Who is still doubting?

[Smarty Cide]

Regardless of what happens at Belmont this hors ewill go down with some special horses. So who is still doubting this horse?

[TheEdge07]

Doubting hes good..no

Doubting he wins the TC..yes

[Smarty Cide]

Doubting hes good..no

Doubting he wins the TC..yes

thats fair, something always goes wrong at Belmont

but anyone who dont recognize that this horse is every bit as good as Smart Jones and Big Brown is a fool

[depalma113]

anyone who dont recognize that this horse is every bit as good as Smart Jones and Big Brown is a fool

As good? He's better than both of them.

[tucker6]

As good? He's better than both of them.
That was my exact thought when I read that post. :ThmbUp:

Edit to add that I liked both SJ and BB, so not a hater of either horse.

[TheEdge07]

As good? He's better than both of them...

Better then both...?BB went on to win on the turf with one career loss and dominate in both derby and Preakness..

Thats a fanatic statement...

Smarty Jones was huge in his Belmont loss..

If big if CC struggles in the Belmont to a 4th place finish will you still have the same opinion..

[BettinBilly]

Chrome is absolutely a great Thoroughbred and defines what a champion in our sport is to many of us.

I hope he goes on to win the TC. If he accomplishes this, the story will last generations. And....I can't wait for the movie. ;)

But one step at at time. The Belmont is a huge obstacle. Can he overcome it? Possibly. And that's the best we can say until we see him run at Belmont.

What a great Preakness. I really enjoyed it. I didn't win much, but the entertainment value was almost priceless to me.

[depalma113]

He's far more push button than either of those two.

[Smarty Cide]

ok let me refrain as good or better. the horse is amazing.

[tucker6]

..

Better then both...?BB went on to win on the turf with one career loss and dominate in both derby and Preakness..

Thats a fanatic statement...

Smarty Jones was huge in his Belmont loss..

If big if CC struggles in the Belmont to a 4th place finish will you still have the same opinion..
All those words still don't negate his opinion that CC is better than BB or SJ.

[onefast99]

Very impressed. Did you have to rent a Brinks truck?

[TheEdge07]

All those words still don't negate his opinion that CC is better than BB or SJ.

Yep..just a opinion not a fact..

[Mystic]

As good? He's better than both of them.

Will have to disagree. The numbers say otherwise, and this year is a very uninspiring crop of 3 yr olds.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

I'm still doubting. Terrible crop. No surprise really, that CC ran well today - it seems like at least half the Derby winners that run in the race hit the board.

Not so in the Belmont.

I said it before, and I'll say it again. I'll be shocked if he wins the Triple Crown. Very, very, very few horses have run well in all three legs of the Triple Crown over the last 20 years. CC has "looked good" winning the first two legs, but I think against very suspect competition. We'll see how he likes 12 furlongs, against some horses more rested, and then we'll see what he's made of....

[elysiantraveller]

Will have to disagree. The numbers say otherwise, and this year is a very uninspiring crop of 3 yr olds.

I agree. Smarty was a hell of a horse BB too just a bit more one dimensional.

I hate comparing horses from a decade ago to those running now. Unless of course its Ghostzapper and everyone is still running for 2nd ;) .

[SecretAgentMan]

Before the derby, several others & I stated Chrome was better than Big Brown, Funny Cide & was as good as Smarty & people laughed & mocked........now when he wins the triple crown, its gonna be interesting how people look at Chrome.

Before the derby, people didn't think Chrome was all that, now these same people are saying he's a decent horse & after he wins the crown, then they will say he's one of the best, lol!

Monday morning qb's........lol!

[SecretAgentMan]

Will have to disagree. The numbers say otherwise, and this year is a very uninspiring crop of 3 yr olds.


I have to agree with this years crop being weak......I've stated several times before the derby but I'm not taking anything away from Chrome because he's beaten anyone that he raced against past 6 races.

As for comparing Chrome against other past good horses, I've done it & maybe we shouldn't but it makes for a good discussion.

Michael Jordan dominated basketball & I think he's the greatest of all eras combined, IMO....... Same goes for Secretariat, he's the best horse of all eras combined IMO .......

I would love yo see Smarty, Brown, Chrome, Point Given & several others run against each other but that's not reality.......if Chrome fails to win the crown, he will be listed as the others that have failed to win it all, but if he wins the crown like I believe, he will be mentioned among the greatest horses of all time.

I absolutely love the story around this horse & it will make for a great book/movie.

[razorback5]

Before the derby, several others & I stated Chrome was better than Big Brown, Funny Cide & was as good as Smarty & people laughed & mocked........now when he wins the triple crown, its gonna be interesting how people look at Chrome.

Before the derby, people didn't think Chrome was all that, now these same people are saying he's a decent horse & after he wins the crown, then they will say he's one of the best, lol!

Monday morning qb's........lol!
So, you're telling me people can't change their mind based on actual results and not predicted results?

[JustRalph]

Color me worried. I think the horse looked pretty bad after the race.

It's a tall order. The last 1/16th at Belmont is where dreams go to die.....

[precocity]

VICTOR SAW ROC COMING ON HIS AZZ AND MOVE TO THE RAIL AND STARTED WIPPING AWAY? HMMM!HOPE HE WINS THE TRIPLE CROWN?

[PaceAdvantage]

As good? He's better than both of them.Based on what?

At this point in both their careers, how can you say CC is better than Big Brown. BB was pretty dominating too, as far as I can remember.

Smarty Jones and Big Brown were looked upon pre-Belmont as the best chances we've had for a TC in a long time, not just because they kept winning, but going into the Belmont, there didn't appear to be that much that could beat them.

This is the same this year. And we all saw how Smarty and BB got beat...

So I'm not sure how you can say CC is better than both of these two past horses looking at the same spot in their careers.

If he wins the Belmont, then you can say he's better then those two.

[PaceAdvantage]

Before the derby, several others & I stated Chrome was better than Big Brown, Funny Cide & was as good as Smarty & people laughed & mocked........Disagreement is not mockery.

You brought any mockery that actually happened on yourself.

[ILovetheInner]

Doubter here. If we x'd his name we would have winners of two classics having never won a stakes before (Commanding Curve and ROC), with three lifetime wins total shared between them. You can't hang your hat on that. This has been a convoluted year, with some key names missing, two of the major preps won by upsets and another major prep winner not even showing up. CC clearly has a lot of ability, a great move and a great mind and I think he is a mighty fine horse. But he's got a lot to prove before he enters greatness. That's not his fault - he can only run against what is put before him. But with that said, in terms of the normal challenges of the Belmont, it will be the toughest race he's faced besides. If I were a CC fan, I would be mighty worried about Tonalist, who is yet another to have gotten derailed on the KYD trail. Now he's back, in a big way, with Clement in his corner. Add Danza, and the dangers of potential grinders like Commanding Curve and Ride On Curlin, and there could be trouble. I think if he prevails, many will gladly embrace him...but right now, it's still a question what he's got when his mettle is tested. Too early to say. I myself am a Forego person....carrying way too much weight over a muddy strip he couldn't handle and still prevailing. It takes a lot to impress me, and right now all I can say is that this is a very nice racehorse. There has been no opportunity to prove much more than that. I think in the Belmont there will be, but I also think he will be in trouble. What he does there will answer much.

[BlueChip@DRF]

The Belmont is a race of attrition. You can pretty much throw out the speed figures.

[menifee]

CC is a great horse and I'm a believer. The Belmont will be tough on him though. The horses coming back are better competition and you don't know how he will handle the length of the race or the track. Additionally, you don't know how the pace scenario will work out.

Frankly, at the odds he will be bet down to, any serious handicapper would never bet him for that value given those variables. His Belmont will be much tougher than Smarty Jones or BB as I think the competition will be tougher. Danza is a pretty good horse as is ROC and Tonalist.

As a fan, I love the horse and want him to win. I think his best shot to win the race is to go to the lead. The pace in the Belmont is always misjudged and I'm a big believer that in races that are this long (regardless of class level) you never want to be a closer, but a speed horse that can run slow fractions on the lead.

[ultracapper]

..

Better then both...?BB went on to win on the turf with one career loss and dominate in both derby and Preakness..

Thats a fanatic statement...

Smarty Jones was huge in his Belmont loss..

If big if CC struggles in the Belmont to a 4th place finish will you still have the same opinion..

Smarty Jones ran HUGE in NY. That was a shame.

[Show Me the Wire]

Always been a believer. Has a very good turn of foot, tactical early speed, takes his track with him, and shows signs that he can handle longer distances.

[Stillriledup]

Regardless of what happens at Belmont this hors ewill go down with some special horses. So who is still doubting this horse?

Can you love the horse with all your heart and yet, doubt the PRICE?

Why does it always have to be a personal shot against a horse if you decide to bet against him just because he's an underlay?

[martini]

I'm still doubting. Terrible crop.

People say this every year about three-year-olds, year after year. It has been this way forever. The people who make such comments still follow racing and bet on the horses. It is usually only a year or two later that such people realize, "Wow, that was a decent three-year-old crop!"

[keithw84]

People say this every year about three-year-olds, year after year. It has been this way forever. The people who make such comments still follow racing and bet on the horses. It is usually only a year or two later that such people realize, "Wow, that was a decent three-year-old crop!"


Which of the recently maligned crops would you say is pretty good in retrospect? Most people think the 2007 crop was pretty good, so but I was not a fan yet at that time so I don't know what people said during that year.

[NY BRED]

While I respected CC's abilities in the Derby, I reviewed the Thoro-graph
analysis yesterday, and CC's numbers were clearly faster than any
of the field.
That said, I still respect pace analysis and the key
to that analysis is the assumption the race will run based on the running
style of the each horse.

I did witness several horses compromised
when the gate opened excluding CC which placed him in a golden position
to run to victory.

Like others, I love the story and insane odds of getting to this spot
for the owners, and yes, I will be at The Belmont to root CC home
for his courage and his connections who are turning the breeding
and racing world upside down.

The Belmont will test CC well beyond his first
two races of the Triple Crown, , not for his class and speed, but simply on his ability to beat well rested opponents including the longer
distance and surface of Belmont.

Truly a movie or a TV special regardless of the outcome!

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[burnsy]

..

Better then both...?BB went on to win on the turf with one career loss and dominate in both derby and Preakness..

Thats a fanatic statement...

Smarty Jones was huge in his Belmont loss..

If big if CC struggles in the Belmont to a 4th place finish will you still have the same opinion..

He's better than Big Brown already........you are right Smarty Jones ran huge in all 3 races and won many others. But this horse has raced way more consistently than Big Brown ever did. Big Brown had problems he could never put together the campaign this horse has already done.....and win them all without incident. BB was run on turf because his feet were a mess.

[depalma113]

Based on what?

At this point in both their careers, how can you say CC is better than Big Brown. BB was pretty dominating too, as far as I can remember.

Smarty Jones and Big Brown were looked upon pre-Belmont as the best chances we've had for a TC in a long time, not just because they kept winning, but going into the Belmont, there didn't appear to be that much that could beat them.

This is the same this year. And we all saw how Smarty and BB got beat...

So I'm not sure how you can say CC is better than both of these two past horses looking at the same spot in their careers.

If he wins the Belmont, then you can say he's better then those two.


The horse is better than Afleet Alex and he was better than both Big Brown and Smarty Jones.

[SecretAgentMan]

The horse is better than Afleet Alex and he was better than both Big Brown and Smarty Jones.


I agree......to this day, I still can't figure out what happened to Afleet Alex in the Rebel, coming in 6th by 12 lengths? Was he held back? Who knows but it was his worst race & you never see races run like that by a great horse while prepping for the derby.

[goatchaser]

You know what I love/ Hate about these boards. You talk up a Horse and say he is a good one and can beat CC. Then when they can't. You say it's a weak crop this year. Their 3 YO's..who knows what they will turn into in the future.

[OTM Al]

The horse is better than Afleet Alex and he was better than both Big Brown and Smarty Jones.

Wouldn't say that. If Alex had a better rider, his only loss would have been due to illness. He had the ability to win graded stakes from 6f to 12f so he was extremely versatile as well. One of the more underrated runners in some time despite his accomplishments.

