Who will challenge CC for the TC at the Belmont?

[rvaccha]

I posted a similar thread two weeks ago!

So...having seen CC run at the KD and the Preakness...

What are the predictions for the Belmont...any real contenders?

Did anyone from today pose a serious threat?

May the best horse win!

rvaccha

[Boris]

God. Maybe the only one that can beat.

[razorback5]

God. Maybe the only one that can beat.
That's what I thought with Smarty Jones.

[Robert Fischer]

I hope he wins!

[tucker6]

That's what I thought with Smarty Jones.
I thought Smarty was vulnerable in the Belmont. I don't feel the same way with CC. He was in control of this entire race from gate to finish line. Impressive performance by both the horse and jockey.

[RaceBookJoe]

I'll try with Commanding Curve and extreme longshot Bay of Plenty if they choose to run.

[Stillriledup]

He can get beat.

If i thought his winning would be "Great for racing" i would root for it, but you know assume he wins the TC, we have a few moments of excitement, a few days even a few weeks even the rest of the year, but when that wears off, we have California Chrome and Secretariat in the same pantheon.

Is the brief excitement worth it?

I'll say this, if he wins the Belmont, i would love to see him win by 10 like a superhorse rather than him holding on barely for life beating some forgettable horse by a diminishing nose.

I would also recommend Victor to start riding at Belmont, get really used to that surface and track, that could be the difference between winning and losing, there's no reason for him to NOT ride there, this is a chance that only comes down the pike once in a very long time.

But, is he smart enough to ride there for the next few weeks, or will he show up on Belmont Stakes day and ride 1 undercard race before he gets a leg up?

[ten2oneormore]

Tonalist or Danza?

[thaskalos]

I am so sure California Chrome will lose the Belmont...that I will never submit another post here if I am wrong.

[tucker6]

I am so sure California Chrome will lose the Belmont...that I will never submit another post here if I am wrong.
I like you, so I hope you reconsider your choice of poison.

[bcgreg]

I swear SRU...you are stormy on the brightest day!

bcgreg

[razorback5]

I thought Smarty was vulnerable in the Belmont. I don't feel the same way with CC. He was in control of this entire race from gate to finish line. Impressive performance by both the horse and jockey.
Smarty won the Preakness by 12 CC by 1 1/2. IMHO Smarty would have won but Rock Hard Ten and Eddington uncharacteristically got into a speed dual. I hope they make CC earn it.

[porchy44]

T-O-N-A-L-I-S-T

If CC gets by him we finally get the first triple crown winner since 1978

[rvaccha]

Wow thaskalos...I hope you continue to post on here!

just curious...what makes you so confident...would love to get your thoughts

[BlueChip@DRF]

I'll try with Commanding Curve and extreme longshot Bay of Plenty if they choose to run.

I like these two a lot.

[tucker6]

Smarty won the Preakness by 12 CC by 1 1/2. IMHO Smarty would have won but Rock Hard Ten and Eddington uncharacteristically got into a speed dual. I hope they make CC earn it.
I understand, but CC is more versatile and more able to accept changes in a race than Smarty was. I loved Smarty, but he wasn't as versatile as CC is.

[RacingFan1992]

I am not picking California Chrome until 30 minutes from the start of the race because he may get hurt and have to scratch. Just Sayin'.

[TheEdge07]

Riders will make sure CC will earn it..

[Mad Scientist]

I think Chrome will inherit the lead right from the gate in the Belmont. I don't foresee any horse being entered that will be faster than Chrome early and I don't see Chrome being rated just for the sake of rating him. Being on a nice easy lead is just as good ....

[tucker6]

Riders will make sure CC will earn it..
exactly, which is why I like CC's versatility for the Belmont. He moved way early in the Preakness due to SI and still had plenty in the tank to win going away.

[SecretAgentMan]

Chrome had the perfect trip in the derby, but he was pressed in the Preakness & having the excellent push button acceleration, I don't see any horse beating him.

Chrome is gonna be the 13th Triple Crown winner......

[tucker6]

Chrome had the perfect trip in the derby, but he was pressed in the Preakness & having the excellent push button acceleration, I don't see any horse beating him.

Chrome is gonna be the 13th Triple Crown winner...... won't it be the 12th??

[Cratos]

Chrome had the perfect trip in the derby, but he was pressed in the Preakness & having the excellent push button acceleration, I don't see any horse beating him.

