Al Capone wudda loved it ...

[BeatTheChalk]

You talk about bet downs....at Haw today ... a 12/1 ML horse
goes off as the 8/5 Fave and wins ..Next race 8/1 ML
goes as the 9/5 fave. wins it. Could the line maker be that
far off ? :) In one of the movies about Capone..I recall
that Alphonse said something to the effect of ...
" I dont care what he pays .. as long as I know he is
gonna win " LOL ....

[WJ47]

I see stuff like that happen all the time. Sometimes it will be so obvious that one of the TVG announcers will point it out. Like a horse that is getting strong support and he appears to be a total pig. And youre thinking to yourself, why is everyone betting this horse? Like finished 7th, 8th, and 6th in his last three starts and now he is 5/1, but was 30/1 on the morning line. So many times that horse goes on to win. But sometimes betting coups fail or the jock gives a bad ride or the horse stumbles, and then you can get some nice odds on a horse the next time he runs, if you notice a strange pattern of support and the horse loses badly. Alot of times the odds are meatier when the horse runs again.

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally posted by BeatTheChalk
You talk about bet downs....at Haw today ... a 12/1 ML horse
goes off as the 8/5 Fave and wins ..Next race 8/1 ML
goes as the 9/5 fave. wins it. Could the line maker be that
far off ? :) In one of the movies about Capone..I recall
that Alphonse said something to the effect of ...
" I dont care what he pays .. as long as I know he is
gonna win " LOL ....

Jim Miller is the morning line maker at Hawthorne. A very hard working, personable, a nice person. However, his line making skills are not in line ( get not in line) with his general good qualities.

My advice to you is do not put too much creedence in Hawthorne's ML.

AP is a differnt story. Mike Battaglia does AP and his line is usually solid.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

percption is reality

[JimL]

Beat The Chalk, What was your opinion of the two horses? JimL

[Valuist]

AP's morning line is definitely not solid. I think Battaglia is a very mediocre line maker. The NYRA tracks and SoCal tracks seem to be the best.

[BeatTheChalk]

I actually did not look at the races ahead of time. I keep records
for the 5 major tracks. Since I started this ** trouble :) I
will download the races and see how the winners looked.

[El Paso B]

I don't understand what you guys are complaining about.

The morning line is a guess as to how the betting public will bet their money. If a morning line gets bet in a totaly different direction, you can bet you are betting against other sharp handicappers and not an uninformed public. It is difficult to make money when all the pros/sharpies are betting big bucks and landing on the same horse.

If the post-time odds are dramatically different from the morning line odds and the post-time odds leader always wins, it is time to change tracks. It is like the old saying that goes: If you sit down at a poker table and don't know who the sucker is, IT'S YOU.

The farther the morning line is off from the horse that has the best chance of winning and if the betting follows the morning line, the more money that is being bet by the ignorant masses on horses that don't have a chance of winning. We make more money on bets when we bet on horses that ARE NOT the morning line odds favorite and are not the post-time favorite.

Stupid money following the morning line means the odds maker did a good job setting the morning line. Bottom line is stupid money following the low-odds morning line horse because a person can't handicap means more in my pocket and in the pockets of those of us who can handicap.
:D

[BeatTheChalk]

I thought my post would appear .. but dont see it .. at any rate
BOTH of the big bet down horses...looked very good on paper..
They both were in the top 3 Bris Prime Power numbers. And
actually both horses ran 2nd in the last race...with no big
class problems. Thanks to all who posted in regards to the
drop downs in odds. I must say that I see this happening
in Illinois and Maryland...much more than NY Or Calif and Fla

[kenwoodallpromos]

I remember the official track and newpaper handicappers around Chicago were lousy- like 30% wins, 58% ITM/ Good saying about poker! I say "I don't mind a fixed race if I know what the fix is!" LOL!! Check out the first day of each Ca fair for unusual M/L!