Victor Espinoza @ Belmont dreadful!

[TheEdge07]

Hasn't ridden there since 2008..

2 for 65 lifetime at Belmont..Yikes:eek: :eek:

[horses4courses]

Hasn't ridden there since 2008..

2 for 65 lifetime at Belmont..Yikes:eek: :eek:

He's never ridden a horse this good there.

No - I didn't check through the 65.
Don't have to.

[Saratoga_Mike]

War Emblem was a decent horse

[TheEdge07]

War Emblem was a decent horse

West coast joc...im sure hes ridden some good horses at Belmont.

[anotherCAfan]

Victor's stats at Belmont are not good! One of the guys on TVG this morning (Matt C?) said that Victor should ride some at Belmont in advance of the big race. I agree. Hopefully he can ride the week before or something to familiarize himself with the track.

[dannyhill]

Not a bad idea with a Triple crown on the line. Spend the week prior at Belmont, veteran rider or not. Likely the owners would pay the tab, as it would be in their best interests.
Great story and even though i will be wagering against him, i will be very much rooting for him to win.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I assume most of his rides have been in graded stakes events where he was obligated to ride to keep future mounts? I'd like to know what the avg odds were on his BEL horses?

[bks]

Small sample size in any event. May not mean much.

[Thebigguy]

Small sample size in any event. May not mean much.

It means nothing, at all.

[Stillriledup]

Victor's stats at Belmont are not good! One of the guys on TVG this morning (Matt C?) said that Victor should ride some at Belmont in advance of the big race. I agree. Hopefully he can ride the week before or something to familiarize himself with the track.

Actually it was me. ;)

See post 7.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=113706

[horses4courses]

Victor's stats at Belmont are not good! One of the guys on TVG this morning (Matt C?) said that Victor should ride some at Belmont in advance of the big race. I agree. Hopefully he can ride the week before or something to familiarize himself with the track.

I heard Zoe Cadman suggest that on HRTV this morning.
Can't agree.

An extra week of riding at a track he's not very familiar with won't help much.

Heck, Art Sherman has it all figured out.
Have Victor rate the horse behind the early speed while staying fairly close.
Then, with about three eighths left, it's go time.

The horse will either have it, or he won't.
He's up against some good horses who will have had more rest than he has.
This won't be easy, with or without nasal strips.

[pandy]

Agree with last post. They are going to stalk the leader, or leaders, so Victor could ride every race at Belmont from now until then and it won't make a bit of difference.

[ukbro00]

Hasn't ridden there since 2008..

2 for 65 lifetime at Belmont..Yikes:eek: :eek:

This is fascinating. Where did you find this stat?

[Valuist]

It looks like CC will be over even money. Basically around 3-2ish on Bookmaker right now. 3-2 with a rider who's 3% at the track. Its your money if you want to bet it. Seen the random nature of this race, no reason at all to take that low a price.

[SandyW]

War Emblem was a decent horse

Front runner only, stumbled coming out of the gate and it was all over for him in The Belmont.

From Wiki:
The Kentucky-bred War Emblem, dark brown with a stark white demarkation between his eyes, lost the Triple Crown (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_Crown_of_Thoroughbred_Racing) bid to Sarava (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarava) at the Belmont Stakes (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belmont_Stakes). Sarava had odds of 70-1. War Emblem stumbled and nearly fell to his knees out of the gate coming out in last place and surged to the lead in the final turn before fading quickly at the top of the stretch. The Belmont attracted the biggest crowd in the track's history with 103,222 spectators.[1] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Emblem#cite_note-1)

Baffert said of the Belmont, "He was so one-dimensional and such an irritable horse as it was, as soon as he was behind horses, I had to sit there for 2½ minutes waiting for the race to be over." As he approached the quarter pole, Tom Durkin called, "And War Emblem is toiling as we turn for home."

[horses4courses]

It looks like CC will be over even money. Basically around 3-2ish on Bookmaker right now. 3-2 with a rider who's 3% at the track. Its your money if you want to bet it. Seen the random nature of this race, no reason at all to take that low a price.

I would bet heavily that if CC makes it to post, there will be no even money in sight. 3/5, or 1/2 are far more likely.
The 3/2 that's available now won't be around long once this nasal strip thing has been resolved.

[pandy]

Espinoza did have what I personally felt was a bad ride in the Breeders Cup juvenile at Belmont with an undefeated Baffert horse years ago. I can't remember the horses name. Vindication maybe? But if memory serves me correct, the horse was undefeated in 4 starts, the rail was dead at Belmont and the track was favoring stalkers and closers and Victor rushed his colt up to the lead on the rail, set the pace and tired.

[GMB@BP]

Espinoza did have what I personally felt was a bad ride in the Breeders Cup juvenile at Belmont with an undefeated Baffert horse years ago. I can't remember the horses name. Vindication maybe? But if memory serves me correct, the horse was undefeated in 4 starts, the rail was dead at Belmont and the track was favoring stalkers and closers and Victor rushed his colt up to the lead on the rail, set the pace and tired.