[ILovetheInner]

It is by definition a weak crop *thus far* Very few distinguished themselves. Two colts ding-donging in both FL and NY with not many feeling they would have a dominant classic role, two preps won in upsets. The colt everyone was eyeing (Honor Code) off the trail. The winner of the FL Derby not showing up, and as the only colt thus far not to be laughed at by Tonalist, who is Belmont bound and dominated his field in the Peter Pan. Ride On Curlin and Commanding Curve look to be coming into their own now, but both distinguished themselves in the classics over the rest as non stakes winners, finishing ahead of the rest by daylight. In the Preakness, nine showed up to challenge - only two had untainted graded wins lifetime (plus Bayern dq'd down in a subpar effort and Ria Antonia dq'd up while likely not the best horse in the BCJF). It is arguable that CC has yet to meet the best of his generation. Reserving judgment until he does is completely natural.

[PaceAdvantage]

Can you love the horse with all your heart and yet, doubt the PRICE?

Why does it always have to be a personal shot against a horse if you decide to bet against him just because he's an underlay?Three letters.

ZDS

[Greyfox]

Color me worried. I think the horse looked pretty bad after the race.

It's a tall order. The last 1/16th at Belmont is where dreams go to die.....

Good post and bears repeating. :ThmbUp:
I didn't think that he looked the greatest after the race either when I saw him walking with a blanket draped over him going back to the barn - he almost looked sway backed. But perhaps the blanket distorted what I saw.

[Smarty Cide]

Can you love the horse with all your heart and yet, doubt the PRICE?

Why does it always have to be a personal shot against a horse if you decide to bet against him just because he's an underlay?

no you cant... because if you are that sure and love him that much any price is better then tearing up a ticket... cashing a smaller ticket is always better then tearing up a 30-1

and if you didnt think this horse was as good as he is you really gotta question your handicapping aptitude... biggest gimme in years

[PaceAdvantage]

no you cant... because if you are that sure and love him that much any price is better then tearing up a ticket... cashing a smaller ticket is always better then tearing up a 30-1

and if you didnt think this horse was as good as he is you really gotta question your handicapping aptitude... biggest gimme in yearsMad Scientist has never responded to you with one of his "glad your money is in the pools...stuff like this convinces me I can turn pro at this game with people like you donating me their money," has he?

That's kind of weird.

Mad Scientist, what say you about this? Isn't this the kind of attitude you should be salivating to compete against in the pari-mutuel pools?

How come you have never called Smarty Cide out?

[thaskalos]

If you are a "racing fan"...then you look for great horses to applaud.

If you are a horseplayer...you look for great bets to wager on.

And if you are both...then you've got a problem...

[PaceAdvantage]

If you are a "racing fan"...then you look for great horses to applaud.

If you are a horseplayer...you look for great bets to wager on.Which proves just how few horseplayers exist these days. What horseplayer in their right mind would look at the Preakness tote, see 1/2 on Chome, and say "Move out da' way....I gots to gets all my money down on dat dare champs nose to WIN!!"

[SecretAgentMan]

The horse player that likes filling his pockets with money & knowing the difference between a great horse & a false favorite. Can horses break legs, jockey fall off, etc.......of course, anything can happen & it can happen to a 30-1 shot as it can on s fav.

But there is no way I was betting any other horse in the Preakness.......like the saying goes, if you can't beat them, join them.

This wasn't s claimer or an allowance race. .....this was supposedly some of the best of 3 year olds of 2014 trying to beat the best 3 year old of the entire crop, was not gonna happen!

If you are looking for value, the only race that you should be betting against Chrome is the Belmont stakes because of how hard it is to win the triple crown.

I still think Chrome wins the triple crown but I won't argue with anyone trying to best him because its do hard to win the triple crown.

[PaceAdvantage]

If you are looking for value, the only race that you should be betting against Chrome is the Belmont stakes because of how hard it is to win the triple crownThanks for dooming the horse. And here I was looking forward to my first Triple Crown after going to every Belmont Stakes since 1988.

If he loses, it's on you.

[SecretAgentMan]

Also, I don't want to see people say, Chrome will lose & not give us which horse wI'll beat him. That's like having 12 or 13 tries against the one.

Its hard enough winning the triple crown, if he's gonna be beat, the "horse player" should be able to figure out who it will be if they are looking for the value bet.

[PaceAdvantage]

Also, I don't want to see people say, Chrome will lose & not give us which horse wI'll beat him. That's like having 12 or 13 tries against the one.

Its hard enough winning the triple crown, if he's gonna be beat, the "horse player" should be able to figure out who it will be if they are looking for the value bet.I see...we are all here to cater to your needs... :lol:

[thaskalos]

This horseplayer says Wicked Strong runs CC down in the Belmont.

[Man o' War]

This horse reminds me of Seattle Slew the way he puts away the field at the ‘top’ of the stretch. Slew had his detractors too back then with people saying he was beating a weak crop of 3 year olds.
This horse also reminds me of Affirmed. Once he gets the lead, he will not be passed…“Yeah, for a second I thought maybe, but Chrome kept on going,” Gowan said.
The extra ¼ mile will not make a difference. Chrome will beat Ride On Curlin (who will be his Alydar now) by about a half length in a thrilling stretch drive to put a stamp on his greatness. 2:26 and change on a fast track..

[PaceAdvantage]

Slew had his detractors too back then with people saying he was beating a weak crop of 3 year olds.True that.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

People say this every year about three-year-olds, year after year. It has been this way forever. The people who make such comments still follow racing and bet on the horses. It is usually only a year or two later that such people realize, "Wow, that was a decent three-year-old crop!"

Disagree. The last super crop, in 1987, had several of the horses proving themselves something special early on, with Alysheba only losing by a nostril in the BC Classic. Most years there are a least several "decent" horses who make for an exciting Triple Crown, even if the "crop" overall might not be great.

The Derby winner has not come back to win the BC Classic since Unbridled in 1990, but there have been a number of 3YOs over the years that have been decent runners. Personally, my votes go for Curlin and Afleet Alex as the best in the last 20 years, with others like Smarty, Funny Cide, Big Brown, Real Quiet, etc., a notch below.

Last year everyone was crowning ORB as the next Triple Crown champ, and though he delivered in the Derby, that was his last hurrah. This year's crop other than CC doesn't seem to have a horse than can put two decent efforts in a row. They're awful. No, that's not right. They're garbage. I doubt any of these "G1" runners could place in a listed stakes in Europe.

Come Belmont day I think one of these other mules will run well enough to beat Chrome. If not, I still won't be a believer until he runs well later in his career against older, and somewhat decent, horses.

[onefast99]

Come Belmont day I think one of these other mules will run well enough to beat Chrome. If not, I still won't be a believer until he runs well later in his career against older, and somewhat decent, horses.

He won't run past the age of 4 if he even runs at that age. Should he win the Belmont the connections will be given a very lucrative breeding contract by one of the big stud farms they will be a breeding operation from here on out, keeping several babies a year for themselves.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Come Belmont day I think one of these other mules will run well enough to beat Chrome. If not, I still won't be a believer until he runs well later in his career against older, and somewhat decent, horses.

He won't run past the age of 4 if he even runs at that age. Should he win the Belmont the connections will be given a very lucrative breeding contract by one of the big stud farms they will be a breeding operation from here on out, keeping several babies a year for themselves.

SI isn't a decent horse?

[Smarty Cide]

Mad Scientist has never responded to you with one of his "glad your money is in the pools...stuff like this convinces me I can turn pro at this game with people like you donating me their money," has he?

That's kind of weird.

Mad Scientist, what say you about this? Isn't this the kind of attitude you should be salivating to compete against in the pari-mutuel pools?

How come you have never called Smarty Cide out?


me and Mad Scientist have been on the same page this year. thats why

[onefast99]

SI isn't a decent horse?
I quoted hoofless about CC running later on in his career, I'm saying that won't happen. Believe it or not I'm not mentioning SI just CC!:D

[onefast99]

me and Mad Scientist have been on the same page this year. thats why
Good for the both of you, hopefully you didn't lose your shirt on that exacta he gave out!

[OTM Al]

This horseplayer says Wicked Strong runs CC down in the Belmont.

He'll need to sit close, within about 6 lengths through the backstretch. Kinda like what Birdstone did in 2004. If he can do that though, I think you are going to be right.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

SI isn't a decent horse?

Hard to tell. Two third place finishes in his "big" races only show that he's okay. Considering how worked up he was prior to the Preakness, he appears he'd be decent if he'd calm down. My definition of "decent" is a horse consistent enough to fire 3 out of 4 times in a G1 race to be near the finish.

Looking at the Preakness field, only three other horses sported triple digit BRIS ratings from all their previous races. CC had logged four. Several horses on paper in the Derby looked like they had a chance to move forward, as happens most years, and none did. Terrible crop, though granted some of the "stars" have been injured.

Since CC is the only one showing any consistency, I won't argue with the logic of we might not know how good he really is - after all, it's not his fault who he runs against.

What we do know is that the horses he's beating appear to be pretty sad. No, actually, they are very sad. Hopefully this nasal strip issue is resolved one way or the other so CC gets loaded into the gate come Belmont day.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Come Belmont day I think one of these other mules will run well enough to beat Chrome. If not, I still won't be a believer until he runs well later in his career against older, and somewhat decent, horses.

He won't run past the age of 4 if he even runs at that age. Should he win the Belmont the connections will be given a very lucrative breeding contract by one of the big stud farms they will be a breeding operation from here on out, keeping several babies a year for themselves.

I'll be interested to see what his stud fee will be - on Saturday when he was being saddled up, he was sporting wood big time, so it doesn't appear he's too shy. :)

But with his sire's stud fee only being $2500 and being a grandson of Pulpit, is his blood really blue enough to command a lucrative breeding contract? Does the horse "Canadian Bound" ring a bell?

[The WindfallAngler]

Which proves just how few horseplayers exist these days. What horseplayer in their right mind would look at the Preakness tote, see 1/2 on Chome, and say "Move out da' way....I gots to gets all my money down on dat dare champs nose to WIN!!"

What horseplayer? Why, any that worked from an accurate betting line!
(I made California Chrome 2-to-5, so I did see some value.)

I liked your Guys and Dolls patter, btw.

[martini]

Disagree. The last super crop, in 1987, had several of the horses proving themselves something special early on, with Alysheba only losing by a nostril in the BC Classic. Most years there are a least several "decent" horses who make for an exciting Triple Crown, even if the "crop" overall might not be great.


Ok, I get where you are coming from. But I think that you would even admit that great champions are very, very rare. Many losing Triple Crown three-year-olds grow up to be pretty decent. The term "crop" is almost meaningless, when there are only a few standouts from the US in each decade, if that. Are we talking about crop, or an historical horse? If a good crop means one or two all-time historical horses within a year, then most crops are terrible.

I see that you are from the Portland area. PM me, because I'd like to buy you a beverage at Portland Meadows when it begins. I live in the 'burbs of Portland. Your posts are highly informative. Peace and good health!

[ten2oneormore]

There are those that just use winning as a barometer and there are those that use data.

You are never going to convince the data users that California Chrome is faster than Big Brown's derby or Smarty Jones's preakness no matter how many insults you throw.It's not even close.

[The WindfallAngler]

Can you love the horse with all your heart and yet, doubt the PRICE?

Why does it always have to be a personal shot against a horse if you decide to bet against him just because he's an underlay?
Doesn't have to. That you love a horse, with all your heart :) , but balk at the price, in no sense constitutes betrayal.

If, then, however, you bet on another, it does amount to a "personal shot against the horse," as you put it (at least symbolically), because you felt that way, but acted anyway.

No one is starved for action nowadays, given web-served year-long simulcasting.

Will your friends emit catcalls, point and jeer? if you should fold your arms and pass the race?

[The WindfallAngler]

There are those that just use winning as a barometer and there are those that use data.

You are never going to convince the data users that California Chrome is faster than Big Brown's derby or Smarty Jones's preakness no matter how many insults you throw.It's not even close.

Counting Wins, certainly, is useful data; Margin of Victory--perhaps not so much. Pace, and Final Time, data are undeniably, if not uniformly useful.

Big Brown's derby time, certainly, was faster than CC's (for all that discrete datum proves).

Smarty Jones's Preakness time, however, was 1:55.59; California Chrome's, 154.84.

[PhantomOnTour]

At this point in their careers, Smarty and Big Brown were still undefeated.

[Valuist]

People say this every year about three-year-olds, year after year. It has been this way forever. The people who make such comments still follow racing and bet on the horses. It is usually only a year or two later that such people realize, "Wow, that was a decent three-year-old crop!"

