View Full Version : Preakness 2014 Analysis

05-17-2014, 05:44 AM
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/8.jpg Social Inclusion (5-2)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/3.jpg California Chrome (9-2)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/10.jpg Ride On Curlin (9-1)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/7.jpg Kid Cruz (10-1)

OK, so Wicked Strong couldn't get it done in the Derby, but I'm a stubborn SOB and my desire for value hasn't waned a bit, so naturally, if I didn't like California Chrome at 5/2 in the Derby, I'm certainly not going to like him at odds-on in the Preakness.

Which leaves me with only one bullet in this race, and that's Social Inclusion. He joins the Triple Crown in the second leg, coming off a third place finish in the Wood Memorial. And he's an excellent bet if he goes off anywhere near his 5-1 morning line odds. He should get the lead on a track that should be kind to speed. He is the last great hope for those who like to claim that the Wood was the best Triple Crown prep race this year, and I think he upsets the favorite today.

On second thought, I might have another bullet in this race, but this one is a much smaller projectile, and that's Kid Cruz. I like this horse because this race has been tagged a "Fast Pace" race by TimeformUS.com (http://www.timeformus.com) , meaning closers do have a shot. And Kid Cruz is clearly the best closer judging by the TimeformUS numbers. I have him at 10-1 on my line, and he should go off at about that price or higher.

Ride On Curlin is the second best closer in the race, not all that far behind Kid Cruz in the closer department, but he figures to go off below my line of 9-1, so he doesn't represent much value.

Honorable mention in the value department goes to Bayern, who is my fifth choice at value odds of 11-1. He will likely offer better odds than that, and is worth watching on the board if indeed that is the case.

So, my win bets will concentrate on Social Inclusion and Kid Cruz, and I will craft some exactas with these two along with all the rest I mentioned and hope I can make a little cheese in this, the second jewel of the Triple Crown.