree and not just any oak tree but the tallest oak tree and you don't think she was talking about me being lynched ??? C'mon you struck me as one of the more intelligent people on this site ....

Taxicab - you borrow all the phrases from that southern lady you want to. And I have no doubt that she was raised in the south. I bet she has a big confederate flag flying outside{\rtf1\ansi\ansicpg1252
{\fonttbl}
{\colortbl;\red255\green255\blue255;}
} her trailer ....

Tisk.
Tisk..
Tisk.......Mad Scientist.
I do believe we've touched a nerve.
Hey.....I thought that's what you were shooting for. :D

[Mad Scientist]

Taxicab- you got me all figured out. You and your little lady from the south have touched a nerve by saying I should be lynched. I guess you is some proud racist there ain't you. Why stop there. ??? Why don't you say what you really want to say to me taxicab .... Why don't you go all in taxicab ???? I am sure there are a lot of good ole boys here from the south that will back you up. C'mon taxicab .... You know my uppity comments have really bothered you and grits. You know that you and grits run this plantation , I mean run this site. Why don't you tell me how you really feel .... Grits told me how she really feels by saying I should be lynched. Is she more man than you are ???

[ArlJim78]

Lol what a joke. You make a reality handicaping thread 10 daya before the race is drawn. Real players who bet real $$ don't make decisions until they see pps. And just to be clear, Rock Hard Ten was a better horse then Cali Chrome.

Really? Wicked Strong is the most likely winner of the race. The other 2 have no chance at all.
lol. It only took you two minutes to contradict yourself.

[thaskalos]

Something tells me that PA won't be too amused by this thread.

[taxicab]

Taxicab- you got me all figured out. You and your little lady from the south have touched a nerve by saying I should be lynched. I guess you is some proud racist there ain't you. Why stop there. ??? Why don't you say what you really want to say to me taxicab .... Why don't you go all in taxicab ???? I am sure there are a lot of good ole boys here from the south that will back you up. C'mon taxicab .... You know my uppity comments have really bothered you and grits. You know that you and grits run this plantation , I mean run this site. Why don't you tell me how you really feel .... Grits told me how she really feels by saying I should be lynched. Is she more man than you are ???

LOL.
Meltdown in Aisle 8....
Dude if they put your brain in a Bumble Bee it would fly backwards. :lol: :lol:

[HuggingTheRail]

Is it politically incorrect if I ask if I can Tie a Yellow Ribbon around the Old Oak Tree?

[Clocker]

http://cache.blippitt.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Popcorn-02-Stephen-Colbert.gif


I just LOVE this thread. Anyone know what it's about?

[wiffleball whizz]

Something tells me that PA won't be too amused by this thread.

Thissssssssssss!!!!!!

I'm going to work at 2am I wish I could lay 50/1 this thread will be locked or closed by 10:15 when I get out!!!!!!!

Thread will never make it till dawn!!

[mostpost]

Thissssssssssss!!!!!!

I'm going to work at 2am I wish I could lay 50/1 this thread will be locked or closed by 10:15 when I get out!!!!!!!

Thread will never make it till dawn!!
Someone, in one of these threads, suggested Mad Scientist be banned. I said I didn't think so. I thought he would tone himself down. That is not happening. If anything it's getting worse.

But I don't think he will be banned until the Beat the Boss contest is over.

I think more than one person has suggested banning Mad Scientist. That should be a hint to him. If one person doesn't like you, maybe the problem is with him. If a whole bunch of people don't like you, maybe the problem is with you. On second thought, take out that second maybe.

[nijinski]

Note to Mad Scientist, Chrome is a bad bet in the Belmont, and that's not a fantasy. The last 11 horses that won the first two legs and ran in the Belmont lost, and you could have found thousands of people like you who seemed sure they were going to win. The bottom line is, yes, he may win, but he will be a bad bet. If you like to bet chalk, you can find much better favorites.

Yeah, he looks good on paper, but these are not older horses. These horses are lightly raced three year olds, which means that any one of them can step up and improve and beat him. Birdstone was a promising two year old. But, he struggled as a three year old. Coming into the Belmont, on paper, Birdstone looked like a viable upset candidate if he could run back to his two year old form. To do that, he had to improve off his recent races, which he did.

This is no a Seattle Slew or Secretariat situation. California Chrome is not a lock.

It looks like Birdstone and Royal Assault were the only two horses in that
race wearing caulks , which I believe at the time had no regulation on them.
Both were longshots . Forst and third .
No problem though .CC will have a sinus band symbol next to his name .

[PaceAdvantage]

CC at +115 tell me everything I need to know about the race.......he's not winning......I had the same exact thought when I saw these types of prices being put up. The guys making these lines are definitely not "fantasy handicappers" as Mad Scientist likes to categorize things.

[PaceAdvantage]

Let me explain it this way. Fantasy handicappers can spend the next two weeks coming up with all sorts of superfectas that don't involve CC since they offer such great value. Personally I don't see what the value is in a losing ticket but hey to each their own. If I followed that logic I would just buy mega million tickets. They only cost a $1 and you can win hundreds of millions . I mean what better value is there than that ? But I don't like losing tickets regardless of what they would have paid if they had actually won and to me any superfecta that has CC nowhere to be found on it is a losing ticket.

Sure CC could take a bad step or the stewards could DQ him but I am old school like Rich Perloff I don't take the possibility of a horse getting pulled up or being DQ as a handicapping angle when figuring out a race. Those are just unlucky things that there is a very small chance of happening and if they happen they happen. It's like there's a chance I'll get hit by lightning everytime I leave my house but I still leave my house. .Once most lotteries get to the 140-150 million mark, they are indeed approaching value bet territory if you are the only winner...unless you start factoring taxes and whatnot.

So yes, even the lottery can be a value bet when the payoff gets to a certain point.

[PaceAdvantage]

There is no way that any horse player with even a minimal amount of experience can look at the past performances for the Belmont and say that based off all the horses running lines that 4 horses figure to finish ahead of CC. That's just not being reality based. CC just towers above the competition on paper by any handicapping metric you want to use .You clearly don't understand what it takes to be a winner at this game. Which is why I must chalk it up to luck and a short sample that you are currently doing quite well in our little contest.

CC can tower over the competition as you say, but if the prices on this "mythical four" that you keep talking about are high enough, they are indeed worth a bet. If something has a 1 in 500 chance of happening, but is paying you $1,001, it's certainly worth a bet. Over those 500 chances you are betting $1,000 (500 x $2) and if you get paid more than $1,000 for that one winner, it is so worth a bet, it's not even funny.

That's what value based handicappers are thinking...why you so severely fail to grasp this concept is beyond me.

[PaceAdvantage]

I can't believe I'm losing to this guy. He is now banned from all but the selections section. I'm done and at this point, don't care.