People who say that have been around long enough to actually have seen good crops. And we've had a lot of weak crops in recent years.

[The WindfallAngler]

At this point in their careers, Smarty and Big Brown were still undefeated.Well, but then in round numbers Smarty Jones owned just two Grade One stakes wins, & one Grade Two stakes win, going into his Belmont Stakes; Big Brown, three Grade Ones.

California Chrome goes in owning three Grade Ones [which s/b four, (and better) depending on how forgiving one views disasters such as his Del Mar Futurity, etc.] and a Grade Two stakes win. Plus an experience edge!

[Stillriledup]

Doesn't have to. That you love a horse, with all your heart :) , but balk at the price, in no sense constitutes betrayal.

If, then, however, you bet on another, it does amount to a "personal shot against the horse," as you put it (at least symbolically), because you felt that way, but acted anyway.

No one is starved for action nowadays, given web-served year-long simulcasting.

Will your friends emit catcalls, point and jeer? if you should fold your arms and pass the race?

What if you don't care and are just trying to make winning bets? Not everyone is "personally invested" in this game in any way other than trying to make money thru the windows.

[The WindfallAngler]

What if you don't care and are just trying to make winning bets? Not everyone is "personally invested" in this game in any way other than trying to make money thru the windows. Naturally not. But many are. :)

[rastajenk]

I think the three-year-old crop of 2015 is very poor.





First!! :jump:

[ten2oneormore]

Counting Wins, certainly, is useful data; Margin of Victory--perhaps not so much. Pace, and Final Time, data are undeniably, if not uniformly useful.

Big Brown's derby time, certainly, was faster than CC's (for all that discrete datum proves).

Smarty Jones's Preakness time, however, was 1:55.59; California Chrome's, 154.84.

I meant people that use speed/performance figures.

Chromes figures were several lengths slower than either of them.
Time without context means very little imo.

[SandyW]

I think the three-year-old crop of 2015 is very poor.





First!! :jump:

As well as the three-year-old crop of 2017. :jump::lol: :jump:

[dilanesp]

I am not doubting. I simply think that given the history of Triple Crown attempts (as well as potential distance limitations of this horse), you have to bet against him in the win pool. (And to be clear, I do just mean the win pool. It's unclear whether exotics pools are as distorted. What seems to happen is a lot of people bet on the horse attempting the Triple Crown to have the souvenir, and that happens in the win pool. Check the exacta probables before assuming that exotic pools offer the same overlays on the other horses.)

[Mad Scientist]

Well he was faster than Smarty Jones. Derby and just as fast as Big Browns Preakness and as long as he finishes the Belmont will be faster than big brown in the Belmont.

The two top betting choices behind big brown in the derby were colonel john and pyro.

[ten2oneormore]

Well he was faster than Smarty Jones. Derby and just as fast as Big Browns Preakness and as long as he finishes the Belmont will be faster than big brown in the Belmont.

The two top betting choices behind big brown in the derby were colonel john and pyro.

Maybe in your world where , because I think so , is good enough evidence.

However on TFUS his Derby was a little less than 7 lengths slower than BBs and on TG was 8+ lengths slower.

TFUS and TG his Preakness is around 4 lengths slower than Smarty .Give or take a 1/2 length.

The scales may have changed over time but it's still a pretty significant margin and CC is definitely not "faster".

You are probably just trying to get a reaction again so not sure why I am responding.I've learned over the years the best way to deal with people like you is to just ignore them.So when you post your because I said so evidence I'll just pass on correcting you again.

[depalma113]

The track on Preakness day was about 1.6 seconds faster than in 2004. Smarty Jones was a little over 4 lengths better that day.

As for Big Brown, it's not even close, his Preakness time is identical to California Chrome's and he was on a track in 2008 that was 1.2 seconds faster than Chrome's this year. Chrome was 6 lengths better than Big Brown in his Preakness.

[precocity]

GUT FELLING RIDE ON CURLIN NIPS HIS BEST BUD AT THE WIRE?

HOPE CC WINS THOUGH? WHY DOES ROC LIKE CC SO MUCH? THOUGHT ROC WAS A MEAN COLT! THAT HE BITES AND KICKS AT WILL?

[SecretAgentMan]

There's no doubt in my mind Chrome wins the triple crown..........I just wish I could get good odds........im still debating on whether to bet him. If I can get 4-5, I just might.......

[Rex Phinney]

There's no doubt in my mind Chrome wins the triple crown..........I just wish I could get good odds........im still debating on whether to bet him. If I can get 4-5, I just might.......

I just don't see that happening.

[mostpost]

The track on Preakness day was about 1.6 seconds faster than in 2004. Smarty Jones was a little over 4 lengths better that day.

As for Big Brown, it's not even close, his Preakness time is identical to California Chrome's and he was on a track in 2008 that was 1.2 seconds faster than Chrome's this year. Chrome was 6 lengths better than Big Brown in his Preakness.
I'm curious as to how you get those figures. I don't mean how you arrive at the numbers themselves. I guess I am asking, "Is there an archive somewhere that track speeds from the past are kept, or do you personally keep such information?

[Cratos]

The track on Preakness day was about 1.6 seconds faster than in 2004. Smarty Jones was a little over 4 lengths better that day.

As for Big Brown, it's not even close, his Preakness time is identical to California Chrome's and he was on a track in 2008 that was 1.2 seconds faster than Chrome's this year. Chrome was 6 lengths better than Big Brown in his Preakness.

Racetracks surfaces DO NOT have speed; they have resistance because they are a static entity.

Racehorses have speed.

What should have been calculated is the coefficient of friction between the horses'
hooves and the racetrack's surface.

This is not to say that CC's Preakness wasn't faster than the Preakness of the two horses you mentioned, but it is to say that you are using an incorrect metric to reach that conclusion.

[Stillriledup]

There's no doubt in my mind Chrome wins the triple crown..........I just wish I could get good odds........im still debating on whether to bet him. If I can get 4-5, I just might.......

The game is about knowing things other people don't know. Your theory is shared by plenty of other people, the odds will reflect that.

If you want to bet him, i would suggest bet him on top in exas, tris or key him in pick 3s, etc. because he will be overbet to win, people trying to get souvenir tickets will all plunk 2 bucks on the nose. There isnt going to be "souvenir exacta tickets" so that's the smartest strategy if you want bet on CC.

[SecretAgentMan]

The game is about knowing things other people don't know. Your theory is shared by plenty of other people, the odds will reflect that.

If you want to bet him, i would suggest bet him on top in exas, tris or key him in pick 3s, etc. because he will be overbet to win, people trying to get souvenir tickets will all plunk 2 bucks on the nose. There isnt going to be "souvenir exacta tickets" so that's the smartest strategy if you want bet on CC.


You're absolutely right......just gotta pick the 2nd & 3rd place horses & its tough in this field.

My sports book has Chrome at +105 to win the race with a 1k limit & I'm gonna bite on it. I was just gonna watch & not bet but I just don't see any horse besting him & with Danza out, I feel a lot better. Danza was the only horse that I felt uneasy about.

[Stillriledup]

You're absolutely right......just gotta pick the 2nd & 3rd place horses & its tough in this field.

My sports book has Chrome at +105 to win the race with a 1k limit & I'm gonna bite on it. I was just gonna watch & not bet but I just don't see any horse besting him & with Danza out, I feel a lot better. Danza was the only horse that I felt uneasy about.

Plus 105 is a great price, he's not going to pay 4 bucks at the track.

As far as horses who can beat him, if he gets beat, its probably going to be him beating himself, you know, maybe he will move too soon, or not love the track, or the distance will be too long or, you know, something that doesn't go exactly his way and he could lose to an inferior horse just like Smarty Jones did.

[The WindfallAngler]

...with Danza out, I feel a lot better.Agreed.

[EMD4ME]

Plus 105 is a great price, he's not going to pay 4 bucks at the track.

As far as horses who can beat him, if he gets beat, its probably going to be him beating himself, you know, maybe he will move too soon, or not love the track, or the distance will be too long or, you know, something that doesn't go exactly his way and he could lose to an inferior horse just like Smarty Jones did.

I'd venture to say, CC will lose and what you said is 1/5 on happening. Yes, CC was giant in all of his preps. However, he had super easy stress free garden trips in the Derby and Preakness. I didn't like his last 1/8 in the Derby, he should've won a whole lot easier in the Preakness with the trip he had and I don't see him getting yet another ultra perfect trip going 1 1/2 at the Big B.

Riders will have him in mind throughout the 1 1/2 and will race ride him just like Bailey and Solis race rode empty brained Elliot in the 04 Belmont. There will be a Birdstone going by yet again in deep stretch.

I will be laughing in ecstasy when that exact moment happens :)

P.S. before someone accuses me of hating...i don't hate CC. I handicap all races with no emotion. Don't see CC winning his way into immortality. Why? As a trip handicapper, his Derby and Preakness were earned victories and earned perfect trips but they were just that... rare perfect trips.

Very unlikely it happens again when it matters going 1 1/2....

[Dark Horse]

I'd venture to say, CC will lose and what you said is 1/5 on happening. Yes, CC was giant in all of his preps. However, he had super easy stress free garden trips in the Derby and Preakness.

Clearly, the jockey had something to do with that. He came well prepared and moved him in the clear. The easy trip in the Derby was a direct result. The trip in the Preakness wasn't easy at all. Social Inclusion attacked very early, and CC had no choice but to go with him (to keep his right eye clear). That made him vulnerable to closers, because the pace was fast. Yet he withstood the late attack from Ride On Curling with ease. To call that an easy trip is just missing what happened. CC simply had the answer for everything they threw at him, from start to finish. At the start Borel tried his patented sharp left turn from the 6 hole, but CC was already gone. This was followed by the answer to SI's attack, and completed with his response to the late charge by ROC. So if you speak of a perfect trip, you may want to consider the role of horse and rider in that. It didn't just fall in their lap.


I didn't like his last 1/8 in the Derby, he should've won a whole lot easier in the Preakness with the trip he had and I don't see him getting yet another ultra perfect trip going 1 1/2 at the Big B.

He had the race won and preserved energy in the Derby, which is the smart thing to do with another race two weeks down the road. I already went into the Preakness, but just curious to know how much easier you think he should have won.

[EMD4ME]

I respect your points in return.

In the Preakness I would differ in that I don't think Victor used any horse when SI made his pathetic and meek early move. Watching on the blimp cam helped me solidify that thought. I wanted him to pull away in the Preakness, not just maintain 1 or 1 1/2 on ROC. Again, especially since he sat g spot off 2 rats stress free for 3/4 of a mile.

In the Derby, I don't believe Victor conserved energy in the last 1/16, yes, he might've let up a touch but I saw him losing ground late while at near top speed. Which makes me believe 1 1/2 with some villainous, make you earn it, race riding in NY will be too tough for this horse to handle.

With the trip he had in the Derby, his 5L's at the 1/8 should've been maintained or increased, even without an all out drive. Didn't like that reduction late.

that's why I love horseracing. We can see 2 different things, while watching the same thing :D

[depalma113]

He doesn't get perfect trips, he makes them.

[Tom]

Ding ding ding!
You said the secret word.

Horses who run fast early dictate the races.
Jockeys who grab race after race are idiots.
CC makes his luck, as many really good horses do.

[goatchaser]

He doesn't get perfect trips, he makes them.
You sound like the guy who drinks Dos Equis Beer. lol

[Sysonby]

What got Smarty beat was his personality. He went into the Belmont absolutely determined to be at the front, refused to rate, and got used up fending off challenge after challenge. If I'm not mistaken, he ran some of the fastest inside fractions ever seen in that race. Smarty started out as a front runner and they spent a lot of time getting him to rate. With the excitement of the Belmont and the crowds, I think he just lost all sense of that training. Stuart Elliott had two choices, keep fighting him to try to pull him back while his energy is being wasted fighting or let him go and hope for the best. I think he made the right choice under the circumstances.

In Northern Dancer's Belmont, he fought the jockey so hard to be on the lead that his mouth was wide open and he probably swallowed about 5 pounds of dirt that day. The jockey never stopped fighting him and by the stretch, ND didn't have what he needed left. Would he have won if he'd been let go? I don't know but fighting the jock also uses up considerable energy.

