Longshot?

[beefas]

Guys ,,what s your take on longshots, I mean what are your top 3 things you look for in picking one out who has a chance?.. Was at suffolk yesterday and I like to play long odds horse's, but I just don't know how in the world some of these win.? They have no speed , have not won a race, have no form , work outs are terrible, but yet here he comes down the stretch by 3 ... I'm lost!!..can someone look at suffolk downs from yesterday's races and tell me how these horses won in the 5 th and 9 th race so I have a clue.. :bang:

[BlueChip@DRF]

It usually happens in maiden races or low-level claimers.

[thaskalos]

It happens in all sorts of races...and it's one of the great mysteries of the game. You can present many reasons for the best horse losing a race...but you'd have your hands full explaining how the seemingly WORST horse in the race is able to overtake nine supposedly faster ones.

It's best not to torture yourself about it though. Call it an occupational hazard...and move on to the next race.

[Some_One]

A redboarding take of the two races yesterday:
In both races you had the favs with big recent numbers and the winners who had shown the form sometime last year to be competitive in their respective races. Both races had questionable favs (in R5, it was the horse with good turf number, but poor dirt figs and in R9 it was the fav making its first start in winners & at track).

Horses aren't machines, and there is a lot of variability in performance, just because a horse is the best horse doesn't mean it's a 100% chance to win. On the flip side, just because a horse isn't even in the top half of chances to win a race, means it is a zero percent chance to win. Both of those winners were somewhere between 7-10% chances to win IMO, and on this day they did and got value for their victory.

[traynor]

Guys ,,what s your take on longshots, I mean what are your top 3 things you look for in picking one out who has a chance?.. Was at suffolk yesterday and I like to play long odds horse's, but I just don't know how in the world some of these win.? They have no speed , have not won a race, have no form , work outs are terrible, but yet here he comes down the stretch by 3 ... I'm lost!!..can someone look at suffolk downs from yesterday's races and tell me how these horses won in the 5 th and 9 th race so I have a clue.. :bang:

I am probably not the only one to have noticed this, but it is often more useful (in finding longshots) to look at the trainers rather than the horses.

Or--stated another way--ask yourself why a reasonably competent trainer would enter a horse in a race that the public "overlooks" (meaning it is not obviously one of the "best horses in the race")--but that wins the race. Not every race--because then it would be obvious to everyone. Often enough to be profitable, though.

There are patterns in the past performances of trainers that are as predictive (if you look for them) as the patterns in the past performances of horses. It takes a bit of thought and a bit of finesse, but the information is there. It just takes a little effort to uncover.

The upside is that the speed, pace, and class handicappers are dumping money into the pools on the losers.

[beefas]

Thks for the replys, I have a lot to learn!!.. I can see why this sport drives people nuts!! . But there's nothing like horse racing! Thks :cool:

[Robert Fischer]

To pick a longshot you have to know something good about a longshot that the public does not know, or you have to know something bad about the favorite that the public does not know.

Not every race has an answer which can be obtained by working backwards from the result, although with some results you will notice a significant circumstance or event that took place.

[dannyhill]

Thks for the replys, I have a lot to learn!!.. I can see why this sport drives people nuts!! . But there's nothing like horse racing! Thks :cool:
Make sure you watch the movie Long shot with Tim Conway.

[Bullet Plane]

5th Suf- the favorite .80 to 1 (the 1 Foreign Review) came in second in his last race after ding-donging down the stretch - due for a big bounce...

considering that last race was a huge form reversal... the race before that he lost by 29 lengths.


Second favorite the 5 Bridle Way Bay was coming back after a layoff since 9 Sep 13.

When the favorites look that bad, I think it kind of sets up for a longshot...

the winner was 2nd back off a much needed layoff, where he finished much better than the races before the layoff...

In the 9th at Suf...

the favorite ...3 Consoles Gotta Go, got loose on the lead in his last and won for fun, but had a history of run early fade, just like this race...

the second favorite, 8 Indigo charm, came in second in his last race, but had lost by mucho lengths in several races prior to that..

so, the winner 9 Big Effort was another 2nd off the layoff winner, who hadn't ran two races together in quite some time...probably has some nagging minor injury of some kind... the fact that he was putting two races together, had the race back, and was back with the same jockey, may of indicated an improved effort was forthcoming...

I didn't play these races.. the post just made me curious...