Chrome is gonna be the 13th Triple Crown winner......

The 13th? Did I miss a few

[cosmicway]

Don't tell me that was n't a lucky break !
Ride on Curlin infringed by weakening Social Inclusion just when he was going to unleash the final effort to beat CC on the wire.
Could he have escaped ?
A Zenyatta thriller was in the make.

[SecretAgentMan]

LoL.....yes, the 12th triple crown winner, LoL!

My wishful thinking had me thinking of the unlucky number 13.......

[Boris]

Don't tell me that was n't a lucky break !
Ride on Curlin infringed by weakening Social Inclusion just when he was going to unleash the final effort to beat CC on the wire.
Could he have escaped ?
A Zenyatta thriller was in the make.
I had the ROC/CC exacta.
I didn't have the CC/ROC exacta.
I completely disagree.

[cosmicway]

I had the ROC/CC exacta.
I didn't have the CC/ROC exacta.
I completely disagree.

The infringement + time to change step takes ROC bang there.
CC might have escaped by a cat's whisker. Might.

[Dark Horse]

http://cdn.bloodhorse.com/images/content/CaliforniaChrome05122014FlightRS298.jpg

CC: "Hey Ride On. That all you got?"
ROC: "Just makes for a better crash land, bud."

[beefas]

And what if cc gets a far outside pp?. Just saying,, if we get a big field of horses which I think there's going to be ,, I think this might hurt his chances?

[andtheyreoff]

And what if cc gets a far outside pp?. Just saying,, if we get a big field of horses which I think there's going to be ,, I think this might hurt his chances?

It's about a quarter mile to the first turn in the Belmont. I think he'll be ok regardless.

[Robert Fischer]

The infringement + time to change step takes ROC bang there.
CC might have escaped by a cat's whisker. Might.

Hard to tell.
Ride On Curlin was moving good when he brushed with Social Inclusion. He also appeared to flatten just a bit in the final yards.

[RacingFan1992]

One white foot, buy him.
Two white feet, try him.
Three white feet, be on the sly.
Four white feet, pass him by

I think this saying should be on the way out.

[taxicab]

He can get beat.

If i thought his winning would be "Great for racing" i would root for it, but you know assume he wins the TC, we have a few moments of excitement, a few days even a few weeks even the rest of the year, but when that wears off, we have California Chrome and Secretariat in the same pantheon.

Is the brief excitement worth it?

I'll say this, if he wins the Belmont, i would love to see him win by 10 like a superhorse rather than him holding on barely for life beating some forgettable horse by a diminishing nose.

I would also recommend Victor to start riding at Belmont, get really used to that surface and track, that could be the difference between winning and losing, there's no reason for him to NOT ride there, this is a chance that only comes down the pike once in a very long time.

But, is he smart enough to ride there for the next few weeks, or will he show up on Belmont Stakes day and ride 1 undercard race before he gets a leg up?

Oh brother....
Let me run a couple stats by you.
If,( and it's a HUGE If ) California Chrome wins the Belmont {Triple Crown} it will be his sixth stakes win of his 3yo season.
The only Triple Crown winner in history who will of had more stakes wins at the same point of his 3yo season would be Citation(Citation had like a gazillion stakes wins at the same point).
In this day and age of fragile thoroughbreds this would be quite an accomplishment.
Also....
If CC wins the TC he will of defeated more horses in the three race sequence than any other previous winner.
Like I said.....It's a big If.
I'm just trying to untwist some of the worst Pretzel Logic I have ever read on this board.

[Smarty Cide]

something always goes wrong at belmont

[tucker6]

something always goes wrong at belmont
except for the 11 times it didn't.

[razorback5]

What if CC gets a bad break and gets shuffled to the back of the pack? Could he overcome a bad break?

[bks]

Riders will make sure CC will earn it..

Victor Espinoza is not Stewart Elliot. I doubt the rider will get the horse beat.

[JustRalph]

What if CC gets a bad break and gets shuffled to the back of the pack? Could he overcome a bad break?

Ask War Emblem.......same jock

[PaceAdvantage]

won't it be the 12th??No, CC is that good, they'll give him an extra TC trophy...

[Grits]

He's so good, Visa may even come back to the Triple Crown with their 5 MILL bonus. Just for C.Cal.

[menifee]

He's so good, Visa may even come back to the Triple Crown with their 5 MILL bonus. Just for C.Cal.