The thing is, Chrome is not the same personality type as Smarty. He's never shown any preference for being on the front end. I think if the other horses want to test him, he lets them go by. Espinoza focuses on keeping a clear lane for as much of the race as possible and makes his move when they're ready.

[SecretAgentMan]

He doesn't get perfect trips, he makes them.


Exactly! That's the thing people don't understand about really good horses & they say he got 2 perfect trips & Social Inclusion got really bad trips, that's why one horse won & the other lost, lmao........a complete joke!

Good horses create their own luck........

[thaskalos]

I haven't made a serious wager on the Belmont Stakes in more than a decade, because I consider the distance to be too big an unknown to overcome. But the euphoria surrounding California Chrome makes this year the exception to the rule. I will wager heavily on the race...and, not only will I keep CC out of the top spot of my exotics tickets -- but I am pretty sure that I will exclude the horse from my exacta bets entirely.

[Mad Scientist]

With horse racing being the pari mutuel sport that it is let me thank you in advance for your donation.

[thaskalos]

With horse racing being the pari mutuel sport that it is let me thank you in advance for your donation.
The feeling is mutual.

[breezing]

You sound like the guy who drinks Dos Equis Beer. lol

you reminded me of this tweet. from califorina to the possum, it's been a fun TC campaign to follow.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Boa-rLFCYAAUiG1.jpg:large

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Boa-rLFCYAAUiG1.jpg:large

[SecretAgentMan]

I haven't made a serious wager on the Belmont Stakes in more than a decade, because I consider the distance to be too big an unknown to overcome. But the euphoria surrounding California Chrome makes this year the exception to the rule. I will wager heavily on the race...and, not only will I keep CC out of the top spot of my exotics tickets -- but I am pretty sure that I will exclude the horse from my exacta bets entirely.


Thaskalos= Teacher in Greek........

Are you teaching us how to lose money? LoL.....good luck with your bets, you will need it :)

[taxicab]

you reminded me of this tweet. from califorina to the possum, it's been a fun TC campaign to follow.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Boa-rLFCYAAUiG1.jpg:large

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Boa-rLFCYAAUiG1.jpg:large

Wait a minute !
"Most interesting Possum in the world....?"
How about...
"Most angry Possum in the world!"
But I must admit....
I do like the nasal strip he's sporting.
Whoa.....Maybe that's why he's angry. :eek:

[Rex Phinney]

I think maybe those who keep trying to beat CC should let us know just how much they need to win in the Belmont to even up. I get the feeling people will be lining up to say "I told you so" if he loses, totally forgetting that they got beat several times doubting this horse.

[EMD4ME]

He doesn't get perfect trips, he makes them.

Look at what I wrote....CC "has earned perfect trips"...

[thaskalos]

I think maybe those who keep trying to beat CC should let us know just how much they need to win in the Belmont to even up. I get the feeling people will be lining up to say "I told you so" if he loses, totally forgetting that they got beat several times doubting this horse.

I lost a minor bet on the Derby, not because the attributes of California Chrome were subtle enough to elude me...but because I had the place-horse marked as a virtual impossibility. I didn't bet a penny on the Preakness, because I found the odds unappetizing all the way around. But I did say on this board, BEFORE the Preakness, that California Chrome would win that race...and then lose the Belmont to Wicked Strong. If nothing changes from now until then...I will bet on Wicked Strong with both hands in the Belmont.

[nijinski]

I saw a photo today of Tonalist . He is a big beautiful boy .
I was taken back by his saddlecloth with the large letters CC
on it .

It took a minute until I realized it was his trainers initials .
:D guess they didn't concede yet .

[PaceAdvantage]

With horse racing being the pari mutuel sport that it is let me thank you in advance for your donation.As Reagan once said..."There you go again..."

You just can't help yourself. And you wonder why I call you out for your dickish ways...

[PaceAdvantage]

I think maybe those who keep trying to beat CC should let us know just how much they need to win in the Belmont to even up. I get the feeling people will be lining up to say "I told you so" if he loses, totally forgetting that they got beat several times doubting this horse.If they are any sort of a competent bettor, they treat these races just as any other. And since most if not all competent bettors lose more races then they win (note, I wrote races, not money), if they lost the Derby and the Preakness, it's really no big deal.

Again, this is for people who actually bet real money on real races more than a few times a year. You and SecretAgentMan might not be one of those people, and that's ok. I have to presume you are not one of those people if you write something like the above. Because writing something like the above indicates you place a premium on winning a race over winning money in the long run.

[FlyinLate]

As Reagan once said..."There you go again..."

You just can't help yourself. And you wonder why I call you out for your dickish ways...

Don't worry. In a few weeks time this new crop of forum trolls will fade away until next year.

[Mad Scientist]

C'mon seriously .... Somebody says they are going to leave CC out of the exacta all together, and I respond with " thanks for the donation" , and I get called out for my " dickish ways " .

Don't you think that's being just a bit thin skinned ???

" Thanks for the donation " does not even qualify as the mildest form of trash talk, or if it does than it just barely qualifies ...

What are we a bunch of little old ladies ????

If "thanks for the donation" really offends some people that much than I suggest you stay away from the track because you are going to hear MUCH worse ....

[burnsy]

C'mon seriously .... Somebody says they are going to leave CC out of the exacta all together, and I respond with " thanks for the donation" , and I get called out for my " dickish ways " .

Don't you think that's being just a bit thin skinned ???

" Thanks for the donation " does not even qualify as the mildest form of trash talk, or if it does than it just barely qualifies ...

What are we a bunch of little old ladies ????

If "thanks for the donation" really offends some people that much than I suggest you stay away from the track because you are going to hear MUCH worse ....

No, you are right and judging from your statements and opinions. You are a real race track philanthropist. :rolleyes:

[Del Park]

I still don't like the nose patch. its like the smoke patch.

but you have to look at CC birth date he was born on Feb.

ride on curlin born on feb, gen a rod born born feb

these horses are almost four month older than the rest?????????????????????

[HUSKER55]

There is a reason that the track favorite wins the race. It was/is the horse to beat. I get that.

But when that happens and you end up comparing the winnings to your savings account interest rate.........


Not going to happen. The difference is winning and winning with value. With all of the token tickets being sold. CC is not going to be a value bet.

gotta go deep in the exotics to make money this time around. I think CC will finish in the money, somewhere, (hopefully to win), but making money...

Only way to make money is if CC does not finish in the top 4.

JMHO

[The WindfallAngler]

Only way to make money is if CC does not finish in the top 4.

JMHOGood luck with that one.

[clocker7]

From my standpoint, the KD and Belmont are annual sucker bets (with the extra lured of a big pool of foolish money) that draw in normally-prudent systems players that lose their brains twice a year. None of them should be condescending to any poster, especially this year. There's nothing " in the long-run" about these two races, ever. They are state-lotto type purchases.

[burnsy]

From my standpoint, the KD and Belmont are annual sucker bets (with the extra lured of a big pool of foolish money) that draw in normally-prudent systems players that lose their brains twice a year. None of them should be condescending to any poster, especially this year. There's nothing " in the long-run" about these two races, ever. They are state-lotto type purchases.

Somewhat but not entirely true, I've played the Belmont with that approach (for years) and have made good $ doing so. When you know this going in, you are not "caught" or stunned after. There is "uninformed" money in the pool because the great majority don't understand this. I was there when Big Brown "walked" some 50 lengths behind....how many other people were cashing after it was official? It wasn't these jackasses that start three thousand different threads about how a horse "can't lose"............how many times can you say the same thing and brag about 3/5? People that actually gamble don't even take that crap seriously. I hate reading all the crap but it's a confidence builder knowing people actually wager like this too. Its only a sucker bet if you can't think for yourself and get creative. I can use this horse and take what everyone else gets if he wins and take a shot on others too. That's how I play horses like this. Some of these people claim to be "pari-mutuels" experts. But they don't understand it, not even a clue. You get the biggest rewards when you HAVE SOMETHING DIFFERENT. That's how it actually works. You can cash on a horse like that (many times) and barely be ahead. You beat a horse like that once and it can make your entire year of horse wagering. People that play year round and play hundreds or more races should understand this. Show me someone that bets with their heart and I will take their money a majority of the time and they will never make any good money doing this or any other form of sports gambling. But this is especially true in horse racing because you can't survive on chalk. 2 out of 3 lose...if you are betting regularly, you have to understand that and be more than willing to lose some too.

[Mad Scientist]

Here is my opinion on the logic of the " value play " .

Say you have a real craving for cookies, so you decide to go to the store and buy a box of cookies. Your favorite kind of cookie is chocolate chip, so your reach for a box of chocolate chip cookies, but out of the corner of your eye you see a coupon for 75% off oatmeal cookies. The oatmeal cookies are the same brand and same size box, but you really hate the taste of oatmeal cookies, but the chocolate chip cookies would cost you $4.00 and the oatmeal cookies would only cost you $1.00, so being the better " value " you buy the oatmeal cookies.

You get home and don't even open the oatmeal cookies because you hate the taste and after a few months you just end up throwing them away because they are old and stale.

Sure you could leave CC out of all of your exotics because his price is going to be so short and instead box kid Cruz, SI, commissioner , tonalist in the super because that will give you so much more "value" ....

After the race what are you left with ??? You have a worthless piece of paper, or if you made your bet with TVG than you don't even have a worthless piece of paper. What value is that ??? Unless you value having your money one second and than roughly 2:30 minutes later your money being gone , than I just don't see the value.

Sure the people that cashed their tickets are going to have chalky payouts. Maybe they invested $50 in super plays and the super only paid $200, but I would rather have $200 than nothing. Which is what you get if you buy a box of oatmeal cookies because they are so cheap, but you hate the taste so much you never even eat one ....

Playing against a horse just because his odds are going to be short just makes zero sense to me. If the horse is the right horse than you have to use him regardless of his odds because the only tickets that pay out are going to be the tickets with him on it.

If you seriously think that 4 horses are going to finish ahead of CC in a race that he just towers above the competition in than that's fine, but don't call yourself a horseplayer , because your not. No horseplayer can look at this race on paper and say with a straight face that 4 horses are going to finish ahead of CC.

Sure something really crazy could happen and Victor ends up pulling him up or maybe he gets DQ down to 5th or lower , but if your counting on that to happen as the reason for placing your bet than I repeat your not a handicapper and your not a horseplayer . You are much more like a bingo player or a lottery numbers guy. Which there is nothing wrong with being a bingo player or a lottery player, but please don't lecture real horseplayers, if your not one yourself ....

[biggestal99]

CC is the mere flavor of the day.

Is he good? LOL

of course.

as good or better than Smarty Jones.

nope.

to those of you who have short memories.

Smarty made short work out of the good Grade one winner Rock Hard ten
by oh lets say double digit lengths in the Preakness.

CC won the Preakness by what 2 lengths over Ride On Curlin.

Allan

[Mad Scientist]

How can you compare Rock Hard Ten to ROC or any horse that CC has beat so far ???? The horse that CC has beat are just 3 year olds . They have not had the chance to run in the races that Rock Hard Ten ran in his career. Sure Rock hard ten won a grade 1 as a older horse, but of course ROC or anyone else for that matter has not won a grade 1 as a older yet because they are not a older horse and therefore have not run in those races yet.

How do you know ROC or Danza or wicked strong is not going to win grade 1's as a older horse ???????

When smarty jones beat rock hard ten in the Preakness what had rock hard ten won at the point. ??? Did rock hard ten have grade 1 victories as a older horse to his credit when he ran against smarty jones on the Preakness ????? Of course he did not because he was a 3 yet old at the time. Just like ROC and the rest are 3 year olds right now.

It would be like saying the day of the Preakness when smarty jones won that he was not as good as say thunder gulch because thunder gulch beat tejano run and tejano run had won 6 stakes races as a older horse and rock hard ten had not won any stakes races as a older horse which would have been the case right after he got beat by smarty jones in the Preakness.

If you want to compare who smarty jones beat vs who CC beat in the triple crown races than you have to actually let the horses CC beat have a actual racing career first and not compare their accomplishments to horses like rock hard ten who have already had their chance to run as a older horse.

I know we are not supposed to insult people but really the person that said smarty jones was better than CC because Rock hard ten won more grade 1 a than any horse CC had faced so far really qualifies for being called a absolute i _ i _ t !!!!!

