California Chrome 116 TimeformUS speed figure in Preakness

[cj]

Ride On Curlin 114, Social Inclusion 108.

This is how he looked coming in:

[ArlJim78]

Social Inclusion engaging him on the turn probably helped to push that number up a bit.

[SecretAgentMan]

I loved how everyone's speed figs went down from the last prep race going into the derby.......it was showing me that Chrome was gonna have a big race in the Preakness.


Cj......what kind of speed fig are you expecting from the Belmont winner? Like whats the average fig from the Belmont winners?

[JustRalph]

I'm shocked SI ran as well as he did. Pretty good number all things considered

I loved the horse until I saw him behind the gate. If I had money on him I would have been canceling as fast as possible. The fact that he ran third after being so worked up shocks me

[Robert Fischer]

I loved how everyone's speed figs went down from the last prep race going into the derby.......it was showing me that Chrome was gonna have a big race in the Preakness.

Cj stood by his 110 in the Derby, and a lot of the figure makers (Beyer) had really knocked California Chrome's Derby effort.

This Preakness figure backs that up. Not only did Chrome run big again visually, the time for the Preakness was also pretty fast. Will be interesting to see what how his Beyer comes out.

[ArlJim78]

I agree, its a feather in the cap for TimeformUS. He called it.
I've learned to trust my eye, and I knew something was amiss with the derby Beyer. It did not look like a big regression despite what the figure said. The thread on wind was highly illuminating as well.

[cj's dad]

Cj stood by his 110 in the Derby, and a lot of the figure makers (Beyer) had really knocked California Chrome's Derby effort.

This Preakness figure backs that up. Not only did Chrome run big again visually, the time for the Preakness was also pretty fast. Will be interesting to see what how his Beyer comes out.

I am probably biased here, but isn't it time Beyers figs were put out to pasture ? Here's a guy who uses one # to fit all scenarios. he reminds me of the 70 year old referees doing games in the NBA. Past his prime and not doing fine. Timeform #s bury him.

[Bullet Plane]

I agree, its a feather in the cap for TimeformUS. He called it.
I've learned to trust my eye, and I knew something was amiss with the derby Beyer. It did not look like a big regression despite what the figure said. The thread on wind was highly illuminating as well.


Agree!!

[Seabiscuit@AR]

There were only 2 other horses backing up from the Derby in the Preakness. They finished 2nd and 4th in the Preakness after finishing 7th and 11th in the Derby. This indicates the Preakness field was weaker than the Derby field

Both Ride on Curlin and General A Rod finished closer to California Chrome in the Preakness than they did in the Derby

Does it make sense for California Chrome's figure to jump by 6 points from the Derby to the Preakness when he has faced a weaker field and beaten the common horses from these races by lesser margins?

The only reason for the speed rating to jump is the time was much better in the Preakness than in the Derby. Given the time was slow in the Derby I have no problems with Beyer rating the race slow as the time was slow that day. If your ratings are based on time and the race is run in slow time you cannot give the horse a high rating for that race. This is all Beyer did and I see nothing wrong with that

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm shocked SI ran as well as he did. Pretty good number all things considered

I loved the horse until I saw him behind the gate. If I had money on him I would have been canceling as fast as possible. The fact that he ran third after being so worked up shocks meHe was worked up in the Wood and didn't run a terrible race...

[cj]

The only reason for the speed rating to jump is the time was much better in the Preakness than in the Derby. Given the time was slow in the Derby I have no problems with Beyer rating the race slow as the time was slow that day. If your ratings are based on time and the race is run in slow time you cannot give the horse a high rating for that race. This is all Beyer did and I see nothing wrong with that

If it were only that easy.

California Chrome did not run slow in the Derby. The clock just made it look that way, but there were a lot of extenuating circumstances not see on a "normal" racing day.

It made no sense to say a horse that won our biggest race EASILY did it while regressing several lengths. It didn't make sense visually, and it didn't make sense numerically. I stated why after the Derby and well before the Preakness.

[Augenj]

If it were only that easy.

California Chrome did not run slow in the Derby. The clock just made it look that way, but there were a lot of extenuating circumstances not see on a "normal" racing day.

It made no sense to say a horse that won our biggest race EASILY did it while regressing several lengths. It didn't make sense visually, and it didn't make sense numerically. I stated why after the Derby and well before the Preakness.
The voice of sanity. :ThmbUp:

[goatchaser]

There were only 2 other horses backing up from the Derby in the Preakness. They finished 2nd and 4th in the Preakness after finishing 7th and 11th in the Derby. This indicates the Preakness field was weaker than the Derby field

Both Ride on Curlin and General A Rod finished closer to California Chrome in the Preakness than they did in the Derby

Does it make sense for California Chrome's figure to jump by 6 points from the Derby to the Preakness when he has faced a weaker field and beaten the common horses from these races by lesser margins?

The only reason for the speed rating to jump is the time was much better in the Preakness than in the Derby. Given the time was slow in the Derby I have no problems with Beyer rating the race slow as the time was slow that day. If your ratings are based on time and the race is run in slow time you cannot give the horse a high rating for that race. This is all Beyer did and I see nothing wrong with thatYou don't think going from a 19 race field to a 9 horse race field make a difference? Easier to position your horse where you want to? Both got trouble free rides and still couldn't beat him? Ride on Curlin had a perfect trip getting to the rail quickly and had dead aim on CC turning for home. But I feel they could have went around again and he wouldn't have passed him. Victor was showing the whip from about the 1/8 pole in then tucked it way for a hand ride to the finish.
I know the Belmont is a different animal. But Sat CC was the best horse in the race hands down.

[reckless]

I am probably biased here, but isn't it time Beyers figs were put out to pasture ? Here's a guy who uses one # to fit all scenarios. he reminds me of the 70 year old referees doing games in the NBA. Past his prime and not doing fine. Timeform #s bury him.

You could be biased, yes, but you are also quite correct as well!

By that, not only was CJ right on the Cali Chrome's Derby fig, etc., but I always thought Andy Beyer reminded me of Mendy Rudolph to boot! :).

[onefast99]

105 beyer for CC.

[cj]

Cleaned up some WAY off topic posts here courtesy of Mad Scientist.

[taxicab]

Cleaned up some WAY off topic posts here courtesy of Mad Scientist.
Hence the "Mad" in Scientist.

[luisbe]

If it were only that easy.

California Chrome did not run slow in the Derby. The clock just made it look that way, but there were a lot of extenuating circumstances not see on a "normal" racing day.

It made no sense to say a horse that won our biggest race EASILY did it while regressing several lengths. It didn't make sense visually, and it didn't make sense numerically. I stated why after the Derby and well before the Preakness.

I disagree with that. The races before the KD are not by any means a measure when they have to negotiate 10 furlongs for the first time.
Everybody is counting too much on figures and that's only an angle in the process of handicapping a race.
The Preakness is a notch shorter and that might have helped to return to most regular figures these horses have already run (ROC even improved it).
Let's see at the Belmont what happens. It's a huge error handicapping this one comparing performances by their previous figures.
CC is simply the best of these bunch, period.

[Tom]

CJ's numbers pretty much say that, no?