Honestly ...

[clocker7]

For many, I get that you have reasonable doubts about this colt. Not a problem, it's the nature of the game.

So in that vein, at what odds would California Chrome become an overlay for you? Truly?

[ten2oneormore]

IMO Chrome should be about 2-1 and Social Inclusion around 3-1.

One is going to be less than even money and one is likely to be upward of 4-1.

[Mad Scientist]

I think at 6/5 Chrome becomes a overlay.

You honestly believe that if you look at Chromes last 3 races and compare them to the 3 career races of SI that Chrome should be 2/1 and SI should be 3/1 ?

Chromes last 3 ....

Won San Felipe in a walkover

Won Santa Anita Derby in a walkover

Won Kentucky Derby in a walkover

SI last 3 ....

Won maiden race in a walkover

Won allowance race in a walkover

Finishes third in Wood Memorial

Let's look at their common foes ....

Wicked Strong ...

He dusted SI

He got dusted by Chrome

Samarat ....

He beat SI by a nose

He got dusted by Chrome

Intangibles ...

SI faded at 1 1/8

Chrome would not have blown out a candle after 1 1/4

SI coming off a foot bruise that caused him to miss a race just a week ago.

Chrome as fit as he has ever been according to trainers.

After taking all this into account and summoning up all your handicapping abilities you decided that a accurate morning line would be Chrome 2/1 and SI 3/1 ???

I am assuming your not a newbie to horse racing, since your on this site. You sir have just convinced me of something that I have not been able to convince myself of in 20 years of playing the horses. I can actually make a career of betting horses.

[ten2oneormore]

I can actually make a career of betting horses.

please try

[BlueChip@DRF]

I can actually make a career of betting horses.

Noobs at the track always say that after their very first win.

[onefast99]

I think at 6/5 Chrome becomes a overlay.

You honestly believe that if you look at Chromes last 3 races and compare them to the 3 career races of SI that Chrome should be 2/1 and SI should be 3/1 ?

Chromes last 3 ....

Won San Felipe in a walkover

Won Santa Anita Derby in a walkover

Won Kentucky Derby in a walkover

SI last 3 ....

Won maiden race in a walkover

Won allowance race in a walkover

Finishes third in Wood Memorial

Let's look at their common foes ....

Wicked Strong ...

He dusted SI

He got dusted by Chrome

Samarat ....

He beat SI by a nose

He got dusted by Chrome

Intangibles ...

SI faded at 1 1/8

Chrome would not have blown out a candle after 1 1/4

SI coming off a foot bruise that caused him to miss a race just a week ago.

Chrome as fit as he has ever been according to trainers.

After taking all this into account and summoning up all your handicapping abilities you decided that a accurate morning line would be Chrome 2/1 and SI 3/1 ???

I am assuming your not a newbie to horse racing, since your on this site. You sir have just convinced me of something that I have not been able to convince myself of in 20 years of playing the horses. I can actually make a career of betting horses.
You missed the foes CC faced before the Derby, don't you remember any of them?

[letswastemoney]

Different circumstances require different analysis.

You have to account how many lengths Social Inclusion lost while getting hung wide on the first turn of the Wood Memorial.

[bgbootha]

6/5 would force me to bet on CC. I think even money is a fair line, but I think he will obviously be much closer to 2/5.

I am in the camp that thinks CC is the best horse in the field. But in this game that doesn't always mean he will win. He is still racing against Grade 1 company. A bad day by CC or a good day by someone else could spring an upset.

That being said, you give me 6/5. I am all over it.

[onefast99]

Different circumstances require different analysis.

You have to account how many lengths Social Inclusion lost while getting hung wide on the first turn of the Wood Memorial.
Please don't bring facts into these threads, the CC crew aka CCC won't have any of that. :mad:

[BettinBilly]

Took Chrome 4/1 at the Derby with the TVG Odds Boost.
I'll take him again at the Preakness with a 3/2 Odds Boost guarantee - and I hope that gets enriched by post time.

I just don't typically bet on Chalk. I Exotic around Chalk, yes, but Straight up? No.

[Rex Phinney]

Chrome would not have blown out a candle after 1 1/4

Chrome as fit as he has ever been according to trainers.



Dude you have to quit believing everything they tell you on the internet. It's embarrassing.

Seriously use your own brain, we hear these kinds of things every year after the Derby.