[Mad Scientist]

And before everyone starts clutching their pearls and gasping because I insulted this guy that was just stating his " opinion "

Saying Pizza Hut is better than dominoes is a opinion ....

Saying Star Wars is the best movie of all time is a opinion ....

Saying 2+ 2 = 5 is not a opinion. That is you being a walking and talking billboard for the failed education system in America.

[thaskalos]

Here is my opinion on the logic of the " value play " .

Say you have a real craving for cookies, so you decide to go to the store and buy a box of cookies. Your favorite kind of cookie is chocolate chip, so your reach for a box of chocolate chip cookies, but out of the corner of your eye you see a coupon for 75% off oatmeal cookies. The oatmeal cookies are the same brand and same size box, but you really hate the taste of oatmeal cookies, but the chocolate chip cookies would cost you $4.00 and the oatmeal cookies would only cost you $1.00, so being the better " value " you buy the oatmeal cookies.

You get home and don't even open the oatmeal cookies because you hate the taste and after a few months you just end up throwing them away because they are old and stale.

Sure you could leave CC out of all of your exotics because his price is going to be so short and instead box kid Cruz, SI, commissioner , tonalist in the super because that will give you so much more "value" ....

After the race what are you left with ??? You have a worthless piece of paper, or if you made your bet with TVG than you don't even have a worthless piece of paper. What value is that ??? Unless you value having your money one second and than roughly 2:30 minutes later your money being gone , than I just don't see the value.

Sure the people that cashed their tickets are going to have chalky payouts. Maybe they invested $50 in super plays and the super only paid $200, but I would rather have $200 than nothing. Which is what you get if you buy a box of oatmeal cookies because they are so cheap, but you hate the taste so much you never even eat one ....

Playing against a horse just because his odds are going to be short just makes zero sense to me. If the horse is the right horse than you have to use him regardless of his odds because the only tickets that pay out are going to be the tickets with him on it.

If you seriously think that 4 horses are going to finish ahead of CC in a race that he just towers above the competition in than that's fine, but don't call yourself a horseplayer , because your not. No horseplayer can look at this race on paper and say with a straight face that 4 horses are going to finish ahead of CC.

Sure something really crazy could happen and Victor ends up pulling him up or maybe he gets DQ down to 5th or lower , but if your counting on that to happen as the reason for placing your bet than I repeat your not a handicapper and your not a horseplayer . You are much more like a bingo player or a lottery numbers guy. Which there is nothing wrong with being a bingo player or a lottery player, but please don't lecture real horseplayers, if your not one yourself ....

I doubt that you are talking about me here...because I never said that I am avoiding California Chrome in the Belmont just because he figures to be a short price. I think the horse loses the race...period. You say that CC looks unbeatable going it to this race...but I got news for you, just in case your memory is not as sharp as your mouth is: Smarty Jones looked much more invincible than California Chrome does going into this race...and we all saw how that worked out.

Sure...I've heard all the "smart talk" about how Smarty beat himself in the Belmont...or about how CC is a better horse than Smarty was. About how California Chrome wins with condescending ease...and only runs as fast as he needs to. And about how he "creates his own luck"...and has push-button acceleration.

But I think there are several facts here that the CC supporters have failed to notice.

Yes, his running style helps him in creating his own luck...but this style is not going to be an asset to him come Belmont day. CC makes his big move early in the race...and then holds on for dear life. You may THINK that the horse won under wraps in the Derby...but the truth is that the horse was under a drive, up until the closing yards of the race. And we could all see that the horse was doing all he could late in the Preakness...while being unable to pull away from a decidedly undistinguished Ride On Curlin...who -- by the way -- was the recipient of a worse trip than CC got in that race.

CC's winning margins have shortened up as of late...and I doubt that this is an energy-saving maneuver by the connections. I say he is a tired horse, who has already reached his distance limitations...a dangerous combination going into the Belmont, if you ask me. I see him making his customary early move and seizing control of the race as the horses are turning into the stretch...but at the Belmont...that's where the serious running just begins. And I see California Chrome being a very tired horse half-way down the stretch...with two horses making a menacing move at him along the grandstand side. I know who one of those horses will be...and in a week or so, I think I will also be able to identify the other.

A tired CC will finish 3rd in the Belmont...and the forgetful will again be reminded: It takes more than mere racing talent to win the Triple Crown...even in today's watered-down racing era.

I was at Belmont with my 5-year-old son on Belmont Day 2004, clutching a $100 win ticket on Smarty Jones...which I intended to pass on to my son, so he could remember that his dad had wagered live on the last Triple Crown winner the game had ever seen. I was stunned when I saw the scenario which unfolded in front of me that day.

And in a couple of weeks...I think that you will be stunned as well.

[lamboguy]

i think what we fail to realize is how good the field's have been against CALIFORNIA CHROME. SMARTY JONES ran against bums. he was probably the most over rated 2 out of 3 triple crowner's.

i understand that no one is ever going to agree with me now that this is probably the very best 3 year old crop in 50 years, but that is how i see it. CALIFORNIA CHROME runs against the best and gets better every time, while the rest of the horses are waiting to attack him, he has a bulls eye on his back.

the Belmont is going to be the toughest trip that CHROME will have, should he win this there will still be doubters.

in the recent triple crown attempts the horses were in the 1/5---3/5 range. CHROME is going to probably be over even money. that is how tough the betting public thinks this field is going to be. DANZA not running might actually hurt CHROMES chances, but personally, i really think he will be much better for the Belmont and answer the bell with flying colors.

[Mad Scientist]

Thaskalos -

Ok that's your opinion . I don't agree with any of it, but I am not going to knock you for having a opinion.

But the guy who said that smarty jones is better than CC because rock hard ten accomplished more as a older horse than ROC has .... Well that's just plain ....

I can see this guy writing a email to Rich Perloff on Tuesday afternoon stating that smarty jones is better than CC because the horse that smarty jones beat in the Preakness has won more grade 1 as a older horse than ROC has the horse that CC beat in the Preakness. I wonder if Perloff will overlook the fact that ROC has yet to have the chance to run as a older horse.

Something tells me that guy would get called worse than a idiot by Perloff on national tv.

[Mad Scientist]

Lamboguy-

I can only imagine the amount of hate that's going to be directed to CC after he wins the triple crown. I think we are going to see some amazing imitations of pretzels as people try to twist logic beyond belief to explain why CC is not worthy.

[Mad Scientist]

Actually the hate will probably be initially directed at the horses that CC ran against. Wicked Strong and ROC etc. will be proclaimed to be nothing more than glorified penn national 2500 claimers.

If you ask people to name the best 20 horses of all time don't expect to see secretariat or john Henry or zenyatta or cigar etc. no that list will be made up of the 19 horses that smarty jones faced in the Preakness.

People will rewrite history and claim war emblem faced wise dan , cigar, affirmed and alydar and man o war in his quest to win the triple crown.

The people that said CC could not win the derby instead of just giving CC his credit decided to just up the crazy instead for the Preakness and when he proved them wrong again they have just up the crazy even higher for the Belmont and when he wins the triple crown the crazy will be off the charts ...,

Orb made sense to them and kept the horse world in perfect order, he had the right trainer and the right ownership and the right breeding . CC not so much. They despise Steve Coburn and everything he represents . Art Sherman is nothing more than a golden gate specialist. Kinda like the Russell Baze of trainers to them and CC Definently does not have the right breeding for them. They just can't even bring themselves to say the word cal bred. CC turns the horse racing world upside down, so they need to fantasize things like rock hard ten was a grade 1 winning older horse when smarty jones beat him. Because that's all they have left to hold on to as CC just mythodically stomps every obstacle in his way to the triple crown.

You would think as self proclaimed horse players that they would be rooting for a triple crown or at the least not be foaming at the mouth dead set against it, but I guess that's just not the way it is ....

[thaskalos]

I might be wrong on this...but I don't remember seeing a single poster here say that California Chrome would lose the Preakness.

[SecretAgentMan]

I might be wrong on this...but I don't remember seeing a single poster here say that California Chrome would lose the Preakness.


Oh, there were a few saying he would lose......Onefast said Social Inclusion would beat Chrome, lol!

[Mad Scientist]

Yeah I think you may be wrong. Several people said that CC would lose the Preakness. SI had his own personal fan club here. Even Pace in his pre Preakness front page write up said he would not touch CC at anything less than 9-1 but would bet SI at 5/2 ....

[Grits]

You're going on ignore, Mad Scientist. I don't do this, and I hate to because you're knowledgeable. Still. I've had all of you I can take. You're overwhelming. If anyone new to racing came to the board interested in the Triple Crown, you'd kill it for them. They'd never stay. I can't understand why everyone here isn't sick of your dogma. Not to mention your exaggerations--opinions of past races, horses, owners, trainers, fans, and even more tiresome, your redundancy.

We're looking at two more long weeks of this. (Lord help us.) Never have I seen anyone so hung up on HATE. You're ruining something that so many are looking forward to.

[mostpost]

Yes, his running style helps him in creating his own luck...but this style is not going to be an asset to him come Belmont day. CC makes his big move early in the race...and then holds on for dear life.
Maybe you can help me here. Apparently I have been watching counterfeit videos of California Chrome's last six races. In the videos I have been watching he cruises along within a length or two of the lead. At the far turn, without being asked, he moves up on even terms with the leader. Then, at the quarter pole, Espinoza gives California Chrome the signal and he opens five to seven lengths in the next furlong. In varying degrees he is being eased in the last fifty yards.

The Preakness may have been somewhat of an exception. He moved earlier than he normally would have, although I would not consider the far turn as early in a mile and three sixteenths race. He did not open as many lengths as in previous races. He was being ridden at the end. Nevertheless. Ride on Curlin would not have caught him regardless of the distance.

[clocker7]

My dispute with the value bettors is that they generally abandon their metrics in a stretch of a bet against the favorite for these peculiar races.

My challenge to them: prove to me that any colt going 10f or 12f for the first time is either an underlay or an overlay, based upon methodologies that you use the other 47 weeks of the year.

What I am reading, instead, is a bunch of hunches and guesswork, based upon the odds board more than insight gained through a figure-based discipline. I lose respect for otherwise-grounded folks, especially when they disparage others that have other hunches that are equally invalid.

[Mad Scientist]

Clocker 7 -

Your making way too much sense. You better dumb it down a bit. The value players are out in force tonight ....

[mostpost]

I might be wrong on this...but I don't remember seeing a single poster here say that California Chrome would lose the Preakness.
I direct you to the "My Preakness Thoughts" thread. At least eight posters picked horses other than California Chrome to win the Preakness.

[Relwob Owner]

Oh, there were a few saying he would lose......Onefast said Social Inclusion would beat Chrome, lol!


I don't think the race has been written that Onefast believes Social Inclusion will lose......

[PaceAdvantage]

C'mon seriously .... Somebody says they are going to leave CC out of the exacta all together, and I respond with " thanks for the donation" , and I get called out for my " dickish ways " .

Don't you think that's being just a bit thin skinned ???

" Thanks for the donation " does not even qualify as the mildest form of trash talk, or if it does than it just barely qualifies ...

What are we a bunch of little old ladies ????

If "thanks for the donation" really offends some people that much than I suggest you stay away from the track because you are going to hear MUCH worse ....What's so shocking about leaving CC off altogether? Look what happened to Big Brown. If someone has the notion this horse won't get 12 furlongs, leaving him off is probably the smart move. It's a chance at bazongo boxcar prices

Saying to this person "thanks for your donation" is the equivalent of saying "you dope, you're throwing your money away." Or "Thanks for being an idiot."

You'll never get it I suppose. I still can't fathom how you can post stuff like this, and still be kicking my ass in the contest.

[PaceAdvantage]

Playing against a horse just because his odds are going to be short just makes zero sense to me. If the horse is the right horse than you have to use him regardless of his odds because the only tickets that pay out are going to be the tickets with him on it.Oh God please...please...how is this guy killing me? You post stuff like this and have the balls to thank someone else for their donation?

Here's a hint. No handicapper worth his or her salt is playing against CC simply because his odds are short. He's playing against a horse because he thinks his chances of winning do not warrant his short price, AND there is another horse in the race whose price is paying MORE THAN IT SHOULD given his chance of winning.

