Wicked Strong vs. ROC vs. Commanding Curve

[Mad Scientist]

My apologies to Smarty Cide. I know the horse vs. horse comparisons are you thing, but I have not seen you on the forum a lot lately, so I did not know if you were going to post anything for the Belmont.

In my opinion the 3 logical horses to complete the super behind CC are Wicked Strong, ROC, Commanding Curve. Just started doing my initial handicapping for the Belmont and my first reaction is that these 3 horses are really hard to separate on paper and they all have certain intangibles that can be considered pros and cons, so I am just looking to get the thoughts of others to see if there is anything I am missing when handicapping these 3 horses.

( Sorry to all you Tonalist fans but he is going to have to beat me in the Belmont. I am taking a stand against )

[goatchaser]

My apologies to Smarty Cide. I know the horse vs. horse comparisons are you thing, but I have not seen you on the forum a lot lately, so I did not know if you were going to post anything for the Belmont.

In my opinion the 3 logical horses to complete the super behind CC are Wicked Strong, ROC, Commanding Curve. Just started doing my initial handicapping for the Belmont and my first reaction is that these 3 horses are really hard to separate on paper and they all have certain intangibles that can be considered pros and cons, so I am just looking to get the thoughts of others to see if there is anything I am missing when handicapping these 3 horses.

( Sorry to all you Tonalist fans but he is going to have to beat me in the Belmont. I am taking a stand against )
TVg mentioned that people in the Wicked camp are 50-50 on him running in the Belmont because of a fast work out he had. Usually not a good sign if they say their looking at other races on the same card.

[Mad Scientist]

Are you sure it was Wicked Strong they were talking about ? I know earlier today I heard one of the TVG guys I think it was Matt Caruthers say that SI's people said he was 50/50 and that they were looking at the Met Mile and Woody Stephens.

[goatchaser]

Are you sure it was Wicked Strong they were talking about ? I know earlier today I heard one of the TVG guys I think it was Matt Caruthers say that SI's people said he was 50/50 and that they were looking at the Met Mile and Woody Stephens.
My Bad...Your right.

[precocity]

RIDE ON CURLIN :ThmbUp: TRUE GRITTY COLT!

[clocker7]

Wicked Strong had so much tragicomical trouble down the stretch in the KD that he has to be taken very seriously. Not sure whether he only is a 10f horse with one run in him, or a bona-fide 12f horse, but we'll find out in 2 weeks.

[Mad Scientist]

Well yeah but you can ask the same exact question about commanding curve is he a 10f one run horse or a 12f horse ? and than I think it's pretty obvious that ROC is not a 12f horse but his gritty always try hard style may still make him the second best horse at 12f.

That's my point. These 3 horses are very hard too seperate and with CC such a short price and these 3 figuring to have the next 3 lowest odds if you want to make any money your not going to be able to just simply box them all.

People are going to have to make tough decisions and take some stands if they hope to make a few bucks in the Belmont.

[ILovetheInner]

Totally wouldn't rule out Tonalist. Sure the off going moved him forward, but he was supposed to win and did so convincingly. Was talked up in FL and past his debut his only lost to the subsequent FL Derby winner. His conditioner is extremely dangerous, and you never quite know about the decisions, but he was Rosario's option over ROC. Wicked Strong is a no brainer. He did not get a good trip in Louisville, coming into that off a big effort in which he dusted Samraat and Social Inclusion. He's got upside and is apt to improve off the Derby. The Belmont really flirts you into looking at longshots, but were he to excel it would look obvious in the aftermath. Of all the colts loading into the gate that Saturday, he is the one most likely to move several lengths forward off his last effort. That's what you want in a Belmont horse. A win over the track doesn't hurt either.

[Mad Scientist]

I just can't get on board with tonalist. I think he's a cut below but I do agree with what you say about wicked strong. I am leaning towards him being my second choice.

A possible super could be ...

1.Chrome

2. Wicked Strong

3. ROC and Commanding Curve

4. Everyone else except for commissioner who is just a complete toss out.

Ticket cost for $1 super if 13 horses go ... $18

[precocity]

I just can't get on board with tonalist. I think he's a cut below but I do agree with what you say about wicked strong. I am leaning towards him being my second choice.