Vindication was unbeaten and ridden by Mike Smith.

The horse you are thinking of was Officer who was a brilliant sprinter at two but really fell off at distance.

Its an interesting story with Victor and Baffert, had to do with a horse that one of Victor's friends owned and had with Baffert. What is unusual is Baffert usually goes through riders and it comes back full circle but Victor to this day has never ridden a horse for Baffert.

[pandy]

Vindication was unbeaten and ridden by Mike Smith.

The horse you are thinking of was Officer who was a brilliant sprinter at two but really fell off at distance.

Its an interesting story with Victor and Baffert, had to do with a horse that one of Victor's friends owned and had with Baffert. What is unusual is Baffert usually goes through riders and it comes back full circle but Victor to this day has never ridden a horse for Baffert.

Yes, Officer! Thank you. As soon as Victor went to the rail and the lead I knew he was done, the rail was completely dead that day. Vindication was the horse that Smith went 4 for 4 on, won the Breeders Cup, and then Baffert took him off the horse.

[FrankieFigs]

I would bet heavily that if CC makes it to post, there will be no even money in sight. 3/5, or 1/2 are far more likely.
The 3/2 that's available now won't be around long once this nasal strip thing has been resolved.

I'm sure TVG will offer 3/2 one more time....

[Tom]

The Mig has put the bug in his ear to come here early and ride few days.
Heard i ton Byk at noon.

Good idea.

[IrishRail76]

This is fascinating. Where did you find this stat?


TheEdge07 and pandy are right. Victor Espinosa is primarily a California jockey.

You might have Victor Espinosa confused with Jose Espinosa. Jose is Victor's brother and he was usually in the Top 10 percent of winning jockeys at Belmont (double-check, as I am winging it here).

In a tragic accident, Jose was thrown from his mount and suffered a brain injury. Taking the advice of the doctors, he has suspended his career as a jockey. Jose was at Churchill Downs and Pimlico to watch his brother win.

[Valuist]

I would bet heavily that if CC makes it to post, there will be no even money in sight. 3/5, or 1/2 are far more likely.
The 3/2 that's available now won't be around long once this nasal strip thing has been resolved.

The nasal strip thing is meaningless, IMO. I've never seen any proof that horses move up with them. I'm surprised they are still being used. They seemed to be used a lot about 10 years ago until people realized they really didn't do any good.

[Peter Berry]

Hasn't ridden there since 2008..

2 for 65 lifetime at Belmont..Yikes:eek: :eek:
C.C. Rider gets the job done this time.

[horses4courses]

Yes, Officer! Thank you. As soon as Victor went to the rail and the lead I knew he was done, the rail was completely dead that day. Vindication was the horse that Smith went 4 for 4 on, won the Breeders Cup, and then Baffert took him off the horse.

If I recall, Vindication never raced as a 3yo, due to injury.
Very nice horse, and I remember cashing pretty good on him in the BC.

[horses4courses]

The nasal strip thing is meaningless, IMO. I've never seen any proof that horses move up with them. I'm surprised they are still being used. They seemed to be used a lot about 10 years ago until people realized they really didn't do any good.

That wasn't my point.
I don't think they mean much, either.

There was a small danger that one of the owners might dig his heels in
should the NY authorities continue to disallow their use.
Your 3/2 was an automatic loser, then, if CC didn't run.

Where I slipped up was in saying that the price wouldn't last long.
Currently, it's still available with Ladbroke's.

[alhattab]

Espinoza did have what I personally felt was a bad ride in the Breeders Cup juvenile at Belmont with an undefeated Baffert horse years ago. I can't remember the horses name. Vindication maybe? But if memory serves me correct, the horse was undefeated in 4 starts, the rail was dead at Belmont and the track was favoring stalkers and closers and Victor rushed his colt up to the lead on the rail, set the pace and tired.

The ride from that BC that would get CC beat was Espinoza's ride on Spain. She was probably best but he moved too early deep into the turn. Spain sprinted clear into the lane and opened up, but got tagged on the wire by the Head Waiter and Unbridled Elaine. If I recall correctly, Spain's trainer Lukas was absolutely furious. Real Quiet anyone?

http://www.breederscup.com/gallery/2001-breeders-cup-distaff

[ultracapper]

One of the very serious complaints about Victor Espinoza on a day to day basis in SoCal is he moves too early. He's done it too many times to count in many a claiming race I've watched over the years. The sweeping turn that leads into the long Belmont stretch is no place to be making premature moves. This is seriously one of main concerns with the race that is coming up. Espinoza better have his head on right and not get drawn into taking off too early.

[JustRalph]

"They don't come any better than Victor Espinoza in dirt routes. Since 1998: 467-for-2,443 (19% wins) with an amazing $2.10 ROI."

Doug Salvatore tweeted the above a few days ago. He must not be moving too early very often

[ultracapper]

"They don't come any better than Victor Espinoza in dirt routes. Since 1998: 467-for-2,443 (19% wins) with an amazing $2.10 ROI."

Doug Salvatore tweeted the above a few days ago. He must not be moving too early very often

Watch him day to day, you'd see it more often than you'd care to. In all fairness though, the past 6 to 8 months, he's been riding quite well. He had a couple years there where he was a pain in the YKW.

[taxicab]

Hasn't ridden there since 2008..

2 for 65 lifetime at Belmont..Yikes:eek: :eek:


Lifetime on California Chrome.......6 for 6.
By a combined 28 lengths.
Over four different race tracks.
I like his chances.

[Dark Horse]

Espinoza is in NY and started this Sunday at Belmont, but only has five or so races until Saturday. Big disadvantage against the local riders.

[SandyW]

Espinoza is in NY and started this Sunday at Belmont, but only has five or so races until Saturday. Big disadvantage against the local riders.

Not that bad of a disadvantage when you have the best horse by far.

Remember Eddie Arcaro once said that "he never won a race without a horse."

[Stillriledup]

Yes, Officer! Thank you. As soon as Victor went to the rail and the lead I knew he was done, the rail was completely dead that day. Vindication was the horse that Smith went 4 for 4 on, won the Breeders Cup, and then Baffert took him off the horse.

Maybe Victor was signing autographs outside the on the street after taping the Letterman show and he missed the earlier races so he didnt know the bias? ;)

[Dark Horse]

Not that bad of a disadvantage when you have the best horse by far.

Remember Eddie Arcaro once said that "he never won a race without a horse."

CC won the first two races with ease because Espinoza's rides were impeccable. Underestimating the field, at this point, would be a big mistake. Check out how many lengths Commanding Curve made up in the Derby, even with a slow pace:

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?BORP=P&STYLE=EQB&DAY=D&tid=CD&dt=05/03/2014&ctry=USA&race=11

This is a tough track. In terms of timing, Espinoza is at a real disadvantage versus the riders who know the place inside out. He needs another perfect trip, and now he's risking that with a less than ideal preparation. There's a real possibility that he'll move too early, imo. And that can be the difference. Just ask Real Quiet.

[Mystic]

CC won the first two races with ease because Espinoza's rides were impeccable. Underestimating the field, at this point, would be a big mistake. Check out how many lengths Commanding Curve made up in the Derby, even with a slow pace:

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?BORP=P&STYLE=EQB&DAY=D&tid=CD&dt=05/03/2014&ctry=USA&race=11

This is a tough track. In terms of timing, Espinoza is at a real disadvantage versus the riders who know the place inside out. He needs another perfect trip, and now he's risking that with a less than ideal preparation. There's a real possibility that he'll move too early, imo. And that can be the difference. Just ask Real Quiet.

Real Quiet would lolly gag around once in front and Steven's knew that. Chrome doesn't and will keep on pulling away if allowed.

[bks]

Check out how many lengths Commanding Curve made up in the Derby, even with a slow pace:

The pace was not slow.

[ultracapper]

Vindication retired after the BC Juvy if I recall correctly. Smith wasn't taken off. I remember being on another forum when this happened and I was stunned that he could go to stud so early in life. That was when I learned horses are damn near ready to bread the minute they learn to walk (Being sarcastic, but you get my drift)

[TheEdge07]

Lifetime on California Chrome.......6 for 6.
By a combined 28 lengths.
Over four different race tracks.
I like his chances.


Make it 6 for 7.

[taxicab]

Make it 6 for 7.
Judging by the way you're bringing up all my old posts, some would suggest I might of hurt your feelings in the last few weeks.
Let me apologize to you young Lady/Man(not sure of which).......I promise to be kinder and gentler in the future so you won't cry when you read my posts. :jump:
Looking at the bright side of things........at least your math is better than your spelling. :eek: :bang:

[TheEdge07]

Judging by the way you're bringing up all my old posts, some would suggest I might of hurt your feelings in the last few weeks.
Let me apologize to you young Lady/Man(not sure of which).......I promise to be kinder and gentler in the future so you won't cry when you read my posts. :jump:
Looking at the bright side of things........at least your math is better than your spelling. :eek: :bang:

Taxi i think your a very knowledgeable racing fan but i also think you made CC a little better then he was.
Im pretty sure if CC had won the TC you wouldve made him a alltime great,when in fact all he is -Ver nice horse who like others had a good run.

[taxicab]

Taxi i think your a very knowledgeable racing fan but i also think you made CC a little better then he was.
Im pretty sure if CC had won the TC you wouldve made him a alltime great,when in fact all he is -Ver nice horse who like others had a good run.
Nice try....
All I did was use facts off of CC's resume to make a point and in some instances form an opinion.
You're the one that rehashed my old posts and had a problem with what I wrote.
Here's some advice for you Edge,don't worry so much about what I write and focus on your own stuff.
You're welcome.

[Dad4Gloria]

Lifetime on California Chrome.......6 for 6.
By a combined 28 lengths.
Over four different race tracks.
I like his chances.



Good call.