If you seriously think that 4 horses are going to finish ahead of CC in a race that he just towers above the competition in than that's fine, but don't call yourself a horseplayer , because your not. No horseplayer can look at this race on paper and say with a straight face that 4 horses are going to finish ahead of CC.If the prices offered on these four horses is large enough, ANY REAL horseplayer is going to get down on those four in a heartbeat.

[PaceAdvantage]

Yeah I think you may be wrong. Several people said that CC would lose the Preakness. SI had his own personal fan club here. Even Pace in his pre Preakness front page write up said he would not touch CC at anything less than 9-1 but would bet SI at 5/2 ....9-1? In the Preakness. You're mistaken.

[PaceAdvantage]

You're going on ignore, Mad Scientist. I don't do this, and I hate to because you're knowledgeable.Or just lucky.

[PaceAdvantage]

I direct you to the "My Preakness Thoughts" thread. At least eight posters picked horses other than California Chrome to win the Preakness.That's much different than saying the horse CAN'T WIN.

I never said CC couldn't win the Derby. And I never said he couldn't win the Preakness. And I'll never say he can't win the Belmont.

[ultracapper]

Actually the hate will probably be initially directed at the horses that CC ran against. Wicked Strong and ROC etc. will be proclaimed to be nothing more than glorified penn national 2500 claimers.

If you ask people to name the best 20 horses of all time don't expect to see secretariat or john Henry or zenyatta or cigar etc. no that list will be made up of the 19 horses that smarty jones faced in the Preakness.

People will rewrite history and claim war emblem faced wise dan , cigar, affirmed and alydar and man o war in his quest to win the triple crown.

The people that said CC could not win the derby instead of just giving CC his credit decided to just up the crazy instead for the Preakness and when he proved them wrong again they have just up the crazy even higher for the Belmont and when he wins the triple crown the crazy will be off the charts ...,

Orb made sense to them and kept the horse world in perfect order, he had the right trainer and the right ownership and the right breeding . CC not so much. They despise Steve Coburn and everything he represents . Art Sherman is nothing more than a golden gate specialist. Kinda like the Russell Baze of trainers to them and CC Definently does not have the right breeding for them. They just can't even bring themselves to say the word cal bred. CC turns the horse racing world upside down, so they need to fantasize things like rock hard ten was a grade 1 winning older horse when smarty jones beat him. Because that's all they have left to hold on to as CC just mythodically stomps every obstacle in his way to the triple crown.

You would think as self proclaimed horse players that they would be rooting for a triple crown or at the least not be foaming at the mouth dead set against it, but I guess that's just not the way it is ....

Honestly, I laughed out loud 3 or 4 times while reading this. There's some damn humorous stuff in here. Thanks for the laughs. The greatest horses of all time list as the horses that faced SJ in the Preakness had me choking.

[ultracapper]

Here is my opinion on the logic of the " value play " .


If you seriously think that 4 horses are going to finish ahead of CC in a race that he just towers above the competition in than that's fine, but don't call yourself a horseplayer , because your not. No horseplayer can look at this race on paper and say with a straight face that 4 horses are going to finish ahead of CC.

....

"Towers above". Man, I'm rooting for him as much as the next guy, but "towers"? Come on man.

[ten2oneormore]

"Towers above". Man, I'm rooting for him as much as the next guy, but "towers"? Come on man.

The guy just says things to get a reaction.Not sure why everyone hasn't figured this out yet and just ignore him.

[clocker7]

I wonder how many serious players bet against Cigar during his streak, and what it did to their thinking about leaving certain special horses alone, and giving up a betting opportunity to play the undercard nags instead ... I wonder if there was a guy or three that survived the slaughter and did a spike-the-football victory trot when they f-i-n-a-l-l-y cashed .....

[ultracapper]

I have a souvenier ticket from win #16. Getting pretty faded, but I have the form and program from Emerald Downs also.

[clocker7]

I have a souvenier ticket from win #16. Getting pretty faded, but I have the form and program from Emerald Downs also.
One reason why computer tickets are unpopular with serious collectors is that they fade faster than the old colored tickets do. And that they are odd sizes ... and wrinkle ... And there is a glut of them .... etc.

Keep it in the dark, or behind UV protective glass. My sister's displayed Affirmed KD ticket is nearly unreadable, while my many, preserved Alydar losers are verily mint. :D

[clocker7]

Back on point...

I wonder how many value bettors went "phewww" while collecting on a 5-1 Blame bet, after slogging through the battle against Zenyatta's odds ....

[elysiantraveller]

Back on point...

I wonder how many value bettors went "phewww" while collecting on a 5-1 Blame bet, after slogging through the battle against Zenyatta's odds ....
NO!
http://img1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20140320061041/powerlisting/images/archive/2/27/20140320061438!Facepalm_2.jpg

[Stillriledup]

NO!
http://img1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20140320061041/powerlisting/images/archive/2/27/20140320061438!Facepalm_2.jpg

:D

When people mention the "Z Word" all hell usually breaks loose!

[thaskalos]

Back on point...

I wonder how many value bettors went "phewww" while collecting on a 5-1 Blame bet, after slogging through the battle against Zenyatta's odds ....
If horses like Zenyatta were commonplace...then there would be no need to "value-bet". As it stands now though, it's tough to be right a large percentage of the time...so you can't play wide-open, without any concern for the odds that you are getting.

When people tell me that they can win by betting ahead of time, without EVER looking at the odds board...then I have to assume that I am talking to some pretty-rich guys. :rolleyes:

[clocker7]

I always love the straw man arguments ....

[ten2oneormore]

Back on point...

I wonder how many value bettors went "phewww" while collecting on a 5-1 Blame bet, after slogging through the battle against Zenyatta's odds ....

95% of Zenyatta's races were unbettable.Blame was probably the first chance to bet against her.

Not the case with California Chrome.At least as of now.

[clocker7]

95% of Zenyatta's races were unbettable.Blame was probably the first chance to bet against her.

Not the case with California Chrome.At least as of now.
I would like your thoughts on how to judge the relative merits of the possible entrants for the Belmont; how you determine which ones can go 12f; about which ones are the overlays, based upon their projected betting line vs. their chances to capture the race.

If you have any special insight--due to knowledge from inside the camp, or tips about how to extrapolate their figures to a longer race--then I'm all ears. As it stands now, all I'm hearing is that CC is a false favorite and that betting longshots represent better value of unknown value.

[elysiantraveller]

I would like your thoughts on how to judge the relative merits of the possible entrants for the Belmont; how you determine which ones can go 12f; about which ones are the overlays, based upon their projected betting line vs. their chances to capture the race.

If you have any special insight--due to knowledge from inside the camp, or tips about how to extrapolate their figures to a longer race--then I'm all ears. As it stands now, all I'm hearing is that CC is a false favorite and that betting longshots represent better value of unknown value.
Who here has said he is a false favorite?

In most peoples opinions here a 60-1 plodder is worth a shot a against a 1-5 favorite going a 1/4 mile further than he ever has...

[ten2oneormore]

I would like your thoughts on how to judge the relative merits of the possible entrants for the Belmont; how you determine which ones can go 12f; about which ones are the overlays, based upon their projected betting line vs. their chances to capture the race.

If you have any special insight--due to knowledge from inside the camp, or tips about how to extrapolate their figures to a longer race--then I'm all ears. As it stands now, all I'm hearing is that CC is a false favorite and that betting longshots represent better value of unknown value.

I think he is more of a vulnerable favorite rather than a false favorite.

I have to see the field and odds before I can say who I think is an overlay.

Imo you never really know who can get the distance until they do it.Perfect example is Union Rags.If I'm not mistaken his sire was like 0 for a million beyond 9f and he won the Belmont.All I can do is take an educated guess based on pps,replays,breeding, and pace figures .

There is no reason to think Chrome will have trouble with 12f . It's more of a 3rd race in 5 weeks while going an extra 2 furlongs, a target on his back , coming off his most grueling race in a while, and his likely odds.

[Some_One]

Reports that say there's -- that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things that we know that we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know.

—Donald Rumsfeld, United States Secretary of Defense

I think this quote perfectly summarizes the problem with California Chrome in the Belmont. To see it applied, we only need to look at what happened overseas on Sunday. Designs on Rome was the winner of the Hong Kong Derby and the International Group 1 QE II Cup in his last as he went into the gate as the 2-5 fav in the Champions and Chater Cup against a very soft field, some backclass, but noone near the current form of DoR. Easy victory, right?....Designs on Rome didn't even hit the board.

It was his first time over 2400, maybe he's just not that type of stayer?
The pace was 2 seconds slower after 1200 vs. the QEII pace, maybe with the added distance, it neutralized his powerful late kick?
He's had a long buildup leading to the HK Derby and QEII Cup, could he have been tired?

On paper, DoR was many lengths the best, but there was a lot of known unknowns, as Donald would put it, and in this case, they all were negatives for DoR.

For California Chrome, he faces many similar known unknowns as DoR did, if everything is run to the known knowns, he should win by a pole, but it's the Belmont, and usually the unknown unknown's rule the day. That's why I can't accept the 2-5 CC will probably be on Belmont day.

[ArlJim78]

Things you would never expect to see; a Donald Rumsfeld quote on a post about California Chrome. I did always like that quote though about known and unknown unknowns.

[rastajenk]

Rumsfeld on the Belmont: California Chrome "can win in one way or another . . . but it will be a long, hard slog."

[The WindfallAngler]

Rumsfeld on the Belmont: California Chrome "can win in one way or another . . . but it will be a long, hard slog."Once the SURGE has had its effect, we can reassess.

[mostpost]

I think this quote perfectly summarizes the problem with California Chrome in the Belmont. To see it applied, we only need to look at what happened overseas on Sunday. Designs on Rome was the winner of the Hong Kong Derby and the International Group 1 QE II Cup in his last as he went into the gate as the 2-5 fav in the Champions and Chater Cup against a very soft field, some backclass, but noone near the current form of DoR. Easy victory, right?....Designs on Rome didn't even hit the board.

It was his first time over 2400, maybe he's just not that type of stayer?
The pace was 2 seconds slower after 1200 vs. the QEII pace, maybe with the added distance, it neutralized his powerful late kick?
He's had a long buildup leading to the HK Derby and QEII Cup, could he have been tired?

On paper, DoR was many lengths the best, but there was a lot of known unknowns, as Donald would put it, and in this case, they all were negatives for DoR.

For California Chrome, he faces many similar known unknowns as DoR did, if everything is run to the known knowns, he should win by a pole, but it's the Belmont, and usually the unknown unknown's rule the day. That's why I can't accept the 2-5 CC will probably be on Belmont day.
I don't think there is any value to comparisons like this. California Chrome may or may not be able to handle the distance of the Belmont. That will be determined in the Belmont Stakes. What happened in the Champions and Chater Cup will have no effect.

[elhelmete]

There is no reason to think Chrome will have trouble with 12f . It's more of a 3rd race in 5 weeks while going an extra 2 furlongs, a target on his back , coming off his most grueling race in a while, and his likely odds.

This is exactly what I think as well.

It's silly to think strictly of who can or can't get 12f when none of the horses have ever run that distance and most won't ever again. Everyone is up against the "can he get 12f" question, just some are fresher than others.

[fmolf]

This is exactly what I think as well.

It's silly to think strictly of who can or can't get 12f when none of the horses have ever run that distance and most won't ever again. Everyone is up against the "can he get 12f" question, just some are fresher than others.
My question is how will he handle big sandy on race day.Training over it and running on it for a mile and a half are 2 different animals.I hope Espinoza is gonn ride a few races on the dirt earlier on the card.Gain a bit of knowledge of the oval,where the best place to be is...what path to take onthe turns...etc...etc

[SandyW]

I personally don't think that CC can lose the Belmont after watching the run outs in the Derby and the Preakness.
If CC runs in the Belmont, I expect him to romp. This horse is just getting started.

[thaskalos]

Can anyone recall the Beyer figure for this year's Preakness? I don't remember seeing it anywhere.

[Relwob Owner]

Can anyone recall the Beyer figure for this year's Preakness? I don't remember seeing it anywhere.

105 I think?

[SecretAgentMan]

105 I think?


Correct.......

[Some_One]

Another history lesson, courtesy of members of this very board, circa 2008, talking about the last triple crown attempt:

"That acceleration from Big Brown....
looks like when a G1 horse runs against cheap handicap horses as a tightner."

"Stop to take a gander at the ease in which this animal has crushed all on-comers thus far. Kicks - like he's displayed - don't come around very often and offers a breath of fresh air that reminds us some of the greats."