This lucky fan will win 1 mil dollars courtesy of Santa Anita if CC wins the Belmont. I'm rooting for him.

http://www.santaanita.com/press/pressrelease/2014/04/lucky-fan-edward-espinoza-wins-chance-take-1-million-triple-crown-bonus

[Dark Horse]

Great to see Victor ride in such an experienced way. I know it's legal, but Borel is still a dirty rider where it comes to getting out of the gate to cut off and box in big favorites. He tried it again, but Victor was already out of the way.

The Preakness did show how to beat CC, though. Even if Victor has him perfectly positioned again, if a horse attacks too early down the backstretch, CC will have to go with him... And if the pace is fast that will open the door wide to closers.

[onefast99]

Social Inclusion shipping to Belmont. :eek:

[bks]

The Preakness did show how to beat CC, though. Even if Victor has him perfectly positioned again, if a horse attacks too early down the backstretch, CC will have to go with him...

Agree and disagree. This may in fact be the way to beat him (by committee), but why does he have to go with the challenger? If it's too soon for CC to move, it's too soon for the challenger to move. You just have to have the stones to wait another 1/ 16 or 1/8 before attacking.

[Grits]

This lucky fan will win 1 mil dollars courtesy of Santa Anita if CC wins the Belmont. I'm rooting for him.

http://www.santaanita.com/press/pressrelease/2014/04/lucky-fan-edward-espinoza-wins-chance-take-1-million-triple-crown-bonus

How truly fine is THIS! Great for Edward! If they update the story--his having watched CCal win the Derby and yesterday's Preakness, both at Santa Anita, please post an update.

Here's hoping 72 year old Edward, who goes to the track every Saturday with his sister and his niece, comes back on Belmont Day and wins a cool ONE MILLION bonus!! ;)

Has anyone ever seen that cheaply run, pseudo turkey processing plant, commonly known as Churchill Downs offer anything like this to fans? ....Hell no.

[BetHorses!]

Don't tell me that was n't a lucky break !
Ride on Curlin infringed by weakening Social Inclusion just when he was going to unleash the final effort to beat CC on the wire.
Could he have escaped ?
A Zenyatta thriller was in the make.


:D

Never catching CC yesterday

[cosmicway]

:D

Never catching CC yesterday

It was going to be anything from three quarters to dead heat.

[BetHorses!]

It was going to be anything from three quarters to dead heat.

I respectfully disagree. Watch again...and I bet Ride on Curlin !

[SecretAgentMan]

It was going to be anything from three quarters to dead heat.


ROC will get another shot at Chrome in the Belmont.......

[BetHorses!]

Longshot ....Little Daddy

[depalma113]

Ask War Emblem.......same jock

War Emblem fell to his knees. Since he never won a race without leading wire to wire and folded like a cheap tent when he didn't get the lead, it was quite obvious his shot was over one step out of the gate. How do you hang that on the rider?

[goatchaser]

Smarty won the Preakness by 12 CC by 1 1/2. IMHO Smarty would have won but Rock Hard Ten and Eddington uncharacteristically got into a speed dual. I hope they make CC earn it.

The horse just won the biggest 3 yo race (Kty Derby) the Preakness wheeling back in 2 weeks. Now 3 weeks later running in a mile and 1/2 race against fresh horses. And you hope they make him Earn it? Don't understand some peoples thinking. So if he's up near the lead out of trouble because others can't keep up with him he's not deserving? That's like saying if they don't bump the hell out of him pin him in on the rail..box him the whole way....it was a gimme win.

I guess Secretariat's win was a gimme as he had 20 lengths on the field turning for home.

[LottaKash]

Victor Espinoza is not Stewart Elliot. I doubt the rider will get the horse beat.

I agree with that....In fact, I watched and replayed Espinoza's ride in the "Preakness", and that was about one of the best calculated rides I have ever seen in the TC races....VE, with 4 distinct moves, moved CC to exactly where he wanted to be by the 1/4...It was fascinating to watch him get to that "very place"...

[JustRalph]

War Emblem fell to his knees. Since he never won a race without leading wire to wire and folded like a cheap tent when he didn't get the lead, it was quite obvious his shot was over one step out of the gate. How do you hang that on the rider?

He panicked in my opine. Rushed up, but I agree, without the lead WE wasn't winning. I can only assume that Victor wouldn't be so panicked with this horse. He's proved he can run behind other horses.

[SecretAgentMan]

IMO, if Chrome does lose, its to Danza or Wicked Strong.......then again, I don't see Pletcher winning the Belmont stakes 2 years in a row but Danza is his best shot.

Just like Real Quiet & Smarty Jones jockeys making premature moves, its Chromes race to lose & as long as Espinoza doesn't make any terrible mistakes, he can win it all........

[Tom]

Social Inclusion shipping to Belmont. :eek:
Why is that?
No one in Baltimore can hand him his ass again? :D

He reminded me of Sham's Belmont.
I think that race should be one you point to when you want to explain what class is.

[NY BRED]

one thing is certain there will be some home boys who have raced
over Old Sandy which might make this race more challenging
to CC especially at the longer distance.

[BlueChip@DRF]

IMO, if Chrome does lose, its to Danza or Wicked Strong.......then again, I don't see Pletcher winning the Belmont stakes 2 years in a row but Danza is his best shot.

Just like Real Quiet & Smarty Jones jockeys making premature moves, its Chromes race to lose & as long as Espinoza doesn't make any terrible mistakes, he can win it all........

Or the "other CC" might take it.

The Belmont turn is one thing that a lot of riders outside of the NY circuit makes a mistake on. Belmont's turns are a full furlong longer than a majority of the tracks in the US. Just like the stretch, the turns seem to go on forever. And they aren't as sharp as the 1-mile ovals, so a strong sweeping outside move is not nullified as it would be at smaller tracks.

[precocity]

Social Inclusion ???? he faded like a cheap suit in the Preakness ride on curling said get the hell out of the way! like danza but could be the best friends CC AND ROC AGAIN.

[onefast99]

Social Inclusion ???? he faded like a cheap suit in the Preakness ride on curling said get the hell out of the way! like danza but could be the best friends CC AND ROC AGAIN.
He never ran his race. He folded and held on for third. 2 black types in Grade 1's out of 4 lifetime starts one a classic, that's one bad horse!

[precocity]

He never ran his race. He folded and held on for third. 2 black types in Grade 1's out of 4 lifetime starts one a classic, that's one bad horse!
A distant third? he will be running against goldencents soon?

[Thomas Roulston]

California Chrome

DP = 7-5-10-0-0
DI = 3.40
CD = 0.86


Tonalist

DP = 5-13-14-1-1
DI = 2.78
CD = 0.59


Who would you rather have your money on at a mile and a half?

[clocker7]

The Belmont turn is one thing that a lot of riders outside of the NY circuit makes a mistake on. Belmont's turns are a full furlong longer than a majority of the tracks in the US. Just like the stretch, the turns seem to go on forever. And they aren't as sharp as the 1-mile ovals, so a strong sweeping outside move is not nullified as it would be at smaller tracks.
Could you explain the bolded part?

[SecretAgentMan]

California Chrome

DP = 7-5-10-0-0
DI = 3.40
CD = 0.86


Tonalist

DP = 5-13-14-1-1
DI = 2.78
CD = 0.59


Who would you rather have your money on at a mile and a half?


Tonalists DP is impressive..........I want to see his past performances. Then again, when its the Belmont stakes, it doesn't matter how they've run before having longshots like D Tara, Birdstone, Sarava win.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Could you explain the bolded part?

The Belmont turns are not as sharp as other race tracks, so not too much ground is lost going a bit wide on the turns.

[clocker7]

The Belmont turns are not as sharp as other race tracks, so not too much ground is lost going a bit wide on the turns.
Have you ever done the math of a half circle for this situation?

Presume that one horse is 5 feet outside another all away around a turn (of a radius of R)

Distance for horse on inside path is Dist1 = pi x (R)
Distance for horse on next path is Dist2 = pi x (R + 5) = p x (R) + pi x 5

So, it doesn't matter what size radius is used, the answer always is that the extra distance traveled by horse #2 equals 5pi feet.

[Rex Phinney]

I'm not sure either of you is right on the corner thing, it would seem to me that a horse on the outside is traveling further, always. And that the longer the turn took the more of a disadvantage the outside horse should encounter.

But, if the argument is that the outside horse has less chance to be swung too wide there may be some merit, because the turns are less sharp there is less chance a horse for whatever reason might end up 2 or 3 paths outside his competitor.

[onefast99]

A distant third? he will be running against goldencents soon?
The next time you play a horse to show or a trifecta make sure they take out extra money because the horse finished a "distant" third....

[BlueChip@DRF]

Have you ever done the math of a half circle for this situation?

Presume that one horse is 5 feet outside another all away around a turn (of a radius of R)

Distance for horse on inside path is Dist1 = pi x (R)
Distance for horse on next path is Dist2 = pi x (R + 5) = p x (R) + pi x 5

So, it doesn't matter what size radius is used, the answer always is that the extra distance traveled by horse #2 equals 5pi feet.


It's what I see. I've been going to Belmont Park since I was 8 and that would make it more than 30 years of observation. The only other track I can compare it to is The Meadowlands 1-mile track. Those turns at the Meadowlands are sharp when compared.

2006 Belmont (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqU6BdVu7hk)
From 12:00 to 12:20 can you tell where the field is from that camera angle?

[precocity]

The next time you play a horse to show or a trifecta make sure they take out extra money because the horse finished a "distant" third....
I think SI is a good horse and I think his best distance right now would be 1/16 when he matures a little bit maybe 1/18. I JUST STATED THE FACTS HE WAS A DISTANT THIRD? HELL HE MIGHT BE GREAT AT A MILE?

[lamboguy]

SOCIAL INCLUSION is probably a real nice horse. he came out on the track real nervous, looked uncomfortable, and still got third.

when horses run its like going in the ring to fight a fight. if i had to walk into a ring and fight Mohamed Ali, i would be more than nervous. if Ali pounds my head into submission, i would be more than afraid to walk in that ring. its the same with horses, you beat up on a horse and over match him, he becomes a chicken no matter who he runs against. keep doing to a horse and all you will have left is a piece of meat.

this probably has happened to RIA ANTONIA by now. will it happen to SOCIAL INCLUSION, time will tell. if he was my horse i would have had him in the Peter Pan instead of the Preakness. but so far the people that manage the show with SOCIAL INCLUSION are on a text book course on how to ruin a very good horse.

[onefast99]

I think SI is a good horse and I think his best distance right now would be 1/16 when he matures a little bit maybe 1/18. I JUST STATED THE FACTS HE WAS A DISTANT THIRD? HELL HE MIGHT BE GREAT AT A MILE?
He was washed out before they loaded him into the gate just like he was in the Wood, I just stated that he was third whether it was by a neck or 50 lengths he was third. He does need to mature a lot, he has had 4 races in his life thus far due to him being a May foal. I like his upside potential. The connections may use blinkers to get to the front a bit quicker like Ruler On Ice did sitting 1 length off Shackleford before he took the lead for good in the stretch.

[Mad Scientist]

Payouts and handicapping are totally different things . Of course if your going to collect a payout than it does not matter if the horse finishes a nose out or 50 lengths out, but if your handicapping a race than of course you have to factor in whether the horse finished a nose out or 50 lengths.

Every speed figure is calculated off how far the horse finished from the winner and very little if any weight is put towards what place the horse came in.

If you really did not ready know all this than I would suggest you get one of the many good handicapping books out there and they will explain to you why it matters how many lengths behind the winner a horse was.

[clocker7]

Today's gallop:

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/theraces/california-chrome-stronger-belmont-stakes-blog-entry-1.1804185

"It’s amazing but I think he just keeps getting stronger,” assistant trainer Alan Sherman said on Saturday morning. “He keeps bouncing out of these races so fast it’s kind of scary actually. He’s just doing so good. Right now, I’ve got no concerns on the way he’s training and feeling so everything is going perfect right now, knock on wood.

California Chrome went for his usual mile and-three-quarter mile gallop this morning at Belmont Park, which was labeled sealed and good from heavy Friday night rains, finishing well through the lane under exercise rider Willie Delgado.

“Yeah that’s the way he gallops all the time,” Sherman said. “He kind of loafs the first mile and then decides, ‘Okay lets get serious, grabs the bridle and pulls Willie around there’.”

[Thomas Roulston]

Well who's laughing now?

Dr. Roman, for one.

[clocker7]

Not sure that a close victory is anything to crow about. Remember all those (losing) experts who warned not to take anything away from open distance wins in the KD and Preakness? :D

This is a nice crop that shows some talent and distance aptitude, and looked like they actually belonged in a race like this. And depth. If you want to knock something, reload the video from last year's race. It was a crawl to the finish line, and the eyeball test between 2013 and 2014 is in favor of the latter.