A possible super could be ...

1.Chrome

2. Wicked Strong

3. ROC and Commanding Curve

4. Everyone else except for commissioner who is just a complete toss out.

Ticket cost for $1 super if 13 horses go ... $18
TWO COLTS IN THIS RACE CC-ROC YOU SEE!!!!

[Mad Scientist]

I like ROC he is as game as they come . Always going to give you all he has, but the way he stalled out in the Preakness worries me a little. I just don't know if he can sustain a bid at the Belmont distance. No doubt he will keep trying till the end and can hit the board but just concerned that wicked or commanding curve can get rolling late and pass him for second, but with that being said he is a obvious must use in the tri and super .

[precocity]

I like ROC he is as game as they come . Always going to give you all he has, but the way he stalled out in the Preakness worries me a little. I just don't know if he can sustain a bid at the Belmont distance. No doubt he will keep trying till the end and can hit the board but just concerned that wicked or commanding curve can get rolling late and pass him for second, but with that being said he is a obvious must use in the tri and super .
I AGREE WITH THAT! :ThmbUp:

[jettroofer]

RIDE ON CURLIN :ThmbUp: TRUE GRITTY COLT!

You're my boy, Blue!! ROC is gritty and will prove to be one of the better horses out of this crop. I understand those who point out his lack of finding the winners circle thus far but he is always around picking up a piece. I think there is true upside with this one. I think he is a solid contender to hit he board and one of a few who can take advantage if Chrome takes a bad step.

[Redboard]

Thoughts about Ride On Curlin. I took a look at the closers who ran in Kentucky Derby and the Belmont since 2006. Here is how they finished in the Belmont.

*skipped Preakness

2013 Belmont
Orb - 3rd
Golden Soul* - 9th
Will Take Charge – 10th
------------------------------
2012 Belmont
Dullahan* - 7th
Optimizer 10th
-----------------------
2011 Belmont
Brilliant Speed* – 3rd
Animal Kingdom – 6th
Mucho Macho Man – 7th
Master Of Hounds* – 10th
-------------------------
2010 Belmont
Ice Box* – 9th
-------------------------------------
2009 Belmont
Mine That Bird – 3rd
Chocolate Candy*- 9th
Flying Private – 6th
----------------------------
2008 Belmont
Dennis Of Cork* – 2nd
Anal Canal* - 3rd (DH)
------------------------------
2007 Belmont
Curlin – 2nd
Tiago* - 3rd
----------------------------------
2006 Belmont
Jazil* - 1st
Deputy Gliters – 11th
Steppenwolfer – 4th


None have won the Belmont. Orb, Curlin and Mine That Bird are the only ones who hit the board in the Belmont that also ran in the Preakness. Again, this is not a list of all of the closers who ran in the Belmont, only those who ran in the Kentucky Derby. Some might disagree that Will Take Charge was a closer, but if you look at his Derby and Preakness, he was coming from pretty far back.
Of Course Jazil and Birdstone did win the Belmont, but again, they skipped the Preakness. If ROC skipped the Preakness, that would be a horse of a different color.
Based on this , Ride On Curlin is a toss for me, at this point. He’ll be an underlay as far as the place and show bet. Tons will wheel him at the bottom of their ex/tri/sup. That closing style is just too difficult to do three times in five weeks IMO.

[Matt Bryan]

Anal Canal? Ha.

[BettinBilly]

ROC looks beastly in his workouts to me, and he glides around the track. Very powerful contender.

Wicked had a bad trip in the Derby, and I favored him up to the point where he drew outside post. His ability to come in 4th in the Derby, IMO, was incredible.

Commanding Curve is also a serious Contender IMO, and worthy of some serious consideration.

Chrome is Chrome. We've beat that horse to death in conversation. Nothing to add.

I would have to agree in theory with Mad Scientist. A Super with the above contenders would be my impulse pick. I've got a lot more capping to do before I post any true picks. I may construct a few Trifectas based on these contenders. A straight up bet to win? Too early for that decision.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I would throw in the exotics any horse that has run in The Champagne the year before.