"The game has changed. We can't follow an illustratively productive running career anymore.... For what it's worth, I'd can the Sec[ertariat?]/BB comparatives."

"1) Big Brown- One win and he will be the 12 Triple Crown winner and looks as good as it’s ever been for horse that knocked down the first two legs. Push button speed will have him in perfect position when Kent asks for it. Turning for home Kent should be chilly and that means lights out for the rest. Top Pick "

Sounds a lot like the hype we're reading here.

[thaskalos]

Another history lesson, courtesy of members of this very board, circa 2008, talking about the last triple crown attempt:

"That acceleration from Big Brown....
looks like when a G1 horse runs against cheap handicap horses as a tightner."

"Stop to take a gander at the ease in which this animal has crushed all on-comers thus far. Kicks - like he's displayed - don't come around very often and offers a breath of fresh air that reminds us some of the greats."

"The game has changed. We can't follow an illustratively productive running career anymore.... For what it's worth, I'd can the Sec[ertariat?]/BB comparatives."

"1) Big Brown- One win and he will be the 12 Triple Crown winner and looks as good as it’s ever been for horse that knocked down the first two legs. Push button speed will have him in perfect position when Kent asks for it. Turning for home Kent should be chilly and that means lights out for the rest. Top Pick "

Sounds a lot like the hype we're reading here.

Exactly! :ThmbUp: How quickly we forget.

Horses who have been much more impressive than California Chrome during the first two legs of the TC have inexplicably tasted defeat at Belmont. It's a long and arduous road for these young horses, and they are not machines...even if they sometimes perform as if they were.

[SecretAgentMan]

Another history lesson, courtesy of members of this very board, circa 2008, talking about the last triple crown attempt:

"That acceleration from Big Brown....
looks like when a G1 horse runs against cheap handicap horses as a tightner."

"Stop to take a gander at the ease in which this animal has crushed all on-comers thus far. Kicks - like he's displayed - don't come around very often and offers a breath of fresh air that reminds us some of the greats."

"The game has changed. We can't follow an illustratively productive running career anymore.... For what it's worth, I'd can the Sec[ertariat?]/BB comparatives."

"1) Big Brown- One win and he will be the 12 Triple Crown winner and looks as good as it’s ever been for horse that knocked down the first two legs. Push button speed will have him in perfect position when Kent asks for it. Turning for home Kent should be chilly and that means lights out for the rest. Top Pick "

Sounds a lot like the hype we're reading here.


Big Brown had 3 races entering the derby, where was his foundation? He was over hyped & won impressively in the derby & Preakness........w/o foundation, its very difficult to won 3 races in 5 weeks........Real Quiet got the closest to winning the TC losing by a nose & he had 12 races under his belt going into the derby.

Chrome had 8 races going into the derby......gotta have that foundation which builds stamina....too bad Barbara broke down, I really wanted to see if he could have won it all with only 5 races entering the derby.

I stated Chrome was a better horse than Big Brown before the derby & now I think he's ahead of him entering the Belmont.

Chrome can only beat whose entered in the race.

[SecretAgentMan]

Exactly! :ThmbUp: How quickly we forget.

Horses who have been much more impressive than California Chrome during the first two legs of the TC have inexplicably tasted defeat at Belmont. It's a long and arduous road for these young horses, and they are not machines...even if they sometimes perform as if they were.

What constitutes impressiveness?

Winning by 11 lengths in the Preakness by Smarty Jones & not having enough in the tank for the Belmont? Although Elliot messed that up as well.....

Funny Cide winning by 9 lengths only to lose in Belmont?

Big Brown winning by over 5 lengths & then pulling up in Belmont?

Monarcho's almost beat Secretariats time in the derby by winning & never won another race in his life.

As long as Chrome is winning & wins the triple crown, he doesn't have to impress anyone doing it.........

[PaceAdvantage]

Big Brown had 3 races entering the derby, where was his foundation? He was over hyped & won impressively in the derby & Preakness........w/o foundation, its very difficult to won 3 races in 5 weeks........Real Quiet got the closest to winning the TC losing by a nose & he had 12 races under his belt going into the derby.

Chrome had 8 races going into the derby......gotta have that foundation which builds stamina....too bad Barbara broke down, I really wanted to see if he could have won it all with only 5 races entering the derby.

I stated Chrome was a better horse than Big Brown before the derby & now I think he's ahead of him entering the Belmont.

Chrome can only beat whose entered in the race.Weren't you the one who kept saying bad things happen in the Belmont and that you weren't betting CC in the Belmont?

But now you recently posted CC is unbeatable..

Maybe I have you confused with someone else.

[SecretAgentMan]

Weren't you the one who kept saying bad things happen in the Belmont and that you weren't betting CC in the Belmont?

But now you recently posted CC is unbeatable..

Maybe I have you confused with someone else.


Yes, that was me, & that was before Danza was scratched & several others........I really believe the only horse that had a chance to beat Chrome was Danza. With him out of the way, I feel Chrome will win.......just don't see any horse that will beat him in this field unless Untapable gets in to make it interesting.

IMO, Chrome will now lose this race only if something that happened to Barbara happens here.

Also, we are allowed to change our minds before the race, not after ......:)

[PaceAdvantage]

IMO, Chrome will now lose this race only if something that happened to Barbara happens here.Streisand?

[SecretAgentMan]

Streisand?


HaHa......I can't edit that post now. Its Barbaro......

[BlueChip@DRF]

It is when it begins to look too easy it turns around and bites you in the ass.

[Wickel]

I'm still doubting, although rooting that Chrome wins it all. The Belmont is an unpredictable monster and the distance the big elephant in the room. Meanwhile, Ride On Curlin has found his best stride, Tonalist is prepped for a top effort and Wicked Strong and Commissioner lurk in the shadows. But these are all closers. Hopefully Chrome ends the TC drought, but as a saver, I'm going back to Social Inclusion. After being fractious in the gate, breaking awkwardly and being rushed into contention, his fate was sealed. IMO, it was a horrible ride by Contreras. If SI gets a clear lead in Preakness (like his pps pointed to), we might have had a different outcome. I'm crossing my fingers in hopes that Azpurua and Sanchez attract a top-flight rider, such as Johnny V. now that Intense Holiday is out, or Mike Smith (is he free?). Ironically, the Belmont has been more friendly to speed horses in recent years. If Social Inclusion gets free up front, he could, go all the way! Then again, the big elephant in the room might swallow him up at the eighth pole.

[SecretAgentMan]

Social is 50/50 on whether he race......I rather he race, that way Chrome will sit comfortle behind while others like Samraat will chase.

[BlueChip@DRF]

It might be a "Who???????" contender that wins The Belmont.

[SecretAgentMan]

It might be a "Who???????" contender that wins The Belmont.


Keep calm & bet the bomb? You mean likecSarava or Lemon Drop Kid...........


Well, we've had 11 triple crown winners to date & 11 horses tried to win since 1979 & now comes Chrome who is the 12th horse since 1979 trying to become the 12th triple crown winner.......the stars have aligned for him.

[Stillriledup]

Keep calm & bet the bomb? You mean likecSarava or Lemon Drop Kid...........


Well, we've had 11 triple crown winners to date & 11 horses tried to win since 1979 & now comes Chrome who is the 12th horse since 1979 trying to become the 12th triple crown winner.......the stars have aligned for him.

What "Stars" have aligned for him that didn't align for the other 11 horses who tried and failed since 1979?

[mountainman]

Everyone is up against the "can he get 12f" question

But only one of them will be 3/5.

[Stillriledup]

But only one of them will be 3/5.

And only one of them will have had 500 press members following them around and being 3 feet from the horse at all times. Besides having to swallow 3-5 or 1-2, you're swallowing that with a jock who's not a regular Belmont rider and you're also not getting a horse who was "Freshened" after the Derby.

[Stillriledup]

Streisand?

That would be funny if her name was actually Barbara. :D

[The WindfallAngler]

What "Stars" have aligned for him that didn't align for the other 11 horses who tried and failed since 1979? These leap to mind: 1.) Potential first ever Cal bred Triple Crown champ, 2.) Winner of Final Hollypark stakes race (before Hollywood Park closed its doors), 3.) Belmont announcer's last chance to call a Triple Crown winner.

[tucker6]

These leap to mind: 1.) Potential first ever Cal bred Triple Crown champ, 2.) Winner of Final Hollypark stakes race (before Hollywood Park closed its doors), 3.) Belmont announcer's last chance to call a Triple Crown winner.
Those aren't stars. Those are the reasons newbies bet horses and never cash out. Stars aligning would be a main challenger dropping out, or the likely pace setup being favorable, or if the track is fast instead of muddy.

[depalma113]

Those aren't stars. Those are the reasons newbies bet horses and never cash out. Stars aligning would be a main challenger dropping out, or the likely pace setup being favorable, or if the track is fast instead of muddy.

The horse doesn't need stars. He's not facing anything of substance.

[ultracapper]

Stars can't hurt

[Boris]

Stars can't hurt
Yeah, but it's not like the moon and stars have aligned. Find me a moon angle and I'm in.

[PaceAdvantage]

That would be funny if her name was actually Barbara. :DYou got me...and here I thought I might have spelled her last name wrong... :lol: :lol:

[overthehill]

I cant disagree with you more. history would indicate that CC is facing a tremendous uphill battle winning the belmont. Other than affirmed who was based in new york as a two year old, i cant think of a california based horse who won the belmont.

[JustRalph]

Some people around here talk like the last furlong in the Belmont is an escalator ride. I say it again....... It's where dreams go to die............

I hope he wins. But I don't think it does a damn thing for racing. A weekend after the Belmont nobody will care

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Big Brown had 3 races entering the derby, where was his foundation? He was over hyped & won impressively in the derby & Preakness........w/o foundation, its very difficult to won 3 races in 5 weeks........Real Quiet got the closest to winning the TC losing by a nose & he had 12 races under his belt going into the derby.

Chrome had 8 races going into the derby......gotta have that foundation which builds stamina....too bad Barbara broke down, I really wanted to see if he could have won it all with only 5 races entering the derby.

I stated Chrome was a better horse than Big Brown before the derby & now I think he's ahead of him entering the Belmont.

Chrome can only beat whose entered in the race.

Chrome actually had 10 races under his belt going into the Derby, but three of them early last year. I'd really like to see the stats on how many 2YOs who are precocious enough to start their careers so early (and win), and then go on to have successful 3YO campaigns. It can't be very many. And to win two Triple Crown races? I can't think of another horse who even remotely compares. Many of the decent 3YOs raced in the BC Juvenile, but usually finishing back in the pack - until Street Sense broke the "jinx".

This unusual pattern is why I'll be betting against CC in the Belmont (you're welcome). There's a balance between "foundation" and running the horse's tank dry - each pony only has so many races in them. The tank is getting more empty, unless CC is truly a magnificent freak.

[Mystic]

Some people around here talk like the last furlong in the Belmont is an escalator ride. I say it again....... It's where dreams go to die............

I hope he wins. But I don't think it does a damn thing for racing. A weekend after the Belmont nobody will care

I think your wrong on this. It will be all over the media and I would think maybe even a movie would be made. What a great story it is and will be should this horse pull it off.

[elysiantraveller]

I think your wrong on this. It will be all over the media and I would think maybe even a movie would be made. What a great story it is and will be should this horse pull it off.
This sport is for bettors. It would be a story sure...a huge one even... but it wouldn't do anything for the sport.

[Mystic]

This sport is for bettors. It would be a story sure...a huge one even... but it wouldn't do anything for the sport.
It sure would put it in a "happy, feel-good" light for a change.

[JustRalph]

I think your wrong on this. It will be all over the media and I would think maybe even a movie would be made. What a great story it is and will be should this horse pull it off.

Movie? Who's the protaganist? Who's the antagonist?

The horse beats everybody, doesn't overcome any real obstacles? Except maybe supposed poor breeding, cheap connections? Those don't pull people to the theaters.

There's no rival, nobody who got in his way, he didn't overcome an injury. Not much of a movie. Maybe a 60 minute documentary for horseplayers

[SecretAgentMan]

If Chrome wins the TC, this will be one of the best horse racing movies of all time. There are lots of stories intertwined within this horse. I can name at least 5 & if you've read most that's been written, you would know.........the horse can only beat the horses that are presented in the race. Who did Secretariat beat that was do awesome in Belmont?

