Sire stats

[Harvhorse]

I have been compilling a list of sire stats, am using the data in the Bris Ultra pp`s. I have found that progony of outstandig mud sires win 20% but those of excellent turf sires win only 15% of races. I have been thinking about the cause of this disparity and the only thing I can rationilize is that fields in wet track races may be smaller thus producing higher percentage of winners. Any thoughts on this? Another thing I found interesting is that a lot of the outstanding turf sires are also good with mud runners. This seems counter intuitive to me as common wizdom is that good turf horses have wide saucer shaped hoofs but good wet track runners should have smaller hoofs that cut thru the slop to the firmer footing underneath. Any opinions on this disparity?


"Life is 6/5 against"

[DeltaLover]

I have been compilling a list of sire stats, am using the data in the Bris Ultra pp`s. I have found that progony of outstandig mud sires win 20% but those of excellent turf sires win only 15% of races. I have been thinking about the cause of this disparity and the only thing I can rationilize is that fields in wet track races may be smaller thus producing higher percentage of winners. Any thoughts on this? Another thing I found interesting is that a lot of the outstanding turf sires are also good with mud runners. This seems counter intuitive to me as common wizdom is that good turf horses have wide saucer shaped hoofs but good wet track runners should have smaller hoofs that cut thru the slop to the firmer footing underneath. Any opinions on this disparity?


"Life is 6/5 against"

Raw percentages do not represent a useful metric and should be avoided as they tend to confuse the handicapper who tries to form an opinion based on them.

A much better way to measure the significance of a handicapping factor is to use chi square testing and you can find a lot of postings in this site referring to them.

More than this, you should always keep in mind that with really counts for betting purposes, is not to discover a significant angle just from a pure winning perspective.

As bettors, what we really care is how a specific angle is perceived by the crowd regardless of whether it affects the winning percentage of a horse or not.

This is why your expected values should not be calculated based in the number of horses fitting or not the angle, but the winning percentage as it is estimated by the final odds of each starter.