I didn't see anything that looked unusual for racing at that level, which is bottom of the barrel claiming races, where fitness, and who has had some rest, and whose feet aren't hurting today, lead more to the winners than form considerations...

these were Clm 4000Nland Clm 5000N2L...

[beefas]

Thks for the post bullet, I like the way you looked at these races and explaining your thoughts thk u. :cool:

[cashmachine]

Is it possible that such unthinkable wins happen just because winners were in unusually great shape, AND other horses were in bad shape? I read somewhere that shape of a horse is not constant, it is changing in time...

[dav4463]

In many races won by longshots; you can go back and find a reason for the horse winning.

Simply find those reasons before the race! :D



Here is something I do in races where I think the low odds horses are vulnerable.

I start handicapping by tossing the top 4 last race speed figures in a race with seven or more horses.

Then I look for reasons ... any reason to bet one of the horses left. Many times one or two will stick out for one reason or another.


Many times, using speed figures as an example, you will find a horse that consistently runs very close to the number of the top 4 last race speed horses.

That is a horse to watch.


Pick two of what is left. Play to win (and place if it is a real bomb 20-1+) and then play them under your top 4 originally eliminated. I've hit some nice payoffs this way.

[beefas]

I like it dav4463, will give it a go!! Thk u. :cool:

[HUSKER55]

I assign odds to each horse. My odds line groups by "could win", "will probably screw you", "why are you here" and "send to Borden". However, every once in awhile my odds line says "just point and click". If your odds line is fairly consistent, I hunt for a closer.

I put my $10 on that horse. Typically, (for me) the odds are 25 to 65 to one. Does not happen often. Off the top of my head, it paid off around 5 times this year.

My problem is with the "will probably screw you" group! :D

I know, I know......I am w o r k i n g on it.....

[limit2]

No need to be lost. Instead be consistent. Find the formula and play it out. If you like the fourth ML as long as it matches or is lower than post odds give it a go. Expect a $12 average $2 mutual over a month. It should work with flat bets and be enhanced with a modified up/down progression. lol

[cnollfan]

One longshot key is when the favorites are weak.

[BlueChip@DRF]

In many races won by longshots; you can go back and find a reason for the horse winning.

Simply find those reasons before the race! :D



Here is something I do in races where I think the low odds horses are vulnerable.

I start handicapping by tossing the top 4 last race speed figures in a race with seven or more horses.

Then I look for reasons ... any reason to bet one of the horses left. Many times one or two will stick out for one reason or another.


Many times, using speed figures as an example, you will find a horse that consistently runs very close to the number of the top 4 last race speed horses.

That is a horse to watch.


Pick two of what is left. Play to win (and place if it is a real bomb 20-1+) and then play them under your top 4 originally eliminated. I've hit some nice payoffs this way.

Very interesting! Thanks for posting this. Now I just have to know when the favorite is vulnerable. :confused:

[Hoofless_Wonder]

I assign odds to each horse. My odds line groups by "could win", "will probably screw you", "why are you here" and "send to Borden". However, every once in awhile my odds line says "just point and click". If your odds line is fairly consistent, I hunt for a closer.

I put my $10 on that horse. Typically, (for me) the odds are 25 to 65 to one. Does not happen often. Off the top of my head, it paid off around 5 times this year.

My problem is with the "will probably screw you" group! :D

I know, I know......I am w o r k i n g on it.....

:lol:

These late night gems are why I try to keep up with all the posts out here....

As for longshots, several things I look for are:

- vulnerable favorites
- the "dynamic" horse, with some past performances that are good enough to win mixed in with poor efforts - especially recent ones
- connections that are known to bring in the bombs
- win or exacta odds lower than expected
- the lightly raced horse that can improve dramatically
- the "chaos" races

There's TONs of books and other materials available for picking longshots, though often the examples provided are cherry picking the data. The lure of the longshot is very seductive - after cashing in on "an angle", beware the chase of the repeat of that angle - it's very hazardous to your bankroll.

[dav4463]

Very interesting! Thanks for posting this. Now I just have to know when the favorite is vulnerable. :confused:

definitely not at Mountaineer tonight! :mad:

[BettinBilly]

Finding value in Overlays is one thing, but sometimes true longshots just come out of the woodwork. At least that's what they appear to do with me.

As someone mentioned above, it's an interesting game at times. Our best laid plans and capping sometimes get thrown a curve.

And as a wise older Horseplayer once told me at the track 30 plus years ago, "That's why they call it gambling".