Enjoy the ride cause you won't see another like this for quite a while.........

[Mystic]

Movie? Who's the protaganist? Who's the antagonist?

The horse beats everybody, doesn't overcome any real obstacles? Except maybe supposed poor breeding, cheap connections? Those don't pull people to the theaters.

There's no rival, nobody who got in his way, he didn't overcome an injury. Not much of a movie. Maybe a 60 minute documentary for horseplayers
Wow.. I guess we will just have to disagree on this.

[mostpost]

Chrome actually had 10 races under his belt going into the Derby, but three of them early last year. I'd really like to see the stats on how many 2YOs who are precocious enough to start their careers so early (and win), and then go on to have successful 3YO campaigns. It can't be very many. And to win two Triple Crown races? I can't think of another horse who even remotely compares. Many of the decent 3YOs raced in the BC Juvenile, but usually finishing back in the pack - until Street Sense broke the "jinx".
If you are looking at the last 35 years, you are absolutely correct. If a trainer has a horse which he feels has classic potential, he will not start that horse until later in his two year old season. But it wasn't always that way. In the fifties, sixties and early seventies many of our classic winners and many of our outstanding older horses began their careers in April or even March and February.
Bold Ruler; first start as a two year old April 9. He was the champion three year old the following year and one of the top handicap horses the year after.

Native Dancer; first start as a two year old April 19. He was top three year old in 1953 and horse of the year in 1954.

Round Table's first start as a two year old was on Feb. 24, 1956. He raced three times before the end of April. He was one of the best three year olds of 1957; top handicap horse; top grass horse and horse of the year in 1958 and top handicap horse and top grass horse in 1959.

Carry Back made his debut on Jan.30, 1960. He raced seven times before May 1, 1960. The next year he won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness and was the three year old champion. He continued to race until he was five.

There are many, many examples like this. The point I am trying to make is that we should not be surprised that California Chrome began his racing career early and is now enjoying resounding success. That is probably the reason for his success.

Somewhere along the line, the new breed of genius trainers got it in their mind that babying the athlete was the way to go. In no other sport is this the case. Football players don't train one day a week. Basketball players work out and practice between games. Even baseball players have fielding and hitting practice before games. Pitchers throw between starts.

Also, some time in the last couple of decades, experts with no connection to racing started making noise about how we should not race young horses. They said their bones were not sufficiently developed; they could not stand the stress. What I think is that it was the racing at the young age that strengthened and developed those bones and muscles.

You would be right if you said that I am not a veterinarian or any kind of expert on horses. But we have been training and racing horses in this manner for over two decades and frankly the results pretty much suck. Very few horses have long successful careers. Rarely is the top two year old the top three year old the following year. In fact the last time it happened was Spectacular Bid.

Edited because there are two "I"s in veterinarian. I must have tried a dozen variations before I looked it up. :rolleyes:

[Tom]

The movie has a shot......if you put Mad Scientist in it! :bang:

[mostpost]

Movie? Who's the protaganist? Who's the antagonist?

The horse beats everybody, doesn't overcome any real obstacles? Except maybe supposed poor breeding, cheap connections? Those don't pull people to the theaters.

There's no rival, nobody who got in his way, he didn't overcome an injury. Not much of a movie. Maybe a 60 minute documentary for horseplayers
Here is how I would pitch the California Chrome movie.
Two middle class families-the Coburns and the Martins-from Nevada buy an unproven mare for $2,500. We start with Steve and Perry signing the contract to buy Love the Chase, then flash back to how they met, where they work and other personal items. Then we go to the scenes of them breeding their mare. The first breeding that failed to take, then when that stallion was not available the next year, breeding to Lucky Pulpit. Next Cal Ch
foaling, his early health problems and how they were overcome. Fast forward to hiring Art Sherman and his story complete with a flash back to his trip to the Derby in 1955 with Swaps.

The story of CC's racing career has plenty of drama. He was not a world beater from the start. He had-still has-plenty of skeptics. How he improved-how he overcame his doubters is an interesting story. It is actually a more interesting story than the story of Secretariat who was regally bred by one of the top families in racing. And trained by one of the top trainers. That is it would be more interesting if California Chrome wins the Triple Crown.

If they need an antagonist, they should just hire you. Just be yourself and you're a shoo in for an Oscar.

[elysiantraveller]

Movie? Who's the protaganist? Who's the antagonist?

The horse beats everybody, doesn't overcome any real obstacles? Except maybe supposed poor breeding, cheap connections? Those don't pull people to the theaters.

There's no rival, nobody who got in his way, he didn't overcome an injury. Not much of a movie. Maybe a 60 minute documentary for horseplayers

Nonsense... they'll give him all kinds of anthropomorphic qualities.

He'll grow up in inner Philly, a feeling that he didn't belong because he came from the wrong side of the tracks, despite his talents he feels a life of crime is his only option...

Then he gets his one big shot... gets an angry Irishman to train him and the rest is history...
:ThmbUp:

Hell they might even do a sequel.

[mostpost]

The movie has a shot......if you put Mad Scientist in it! :bang:They've already done that movie. It was called "One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest."

[Mystic]

If they need an antagonist, they should just hire you. Just be yourself and you're a shoo in for an Oscar.
:lol:

[Mystic]

They've already done that movie. It was called "One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest."
Man! You are on a roll!

Fine work :D

[mostpost]

Nonsense... they'll give him all kinds of anthropomorphic qualities.

He'll grow up in inner Philly, a feeling that he didn't belong because he came from the wrong side of the tracks, despite his talents he feels a life of crime is his only option...

Then he gets his one big shot... gets an angry Irishman to train him and the rest is history...
:ThmbUp:

Hell they might even do a sequel.
I only regret that Leo Gorcey is no longer around to play California Chrome. :(

[ILovetheInner]

Who did Secretariat beat that was do awesome in Belmont?

One thing to remember about Secretariat is that he was a household word before he won the Derby. No one doubted his mastery, only his ability to get the trip. He did a lot of fast running at two, up against a pretty nice colt himself in Stop the Music. It made him Horse of the Year. Already a legend, he was syndicated for a record sum before he ran in the TC. I am not the biggest Secretariat fan post TC....my Big Red remains Man O'War....but in terms of comparisons they are pretty pointless. There was only one Secretariat and he was awe inspiring. It doesn't matter who he beat in the Belmont all that much...it was his 11th masterful stakes win at his seventh different track. He was a Hollywood horse prior to the TC, with everyone primed after so long a drought, appetites whetted for things getting closer (Majestic Prince, Cannonero, the unlucky Little Current, Riva). In terms of his crop....it was a good one. It yielded two racing legends who accounted for Horse of the Year for five consecutive years. History has treated him very well, and visually he still remains other worldly.

[Rackon]

What early health problems? CC was healthy as a...horse. The mare had a foaling injury. CC IRL was never sick or injured.

In typical Hollywood style the script might make him an orphan.

[dilanesp]

If you are looking at the last 35 years, you are absolutely correct. If a trainer has a horse which he feels has classic potential, he will not start that horse until later in his two year old season. But it wasn't always that way. In the fifties, sixties and early seventies many of our classic winners and many of our outstanding older horses began their careers in April or even March and February.

And, of course, the last Triple Crown winner in 1978 had one of the most stressful (and impressive) 2 year old seasons in American racing history. (Of course, his trainer was very different from the modern folks and believed very strongly in racing his horses into condition, whether it be a classics contender or a cheap claimer.)

[Hoofless_Wonder]

If you are looking at the last 35 years, you are absolutely correct.....

Native Dancer
Round Table
Carry Back

There are many, many examples like this. The point I am trying to make is that we should not be surprised that California Chrome began his racing career early and is now enjoying resounding success....

Some excellent examples there, Mostpost, but this is 2014 and not 1954. Maybe racing the horses more often when they are younger help build their foundation, and maybe modern trainers are just taking a different approach to the classics.

Or maybe not.

In this world of instant gratification and short attention spans, I find it VERY difficult to believe that racing a horse more often as a 2 YO would help them later. Surely that's been tried?

I'm not a vet either, or a biologist, but horses have WILDLY different physiologies than humans, so I don't believe the comparisons are valid to racing and conditioning between the two species.

On the other hand, we do know that generations of inbreeding and drugs are influencing the stock of today, and I think that's why horses with longer campaigns and careers are so rare. They ain't just built on hay, oats and water anymore. In spite of times and figures dropping a bit, I think the races today are much more stressful on a horse, as the modern chemistry and prepping of the horses are geared for much higher efforts.

I'm not only surprised at California Chrome's success, I'm shocked. He's an aberration that's got to be several standard deviations outside of normal, even taking into consideration the rather suspect horses he's been beating.

It's hardly a brave prediction to say CC will fail in his Triple Crown bid, or be done racing after the Belmont. The stats are pretty clear on that....

[nijinski]

And, of course, the last Triple Crown winner in 1978 had one of the most stressful (and impressive) 2 year old seasons in American racing history. (Of course, his trainer was very different from the modern folks and believed very strongly in racing his horses into condition, whether it be a classics contender or a cheap claimer.)

He did but..
Affirmed and the other TC winners of the 70's were turned out before they
turned three . I remember reading trainers thought it was better for their
mental and physical being ..
Affirmed was amazing in my opinion .

Results , Up to the Derby and between age two and three .

Churchill Downs 5/6/1978 8 Kentucky Derby - Gr. 1 1
Hollywood Park 4/16/1978 8 Hollywood Derby - Gr. 1 1
Santa Anita 4/2/1978 8 Santa Anita Derby - Gr. 1 1
Santa Anita 3/18/1978 8 San Felipe Handicap - Gr. 2 1
Santa Anita 3/8/1978 6 Allowance 1
Laurel Park 10/29/1977 8 Laurel Futurity - Gr. 1 1
Belmont Park 10/15/1977 6 Champagne Stakes - Gr. 1 2
Belmont Park 9/10/1977 8 Futurity Stakes - Gr. 1 1
Saratoga 8/27/1977 8 Hopeful Stakes - Gr. 1 1
Saratoga 8/17/1977 8 Sanford Stakes - Gr. 2 1
Hollywood Park 7/23/1977 5 Hollywood Juvenile Championship Stakes - Gr. 2 1
Belmont Park 7/6/1977 8 Great American Stakes 2
Belmont Park 6/15/1977 8 Youthful Stakes 1
Belmont Park 5/24/1977 4 Maiden Special Weight 1

[biggestal99]

How can you compare Rock Hard Ten to ROC or any horse that CC has beat so far ????

Lets see I am handicapper of many years. Do you really think in your heart of hearts that Ride On Curlin is equal to or better than Rock hard Ten.

Here's my handicapping take on Ride On Curlin. grade 1 winner going long? I am thinking no.

His two wins so far a maiden at Ellis Park going 5.5F in 103 as a two year old
and an Allowance win at Oaklawn going 6f in 113.

Could he get better and win the big cap (or any grade 1 routing) next year as Rock Hard Ten did.

Highly unlikely,

Allan

[clocker7]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/01/sports/an-impressive-workout-by-california-chrome-electrifies-belmont-park.html?_r=0

The phone in the clockers’ room began to ring. Peter Gulemas, who has worked for New York Racing Association for 20 years, skipped a formal greeting and said, “clockers” and “main track.” The phone rang so often that he changed his greeting to, “New York Daily News.”

“Do you want to know about your horse or California Chrome?” he said to the caller, a trainer. “He’s unbelievable, huh? Very good, very good. He was something.”

Outside, the parking lot closest to the track was full. On the apron, near the official Belmont news conference area, fans mingled with curious horsemen and journalists.

“I’ve never seen this many people here in the morning,” Gulemas said. “There was never a crowd like this for Smarty Jones or Funny Cide, and those were considered people’s horses, especially Funny Cide, who was a New York-bred.”

[clocker7]

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/triplecrown2014/story/_/id/11012573/california-chrome-ready-triple-crown-bid-perfect-run-belmont-park-trainer-says

Chrome didn't appear to be breathing heavily when his last major workout for the Belmont was over. He didn't wear blinkers -- which he'll wear for the race -- because Sherman didn't want him to go too fast.

[taxicab]

They've already done that movie. It was called "One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest."

In the Mad Scientist case wouldn't it be......."One Cuckoo Flew Over The Rest" ? :eek: